The Crows Truth
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Scare Crows
24 June 2006 Herald-Sun
Mike Sheahan
AS CONVINCING as Adelaide's 10-2 record is on paper, it comes up even better under wider analysis.
Adelaide has outscored its opposition by the staggering margin of 508 points, the wins coming at an average of nine goals.
The margins in the two losses total five points: two to West Coast, three to Richmond.
That's after playing six of the other seven teams in the eight, with only Sydney to come.
If that's not scary enough for every other team daring to dream of a premiership, the Crows have won 28 of 37 games in 2005-06 (75.6 per cent).
Neil Craig and his boys seem obsessed about redeeming themselves for their qualifying final loss to St Kilda at AAMI Stadium last year, the stumble that probably cost them the flag.
Even with four or five regulars missing in recent weeks, they have looked awesome. Intimidating.
They beat St Kilda by 10 goals last weekend, having beaten the Western Bulldogs by 77 points in Round 5.
The Crows play seven of their last 10 games at AAMI Stadium and also will get a feel of the MCG against the Bulldogs in Round 20.
We may be just past the halfway mark in the marathon of 2006, but, as Bruce McAvaney might say, ``Gee, they're travelling beautifully, the Crows. You'd like to be on them from here''.
But history says the Crows still must prove they can run the trip.
West Coast was 11-1 at the same point last year and lost the Grand Final; St Kilda 10-2 the previous year and didn't even reach the big one.
Adelaide has two major hurdles to clear to be sure of finishing on top: Sydney at the SCG in Round 14 and West Coast at Subiaco Oval in Round 17.
If they win one of those, they should finish first; if not, they will finish no worse than second behind West Coast. Still with their fate in their hands in September, with first and second places carrying equal value.
If Sydney beats Collingwood at Telstra Stadium tonight, the top three this year is likely to be the same as it was last year: Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney.
If so, Collingwood and Melbourne will fight for the remaining spot in the top four and the accompanying double-chance in the finals.
As brave, as brilliant, as the Bulldogs have been this year, they are going to struggle to stay in contention.
I have given them just four wins from their last 10 games, leaving them with 12 and sixth or seventh place.
They are, remember, going into the rest of the season minus Robert Murphy and Mitch Hahn, and with Daniel Giansiracusa and Will Minson light on match fitness.
The importance of Scott West and Adam Cooney in the midfield and Brad Johnson forward is huge. And growing by the week.
Geelong is my big improver. Although the Cats have just five wins from 12, I see them winning as many as seven of their last 10, which would justify all the pre-season hype.
It's a tall order, particularly if they lose their next engagement _ Adelaide at AAMI Stadium _ but seven of the last nine will be played at Skilled Stadium or Telstra Dome.
The battle for the bottom spot in the eight will involve up to four teams.
Currently, one win separates StKilda (seventh) and Hawthorn (12th), although there is a 23 per cent gap, equivalent to another game.
The Saints are wobbly, but have beaten the Bulldogs and Sydney, should have got home against Port Adelaide and were in front of Fremantle when the siren sounded.
Even with their injuries, it's hard to see them not maintaining their 50-50 win rate and winning at least five more games.
The break has come at a good time for them. It will allow Luke Ball and others to freshen up, and the coaching staff to reassess: put everyone back where they play best, ease Aaron Hamill and Justin Koschitzke back in during the next month.
I'm not sure how good they are with their injury problems, but I do know they're too good to finish outside the top half of the ladder.
Port Adelaide and Freo are the threats, although Port would seem far more credible than the Dockers.
The turnaround at Port has been extraordinary.
It was 2-6, having lost five of six games at AAMI Stadium, before Brendon Lade, Shaun Burgoyne, Chad Cornes and bunch of enthusiastic kids led the recovery.
Any team that beats West Coast can't be dismissed from finals calculations.
The Geelong-Port encounter at Skilled Stadium in Round 15 might determine the fate of both of them.
24 June 2006 Herald-Sun
Mike Sheahan
AS CONVINCING as Adelaide's 10-2 record is on paper, it comes up even better under wider analysis.
Adelaide has outscored its opposition by the staggering margin of 508 points, the wins coming at an average of nine goals.
The margins in the two losses total five points: two to West Coast, three to Richmond.
That's after playing six of the other seven teams in the eight, with only Sydney to come.
If that's not scary enough for every other team daring to dream of a premiership, the Crows have won 28 of 37 games in 2005-06 (75.6 per cent).
Neil Craig and his boys seem obsessed about redeeming themselves for their qualifying final loss to St Kilda at AAMI Stadium last year, the stumble that probably cost them the flag.
Even with four or five regulars missing in recent weeks, they have looked awesome. Intimidating.
They beat St Kilda by 10 goals last weekend, having beaten the Western Bulldogs by 77 points in Round 5.
The Crows play seven of their last 10 games at AAMI Stadium and also will get a feel of the MCG against the Bulldogs in Round 20.
We may be just past the halfway mark in the marathon of 2006, but, as Bruce McAvaney might say, ``Gee, they're travelling beautifully, the Crows. You'd like to be on them from here''.
But history says the Crows still must prove they can run the trip.
West Coast was 11-1 at the same point last year and lost the Grand Final; St Kilda 10-2 the previous year and didn't even reach the big one.
Adelaide has two major hurdles to clear to be sure of finishing on top: Sydney at the SCG in Round 14 and West Coast at Subiaco Oval in Round 17.
If they win one of those, they should finish first; if not, they will finish no worse than second behind West Coast. Still with their fate in their hands in September, with first and second places carrying equal value.
If Sydney beats Collingwood at Telstra Stadium tonight, the top three this year is likely to be the same as it was last year: Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney.
If so, Collingwood and Melbourne will fight for the remaining spot in the top four and the accompanying double-chance in the finals.
As brave, as brilliant, as the Bulldogs have been this year, they are going to struggle to stay in contention.
I have given them just four wins from their last 10 games, leaving them with 12 and sixth or seventh place.
They are, remember, going into the rest of the season minus Robert Murphy and Mitch Hahn, and with Daniel Giansiracusa and Will Minson light on match fitness.
The importance of Scott West and Adam Cooney in the midfield and Brad Johnson forward is huge. And growing by the week.
Geelong is my big improver. Although the Cats have just five wins from 12, I see them winning as many as seven of their last 10, which would justify all the pre-season hype.
It's a tall order, particularly if they lose their next engagement _ Adelaide at AAMI Stadium _ but seven of the last nine will be played at Skilled Stadium or Telstra Dome.
The battle for the bottom spot in the eight will involve up to four teams.
Currently, one win separates StKilda (seventh) and Hawthorn (12th), although there is a 23 per cent gap, equivalent to another game.
The Saints are wobbly, but have beaten the Bulldogs and Sydney, should have got home against Port Adelaide and were in front of Fremantle when the siren sounded.
Even with their injuries, it's hard to see them not maintaining their 50-50 win rate and winning at least five more games.
The break has come at a good time for them. It will allow Luke Ball and others to freshen up, and the coaching staff to reassess: put everyone back where they play best, ease Aaron Hamill and Justin Koschitzke back in during the next month.
I'm not sure how good they are with their injury problems, but I do know they're too good to finish outside the top half of the ladder.
Port Adelaide and Freo are the threats, although Port would seem far more credible than the Dockers.
The turnaround at Port has been extraordinary.
It was 2-6, having lost five of six games at AAMI Stadium, before Brendon Lade, Shaun Burgoyne, Chad Cornes and bunch of enthusiastic kids led the recovery.
Any team that beats West Coast can't be dismissed from finals calculations.
The Geelong-Port encounter at Skilled Stadium in Round 15 might determine the fate of both of them.
