Rounds 13-17

[caterina]

Reading back through the previews from rounds 1-5 and 6-11, apart from a few extreme optimists and pessimists most had predicted we'd be 6-5 or 7-4 by this point
Can we build on the momentum of our best win of the year today?
My speculative guesses:
Essendon (h) loss
Collingwood (a) loss
Bulldogs (h) win
Melbourne (a) win
GWS (h) win

 

[E Shed]

I was in the depths of pessimism for a while there but I was encouraged last week and delirious this week. I'm starting to like us against Essendon at home. They haven't had much luck at Subi and are showing cracks generally. I mostly agree with the rest of your predictions except I think Melbourne are building now. They are nowhere near as crap as they were playing and showed against Essendon they can play footy. We should have the structures and discipline to handle them but I wouldn't put my house on it.

 

[Moo]

Dons is a big game - 10-6 gives us a massive chance of finals footy

 

[caterina]

Oh i wouldn't put my house on it either, and I live in a shoebox
But really, if we can beat the saints at etihad we should cover melbourne. Essendon, I'm worried about their pace even with Zaharakis or whatever his name is out.

 

[Quokka]

Just really glad we're not going to go 6 straight losses from rounds 8-14, has to be close to the hardest six game stretch we've ever had with the teams, Tassy and 2 visits to the MCG.

Pointless prediction: If we can win either of the next two, Essendon and Collingwood we can win enough to play finals.

 

[estibador]

A few weeks ago I said we had more chance against the Hawks than the Tiges. Good to see my predictions are as accurate as ever.

Anyway, amazing what one unexpected win can do for your outlook. Get past these next two games at 1-1 and we're staring at the kind of run home that can really get a team on a roll.

 

[leungtl]

Looking at form, we should beat the Dons at home. Will be happy just to be competetive against the Pies at the G, but expect to win the next 3.

1/2 wins - Unacceptable
3 wins - Par for the course
4 wins - Very happy
5 wins - Flag contenders

 

[332docker]

Put the essendon game in the bank.

essendon don't win footy in June - last year they didn't win a game - this year dito after playing us

 

[more_of_bito]

Like our chances against the bombers, they've all packed on the kgs, like we did last year to get more stronger and contest more, downside is they're slower.IMO Their high pressure, heavy defensive run game will see them fall away as the season goes on. If its above 20 degrees in Perth reckon they will struggle. Zaharakis is a big loss and removes run for them.

 

[Scham]

Nah, can't see us beating the Bombers unfortunately.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Does anyone know what Essendon's record has been at subi over the last 5 years? IIRC they've been hopeless over here. They've also lost their last 2 games (Both in Melbourne), so they don't exactly have momentum. I imagine they'd start as narrow favourites. Definitely winnable.

I'm heading east for the Collngwood game. It'll be great to see the boys run out at the 'G' but I wouldn't expect a win.

Bulldogs at Home = win

Melbourne away. We should start as narrow favourites but definitely losable.

GWS = Win

I did the ladder predictor and with 3 likely wins, which would put us 9-7 and about 8th or 9th on the ladder. If we can only win 2 we don't deserve to play finals. On the other hand, if we can sneak 4 wins we'll definitely be in the 8 and possibly even 2 games clear of StKilda, Carlton and Richmond.

So in my book, it's the Essendon game that is massively important. If we win, it will be a massive confidence boost and reckon we'll go on to play finals with Fyfe back in the team and Mundy and Barlow at peak fitness which leaves Big pav to stand in the forward 50. If not, we'll be pushing **** uphill.

 

[Macca18]

We last won at Subiaco against you guys back in the middle of 2008. We've played you there twice since in 2009 (54 point loss) & 2011 (34 point loss).

We clearly do not play well at the ground so you should start that game pretty warm favourites. As has often been the case in Perth (against either Fremantle or WCE) our opponents will always start exceptionally well and generally lead by 6-8 goals at Half Time. We will make a little mini run during the second half and may pull the margin back to 3-4 goals during the last quarter but then still end up losing by 6-8 goals. Just like clockwork.

2 wins in a row then and your season will be away & back on track.

 

[wehavethepassion]

Reading back through the previews from rounds 1-5 and 6-11, apart from a few extreme optimists and pessimists most had predicted we'd be 6-5 or 7-4 by this point
Can we build on the momentum of our best win of the year today?
My speculative guesses:
Essendon (h) loss
Collingwood (a) loss
Bulldogs (h) win
Melbourne (a) win
GWS (h) win

we have tigers back here in Rd21 which we will win. disagree we can take the bummers at home

 

[Scham]

Does anyone know what Essendon's record has been at subi over the last 5 years? IIRC they've been hopeless over here. They've also lost their last 2 games (Both in Melbourne), so they don't exactly have momentum. I imagine they'd start as narrow favourites. Definitely winnable.

What was our record at the G before yesterday though? We'd also lost the last 3 games before that so we didn't have momentum either.

 

[pavsbootlace]

We last won at Subiaco against you guys back in the middle of 2008. We've played you there twice since in 2009 (54 point loss) & 2011 (34 point loss).

We clearly do not play well at the ground so you should start that game pretty warm favourites. As has often been the case in Perth (against either Fremantle or WCE) our opponents will always start exceptionally well and generally lead by 6-8 goals at Half Time. We will make a little mini run during the second half and may pull the margin back to 3-4 goals during the last quarter but then still end up losing by 6-8 goals. Just like clockwork.

2 wins in a row then and your season will be away & back on track.

Thanks for that Macca. Don't think we'll start favourites though. Should be a close one though.

 

[pavsbootlace]

What was our record at the G before yesterday though? We'd also lost the last 3 games before that so we didn't have momentum either.

Fair call re: our record at the "g" Scham. But I still think it's a valid point. It's just one of those small things that contributes to a team's performance.

But in terms of momentum, I reckon we got slowly worse from when Fyfe went down until Tasmania. But then,we were much better against WCE than we were against the Hawks and much better against Adelaide than we were against WCE. I was certainly expecting an improved side to take on Richmond. Thankfully, we were better than I expected. The Bombers on the other hand have gone from Giant Killers to Mid table in the space of a fortnight.

If we play like we did yesterday with the possible inclusions of Lower or Morabito to further strengthen the midfield, I reckon we'll give the Bombers a real shake. It could go either way.

I don't know who I'll tip, but it's not a certain win for the Bombers.

 

[BananaOnTheRun]

i'm pretty confident against the dons, mainly as:
they don't travel well, historically
crowley would be getting the shutdown job on watson, who's their heartbeat
our defence is terrific and should be able to handle crameri, hurley and davey
lower and mora are likely to come back, both of whom are hitting their straps
they will be joining barlow, hill, de boer and mundy in the middle, who are also hitting their straps
our forwards are settling
we can play four quarters of high pressure football
our belief would have gone some way to being forged in the fire of the G yesterday.

 

[Wharf]

Damn, i wish Melbourne didn't show up against the Bombers. They'll be hungry for a win so it'll be a huge game. I'll tip us but will be nervous.
Thankfully we are placing the demons at Etihad, they are much better at the G.

 

[bruzaar62]

I recon its a 50/50 game against the Bummers,they have not got a good recent record at Subi,their form has tapered a little in the last few weeks,they have lost Zakarakus from their midfield and i think we have improved in the last couple as well as possibly having a couple of handy editions in Morabito and Lower.The bye has come at a good time for Mundy,Barlow and Zac Clark who will all be able to freshen up

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Fair call re: our record at the "g" Scham. But I still think it's a valid point. It's just one of those small things that contributes to a team's performance.

But in terms of momentum, I reckon we got slowly worse from when Fyfe went down until Tasmania. But then,we were much better against WCE than we were against the Hawks and much better against Adelaide than we were against WCE. I was certainly expecting an improved side to take on Richmond. Thankfully, we were better than I expected. The Bombers on the other hand have gone from Giant Killers to Mid table in the space of a fortnight.

If we play like we did yesterday with the possible inclusions of Lower or Morabito to further strengthen the midfield, I reckon we'll give the Bombers a real shake. It could go either way.

I don't know who I'll tip, but it's not a certain win for the Bombers.

Lyon has clearly been reading my posts on BF and decided to play a far more offensive and agressive game style.

Expect further improvement.

 

[Borry]

We can beat Essendon, as there is a good home ground advantage given their poor record outside Victoria, especially in Perth. They are a better side than last year though, but it's not a certain loss.

Collingwood is probably the only certain loss in this patch of matches.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Put the essendon game in the bank.

essendon don't win footy in June - last year they didn't win a game - this year dito after playing us

I try to look for better reasons to tip or tip against someone, other than what month of the year it is.

If that's your best reason, we're ****ed Tommy, propper ****ed.

 

[Kram]

There's no reason why we shouldn't beat Essendon at home.

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Gone from being absolutely no chance vs Richmond, to being favourites vs Essendon.

Holy shit I love the posters on our board.

I think we can win, but I'll be tipping a loss.

 

[Dockernut]

I'll be intrigued to see how their "run and gun" game goes against our "dour" defence. It didn't fare too well against the Swans for 2 and half quarters (then again they were horribly inaccurate). I think as a few posters have mentioned, they haven't travelled well to Perth recently, so I am very confident.