Saturday Punting

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the_fresh

Club Legend
Aug 31, 2007
2,917
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Collingwood
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Moonee Valley Preview - http://aussieratings.com
Race 1
Only 2 runners here have had a run, Happy Knockout has been ok at its 2 starts both times trying hard, this is easier than last start when beaten by Our Joan Of Arc, Little Bull did nothing at Sandown when 9th, was well supported pre post and could improve with Blinkers. Of the rest Carlton Forward trialed well. – Watch the market if you want a bet

Race 2
Pretty good race here.
Thinking that Red Flair is going to get a pretty soft run behind the leaders from the barrier, she was a little unlucky and should have finished closer at the Night meeting 9 weeks ago and before that had no room at Flemington down the straight, Emma Princess chased the runaway winner in Whopitt here a few weeks ago, she tried hard that night, should give a good slight while Tossit Around came down the outside in a pretty good race on Cup day, did finish last but made all the running for the outside and that was in Listed grade

Race 3
Like Forays. Was a great effort last time on Cup day when beaten a head by Hips Don’t Lie, had to switch off heels and get going again and finished with 2 very good horses. Before that ran a great second to a very smart horse in Eclair Fantastic who came to Melbourne and did a lot wrong but beat a good field. Hybird won first up at Sandown and was put straight out for another spell, led and did it very easily, before that was racing in better class races. Parkour Blw away a maiden field at Geelong but ran along in pretty quick time.

Race 4
I think Arclace has been going pretty well this time in, should have finished closer to Purple last Friday night when got too far back, should be up on the speed this week. Before that was a great 5th at Flemington to Bird of Fire, again got back but ran home well, goes well at the track and dead going should suit. Game Serena was very unlucky in that last race on Cox Plate day, then made up ground t Flemington in which Hidden Wonder ran 2nd, won’t get as far back this time, then was wide at Ararat against the boys, battled on that day. Hidden Wonder was caught near the line in a good race at Flemington, doesn’t look like theres much pace in this race and should be well suited. Sunday Adieu split Instructor & Eskino Dan who came out and ran first 2 last week in black type. She got miles back and had to go looking for runs, big rider change and could fight out the finish.

Race 5
Think Anyways might be hard to beat. Races pretty handy and there doesn’t seem like theres a lot of pace here and could get a great sit on these leaders. Last start tried hard but couldn’t run down the leader/winner who was well rated in front. The gear change on Crossthestart is a big one. Last start looked as if it switched off 600m from here and then made up good ground late, the step up to 1500m plus the Blinkers put it right in this race. While Kings Farewell sat outside but lost the winner on the turn, the winner is a pretty good one in great form and if he can push forward will be a huge danger.

Race 6
Really happy to back Amberino who gets in this race well at the weights. Last time out was a tad unlucky when it couldn’t get clear room and still got to the line very well. Before that she ran a nice even race when coming from last to finish 9th beaten 2.1 lengths in a good strong mares race. Theres a big hype o Alexandra Gardens here, she was poorly out of the gates at Flemington when she ran into the very good Flying Ruby, all 3 wins have been from the lead or right on the pace and I don’t see a need to ride her any other way, she went to 9 days ago for a kill on a very heavy track. Note that Zahra has chosen to ride her over Amberino (hers hoping that the old saying comes true that jockeys are the worst juges ;)) Justsat Sumthink went ok last week, just ran into a better horse when beaten by Flying Ruby. All in all, Amberino should be better value and well worth backing.

Race 7
Raeburn rated very well last start even tho he was beaten just under a length. He was wide early then had to push forward to get any form of over, draws a better barrier today and should good sit. China Causeway is racing in great form while Superzeel goes well here and could run a place.

Race 8
Hard race to end the day, but going with the ratings here. There looks to be a hot early pace with horses all trying to push forward, Happy Glen should get to the rail but Northern Point & Mrs Water both like to lead and will try for the front. While this is all going on Snappy Tom should get a lovely sit from barrier 1, He wasn’t too bad at Flemington when beaten 3 lengths, had Lindop on that day and with Newitt today is better suited, before that went back to the inside and ran on pretty well at Caulfield, has been racing in much better races and is well weighted today. Gran Susso was due to be Gelded after he won at Sandown, he fought on great that day after coming down the wrong side of the track at Flemington. Northern Point is a good sprinter first up here, did trial very well 3 weeks ago and well in this with a claim.
Best Bet:
Race 6 Number 1: Amberino
Best Each-Way
Race 2 Number 6: Red Flair
Race 8 Number 5: Snappy Tom

Quaddie:
1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 & 10/1, 2, 4, 10/4, 6, 7, 8 & 11/1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10 & 14 = $98 for 10%
(Its a hard day and a blow out or 2 could add some value
 
Fresh,

With you on Amberino. Will anchor in the quad to allow me to wider in the other legs. I have $60 to spend for my work' punters club and am not keen on anything else at MV.

Will be looking more west @ Morphetville (Falvelons Dream) and then onto Ascot.
 
Will you be doing ratings for Eagle Farm today fresh?

Wondering how you think Alverta (R6) and Shes in the Guide (R7) will go today?

Cheers
 

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for now...

ASCOT
r5 - tarzi
r7 - takeover target

RANDWICK
r1 - rapala (blackbooker but also have romany star racing who is also a blackbooker)
r2 - turf express
r3 - rock me baby
r4 - my sweet cookie
r6 - tenants tiara

MOONEY VALLEY
r2 - red flair
r3 - forays or true tales or together
r5 - im a toff
r6 - amberino

MORPHETVILLE
r3 - boogie on the grass
 
If anyone is having a bet in the Jockeys Challenge today.
Craig Williams 100
Glen Boss 94
Dwayne Dunn 82
Mark Zahra 77
Craig Newitt 74
Mark Pegus 45
Vlad Duric 45
Billy Egan (a3) 44
Michelle Payne 39
Peter Mertens 37
Danny Brereton 33
Dean Holland (a1.5) 32
Greg Childs 28
Stephen Baster 23
Daniel Moor 20
Andrew Mallyon (a2) 20
Amy Herrmann (a2) 16
Steven Arnold 15
Chris Symons 14
Logan McGill (a3) 12
Nick Mehmet (a3) 11
Brian Higgins (a3) 9
Matthew Allen 5
Steven King 0
Wayne Davis 0

I got these by adding each jockeys mounts rating in each race.
I did them for myself last weekend and at Sandown midweek and they're 1 and a half from 2, Williams dead heated on Wednesday.
 
Morphettville
4-4 Superfly
6-7 Falvelon's Dream - best bet of the day
7-5 Muzdaher

Moonee Valley
2-1 Turquia
4-1 Sunday Adieu
5-4 Anyways
7-11 Superzeel - my roughie for the day
 
Morphettville
4-4 Superfly
6-7 Falvelon's Dream - best bet of the day
7-5 Muzdaher

Moonee Valley
2-1 Turquia
4-1 Sunday Adieu
5-4 Anyways
7-11 Superzeel - my roughie for the day
He's on his last chance with me.
Was good at Geelong both times, then I thought he was great at Flemington when I made him a each-way best bet, he did a little bit of work after stuffing the start and then on the heavy track he led and did NOTHING, I've put that down to the track. He seems to go well here & he's $21 on IAS at the moment.
 
Only 3 I like today

Tenant's Tiara - my fav mare in Sydney, might be ridden a bit quieter today then go whoosh down the outside

Alexandra Gardens - they won't catch her at the Valley!

Superzeel at odds. (same as you guys, jeez that last run was crapola but he goes ok here at the track, well weighted, at his best will go ok)
 

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Isn't it always the way? Missed out by 1 horse. Arclace was insurance for my tri wager so I'm still up for the day.

3 from 3 so far. Can't separate Anyways and CrossTheStart in race 5. Maybe I'll exacta them.
 

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