Skippos's Draft Resource 2016

[Skippos]

Thread no longer running. Sorry guys.

 

[Wizard17]

Good to have you back Skippos

IMO you have Korewha listed at 182cm he is 192cm

Hoping the Dogs can gain a player(s) who can kick bags. Who at this stage are the best players that would be around the dogs picks?

 

[grundog49]

Good to have you back Skippos

IMO you have Korewha listed at 182cm he is 192cm

Hoping the Dogs can gain a player(s) who can kick bags. Who at this stage are the best players that would be around the dogs picks?

Kerr is the one i think could be around your pick. Has kicked bags in the TAC and i would expect him to do the same in the u18 championships.

 

[Skippos]

Good to have you back Skippos

IMO you have Korewha listed at 182cm he is 192cm

Hoping the Dogs can gain a player(s) who can kick bags. Who at this stage are the best players that would be around the dogs picks?

Typo.

If you're looking for a goal kicker there's always going to be speculation and less security associated with a pick in the teens. Especially this early in the season I'd suggest that the blokes around that mark will fluctuate rapidly in response to performance. For now I think Strnadica could well be there and he's one I'd look at. Pat Kerr as mentioned above but he's very much a 2/3 guy ATM. Josh Battle probably doesn't last. Mitchell Carter could push his way up or go undrafted pending his season. Andrew Coombe could be around the mark as a 2/3 guy if he actually delivers on some potential.

 

[jjami15]

I can't help but be more interested in Josh Battle. Ran 3km @ 10.03 and from small viewing from Friday night he held his own and bagged a couple. Do you see him staying around that 7 range or like some others see him going higher? He seemed to get a lot out of the trip to the U.S. and does seems quite primed to have a big year. Possibly not someone the Lions would go for seeing we went for Schache last year but as you can see with Melbourne and Bombers now needing help for their young KPF I wouldn't cross it out.
.

 

[Skippos]

I can't help but be more interested in Josh Battle. Ran 3km @ 10.03 and from small viewing from Friday night he held his own and bagged a couple. Do you see him staying around that 7 range or like some others see him going higher? He seemed to get a lot out of the trip to the U.S. and does seems quite primed to have a big year. Possibly not someone the Lions would go for seeing we went for Schache last year but as you can see with Melbourne and Bombers now needing help for their young KPF I wouldn't cross it out.
.

I'd be lying if I said I'd seen as much of Battle as someone like Bishop, who'll give you a terrific analysis on him.

He certainly projects as an interesting type. I think he could conceivably be in that group pushing for #1 or he could slide into a second rounder - it all depends on his season. There's a lot to like but it's not all come together yet. The other concern with him is that he's in year 11 so he'll have to balance year 12 and his first year of AFL football. As a taller type the first year is when a lot of the development and learning is done so he could conceivably miss a bit of that.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Ainsworth has gone for a slide there Skip....Size the only reason?

 

[LittleG]

Great to see you back Skippos.

 

[JAMES_B_101]

Korewha is a very interesting one. What I have seen from him is pressure at high intensity when the ball is near him and good speed. I think his best position isn't down back, and he should be used as a wingman really.

 

[blueiris]

Do you think the Lions will go midfielders this year getting Seaton and Allison in the Lions midfield would be amazing

 

[Skippos]

Ainsworth has gone for a slide there Skip....Size the only reason?

I'm not that sure on him, quite simply. I need to see more of him. He's fleet footed but is he *that* quick? Is his kicking *that* good? Like Petracca, I'm wanting to see his impact through the middle before committing to a high evaluation of him. He could well be a Dion Prestia type - in fact, I suspect he will be; but with a better forward game and overhead game. But that a top 3-5 prospect? I'm not sure yet. IQ is terrific though. He's very much in my 'watch and see' pile.

Korewha is a very interesting one. What I have seen from him is pressure at high intensity when the ball is near him and good speed. I think his best position isn't down back, and he should be used as a wingman really.

I tend to agree. His development could go either way this year; it'll be fascinating to watch. I'm intrigued to see more of him as a third forward.

Do you think the Lions will go midfielders this year getting Seaton and Allison in the Lions midfield would be amazing

It depends on their confidence level in certain positions. And where McStay's future lies. If it's back - Schache needs a partner. I suspect they'll go best available; especially if Allison isn't the first pick they make.

 

[blueiris]

I'm not that sure on him, quite simply. I need to see more of him. He's fleet footed but is he *that* quick? Is his kicking *that* good? Like Petracca, I'm wanting to see his impact through the middle before committing to a high evaluation of him. He could well be a Dion Prestia type - in fact, I suspect he will be; but with a better forward game and overhead game. But that a top 3-5 prospect? I'm not sure yet. IQ is terrific though. He's very much in my 'watch and see' pile.



I tend to agree. His development could go either way this year; it'll be fascinating to watch. I'm intrigued to see more of him as a third forward.



It depends on their confidence level in certain positions. And where McStay's future lies. If it's back - Schache needs a partner. I suspect they'll go best available; especially if Allison isn't the first pick they make.

I think Leppitsch sees McStay as a defender with Gardiner Andrews Paparone and Cutler I suppose it depends on where we finish if Seton is available I'm all for him this year I don't think forwards really are a must right now with Walker Freeman Schache Close and swingman Hipwood already on our list we are still struggling in contested possessions so maybe a contested beast with some pace

 

[Skippos]

I think Leppitsch sees McStay as a defender with Gardiner Andrews Paparone and Cutler I suppose it depends on where we finish if Seton is available I'm all for him this year I don't think forwards really are a must right now with Walker Freeman Schache Close and swingman Hipwood already on our list we are still struggling in contested possessions so maybe a contested beast with some pace

There's a significant difference between 'forwards' and good forwards. There's a difference; good forwards win you games, poor forwards can be the reason you lose.

Close and Freeman were drafted in ranges that haven't produced a successful key forward for a long, long time. Nothing is an exact science in football but the one thing that does hold up to analysis is that key forwards are either found in the first round or through alternative means; mature age recruitment or alternative talent recruitment. Stock standard 18 year old year forwards taken outside the top 20 do not succeed, as a general rule. Looking at Freeman and Close thus far I'd consider Close as good as gone from a forward point of view and only with a hope of making it as a defender, and Freeman capable of getting to the level Walker is at now and no further.

Walker is not the answer. He brings the ball to ground, which has him ahead of some - but does little else. He will not be a franchise forward. As the #1 man while Schache develops, he struggles. As the #2 man, he's meagre at best. He's the kind of guy you want playing magoos who can come up and provide a contest in case of injury.

Quantity does not equal security or quality. Unless something comes from nowhere, you will need to find another forward. That may be McStay. It may be Paparone working his opponent into the ground. It may even be Andrews. But it will not be Freeman, Close or Walker. Hipwood could be the man if you like him forward.

If Hipwood projects as a defender (in which case there's an oversupply there. I believe Hipwood, Paparone, Andrews, Gardiner, McStay and Cutler all make the grade as defenders) then you'll need to find a friend for Schache immediately.

 

[jjami15]

There's a significant difference between 'forwards' and good forwards. There's a difference; good forwards win you games, poor forwards can be the reason you lose.

Close and Freeman were drafted in ranges that haven't produced a successful key forward for a long, long time. Nothing is an exact science in football but the one thing that does hold up to analysis is that key forwards are either found in the first round or through alternative means; mature age recruitment or alternative talent recruitment. Stock standard 18 year old year forwards taken outside the top 20 do not succeed, as a general rule. Looking at Freeman and Close thus far I'd consider Close as good as gone from a forward point of view and only with a hope of making it as a defender, and Freeman capable of getting to the level Walker is at now and no further.

Walker is not the answer. He brings the ball to ground, which has him ahead of some - but does little else. He will not be a franchise forward. As the #1 man while Schache develops, he struggles. As the #2 man, he's meagre at best. He's the kind of guy you want playing magoos who can come up and provide a contest in case of injury.

Quantity does not equal security or quality. Unless something comes from nowhere, you will need to find another forward. That may be McStay. It may be Paparone working his opponent into the ground. It may even be Andrews. But it will not be Freeman, Close or Walker. Hipwood could be the man if you like him forward.

If Hipwood projects as a defender (in which case there's an oversupply there. I believe Hipwood, Paparone, Andrews, Gardiner, McStay and Cutler all make the grade as defenders) then you'll need to find a friend for Schache immediately.

An excellent summation of our KPP on our list and couldn't agree more with what you have said which leads to the interest in Battle. Sadly I think we will have 1-3 by the end of the year and will be looking to see how Battle goes throughout the season to see if he projects as going around that mark or if Scwab has the balls to trade down to his mark. GWS currently have three first round picks (Carlton, Collingwood and theirs) and most probably Freo's to get McCarthy back west. Lot of water to go yet though.

 

[MightyDons4]

Hey Skippos love reading your power rankings + draft profiles each year. Just wondering what you see in Josh Rotham to have him in your top 5? Cheers.

 

[mattyc75]

hi skippos
what are josh rothams stand out features?dont think the eagles will snag a kpd with our first but I would like us to pick one up at some stage

 

[Chuck01]

Probably not going to see as much of me as in other years but thought I'd still make a thread and update/post when I can. As the season emerges I'll start writing profiles and making comparisons, but for now I'm happy to answer questions/take feedback based on my current top 50/anyone outside it.

Full discloure though - my sample base for now is all SA players and those juniors who played recorded football in some capacity. There are players out there getting hyped that I simply haven't been able to see. I'll be able to help regarding most players, but with regards to say, a Josh Daicos, I'm no use to you! For those I've seen little of I'm just taking in the opinions of those I trust. As the season goes on I'll be exposed to them and form an opinion.

Without further ado (and full disclosure that the top 50 will change rapidly as I see things I like/dislike in players)

I still like Foley from the Western Jets. His practice match form was good and his season opener of around 30 touches against Oakleigh was impressive.

 

[Skippos]

Hey Skippos love reading your power rankings + draft profiles each year. Just wondering what you see in Josh Rotham to have him in your top 5? Cheers.

hi skippos
what are josh rothams stand out features?dont think the eagles will snag a kpd with our first but I would like us to pick one up at some stage

I'm a big wrap on Rotham. Has a few similarites with Jake Lever but he's more athletic. I'd be interested in his testing but I think he's a very capable defender closing down leads and is clearly very quick by mind; zones off well, runs the right lines and reads the flight well. Spoiling game is good and decisions on when to mark/spoil good. Good intercept game/offensive game. Skills are good.

He's just a pure footballer for mine. Would love an extra inch on him but currently options are open and I'd like to see him play around the ground a bit more. I just look at him compared to the others on the board and, based on what I saw last year, I'm very confident he walks into an AFL side and makes a spot his own for 10 years. Pure footballer.

 

[Dan12]

There's a significant difference between 'forwards' and good forwards. There's a difference; good forwards win you games, poor forwards can be the reason you lose.

Close and Freeman were drafted in ranges that haven't produced a successful key forward for a long, long time. Nothing is an exact science in football but the one thing that does hold up to analysis is that key forwards are either found in the first round or through alternative means; mature age recruitment or alternative talent recruitment. Stock standard 18 year old year forwards taken outside the top 20 do not succeed, as a general rule. Looking at Freeman and Close thus far I'd consider Close as good as gone from a forward point of view and only with a hope of making it as a defender, and Freeman capable of getting to the level Walker is at now and no further.

Walker is not the answer. He brings the ball to ground, which has him ahead of some - but does little else. He will not be a franchise forward. As the #1 man while Schache develops, he struggles. As the #2 man, he's meagre at best. He's the kind of guy you want playing magoos who can come up and provide a contest in case of injury.

Quantity does not equal security or quality. Unless something comes from nowhere, you will need to find another forward. That may be McStay. It may be Paparone working his opponent into the ground. It may even be Andrews. But it will not be Freeman, Close or Walker. Hipwood could be the man if you like him forward.

If Hipwood projects as a defender (in which case there's an oversupply there. I believe Hipwood, Paparone, Andrews, Gardiner, McStay and Cutler all make the grade as defenders) then you'll need to find a friend for Schache immediately.

Skippos I'm a big fan of yours but I'm not sure this summation of our KPP is entirely accurate. My main question- why would the club have guys like Close/Freeman/Walker on the list if they think there's zero chance of them becoming a serviceable AFL standard key forward?

Close has played 10 games as a forward and looked okay before his ACL. How has he suddenly become no hope of making it as a key forward?
Freeman has better judgement of the ball in flight, speed, marking, clean hands, height, game sense and a decent set shot routine than Walker, who hasn't been too bad this year. Has a huge amount to work on though, but the raw talent is there. Just my thoughts, but the main thing is to play these guys this year to get a good read on what our needs are, what positions they will end up in and if they'll make it.
Are there any Crameri/Gunston/Tom Lynch (Adelaide) type 3rd tall forwards in the draft this year? I think we need that connecting type player.

 

[jjami15]

Skippos I'm a big fan of yours but I'm not sure this summation of our KPP is entirely accurate. My main question- why would the club have guys like Close/Freeman/Walker on the list if they think there's zero chance of them becoming a serviceable AFL standard key forward?

Close has played 10 games as a forward and looked okay before his ACL. How has he suddenly become no hope of making it as a key forward?
Freeman has better judgement of the ball in flight, speed, marking, clean hands, height, game sense and a decent set shot routine than Walker, who hasn't been too bad this year. Has a huge amount to work on though, but the raw talent is there. Just my thoughts, but the main thing is to play these guys this year to get a good read on what our needs are, what positions they will end up in and if they'll make it.
Are there any Crameri/Gunston/Tom Lynch (Adelaide) type 3rd tall forwards in the draft this year? I think we need that connecting type player.

Josh Battle, Patrick Kerr, Ezekial Frank and Allison also plays HFF at times and with his height might be able to play a third type tall.

 

[Fatcat08]

There's a significant difference between 'forwards' and good forwards. There's a difference; good forwards win you games, poor forwards can be the reason you lose.

Close and Freeman were drafted in ranges that haven't produced a successful key forward for a long, long time. Nothing is an exact science in football but the one thing that does hold up to analysis is that key forwards are either found in the first round or through alternative means; mature age recruitment or alternative talent recruitment. Stock standard 18 year old year forwards taken outside the top 20 do not succeed, as a general rule. Looking at Freeman and Close thus far I'd consider Close as good as gone from a forward point of view and only with a hope of making it as a defender, and Freeman capable of getting to the level Walker is at now and no further.

Walker is not the answer. He brings the ball to ground, which has him ahead of some - but does little else. He will not be a franchise forward. As the #1 man while Schache develops, he struggles. As the #2 man, he's meagre at best. He's the kind of guy you want playing magoos who can come up and provide a contest in case of injury.

Quantity does not equal security or quality. Unless something comes from nowhere, you will need to find another forward. That may be McStay. It may be Paparone working his opponent into the ground. It may even be Andrews. But it will not be Freeman, Close or Walker. Hipwood could be the man if you like him forward.

If Hipwood projects as a defender (in which case there's an oversupply there. I believe Hipwood, Paparone, Andrews, Gardiner, McStay and Cutler all make the grade as defenders) then you'll need to find a friend for Schache immediately.

I'd imagine that our first pick this year will be selected with an eye on next years draft and how Connor Ballenden is shaping up over the course of this year. Was measured at 198cm not that long ago. I'd imagine that a combo of Schache and Walker/Close/Freeman/Hammelman will be ok for the next few years with Ballenden to come in as that second KPF in 3-4 years.

 

[Skippos]

Skippos I'm a big fan of yours but I'm not sure this summation of our KPP is entirely accurate. My main question- why would the club have guys like Close/Freeman/Walker on the list if they think there's zero chance of them becoming a serviceable AFL standard key forward?

Close has played 10 games as a forward and looked okay before his ACL. How has he suddenly become no hope of making it as a key forward?
Freeman has better judgement of the ball in flight, speed, marking, clean hands, height, game sense and a decent set shot routine than Walker, who hasn't been too bad this year. Has a huge amount to work on though, but the raw talent is there. Just my thoughts, but the main thing is to play these guys this year to get a good read on what our needs are, what positions they will end up in and if they'll make it.

I'll be very upfront and say that the predominant basis of my assumption/prediction is from previous data. Perhaps it's my economics background, but I like to look at common trends and at times take a moneyball-esque approach to drafting. If data shows that taking outside mids early is often fatal - then it's probably worth keeping in the back of your head. I believe there is a trend regarding key forwards and drafting them early. Clearly the top tier ones exhibit identifiable and transferable traits that have recruiters confident in their assessment.

I made a series of posts about it last year. In the interests of (not writing the same essay twice) I'll link to them for those interested.

Post one
Post two

Brett Anderson (who is terrific - for the people who follow mine/others on here's work, he's one you should place lots of stock in; rarely wrong) also wrote a very good article on it in the last year or two but I can't for the life of me find it.

The short version of what I'm saying is that development of key forwards over the past 10 or so years has indicated that relevant key forwards enter the system through one of the following ways

- Early draft
- Slipping in the draft because they're peanuts (Jack Darling)
- Concessions (Cameron, Bruce)
- Coming in as a mature ager (Ben Brown, Tippett, Dixon (who's an interesting case, really), Podsiadly etc.. Though Brown was passed over)
- Alternative talent (Jenkins)

I cannot think of one AFL standard key forward to have been drafted outside the top 20 or so as an 18 year old to have actually made the grade. The jury is still out on James Stewart, Shane Kersten and Sam Reid.

That's the basis for my assessment on your key forwards. Subjectively looking at them I never saw it forward with Close, Walker is a one trick pony who'll provide a contest which is better than you had before but not a long termer and Freeman - well he's the only one who's a chance for mine (later entrant to the system and to an extent a concession selection). But even then I've not seen much to like from a long term potential perspective in his game.

I'm suggesting that some AFL recruiters don't buy into this trend. That's their decision - and I suspect that despite this 'evidence' - they see enough in players to believe they'll buck the trend. But past data indicates that every time - they're wrong. I think they're catching on though - last year only two 18 year old 'key forwards' were drafted outside the top 25 or so, Hulett and Allen - who are both probably third talls at the next level and in Allen's case, I suspect he'd have gone much higher 5 years earlier. In 2014 there were only two as well - Howard and McKenzie, the latter of whom I suspect goes higher 5 years earlier (and if there weren't character concerns).

Are there any Crameri/Gunston/Tom Lynch (Adelaide) type 3rd tall forwards in the draft this year? I think we need that connecting type player.

Patrick Kerr's the one who comes to mind right now. Jake Waterman who's an eagle f/s has some similarities to Crameri. Andrew Coombe from SA could go either way but that's a role I think he plays at the next level if he develops - Gunston-esque perhaps. Ezekiel Frank is an exciting third tall type - think a more traditional version of Jurrah. Korewha can play a variety of roles. Zurhaar looked okay in the role last year but is playing more in defense now.

 

[Skippos]

I'd imagine that our first pick this year will be selected with an eye on next years draft and how Connor Ballenden is shaping up over the course of this year. Was measured at 198cm not that long ago. I'd imagine that a combo of Schache and Walker/Close/Freeman/Hammelman will be ok for the next few years with Ballenden to come in as that second KPF in 3-4 years.

When I made this thread - there was a Brisbane academy forward sitting in the back of my head but I couldn't for the life of me remember his name. The weekend made it rather obvious; it was Ballenden. I agree; most decisions you make should be with Ballenden in mind. If the point of view is that he's a potential franchise forward and partner to Schache, provided you're confident he'll be ready for your window - it probably isn't a need you should cover this year. He's one I'd forgotten in my initial assessment.

 

[Fatcat08]

When I made this thread - there was a Brisbane academy forward sitting in the back of my head but I couldn't for the life of me remember his name. The weekend made it rather obvious; it was Ballenden. I agree; most decisions you make should be with Ballenden in mind. If the point of view is that he's a potential franchise forward and partner to Schache, provided you're confident he'll be ready for your window - it probably isn't a need you should cover this year. He's one I'd forgotten in my initial assessment.

Tbh he's more likely to be here for our next windows than most of our current mids unfortunately. Unless keays, mathieson, rolls and Allison can step up quickly and push guys like hardwood, Lester, beams and bewick out and be major upgrades, we may play finals in 3 years time but we won't have a window

 

[Turbocat]

Skippos ... 30 something for Witherden.. Ive read him to be considered an earlier pick.... just a very early overview of him if you would?