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Round 9

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TownleyTime said:
Only speculative value I can see is Richmond. Watson has been ruled out & Hocking will cop weeks on end. Don't know the status of Stanton but 1 advantage Richmond already has is there midfield.
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add Hurley to that list and Essendon is way too short when you consider our three top mids and our best KPP will be missing.
 

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Reckon the Blues are good value. They play well against Cats.

Saints will smash us. Line will be about 15. Load up

Port might be value to lead at half time. They do seem to start quite well.

Brisbane game will depend on JB returning. If he plays back the lions.

Agree Bombers are ripe for the picking. Maybe a line bet for the tiges.

Adelaide did well last year against pies. Maybe if the line is near 50.

Sydney own Hawthorn in Sydney

If Embley and Kerr play i will be loading up on eagles.
 
I think West Coast is super value with or without the inclusion of Kerr/Embley. I would back the Eagles against nearly every other team at Patterson. They will lose a maximum of 1 game there this season (Geelong has the best chance to beat them in Rnd 16). No one listened to me last week when I picked em over Freo and maybe no one will listen to me this week, but I'll be loading up.
 
Demon3 said:
Reckon the Blues are good value. They play well against Cats.

Saints will smash us. Line will be about 15. Load up

Port might be value to lead at half time. They do seem to start quite well.

Brisbane game will depend on JB returning. If he plays back the lions.

Agree Bombers are ripe for the picking. Maybe a line bet for the tiges.

Adelaide did well last year against pies. Maybe if the line is near 50.

Sydney own Hawthorn in Sydney

If Embley and Kerr play i will be loading up on eagles.
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That is not true at all they only play well against the Cats at the MCG, Carlton have not actually beaten Geelong at Etihad since 2003 and thats only as far as i can find. Its also been by an average losing margin of a whopping 52 points.
 
Vod Ka Nockers said:
That is not true at all they only play well against the Cats at the MCG, Carlton have not actually beaten Geelong at Etihad since 2003 and thats only as far as i can find. Its also been by an average losing margin of a whopping 52 points.
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Plus there's that stat about teams coming off the bye which is gaining a little bit of traction now that we have completed a few rounds.
 
TAB AFL Round 7 Multibet

Geelong: Margin 1-39 = $2.20
St.Kilda: TriBet: 15.5 Points = $1.97
Fremantle: TriBet: 15.5 Points = $2.00

Total = $8.66 x $25 = $216.50
 
Also dont be so quick to count Adelaide out here, they are one of the teams along with Hawthorn that really worry and push the Pies right to the end of every game they play. Last 2 games these to teams have played they played at the MCG and Collingwood have won by an average of 4 points. Not the 1.05 favourites they should be.
 
Early thoughts this week:

St. Kilda H2H @ 1.5
Adelaide +48.5 @ 1.9
Richmond + 18.5 @ 1.9
West Coast H2H @ 1.75
Geelong 16 or more @ 1.93
Sydney over 24.5 @ 3.1
= $57
 

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Not sold on Richmond. They beat North, Brisbane in Melbourne and Freo in Melbourne. They've come a long way but those wins are not that impressive. Yes I know we've beaten GC and West Coast in Melbourne but we've also destroyed a full strength Dogs team, pushed Collingwood and won interstate. Also feel losing Watson won't be as bad as it could be given that we're going up against a young bodied midfield. So guys like Lonergan and Howlett will be okay without Jobe.

Add to this the thumping Richmond got last week, meaning lots of that confidence they gathered will be gone. And with such a young side confidence is crucial. Can see why people might see Richmond as value, but i'd be pretty confident backing us in. Especially with the bye coming up, meaning we can afford to run and hit hard all game.
 
Richmond concede a lot of points so if the weather is not diabolical and Essendons team total line is below 120 than I will definately put a few units on. So far I have:

1.5U BRIS 1Q ML @1.97 (Sportsbet)
1.5U WCE -3.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet).
 
The Big Woofer said:
Early thoughts:

Syd excellent value $1.90 v haw in syd, haw lose 2 more important players.

Carl $2.65 decent value v geelong, carl actually match up ok & geel were really up for that game last fri, its possible they have a slight let down this week.

No way freo should be $1.45 on the road right now, only problem is their opponent is Port $2.70....i think port are over the odds.
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Yep Big Woofer I agree with all of these, particularly Sydney.

I also think Richmond is good value at $3 and +16pts at $2.10 is THE BET OF THE ROUND imo.

Watson, Hocking, Hurley out, Stanton also? I think Richmond are going alright and will match up decently on Essendon who might be a little flat.
 

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Rough_Edges said:
Get on the Dogs to make top 4 this week @ $5 before they beat the Eagles this week and come into $3.50.
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If that's the basis for your bet, you should just back them to beat the Eagles @ $2.11.
 
Carlton coming off the bye = lethargy early.
Geelong coming off tributes and pregame speeches re the Geelong Flyer = breathing fire early.
I'll back Geelong first to 25 points.

Melbourne are over the odds. I'll take the 2.55 early and hope Lyon drops 14 players.

Sydney play well against the Hawks. Mummy is significantly better than bad boy McEvoy, Roughy will pay a physical price. Kennedy and McGlynn will love showing the Hawks which midfield is harder.

Tigers @ $3.00 is way way over the odds. Essendon coming back from interstate, losing 2 of their best 3 mids, plus Hurley, yet to have a bye.

I'll back North once Brown is named and the Roo's drift to $1.85

I'll back WCE if both Kerr & Embley are named ( which is highly unlikely ).

Other games are not overly exciting.
 

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Round 9

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