Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

[Leemas]

I've seen Wylie play before but perhaps not at as advanced a stage of development as he is now.

I'm happy to tentatively write him off, though. He's an overaged player so already he'll enter the system at the equivalent of a second year player. And he's playing like a solid first year player.

As I've written a page or two back in this thread, I'm very hesitant to buy into the hype of any non top 20 standard key forward. The hit rate with key forwards in the second/third round is between 5-15%. The hit rate of 18-19 year old key forwards drafted in the fourth-rookie would be less than that. They traditionally do not provide a good return on investment unless selected based on dominant junior performances. There are very, very few exceptions to this rule.

Wylie is fighting uphill to make the grade purely as very few key forwards of his type do - the pre-requisite is to dominate junior levels. As an older and bigger player, he might just do that by virtue of his size and extra development, a bit like Jayden Foster did last year. But Jayden Foster was a waste of time - and any 19 year old key forward who does I do look at with a cynical view. The way for Wylie to prove himself would be to play some state league footy in a proper competition and earn his way in that way, not by playing regional Queensland footy at his age.

While there is a bit to like about Wylie and I do think he's got more chance than most 19 year old project forwards, I don't think he's even in the best two forwards eligible for Brisbane this year. Hipwood is a good player and Chol exhibits some incredible potential for mine and could just be the pick of the bunch. At this stage I'd assess both as traditionally 'second round' type talents - who'd go there in past drafts, but given the hit rate of those 'second round' types, I'd probably not touch them until the third or fourth. But if there was one forward who could tempt me to spend a second round pick on them despite my strong aversion to it, it's Mabior Chol. I really, really, really like that kid.

The Smith comparison is a little redundant. With key forwards - you usually know what you're going to get from what they do as juniors. The dominant ones make it, the speculative/promising ones rarely do. The ones who have smart footy brains make it, the athletic ones don't. With rucks, there's far more room for pure athlete's to thrive and modelling their development based on junior careers is far less concrete - it's often about speculation and promise as opposed to production. I personally think that irrespective of their junior careers Archie's probably got a greater chance of making the grade than Wylie purely by virtue of roles. Young, raw, athletic rucks can often make it. Young, raw and speculative forwards don't.

I saw him play ruck which is why I put the smith comparison down. At 198 he reminds me a lot of stef Martin and think that the ruck is his best position. He's playing neafl this weekend listed as a ruckmen on the team sheet so hopefully he gives it a good go there. Brisbane need a promising developing ruck and I think the more mobile almost another midfielder ruckmen is they way to go.

 

[Skippos]

I saw him play ruck which is why I put the smith comparison down. At 198 he reminds me a lot of stef Martin and think that the ruck is his best position. He's playing neafl this weekend listed as a ruckmen on the team sheet so hopefully he gives it a good go there. Brisbane need a promising developing ruck and I think the more mobile almost another midfielder ruckmen is they way to go.

And you may well have a point regarding Wylie in the ruck. Haven't seen him there so will reserve judgement. At his height, with his dimensions and style though I think he might transition to an okay state league ruck but I just don't see afl ruck there. To make it at 198 you've got to be a once in every three or four years type ruck and I don't think he has the potential to be.

 

[Old navy]

Greg Clark is probably the notable big bodied mid in the draft along with Dunkley. Not sold on Clark yet, but my initial thought based on last year is that he was pretty likeable. Charlie Curnow is another who's got a bit of scope to develop into that type.

From SA, like usual, not many. Campbell Wildman is an interesting one who I expect to play the champs game this week. Probably not a pure midfielder but there's scope. The one I'm particularly bullish about and see real scope to become that skilled big inside mid is Cam Hewett he's an absolute rake at the moment but shows some real inside ball winning ability and has some really good size and some x-factor type plays. He's one to watch, I suspect he'll bolt late season and perhaps be our second mid taken after Partington.

Just asked you about a big bodied mid that could do a Bonty in this years draft.
Looks like Aaron Francis could be that 190+ mid who could go top 3 this year.
Be interesting were clubs see him playing his best footy.
He looks so good playing in the backline, reads that play really well.
Although big bodied mids that can go forward take a mark and hit the scoreboard are very rare and highly sort after ATM

Greg Clark looked pretty good at times. His listed as 193cm but Francis almost looks as tall if not taller to me.

 

[Skippos]

Just asked you about a big bodied mid that could do a Bonty in this years draft.
Looks like Aaron Francis could be that 190+ mid who could go top 3 this year.
Be interesting were clubs see him playing his best footy.
He looks so good playing in the backline, reads that play really well.
Although big bodied mids that can go forward take a mark and hit the scoreboard are very rare and highly sort after ATM

Greg Clark looked pretty good at times. His listed as 193cm but Francis almost looks as tall if not taller to me.

I'm not sold on Francis in the middle yet. He's shown it forward and especially down back, but only glimpses in the middle. How he goes if given sufficient time there over the next few weeks determines if he's 3-10 as a KPP or 1-3 as the complete package. If he is a midfielder it's certainly not in the Bontempelli or Fyfe freakishly skilled mold, nor is it in the big bodied inside crash and bash style mold - it's more in that Goddard type role.

Clark is a solid player - he's well rounded and plays a lot smaller than his height, which is handy - always nice to have the smoothness of s 6'1 player when you're 6'4. Again, I'm not too sure if he's that freakish inside type mid but he's someone I could see playing some solid football I'm the middle.

 

[Old navy]

Hewett is very, very raw. Certainly not an inside midfielder...yet.

I rate it as an ordinary one. Not weak nor strong. I like the top 15-20 and believe you'll get a player to work with, and I think towards draft day 20-40 will also be full of role players. Not a draft I feel we're going to see many 18 year olds picked after 40-45 and in the rookie turn out as diamonds though - the worthwhile players to me at least seem clear, compared to last year where there were a lot of speculative and risk/reward types.

I like that view it Does have as any ordinary feel. There will be quality particularly at the top end. With a few potential A grade talents but after around the top 15 there seems a reasonable drop in talent.
This years crop also suffers from a few of the better prospects being part of the Northern academy's F/S.

 

[Old navy]

I'm not sold on Francis in the middle yet. He's shown it forward and especially down back, but only glimpses in the middle. How he goes if given sufficient time there over the next few weeks determines if he's 3-10 as a KPP or 1-3 as the complete package. If he is a midfielder it's certainly not in the Bontempelli or Fyfe freakishly skilled mold, nor is it in the big bodied inside crash and bash style mold - it's more in that Goddard type role.

Clark is a solid player - he's well rounded and plays a lot smaller than his height, which is handy - always nice to have the smoothness of s 6'1 player when you're 6'4. Again, I'm not too sure if he's that freakish inside type mid but he's someone I could see playing some solid football I'm the middle.

I was going to say Sharanberg but more versatile. But Goddard when he was younger is a good comparison too.
All the really big bodied mids are slightly different. Smooth moving Bonty.. Freakish Fyfe.. Brutus sytle Cripps... Ellis Yolman also a beast of a footballer.
Bonty didn't show much as a mid in his year at champs, just glimpses.
If Clark and particularly Francis can tick certain boxes clubs will pull the trigger early.

 

[redandblack]

Skippos, you're not sold on Francis as a mid yet, which is understandable. I have a theory, though.

He plays defence and he plays it brilliantly. He plays forward and he plays it brilliantly. He's hardly ever played midfield, but I reckon it's a fair bet that in future he'll play it pretty well.

He's a very talented player.

How's West Adelaide's draftable list this year?

Francis
Bonner
Snelling
Haysman
Brind
Agostino

Others

Turner
Hampton

Mature chance

Keough

 

[Skippos]

Skippos, you're not sold on Francis as a mid yet, which is understandable. I have a theory, though.

He plays defence and he plays it brilliantly. He plays forward and he plays it brilliantly. He's hardly ever played midfield, but I reckon it's a fair bet that in future he'll play it pretty well.

He's a very talented player.

How's West Adelaide's draftable list this year?

Francis
Bonner
Snelling
Haysman
Brind
Agostino

Others

Turner
Hampton

Mature chance

Keough

I agree. It's logical - most players who can play back and forward well can certainly play through the middle. While not similar in playing style - I have a feeling Francis may be like Jarryd Roughead - excellent down back and excellent forward, and capable through the middle but when considering his talents at either end, a waste there aside from small spurts to change it up. He's the kind of player, like Pavlich - who I suspect if he was unable to play at either end he'd make it as a solid midfielder, but he's just better at each end. I agree he's very talented. Right now, I'd have him as the best South Australian talent since Wingard and before that, Griffen. He's an absolute player.

West Adelaide this year are immense. I now expect at least four of those six to be taken in the ND and all of them drafted. Wouldn't be surprising to see all six taken in the ND. I'd probably have Snelling and Brind as the 5-6 there, though. Brind, if he repeats today's feats again and shows some consistency then I'd expect him to rise above Snelling too.

Bonner, as I've mentioned (and I think discussed with you?) we can all agree is a class above. Reminds me a lot of Kolodjashnij except I'd probably favour KK's leap and intercept game while I prefer what Bonner does with his feet. KK I believe went #5 through GC's recruitment strategy as opposed to being a genuine top 5 player, however - so while I consider them equals as players I don't think Bonner will go that high. Clubs rarely go that high o these types, and I suspect in most drafts KK goes 8-15.

Haysman I'm bullish about. I was a little cynical pre-champs with what I'd seen of him much further outside and based on gut running as opposed to smarts - but I'm more and more becoming of the opinion that that's by virtue of role. I think he's an excellent player and my update on Monday will see him come into second round calculations. He reminds me a lot of Lachie Neale - perhaps not as much of an inside game but Neale didn't have a clearly defined inside game as a junior either. His running patterns impress me - he's clearly a high endurance athlete but he's also appearing in the right spots. He's not just being fed the ball, he's receiving the ball in positions that break open the game. I like how he runs with the ball and tries to break the narrower lines and create a bit of run out of congestion. I don't think he's super quick but he's able to make himself quick with how he moves. Likewise unsure if he's an elite agility athlete but he turns into the right places. He's just a really smart footballer. His kicking is still a little average but I like his decision making and vision - it's just that execution that I'm a little uncertain about but it's not like he's lacking composure, he's just getting a little ahead of himself and it can be corrected. Having seen the hype surrounding Gresham I'm surprised Haysman isn't considered in the same vein. Gets the ball in more dangerous spots, creates more space, physically a little more imposing and takes some risks that Gresham doesn't. Gresham wins a little more inside ball and is perhaps a little more prolific but at this stage I favour Haysman as a footballer. The same knocks on Neale a few years ago apply to Haysman and look where Neale has ended up.

Agostino is another great find. Just so disciplined in defence. Rarely makes mistakes, tough as nails, great kick, smart thinker, good mover. He might slip due to a lack of production but it'd be a crime if he did. You can just tell he's going to play 100 games. And 100 good ones.

 

[redandblack]

Appreciate that feedback and agree.

Thanks.

 

[jjami15]

This years crop also suffers from a few of the better prospects being part of the Northern academy's F/S.

Think you'll find it is because that the Vic Metro and WA teams are not strong let alone 4/5 players being part of the academies.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Knew Bonner was a great kick but some of his kicks yesterday just flawed me. Astonishing kick. Becoming a pretty big fan.

 

[Skippos]

Done another update to the power rankings. I'll begin to update the phantom draft tonight and hopefully complete it during the week. I'm going to cut the 'why' parts out - if you'd like to know a bit more about a player or why I've got them there, just ask

The plan is to begin profiles when I finish this bastard of an assignment this week. I'll probably start with the higher talents and SA players and move through them over the next month. I expect that I'll have 60-80 medium sized profiles done with a month or so. Last year I re-wrote the profiles four or five times and I don't plan to do that this year, instead just starting off medium sized and then expanding and restructuring them into more analytical and detailed profiles around September/October. Happy to take requests for which profiles I write first, though!

Without further waffle (because quite simply there's a lot more coming!) here's the changelog and some reasoning behind the changes to the power rankings. Feel free to comment/question/discuss them, happy to answer or justify anything!

- The top four remain the same, the order shuffles. Francis was always in and around the mix for mine - his performances aren't at all unexpected for mine. Only shuffle is Mills from 2 -> 4 and Francis and Schache up one each. Mills not relegated for any reason bar the success of others.

- Willing to give Parish another fortnight as 'the best mid' in the open draft. I really like him, so I'm hesitant to jump off so quickly. I'll be honest - Parish, Kennedy, Mathieson and Dunkley are the blokes I'm very confident in my assessment of. All sit between 5-10 and I suspect they'll remain relatively consistent while others shuffle around them. Partington, Hopper, Tucker and Keays all have a few unanswered questions and things I want to further investigate so they're a little more tentative and less set in the order - if the first batch perfom poorly I won't be marking them as harshly for it as I'll be considering it a form dip and not a skill dip such is my confidence in the assessment I have on them whereas with the ladder I'd be more open to considering it more reflective of their wider ability.

- Collins the big riser moving from the early 20s to the early 10s. Liked what I saw of him last year and his early season form has been solid but his game this weekend showed another dimension - he is certainly more complete and rounded than I'd marked him. Never had doubts about his defensive side but I'm really liking the development in his offensive game. Small flashes of Tayte Pears there - or more like what Pears would have been without the injuries.

- On the WA front - I'm pretty confident in my assessments there. There really isn't much. Ah Chee I'm not going to rate super highly despite knowing he's very likely to make the grade as on principle I find it tough to reconcile overhyping naturally freakish and x-factor ridden players who don't have AFL standard work rate. I expect he'll develop it - but I feel like rating him higher based on expecting that is rewarding him needlessly. Kade Stewart I'll continue to have inside my top 40 for now until I get clarification as to why he's not playing. Liked him last year - feel he'd be an excellent addition to the side but has played colts the last fortnight. If they genuinely don't feel he's in their best 22, then I'll punt him as I'm only rating him based on last year. John Shaw enters - I like what I see from him, there's some real talent to work with but again - defensive and work rate concerns means he's not going to be high.

- Continuing the WA front - I'm confident next year is going to be a talented crop from them. Sam P-S is a once in a few years type talent and Strnadica, Goddard, Powell-Pepper, Zurhaar and Waterman look excellent talents. I'm gaining confidence in my assessment that Dylan Smith is a bit meh - drafting speculative key forwards rarely works and Smith is certainly that. Irrelevant of supply, he lacks the dominance, production or patterns to indicate he's that good. And as far as key forwards go, if you're not in the first round conversation, you're last for mine.

- A few players have left the top 80-85 altogether: Chad Daniels, Jack Watson, Mitch Antono, Dylan Atkins, Harry Thompson, Kyle Broadwood, Mark Quinn and Harry Cross

- A few new entrants too. Tyrone Leonardis the earliest who I've been thoroughly impressed with all championships with Jadyn Brind the next. Was a little unsure of him, thought he was a flat track bully kind of player but he showed enough on the weekend to indicate he's more than that. Daniel Foley also enters who I've been impressed with. Daniel Capiron becomes the second overager in the list - with his performance sufficient but predominantly his VFL form has ensured I recognised him. Declan Mountford another who's game I liked and Luke Surman the last new entrant. Surman I've seen a bit of forward and been a bit unimpressed and I'm still not sure he's a top line key defender but he's shown some real improvement in that position and I'm hoping and expecting that that continues.

- A few major risers - this has been a pretty solid update. Alex Morgan is one who's really impressed me as has Jack Agostino who I'm certain will play a lot of footy as an honest back pocket. Nash Holmes looks good and has risen a bit as has James Parsons who I've seen enough of his tricks to think there's something there. Corey Wagner looks the goods as an academy pick and Thomas Cameron is quickly becoming a personal favourite - love how dangerous he is and think it's underapprecited. Ben Crocker rises a bit partially by virtue of everyone else falling around him but also due to what he's done. Had a massive influence on the VM/SA game in 50% game time and before his injury also did in the VM/VC game. Certainly rough around the edges but works super hard, pops up in dangerous spots, creates contests and provides run and intensity - he's someone who I think will frustrate at times but be a solid and well rounded player. Hugh Haysman the other major riser as someone I've been super impressed with - his narrow outside running has been super as has his running patterns, work rate and decision making - just some work needs to be done on the execution. Reminds me a lot of Lachie Neale.

- As far as drops go, Ryan Clarke has dropped quite a bit. And barring a turnaround he'll continue to drop a bit. He's just not given enough in any of histhre champs games. Brendan Dew is another to drop - he's been okay but not as good as I'd hoped these champs. Hardly domiant. Theo Thompson is one I thought might have a strong impact but he jst hasn't and has fallen as a result while Agius has fallen again - for the same reasons I mark Ah Chee down too. Agius is just worse. Arguably more naturally talented than Ah Chee, he's just so obsessed with trying to be flashy that he gets it all wrong and he lets his decision making be clouded by that, hiding his tremendously good kick. Work rate is unacceptable as is his defesive efforts. Frustrating. Matthew Nunn also falls - he too hasn't given enough these champs, accumulating relatively cheap stats and not really hurting the opposition like he can. I've really gone cold on him. Dylan Smith the other - I'm just not sold on him as a forward at all. Reminds me a lot of the Jack Cripps type - not so much in style but in ability - he's someone who's good but just not good enough.

 

[Skippos]

And another large waffly post - sorry they're becoming so long - cbf taking more time to condense it! Hopefully it stimulates a discussion as to me these guys are the big ? of the draft.

The one thing I'm really struggling with is my assessment of Allen and McKay. I've very much adopted the whole 'if I don't consider you in the top 20 or so as a key forward, I'm not going to consider you at all' logic this year as every year you get key forwards in that second round bracket who look so good and then just don't deliver. For me it's been Shaun McKernan, Shane Kersten, Mason Shaw, Liam McBean and Tim O'Brien. The next step for me as an analyst is to realise when I'm wrong in my judgement and identify the times where my gut and my viewing indicates that a player is good - but not to run with it. And as I've flogged (probably too much!) a lot this year it's the key forwards. I (along with others, this isn't an issue localised to my own analysis - in fact I feel clubs still have this issue too!) am too easily seduced by speculative key forwards who show flashes of brilliance as opposed to dominance.

So this year it's Allen and McKay who are the dilemmas. Both show flashes of brilliance. Both I see, and I like. But then I sit back and I go - 'but logically/drawing from past results... they're really *not* likely to make it' - and it's just so hard to justify marking them down based not on their own exploits but those of others.

In Allen I see a player who has he explosiveness, powerful leading, agility, size and ground level game of a Jake Stringer. But perhaps not to the same level. He floats in and out of games a bit and has really only performed well in 1/3 championship games - against a sub standard side. Those flashes of brilliance make me go - 'yeah, he's got something about him' - but it's not consistent or sustained enough - a trait nearly all dominant KPFs had as juniors. I'm inclined to mark Allen as more of a 3rd/4th-rookie type player who likely would have gone 20-30 a few years ago (but i suspect recruiters are catching on a bit to the trend hence the omission of blokes like Keitel/Cripps last year).

McKay is even harder because his super late birthday complicates things. He's one of the youngest players in the crop and one who isn't currently dominating as successful key forwards have - but I'm not sure if that's by virtue of his age or his ability. Had he been born 3 weeks later he's next year's crop - whereby he has another year of physical and footballing development and could well dominate; I'm sure Darcy Moore, despite being the best key forward last year, wouldn't have dominated or imposed as a bottom ager - and had he been born 3 weeks earlier he's a '13 draftee not a '14 draftee. Does he still go first round? Does he get noticed at all?

I'm inclined to ignore my theory regarding key forwards and production with McKay. Personally I've been super impressed by him. He's got rare height, some real agility and I reckon he's elite for speed. Reminds me a bit of a better James Stewart (who incidentally looks to be an exception to the 2nd round = likely bust rule). I think I'm going to assess him not so much on production but place a higher emphasis on the flashes as really, he is a raw and compared to others, undeveloped kid who I suspect would dominate if he had that extra 12 months development leading up to his draft year like a Darcy Moore type has.

He's also the key forward in this year's crop who I'm most certain could make it as a defender if it doesn't all work out forward. One thing I think it's important to consider with forwards is that there's a chance they're just not going to make it - and if they don't, can we re-invent them and still get some purpose out of them? It was part of the reason I rated Darcy so high last year - he had some ?s forward but there was always the fallback of moving to defence and making it if he didn't work out forward. More and more we're seeing athletic talls identified as key defenders and thriving there relative to their performance forward. Failed forwards often succeed in these key defensive roles as they don't require the smarts and IQ required to create your own opportunities as a forward, instead only demanding the closing speed, endurance, discipline/work rate and strength that most elite key forwards have. Jordan Roughead, Rory Thompson, Steven May, Tom Lonergan, David Astbury, Ted Richards, Heath Grundy all examples of this. I strongly believe McKay to have the traits required to succeed as a defender at AFL level and as such would have less hesitation advocating him as a worthwhile forward selection, if that makes sense?

But I'm still unsure. Forwards are becoming nearly as tough as rucks to project

 

[Dav1d]

Each recruiter would have their own philosophies in regards to key position players
some of the players that they're keen on might only show a flash of brilliance in the Champs, but that can sometimes be enough if it's coupled with the right attitude

It is interesting how a lot of people expected the Dogs & Freo (unsure of who else) would go for a key position player last year, but yet neither selected one

 

[Chaisa]

If you can answer, what was the deal with the Day/Gumbleton/Watts type busting as key forwards? Was it misjudgement on their abilities, or did they just not kick on for whatever reason? Was there something that they showed as juniors that could've held them back?

 

[Skippos]

If you can answer, what was the deal with the Day/Gumbleton/Watts type busting as key forwards? Was it misjudgement on their abilities, or did they just not kick on for whatever reason? Was there something that they showed as juniors that could've held them back?

Day - Athlete and not a footballer. To succeed as a key forward you've just got to have the smarts and leading patterns to put yourself in dangerous positions. Supporting that, elite contested marking is ideal and can cover for sub par leading patterns at times. Day has some of the worst leading patterns I've seen (and as a junior he did too) and his contested marking never developed. Not only that, but Day's primary strength, his incredible athleticism, was mitigated by what I suspect to be overtraining. GC clearly saw Day as potentially a Cloke/Hawkins type physical threat (understandably, to an extent - he was never going to be the Cameron/Kennedy style smart leading forward). Day is 196 cm and 103 kg. It's just too heavy especially for a bloke who isn't a massive contested marker. What that extra weight has done is hurt his agility and top speed in an attempt to increase his physical presence. I don't think Day is ever going to be a player but to get the best out of himself I'd be advocating he drops 5-7 kilos to really improve that athleticism, which could see him end up not dissimilar to a Sam Reid of Sydney - that or switch him to defence and redistribute some of his excess torso weight to his limbs and I think he might go alright with his natural athletic gifts. I never really understood why he went so high, to be fair.

Gumbleton - You take Travis Cloke and stop him from playing footy between 18-23 and he doesn't end up near the same player he is today. Gumbleton is a case of just not getting the development he needed due to injuries. While he was 'in football' while injured, he wasn't able to actively develop his game. Every year a player misses is a year of lost development. Players don't just improve over time; it doesn't just 'happen' as one ages. They've gotta work and experience to get there. Gumbleton not only missed so much time and opportunity to develop, but missed that time in the most crucial part of a young key forward's career. I don't know whether Gumbleton would have made it if he never was injured - but from what I saw of him when he did play, there was enough to work with that I suspect he would have. The mental effect of missing so much football cannot be underestimated either.

Watts - I'm not writing him off yet. But, his ectomorphic nature doesn't help. He's clearly someone who just can't fill out like others can. Part of it lies i the head - I think he mentally struggles; plenty of scrawny kids try to crash packs and back into them but Watts just never would. You give Jack Watts the heart of Jake Spencer or Chris Dawes and he makes it - and well. I don't think putting on muscle would have solved it for Jack, but it would have helped. He's have had a little more confidence to be aggressive and hit the ball hard. Perhaps you could say Melbourne didn't do enough diligence and perhaps could have realised he was a fragile kid lacking the toughness required to make the grade - but that's just baseless speculation. What is for sure is that Watts has an incredibly natural read of the play, some really nice athletic traits and excellent footskills. If we can just get him to have some confidence I really think he can make the grade. But as a forward. He leads to some handy spots, he creates separation, he'll beat his defender at ground level and up the ground he's someone you trust to hit targets inside 50. I think Jack's best football has been played as a key forward and I really hope he gets another shot - 5-6 weeks straight to play with Hogan as that #2 guy. But Pedersen's success might hurt there. In defence Jack has a great intercept game but his defensive intensity prevents him from making it there and in the middle he's a great outside receiver and his skills help but lacks the two way running and spacial awareness to make it there. He's a forward - and I think if he gets a pure run at playing as a genuine forward he'll still make it.

 

[Skippos]

Mock draft (post #2) isn't yet updated but I've spent the last few hours phantoming and came up with this

Rounds 1 & 2
Rounds 3 & 4

As always, I'm eager to get some feedback - especially from supporters about what their club will target as I'm not involved enough to accurately project all. In round one I've gone best available with an eye towards filling a need if there was a player who suited that need within 1-2 of being 'best available' and gradually phased out best available in favour of relative (perceived!) needs throughout the later rounds. If you reckon I've gone with the wrong positions, let me know! Chances are, I have. Or I've decided to ignore that need due to lack of quality in it (as I've done for clubs who need KPD/KPFs and haven't filled them early in this. There's some good KPDs in this draft but after ~25 it ends pretty quickly, no point bolting on one that's purely speculative. And I don't particularly believe in wasting late picks on project KPFs who are an exceptionally high chance of not working out)

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Carlton will be taking a KPP with our first pick. No doubt about it.
If Weitering or Shache are there - lock it in.

 

[Ben Drever]

Eade has constantly talking about more midfielders.. More people to go through the middle to help the Swallow Ablett Prestia and O'Mearas
And needing better runners.. We're hopeless at spreading!

Under the impression we'd take a classy mid with our first pick..
But since the top few mids are Academy players.. Can't exactly take the 5th best mid at pick 1 or 2
Maybe we do take best available and pick up mids with our later picks.

Keep up the good work skip.

 

[GT619]

Carlton will be taking a KPP with our first pick. No doubt about it.
If Weitering or Shache are there - lock it in.

If gold coast stay last and pick up Jacob than we'll take the best key forward shache if we miss on the jacob

 

[Ben Drever]

If gold coast stay last and pick up Jacob than we'll take the best key forward shache if we miss on the jacob

Brisbane would be cursing if you guys pick up Shache

 

[Vankri]

- A few new entrants too. Tyrone Leonardis the earliest who I've been thoroughly impressed with all championships with Jadyn Brind the next. Was a little unsure of him, thought he was a flat track bully kind of player but he showed enough on the weekend to indicate he's more than that. Daniel Foley also enters who I've been impressed with. Daniel Capiron becomes the second overager in the list - with his performance sufficient but predominantly his VFL form has ensured I recognised him. Declan Mountford another who's game I liked and Luke Surman the last new entrant. Surman I've seen a bit of forward and been a bit unimpressed and I'm still not sure he's a top line key defender but he's shown some real improvement in that position and I'm hoping and expecting that that continues.

Just on Leonardis, I managed to catch a couple of quarters of the VC vs VM game. Obviously a few of the already highly rated prospects justified the hype (Parish, Schache, Weitering, O'Kearney) but Leonardis stood out to me as a prospect and I can't seem to find much info on him around here. What have his other performances been like, and does he always play in the back or has he been tried in the middle or on a wing?

 

[Gollo]

Watts - I'm not writing him off yet. But, his ectomorphic nature doesn't help. He's clearly someone who just can't fill out like others can. Part of it lies i the head - I think he mentally struggles; plenty of scrawny kids try to crash packs and back into them but Watts just never would. You give Jack Watts the heart of Jake Spencer or Chris Dawes and he makes it - and well. I don't think putting on muscle would have solved it for Jack, but it would have helped. He's have had a little more confidence to be aggressive and hit the ball hard. Perhaps you could say Melbourne didn't do enough diligence and perhaps could have realised he was a fragile kid lacking the toughness required to make the grade - but that's just baseless speculation. What is for sure is that Watts has an incredibly natural read of the play, some really nice athletic traits and excellent footskills. If we can just get him to have some confidence I really think he can make the grade. But as a forward. He leads to some handy spots, he creates separation, he'll beat his defender at ground level and up the ground he's someone you trust to hit targets inside 50. I think Jack's best football has been played as a key forward and I really hope he gets another shot - 5-6 weeks straight to play with Hogan as that #2 guy. But Pedersen's success might hurt there. In defence Jack has a great intercept game but his defensive intensity prevents him from making it there and in the middle he's a great outside receiver and his skills help but lacks the two way running and spacial awareness to make it there. He's a forward - and I think if he gets a pure run at playing as a genuine forward he'll still make it.

I have a theory about Watts, that his footy would develop so rapidly if for one year he was played as a 3rd tall forward. Every game, he would like up alongside Hogan and Dawes, and for a year, play a role which is beneficial to the team success but has not much personal satisfaction. I just think, not only would it fix up any mental issues he has about playing tough, hard footy, it would teach him so much about playing as a forward. This would lead to him becoming a better key forward in the future. He would watch how Hogan goes about his role, identify his strengths and try to emulate that, as Hogan is such a smart forward - his marking, leading patterns, goal kicking and even his set-up play for others. IMO, Watts' body doesn't need to fill out enormously, he just needs to learn how to use his weight to an advantage, and become more positive about actually going into packs hard.

 

[Silvagnis]

If gold coast stay last and pick up Jacob than we'll take the best key forward shache if we miss on the jacob

Francis will be considered to add another tall mid/flanker to our 22. A few wanted McCarthy and Jaksch instead of Cripps and Menzel. Best talent thanks.

Who was the dwarf who spoiled Shache who had the sit and recovered to snap a goal across his body from 45?

Almost as good as the footage of Yarran outmarking Shaun McKernan in the champs.

 

[Vindicater]

Who are the best ruck prospects in this years draft and where do you see them falling come draft time.

Essendon may need to reach for a ruckman.