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Scape Goat Sack Cox

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My concern is Cox trying to implement an outdated game plan that does not work in todays game. The days of pure contested footy are over. Today’s game is built on hard running and numbers around the contest – I think what makes people think it’s all about inside contest is the fact that the dominating teams inevitably come out on top in that area, but it’s because hard running and numbers around the contest is actually conducive to that, it’s an after effect. We were clear 1st despite not dominating the inside battle, that speaks for itself. Brisbane and Geelong didn’t belt us on the inside, they belted us on the outside which ultimately also wins you the inside and pressure battle, and en sue the flogging.

It’s easy to look at the GF’s and pin point our contested ability, but imo that’s not where we lost the game – we actually lost because we DIDN’T play OUR game. In fact I think we completely switched our mentality being a GF and overcompensated our focus on winning the contest on both occasions, which took us away from our fundamental style of run and gun attacking footy. The end result is too much focus on direct opponent, less numbers on the outside, less awareness of where your teammates are, and not being in a position to be progressive with the ball once you've got it. That’s why we went from one woeful GF performance to another, and then to a misdirected GF review to now overcompensating even further in-season. The fix wasn’t the fix, it made it bad then worse. Horse also did it towards the back end of the year when we lost form, it was all about contest, mills and parker came back in to add to that, but it inevitably never got us back on track. The so called problem isn’t really the problem. The result is an over focus on 1 v1 footy, completely stripping the team of it’s assets. Everyone says finals footy is different, but it doesn't have to be. The team who inevitably wins it all wins it playing their way. And we're not the only team susceptible to it either, being finals i also think GWS and port fell into that trap too, hence 2 impressive wins despite us not being in good form at the time.

These kids have grown up playing footy in an era where it’s all about outside run, you can’t just all of a sudden say we’re going to play old school footy. Horse embraced our weapons for the most part, but reigned it back in both GF losses. If Cox continues down this path then we will become a rabble. Imo his focus is completely misdirected, and it also takes away from our players strengths. There’s a reason why most of our wins this year have come against the more dour teams, and why we made average teams look better on the attacking front than what they actually are. Winning Clearances and Contested possies and losing by 90 points is evidence enough for the non believers.

The 3 most important facets of a coach in order are 1. Making the current team play well TODAY based on their strengths, not necessarily what he thinks might be the best way for a team to play in general. 2. Motivating the team to show up. 3. Actually knowing what works in todays game. I can’t speak for 2, but 1 and 3 are completely off. Imo this list is primed, we’ve got the best attacking weapons in the league to play today’s game, at the right age, by quite a stretch and I’ll stand by that. We made a GF playing a certain way when we weren’t even ready in 22, then we made another after 2 years of maturation, it should be no different now. Cox will piss this list down the drain if he continues in this manner.
 
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My concern is Cox trying to implement an outdated game plan that does not work in todays game. The days of pure contested footy are over. Today’s game is built on hard running and numbers around the contest – I think what makes people think it’s all about inside contest is the fact that the dominating teams inevitably come out on top in that area, but it’s because hard running and numbers around the contest is actually conducive to that, it’s an after effect. We were clear 1st despite not dominating the inside battle, that speaks for itself. Brisbane and Geelong didn’t belt us on the inside, they belted us on the outside which ultimately also wins you the inside battle, and en sue the flogging.

It’s easy to look at the GF’s and pin point our contested ability, but imo that’s not where we lost the game – we actually lost because we DIDN’T play OUR game. In fact I think we completely switched our mentality being a GF and overcompensated our focus on winning the contest on both occasions, which took us away from our fundamental style of run and gun attacking footy. That’s why we went from one woeful GF performance to another, and then to a misdirected GF review to now overcompensating even further in-season. The fix wasn’t the fix, it made it bade then worse. Horse also did it towards the back end of the year when we lost form, it was all about contest, mills and parker came back in to add to that, but it inevitably never got us back on track. The so called problem isn’t really the problem. The result is an over focus on 1 v1 footy, completely stripping the team of it’s assets. Everyone says finals footy is different, but it doesn't have to be. The team who inevitably wins it all wins it playing their way.

These kids have grown up playing footy in an era where it’s all about outside run, you can’t just all of a sudden say we’re going to play old school footy. Horse embraced our weapons for the most part, but reigned it back in both GF losses. If Cox continues down this path then we will become a rabble. Imo his focus is completely misdirected, and it also takes away from our players strengths. There’s a reason why most of our wins this year have come against the more dour teams, and why we made average teams look better on the attacking front than what they actually are. And we're not the only team susceptible to it either, being finals i also think GWS and port fell into that trap too, hence 2 impressive wins despite us not being in good form at the time.

The 3 most important facets of a coach in order are 1. Making the current team play well TODAY based on their strengths, not necessarily what he thinks might be the best way for a team to play in general. 2. Motivating the team to show up. 3. Actually knowing what works in todays game. I can’t speak for 2, but 1 and 3 are completely off. Imo this list is primed, we’ve got the best attacking weapons in the league to play today’s game, at the right age, by quite a stretch and I’ll stand by that. We made a GF playing a certain way when we weren’t even ready in 22, then we made another after 2 years of maturation, it should be no different now. Cox will piss this list down the drain if he continues in this manner.

Yep.
When we’ve looked bad over the past few years, it’s when the other team always seems to have an extra number at every 50/50 ball.
 
NO!

Haven't followed the thread discussion, but:

it's the list - not the coach, and we might be wooden spooners in 2025.

We have a club Board that just wants to suck up to AFL House in Melbourne.

Problem: it's the Swans Board, not the coach. They are AFL suck-ups, who wouldn't stand up for the club on COLA.

Off you go A.Pridham, to AFL House. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
I think the problem and lust for AFL HQ is Harley rather than Pridham, but I completely agree with your premise.
 

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Injuries explain the honourable losses early in the season , where it’s under 2-3 goals , you can hang your hat on “ well if we had 4-5 players back , that’s the 2 goal difference”

But the past 2 weeks is not that, you don’t just lose game like that. Something is massively off at the club

Yes we didn’t look awful for the first part of the season.

There’s a crisis of confidence. It happened last season too. The group gets rattled easily.

And when a team lacks belief, they stop taking the first option, they take half a second extra to make decisions, they stop trusting their teammates to do their job and end up in no man’s land.
It’s fine margin stuff.

We’re not as bad as we look (conversely, this point last year, we weren’t as good as we looked either)
 
It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.
 
Yes we didn’t look awful for the first part of the season.

There’s a crisis of confidence. It happened last season too. The group gets rattled easily.

And when a team lacks belief, they stop taking the first option, they take half a second extra to make decisions, they stop trusting their teammates to do their job and end up in no man’s land.
It’s fine margin stuff.

We’re not as bad as we look (conversely, this point last year, we weren’t as good as we looked either)
That was driving me mental on Saturday night, it was the one constant of the whole debacle. The entire team seems completely devoid of confidence.
 
This thread is completely unhinged. This is still very much John Longmire's team. The physical & tactical issues we have on field at the moment date back to Horse ignoring and in some ways exacerbating them, while the mental issues we have on & off the field are from grand final humiliations that Horse coached.

I loved Horse as a coach and across the span of his tenure, I thought he was very good. But his exit will always leave a sour taste in my mouth, because he did the equivalent of closing the fridge door after making something fall and leaving it for the next person to clean up when they open it.
He coached his heart out 14 years, won a premiership and had us perennial contenders. The GF thrashing would have taken a lot out of him. He had earned the right to leave under his own steam. Cox had been his right hand man for a number of years and was keen to take the reins.
 
It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.
Awesome work I wanted to do this but go back as far as 2015 cause it does read pretty ugly if you take academy players out it . IMO the recruitment has been horrendous.
 
Quite liked Cox's response at the presser - looked like he was up for the fight. I guess we'll see.

It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.
That's ugly
 

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It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.
I don't think it's as bad as you say. McDonald, Campbell, Corey Warner & Cleary all play regular seniors, Logan has had 1 bad season of injury. They are all easily a pass.

Sheldrick is at least a pending atm and i think you're being overly critical of Bice who made an immediate impact and is simply struggling along with the entire team right now. He's had less than half a year exposure and hes done extremely well so far. He'll come good when the rest of the team sort their shit out.

2019 & 2022 were the big busts, absolutely but it's not as bad as you make it out to be.
 
I don't think it's as bad as you say. McDonald, Campbell, Corey Warner & Cleary all play regular seniors, Logan has had 1 bad season of injury. They are all easily a pass.

Sheldrick is at least a pending atm and i think you're being overly critical of Bice who made an immediate impact and is simply struggling along with the entire team right now. He's had less than half a year exposure and hes done extremely well so far. He'll come good when the rest of the team sort their shit out.

2019 & 2022 were the big busts, absolutely but it's not as bad as you make it out to be.

Like I said though, have to rate them on where we took them because that's the opportunity cost. Logan at pick 4 and Campbell at pick 5 have to be a bust. Logan looked in many ways in 2024 to be the same player he was when we drafted him. Decent on the lead but couldn't win a 1:1 contest and seemingly hasn't put on the bulk to be a true KPF. Maybe he'll spend this year building his upper body but considering no one else in our side has actually bulked up in years and years despite the fact that we've lost Grand Finals by looking like boys amongst men, I doubt it.

Campbell wouldn't be in the side if we had a fully fit list. Simply doesn't get near the ball anywhere near enough to be impactful. Has been tried all over the ground and still hard to say what his best position is. Showed a couple of glimpses as a small forward this year but again - doesn't get near it enough. The best smalls in the game are getting over 3.5 shots at goal a game, Campbell is at 2. 0.4 tackles per game in the forward 50. Granted, some of it is probably down to just how horrendous our tall forwards have been this year, but still it's not great.

Cleary is still pending as I said. Need to see if he can develop as a midfielder. Corey Warner is almost the definition of a replacement level player.
 
It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.

Kinnear can **** off tbh

Youd have a better hit rate pulling names out of a hat
 
Harley and Horse took a look at the list and decided to get off a sinking ship...

Not smart by Cox taking on a top team at the start of a decline.

Would have been way smarter taking the Eagles job at the bottom of the cycle.

It's not going to end well for Cox now.
 
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Harley and Horse took a look at the list and decided to get off a sinking ship...

Not smart by Cox taking on a top team at the start of a decline.

Would have been way smarter taking the Eagles job at the bottom the cycle.

It's not going to end well for Cox now.
Harley is still at the Swans, he must be going down with the sinking ship (like any good captain)….
 
Awesome work I wanted to do this but go back as far as 2015 cause it does read pretty ugly if you take academy players out it . IMO the recruitment has been horrendous.
The comparison to the previous 6 years is stark, mainly because of the players we were able to get out of the rookie picks. What's actually frustrating is how many worked out but for other teams. That's the other part of this story - the decisions we made around who to trade and who to keep.

2013
Zak Jones - Fail
George Hewett - Pass
Toby Nankervis - Pass
Aliir Aliir - Pass
Patrick Mitchell (Rookie) - Fail
Lloyd Perris (Rookie) - Fail

This is particularly brutal. We've got Hewett, a contested bull, Nankervis, a 3 time premiership Ruckman, and Aliir, one of the best intercept KPDs in the comp. All of them on other teams.

2014
Isaac Heeney - Pass
James Rose - Fail
Jack Hiscox - Fail
Abaina Davis - Fail
Sean McLaren (Rookie) - Fail
Nic Newman (Rookie) - Pass
Lewis Melican (Rookie) - Pass

2015
Callum Mills -
Pass
Tyrone Leonardis - Fail
Jordan Dawson - Pass
Tom Papley (Rookie) - Pass
Harrison Marsh (Rookie) - Fail
Kyle Galloway (Rookie) - Fail
Sam Murray (Rookie) - Fail
Colin O'Riordan (Rookie) - Fail

2016
Ollie Florent -
Pass (without reaching the heights we hoped)
Will Hayward -
Pass (as above)
Jack Maibaum -
Fail
Darcy Cameron - Pass
Ben Ronke (Rookie) - Fail
Robbie Fox (Rookie) - Pass
Shaun Edwards (Rookie) - Fail
Toby Pink (Rookie) - Fail

2017
Matthew Ling -
Fail
Tom McCartin - Pass
Ryley Stoddart - Fail
Angus Styles (Rookie) - Fail
Joel Amartey (Rookie) - Pass

2018
Nick Blakey -
Pass
James Rowbottom - Pass
Justin McInerney - Pass
Zac Foot (Rookie) - Fail
Durak Tucker (Rookie) - Fail
Harry Reynolds (Rookie) - Fail




So to summarise - we haven't picked someone in the rookie draft who has become a regular in our best 22 since Joel Amartey. In the 2013-2018 drafts, we hit on 4 rookie picks out of 16 - 25% success rate. In 2019-2024 drafts, we've hit 0 out of 8.

Overall, we hit on 18/40 of our draft picks in 2013-2018 for a rate of 45%. So far, out of our 36 draft picks in 2019-2024, we've hit on 3, with 11 still pending. Even if I were to be generous and say Logan is a pass (to be fair, he is best 22 when he's fit), that's 4 who you would consider a pass. Let's give a success rate of 45% to the remaining pendings - that gives you 5 hits. So 9 out of 36 in total for a success rate of 25%.

It's been catastrophic really.
 

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The comparison to the previous 6 years is stark, mainly because of the players we were able to get out of the rookie picks. What's actually frustrating is how many worked out but for other teams. That's the other part of this story - the decisions we made around who to trade and who to keep.

2013
Zak Jones - Fail
George Hewett - Pass
Toby Nankervis - Pass
Aliir Aliir - Pass
Patrick Mitchell (Rookie) - Fail
Lloyd Perris (Rookie) - Fail

This is particularly brutal. We've got Hewett, a contested bull, Nankervis, a 3 time premiership Ruckman, and Aliir, one of the best intercept KPDs in the comp. All of them on other teams.

2014
Isaac Heeney - Pass
James Rose - Fail
Jack Hiscox - Fail
Abaina Davis - Fail
Sean McLaren (Rookie) - Fail
Nic Newman (Rookie) - Pass
Lewis Melican (Rookie) - Pass

2015
Callum Mills -
Pass
Tyrone Leonardis - Fail
Jordan Dawson - Pass
Tom Papley (Rookie) - Pass
Harrison Marsh (Rookie) - Fail
Kyle Galloway (Rookie) - Fail
Sam Murray (Rookie) - Fail
Colin O'Riordan (Rookie) - Fail

2016
Ollie Florent -
Pass (without reaching the heights we hoped)
Will Hayward -
Pass (as above)
Jack Maibaum -
Fail
Darcy Cameron - Pass
Ben Ronke (Rookie) - Fail
Robbie Fox (Rookie) - Pass
Shaun Edwards (Rookie) - Fail
Toby Pink (Rookie) - Fail

2017
Matthew Ling -
Fail
Tom McCartin - Pass
Ryley Stoddart - Fail
Angus Styles (Rookie) - Fail
Joel Amartey (Rookie) - Pass

2018
Nick Blakey -
Pass
James Rowbottom - Pass
Justin McInerney - Pass
Zac Foot (Rookie) - Fail
Durak Tucker (Rookie) - Fail
Harry Reynolds (Rookie) - Fail




So to summarise - we haven't picked someone in the rookie draft who has become a regular in our best 22 since Joel Amartey. In the 2013-2018 drafts, we hit on 4 rookie picks out of 16 - 25% success rate. In 2019-2024 drafts, we've hit 0 out of 8.

Overall, we hit on 18/40 of our draft picks in 2013-2018 for a rate of 45%. So far, out of our 36 draft picks in 2019-2024, we've hit on 3, with 11 still pending. Even if I were to be generous and say Logan is a pass (to be fair, he is best 22 when he's fit), that's 4 who you would consider a pass. Let's give a success rate of 45% to the remaining pendings - that gives you 5 hits. So 9 out of 36 in total for a success rate of 25%.

It's been catastrophic really.
I don't think you can count Nankervis, Hewett, Aliir, Cameron and Neumann as passes because we let them go because we didn't appreciate how good they were or would become. I think most this lot wouldve stayed longer if given the chance. Dawson I'd let slide because he was always going regardless (dirty rat).
 
Harley is still at the Swans, he must be going down with the sinking ship (like any good captain)….
Some talk he goes to AFL

Otherwise

the captain GIF
 
The comparison to the previous 6 years is stark, mainly because of the players we were able to get out of the rookie picks. What's actually frustrating is how many worked out but for other teams. That's the other part of this story - the decisions we made around who to trade and who to keep.

2013
Zak Jones - Fail
George Hewett - Pass
Toby Nankervis - Pass
Aliir Aliir - Pass
Patrick Mitchell (Rookie) - Fail
Lloyd Perris (Rookie) - Fail

This is particularly brutal. We've got Hewett, a contested bull, Nankervis, a 3 time premiership Ruckman, and Aliir, one of the best intercept KPDs in the comp. All of them on other teams.

2014
Isaac Heeney - Pass
James Rose - Fail
Jack Hiscox - Fail
Abaina Davis - Fail
Sean McLaren (Rookie) - Fail
Nic Newman (Rookie) - Pass
Lewis Melican (Rookie) - Pass

2015
Callum Mills -
Pass
Tyrone Leonardis - Fail
Jordan Dawson - Pass
Tom Papley (Rookie) - Pass
Harrison Marsh (Rookie) - Fail
Kyle Galloway (Rookie) - Fail
Sam Murray (Rookie) - Fail
Colin O'Riordan (Rookie) - Fail

2016
Ollie Florent -
Pass (without reaching the heights we hoped)
Will Hayward -
Pass (as above)
Jack Maibaum -
Fail
Darcy Cameron - Pass
Ben Ronke (Rookie) - Fail
Robbie Fox (Rookie) - Pass
Shaun Edwards (Rookie) - Fail
Toby Pink (Rookie) - Fail

2017
Matthew Ling -
Fail
Tom McCartin - Pass
Ryley Stoddart - Fail
Angus Styles (Rookie) - Fail
Joel Amartey (Rookie) - Pass

2018
Nick Blakey -
Pass
James Rowbottom - Pass
Justin McInerney - Pass
Zac Foot (Rookie) - Fail
Durak Tucker (Rookie) - Fail
Harry Reynolds (Rookie) - Fail




So to summarise - we haven't picked someone in the rookie draft who has become a regular in our best 22 since Joel Amartey. In the 2013-2018 drafts, we hit on 4 rookie picks out of 16 - 25% success rate. In 2019-2024 drafts, we've hit 0 out of 8.

Overall, we hit on 18/40 of our draft picks in 2013-2018 for a rate of 45%. So far, out of our 36 draft picks in 2019-2024, we've hit on 3, with 11 still pending. Even if I were to be generous and say Logan is a pass (to be fair, he is best 22 when he's fit), that's 4 who you would consider a pass. Let's give a success rate of 45% to the remaining pendings - that gives you 5 hits. So 9 out of 36 in total for a success rate of 25%.

It's been catastrophic really.

Time to trade for established talent
 
The comparison to the previous 6 years is stark, mainly because of the players we were able to get out of the rookie picks. What's actually frustrating is how many worked out but for other teams. That's the other part of this story - the decisions we made around who to trade and who to keep.

2013
Zak Jones - Fail
George Hewett - Pass
Toby Nankervis - Pass
Aliir Aliir - Pass
Patrick Mitchell (Rookie) - Fail
Lloyd Perris (Rookie) - Fail

This is particularly brutal. We've got Hewett, a contested bull, Nankervis, a 3 time premiership Ruckman, and Aliir, one of the best intercept KPDs in the comp. All of them on other teams.

2014
Isaac Heeney - Pass
James Rose - Fail
Jack Hiscox - Fail
Abaina Davis - Fail
Sean McLaren (Rookie) - Fail
Nic Newman (Rookie) - Pass
Lewis Melican (Rookie) - Pass

2015
Callum Mills -
Pass
Tyrone Leonardis - Fail
Jordan Dawson - Pass
Tom Papley (Rookie) - Pass
Harrison Marsh (Rookie) - Fail
Kyle Galloway (Rookie) - Fail
Sam Murray (Rookie) - Fail
Colin O'Riordan (Rookie) - Fail

2016
Ollie Florent -
Pass (without reaching the heights we hoped)
Will Hayward -
Pass (as above)
Jack Maibaum -
Fail
Darcy Cameron - Pass
Ben Ronke (Rookie) - Fail
Robbie Fox (Rookie) - Pass
Shaun Edwards (Rookie) - Fail
Toby Pink (Rookie) - Fail

2017
Matthew Ling -
Fail
Tom McCartin - Pass
Ryley Stoddart - Fail
Angus Styles (Rookie) - Fail
Joel Amartey (Rookie) - Pass

2018
Nick Blakey -
Pass
James Rowbottom - Pass
Justin McInerney - Pass
Zac Foot (Rookie) - Fail
Durak Tucker (Rookie) - Fail
Harry Reynolds (Rookie) - Fail




So to summarise - we haven't picked someone in the rookie draft who has become a regular in our best 22 since Joel Amartey. In the 2013-2018 drafts, we hit on 4 rookie picks out of 16 - 25% success rate. In 2019-2024 drafts, we've hit 0 out of 8.

Overall, we hit on 18/40 of our draft picks in 2013-2018 for a rate of 45%. So far, out of our 36 draft picks in 2019-2024, we've hit on 3, with 11 still pending. Even if I were to be generous and say Logan is a pass (to be fair, he is best 22 when he's fit), that's 4 who you would consider a pass. Let's give a success rate of 45% to the remaining pendings - that gives you 5 hits. So 9 out of 36 in total for a success rate of 25%.

It's been catastrophic really.
Thanks mate that puts into perspective for me now and what I thought it’s horrendous recruitment but we made 3 grand finals in that time .
 
I don't think you can count Nankervis, Hewett, Aliir, Cameron and Neumann as passes because we let them go because we didn't appreciate how good they were or would become. I think most this lot wouldve stayed longer if given the chance. Dawson I'd let slide because he was always going regardless (dirty rat).

Sure but there's multiple aspects to list management. There's the scouting/drafting side and then the player retention/list building side (how much do I pay this player, who do I focus on keeping as opposed to letting go, etc).

You take Aliir Aliir with a pick in the 40s, you've hit a home run with the scouting & drafting piece of the equation. Just because we then screwed up the retention/list building aspect doesn't negate that it was a great pick.
 
With all that those records, despite all that we made 2 Grand Finals lol... albeit got smashed in both.

I think it wasn't as flash in the Roos days as well with our 1st round picks. Smashed it in the later rounds though.

Thus trading our picks for even average talent or someone we think that has potential is still the best way to go.
 

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