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- Aug 12, 2016
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Round 4 Preview – Thursday 06 April 7.35pm(AEST) Gabba
Brisbane Lions v Collingwood Magpies
Hopefully the Gabba have got their lighting issues under control for this one otherwise it will be a blood bath at the Gabba.
Should be pretty much a sell out for this one for what will more than likely be the biggest home crowd of the year.
Coming up against arguably the most inform team of the year so far with 3 wins and a percentage of 149.5 and sitting second on the ladder they will be coming into this one with their confidence sky high.
The Lions on the other hand will be rocked by a performance last week against a spirited Bulldogs, where the Lions could barely hit a target in general play and kicking for goal was even worse if that is even possible. Forwards unable to make a contest and a misfiring midfield particularly at centre bounce.
Injury lists – Lions will likely have a pretty full compliment of players to choose from bar Darcy Gardiner who may still need another week or 2 on the side lines to recover from an ankle/Achilles issue. Will be a bit of a watch to see if Daniel Rich will be available after a quad issue last week.
For Collingwood - They will likely be without both of their Ruckman in Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox so Dan McStay and maybe Billy Frampton may be thrown in there to compete with Oscar??
Last time we met – after a shaky start the lions come away with a 7 point victory in that game at the Gabba
Highlights of that game -
We have had a pretty good run of late against Collingwood with wins in 4 of the last five since 2019.
| 2022 | R5 | Brisbane Lions | 3.2 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 15.8 | (98) | dftd | Collingwood | 5.2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 14.7 | (91) | Gabba | Apr 14 (Thu 7:35pm) |
| 2021 | R22 | Brisbane Lions | 4.2 | 11.4 | 18.6 | 22.10 | (142) | dftd | Collingwood | 3.2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 8.9 | (57) | Gabba | Aug 14 (Sat 7:25pm) |
| 2021 | R3 | Collingwood | 4.2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 11.6 | (72) | lost to | Brisbane Lions | 2.1 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | (73) | Marvel Stadium | Apr 1 (Thu 7:40pm) |
| 2020 | R15 | Brisbane Lions | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | (42) | dftd | Collingwood | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | (34) | Gabba | Sep 4 (Fri 7:50pm) |
| 2019 | R5 | Brisbane Lions | 3.2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 8.13 | (61) | lost to | Collingwood | 7.5 | 8.9 | 16.12 | 18.15 | (123) | Gabba | Apr 18 (Thu 7:35pm) |
Early Season Form- Collingwood -
Well they have started the year on fire really, they tend to play a pretty fast and chaotic brand of footy which is all well and good when it is up and going but I also think it can lead to their downfall with a good defensive structure. They bite off some extremely dangerous kicks into the middle of the ground, often putting their players under a heap of pressure to make it work and at the moment, more often than not it is working and they get away with it - just.
But the Gabba is a bit smaller than the MCG where they have played all 3 of their games so far this year so those kicks will be even more dangerous up here under lights at the Gabba in slightly greasy conditions.
There is no doubting they are confident team who is playing on instinct and having fun doing it, so Brisbane will have their work cut out for them to stop the Pies current run.
I think they have come into the season primed for a good start to the year Under Macrae, with a win in their first game against the Premiers last year (Geelong) I think some redemption for the qualifying loss to them in last years finals series front of mind and driving them through the preseason and after the win in Round 1 are riding a wave of confidence and I feel they have a sense of invincibility about them at the moment which is waiting to be smashed back down to Earth with a thud. Watching a couple of their games they seem to be very chirpy and hoping we can wipe the smiles off their faces.
Early Season Form – The Lions have had only the 1 win against Melbourne in round 2 and a loss against the Power and the Bulldogs.
The 2 losses were both different in that the Port game was a complete blowout where the Lions effort wasn’t there right from the first bounce of the day and it was only free kicks keeping the Lions on the game to half time but after the half the Umpire tried the best to even up the free kick count but a completely indefensible effort across the board resulted in a terrible way to start the year in a 50odd point loss. Against the Bulldogs I personally felt as though the effort and intensity was there but the skill execution was the biggest let down of the night and The Bont was just too good for us in the middle of the ground in particular. His height was something that our boys struggled all night to stop.
The win against Melbourne was the only game at the Gabba and the only game where we got things right, the pressure was good, we won the ball in the centre and our Ruckman, forwards and backs were competitive all night and hit the contest hard unlike the other 2 games.
Forgetting the Port game and the last 12 minutes after the Power outage I think our defence has held up pretty well holding the doggies to 63 points and Melbourne to 51 point before the power outage.
The defence is going to have to hold up really well this week because this will likely be the biggest test yet with the way that Collingwood move the ball.
Head to head stats, for this year so far:
| Lions | Average | Magpies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Comparison | ||
205.3 | Kicks | 222.3 |
107.3 | Handballs | 152.3 |
312.7 | Disposals | 374.7 |
80.3 | Marks | 83.0 |
10.7 | Goals | 16.0 |
8.7 | Behinds | 11.6 |
19.4 | Scoring Shots | 27.6 |
49.0 | Tackles | 56.3 |
42.7 | Hitouts | 38.0 |
23.0 | Frees For | 26.0 |
17.0 | Frees Against | 21.0 |
5.7 | Goal Assists | 14.0 |
49.0 | Inside 50s | 59.3 |
133.3 | Contested Possessions | 150.3 |
171.0 | Uncontested Possessions | 216.7 |
217.3 | Effective Disposals | 269.0 |
69.5% | Disposal Efficiency % | 71.8% |
60.3 | Clangers | 61.3 |
9.0 | Contested Marks | 11.3 |
9.7 | Marks Inside 50 | 13.3 |
43.7 | Clearances | 40.0 |
12.7 | Centre Clearances | 13.3 |
31.0 | Stoppage Clearances | 26.7 |
42.0 | Rebound 50s | 33.3 |
52.3 | One Percenters | 53.3 |
0.7 | Bounces | 5.3 |
1.91 | Kick to Handball Ratio | 1.46 |
55.2% | Conversion | 58.0% |
29.22 | Disposals Per Goal | 23.42 |
16.12 | Disposals Per Scoring Shot | 13.58 |
55.2% | Metres Gained | 58.0% |
74.0 | Turnovers | 61.3 |
65.7 | Intercepts | 67.0 |
9.3 | Tackles Inside 50 | 10.0 |
A quick look across the stats and they are pretty damning for us really, thanks largely to the Port game where we could barely get our hands on the ball. So they are a little misleading but a couple of things that really stand out is our inability to score this year is really a turnaround to previous years. And Collingwoods ability to score so freely.
And the contested possession differential is a really worrying sign for us in the 2 losing games so far this year. The Melbourne game was good.
It is pretty much our side really, if our midfield turns up we are a competitive top 4 quality team but when they are off we are a bottom 4 team. The difference between our best and worst is probably the worst in the comp so far this year.
We need to get back to a consistent brand of footy and a consistent frame of mind week to week because if we don’t this year could slip away very quickly.
Collingwood are a very good team and playing brilliant team footy for each other and for their Coach something that we seem to be lacking.
There has been a lot of change this year with some coaches swapping around and probably on average 5-6 changes to the regular 22 from last year and most of them coming in the backline. Which appears to be a reasonably good thing defensively but it is the offensive side of the game where things appear to be falling apart and the ability to live the ball from end to end. So things may take a bit of time to gel but as we sore in the Melbourne game when we get it right we are a bloody good team and worthy of Premiership contention.
Players to watch out for - Jamie Elliot and Brodie Mihocek are the 2 in the forward line that we will need to watch closely along with DeGoey when he is up there who kicked 4 goals the last time we met.
DeGoey, forever young Pendles and Jack Crisp who had 36 disposals in the Easter Thursday game last year playing in the midfield.
And then we have the Daicos boys who the AFL have an infatuation for at the moment get their hands on the ball A LOT and create a lot of damage with their disposals. Will be interesting to see if we pull a forward up to stoppage to curb Nick influence because they always seem to have an outnumber at stoppage but pulling him up to the ball. So if we keep our 6 forward of the ball and win the contest and get the ball forward we would have an outnumber. So it’s a bit of a balancing act and I think that to start with atleast we will run with our forward 6 and hope our mids can gain the ascendancy.
For the life of me, I really hope we do not let McStay off the chain or that will really piss me off.
Call me crazy – but I think we can win for 1 reason and 1 reason only.
Because it is at the Gabba. If this game was at the G I honestly don’t think we stand a chance. We are a completely different team when we play away than when we play at the Gabba.
I think it will be a fairly high scoring and exciting game like they usually are against these two teams at the Gabba hopefully with the Lions coming out on top.
Starting 22 for me:
B: Rayner, Payne, Starcevich
HB: McKenna, Andrews, Rich
C: Ashcroft, Berry, McCluggage
HF: Zorko, Hipwood, Bailey
F: Cameron, Daniher, Gunston
R: O’Mac, Neale, Dunkley
I: Coleman, Wilmot, McCarthy, Prior
Sub: AhChee or Dev
Lions by Plenty
Ahhh, ok maybe just by a goal or so.
Current Odds: Lions $ 2.00 Collingwood deserved favourites at $ 1.84
Enjoy the game and gamble responsibly.
And have a Happy Easter
