So who to back in the Ukraine ...?

[GuruJane]

The (apparent) Russian stooge Yanvkovich ...?

Or the pro west Yushchenko?

It does seem the Russians helped to rig the vote ....

How much difference does it make that W is backing Yushcenko?

LionelL - you must have a view on this?

 

[MightyFighting]

I'd say it's all over bar the shooting.

 

[Hawkforce]

Who the hell cares about hundreds of thousands of people pouring onto the streets of a recently totalitarian State to demand accountability and due process?

I'm sure the redoubtable RogerC with his impeccable "whatreallyhappened" sources, will be on the case to explain why the population of the Ukraine has risen up in popular velvet revolution solidarity while the US, contrary to RogerC's impeccable sources, are incapable of seeing that they are the victim of electoral fraud.

Silly silly Eastern Bloc countries!!!

Don't you read "whatreallyhappened"?!?!

What the hell do they know about electoral fraud and the repression of free will?

 

[Leper]

I'll have $20 on Brisbane, if they are playing there.

This makes me want a Stolichnaya now.

 

[dugrene]

Who the hell cares about hundreds of thousands of people pouring onto the streets of a recently totalitarian State to demand accountability and due process?

I'm sure the redoubtable RogerC with his impeccable "whatreallyhappened" sources, will be on the case to explain why the population of the Ukraine has risen up in popular velvet revolution solidarity while the US, contrary to RogerC's impeccable sources, are incapable of seeing that they are the victim of electoral fraud.

Silly silly Eastern Bloc countries!!!

Don't you read "whatreallyhappened"?!?!

What the hell do they know about electoral fraud and the repression of free will?

Hey Hawkforce Look here the subject is covered in depth.

 

[Lionel Lyon]

The (apparent) Russian stooge Yanvkovich ...?

Or the pro west Yushchenko?

It does seem the Russians helped to rig the vote ....

How much difference does it make that W is backing Yushcenko?

LionelL - you must have a view on this?

Hello Jane. Yes, I have been following this one. I don't have much time to talk about this so I will keep it brief.

First, there is no doubt that rigging took place, but it was done by both sides. The press is talking about the dubious pro-Yanukovych result in places like Donetsk, but passes over in silence the equally dubious results from Yushchenko strongholds in the western part of the country (e.g. Ternopil).

Secondy, the press is setting up a skewed dichotomy of the situation there: viz., enlightened, freedom-loving, orange-wearing, warm and cuddly Yushchenko supporters spontaneously and heroically standing up to the drab, repressed, backward-looking, and totalitarian Yanukovych supporters.

In actuality, the south and the east of the country, that voted for Yanukovych are the most affluent, industrialized, cosmopolitan, populous and educated parts of the country. Though he's no saint, they see Yanukovych not as a "Russian stooge" but a guarantor of stability, prosperity and respect for minority rights. They see that smoother relations with Russia make perfect sense given that Russia is by far their biggest trade partner. What can the EU, with all its tarriffs and quotas, offer the mega steel-producers of the Donbass region?

Yushchenko, drawing most of his support from the poor western regions (the center of the country is more divided), has whipped up his supporters using nationalism, xenophobia and class jealousy of eastern wealth. His demagoguery and "revolutionary" antics after the election--e.g. his constant harping on about rigged elections days before the elections even took place, his declaration of his own presidency, and his threat of a civil war if he does not get his way--are perhaps illustrative of his methods.

Yushchenko has been dubbed pro-Western for one reason only: he is anti-Russian. That's it. The media stay quiet on the fact that he has campaigned on the promise to remove the Ukrainian troops in Iraq deployed by Yanukovych mentor, Leonid Kuchma. The neocon-Brzezinskyite vision of encircling Russia with an array of unfriendly governments overrides the advantages brought by a handful of Ukrainian troops in Iraq. Still, while Yushchenko is backed by circles in the US, it's not yet clear to me that W's admin. is 100% behind him. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Anyway, here are some articles that go against the general story that is being purveyed:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1360296,00.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/spectator2/spec506.html

http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/News/Trifkovic/NewsViews.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/ukraine/story/0,15569,1360951,00.html

I hope you find them interesting.

Regards.

 

[utility]

Nice post LL.

The response from one Ukrainian I read was it's a choice between a criminal (Yanukovich) and a thief (Yushchenko), so neither are saints.

I read Yanukovich has been convicted and sent to prision twice before, once for rape. Kuchma has been linked to politically motivated murders, but has not been convicted of any. Both Yanukovich and Kuchma are linked with the same mafia in Dnepropetrovsk.

I don't think the US will play a major role in this, at least not overtly. It is more of a tug of war between Russia and the EU. A victory to Yushchenko after the revolution in Georgia last year would make the authoritarian rulers in the former Soviet countries a little more nervous... this in turn potentially reduces the power Russia wields.

Oh, and I found this article interesting to read too:
http://charter97.org/eng/news/2004/11/26/bondarenko

 

[Lionel Lyon]

I don't think the US will play a major role in this, at least not overtly.

I think there is some truth in what you say. Though there are some neocons and interventionist Democrats like George Soros, Zbigniew Brzezinsky and others who want actively to isolate Russia, and have been funding Yushchenko, I am not yet 100% sure that W's admin. is fully committed to him. For example, that this level-headed article on Ukraine appeared in the National Review suggests that some neoconservatives close to the admin. might not be all that convinced about Yushchenko. Time will tell.

It is more of a tug of war between Russia and the EU. A victory to Yushchenko after the revolution in Georgia last year would make the authoritarian rulers in the former Soviet countries a little more nervous... this in turn potentially reduces the power Russia wields.

Oh, and I found this article interesting to read too:
http://charter97.org/eng/news/2004/11/26/bondarenko

Interesting indeed, though I think this fellow probably represents the Belarusan minority.

 

[Bombers 2003]

Interesting to see the Donetsk basin region supported the 'pro-russian' candidate.

 

[GuruJane]

Hello Jane. Yes, I have been following this one. I don't have much time to talk about this so I will keep it brief.

First, there is no doubt that rigging took place, but it was done by both sides. The press is talking about the dubious pro-Yanukovych result in places like Donetsk, but passes over in silence the equally dubious results from Yushchenko strongholds in the western part of the country (e.g. Ternopil).

Secondy, the press is setting up a skewed dichotomy of the situation there: viz., enlightened, freedom-loving, orange-wearing, warm and cuddly Yushchenko supporters spontaneously and heroically standing up to the drab, repressed, backward-looking, and totalitarian Yanukovych supporters.

In actuality, the south and the east of the country, that voted for Yanukovych are the most affluent, industrialized, cosmopolitan, populous and educated parts of the country. Though he's no saint, they see Yanukovych not as a "Russian stooge" but a guarantor of stability, prosperity and respect for minority rights. They see that smoother relations with Russia make perfect sense given that Russia is by far their biggest trade partner. What can the EU, with all its tarriffs and quotas, offer the mega steel-producers of the Donbass region?

Yushchenko, drawing most of his support from the poor western regions (the center of the country is more divided), has whipped up his supporters using nationalism, xenophobia and class jealousy of eastern wealth. His demagoguery and "revolutionary" antics after the election--e.g. his constant harping on about rigged elections days before the elections even took place, his declaration of his own presidency, and his threat of a civil war if he does not get his way--are perhaps illustrative of his methods.

Yushchenko has been dubbed pro-Western for one reason only: he is anti-Russian. That's it. The media stay quiet on the fact that he has campaigned on the promise to remove the Ukrainian troops in Iraq deployed by Yanukovych mentor, Leonid Kuchma. The neocon-Brzezinskyite vision of encircling Russia with an array of unfriendly governments overrides the advantages brought by a handful of Ukrainian troops in Iraq. Still, while Yushchenko is backed by circles in the US, it's not yet clear to me that W's admin. is 100% behind him. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Anyway, here are some articles that go against the general story that is being purveyed:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1360296,00.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/spectator2/spec506.html

http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/News/Trifkovic/NewsViews.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/ukraine/story/0,15569,1360951,00.html

I hope you find them interesting.

Regards.

Good stuff LL. Thank you. Imo the truth usually lies somewhere near the middle in these situatos. But it's hard to make a judgement out of the day media as reported in google news!

Am interested that Putin has seemed to be backing off an inititial belligerant posture in favour of Yanukovych into saying it has to be settled legally?... wonder would this be because of W's increased authority since the election and the firming up of his admin?

btw have you read Dennis Ross's book yet? Am only up to the Wye Agreement and am already gobsmacked by things I didn't know were going on behind the scenes.

 

[Pessimistic]

Amazing that the USA are preaching 'electoral integrity' to them

 

[Lionel Lyon]

Good stuff LL. Thank you. Imo the truth usually lies somewhere near the middle in these situatos. But it's hard to make a judgement out of the day media as reported in google news!

I found this report by the British Helsinki Human Rights Group very interesting reading. It's quite a departure from the standard line we see nowadays, and from a group with no discernable vested interest in the matter either...

Am interested that Putin has seemed to be backing off an inititial belligerant posture in favour of Yanukovych into saying it has to be settled legally?...wonder would this be because of W's increased authority since the election and the firming up of his admin?

It may be that Putin has been advised that Russian interests and relations with Ukraine are by nature so deep and intertwined that even a Yushchenko victory is not the end of Russian prospects there. Perhaps he sees he need not put all his eggs in the Yanukovych basket. That is the view pushed by advisor Denis Trifonov. If Yanukovych is the "pro-Russian" guy, then Putin already has a sizebale proportion of the Ukrainian population "in the bag"--even the pro-Yushchenko exit polls put the Yanukovych vote at about 44% (and a 44% that controls much of the country's wealth). Maybe Putin backed off because he sees he's not in such a bad position.

btw have you read Dennis Ross's book yet? Am only up to the Wye Agreement and am already gobsmacked by things I didn't know were going on behind the scenes.

No I haven't even gotten it. Alas, I am too busy with other things nowadays. Maybe you can give us the Cliffs notes version of it.

 

[BlueMark]

Russian Stooge or American stooge......some choice.

 

[Pessimistic]

This one from the age makes you think.

We have a tendency to downplay our own faults on the world stage


The West closes its eyes to the truth in Ukraine
November 30, 2004

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Did you know enormous rallies have been held in Kiev in support of the Prime Minister, asks John Laughland.

There was a time when the left was in favour of revolution, while the right stood unambiguously for the authority of the state. Not any more. In the past week, two British newspapers - the anti-Iraq war Independent and the pro-Iraq war Telegraph - excitedly announced a "revolution" in Ukraine, while stateside, the right-wing Washington Times welcomed "the people versus the power".

Whether it is Albania in 1997, Serbia in 2000, Georgia last November or Ukraine now, the Western media regularly peddle the same fairytale about how youthful demonstrators manage to bring down an authoritarian regime, simply by attending a rock concert in a central square. Two million anti-war demonstrators can stream though the streets of London and be politically ignored, but a few tens of thousands in central Kiev are proclaimed to be "the people", while the Ukrainian police, courts and government institutions are discounted as instruments of oppression.

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AdvertisementThe Western imagination is now so gripped by its own mythology of popular revolution that we have become dangerously tolerant of blatant double standards in media reporting. Enormous rallies have been held in Kiev in support of the Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovich, but they are rarely shown on our TV screens: if their existence is admitted, Yanukovich supporters are denigrated as having been "bussed in". The demonstrations in favour of Viktor Yushchenko have laser lights, plasma screens, sophisticated sound systems, rock concerts, tents to camp in and huge quantities of orange clothing; yet we happily dupe ourselves that they are spontaneous.

Or again, we are told that a 96 per cent turnout in Donetsk, the home town of Viktor Yanukovich, is proof of electoral fraud. But apparently turnouts of more than 80 per cent in areas that support Viktor Yushchenko are not. Nor are actual scores for Yushchenko of well over 90 per cent in three regions, which Yanukovich achieved in only two. And whereas Yanukovich's final official score was 54 per cent, the Western-backed President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, officially polled 96.24 per cent of the vote in his country in January. The observers who now denounce the Ukrainian election welcomed that result in Georgia, saying that it "brought the country closer to meeting international standards".

We have become dangerously tolerant of blatant double standards in media reporting.The blindness extends even to the posters that the "pro-democracy" group, Pora, has plastered all over Ukraine, depicting a jackboot crushing a beetle, an allegory of what Pora wants to do to its opponents.

Such dehumanisation of enemies has well-known antecedents - not least in Nazi-occupied Ukraine itself, when pre-emptive war was waged against the Red Plague emanating from Moscow - yet these posters have passed without comment. Pora continues to be presented as an innocent band of students having fun in spite of the fact that - like its sister organisations in Serbia and Georgia - Pora is an organisation created and financed by Washington.

It gets worse. Plunging into the crowd of Yushchenko supporters in Independence Square after the first round of the election, I met two members of Una-Unso, a neo-Nazi party whose emblem is a swastika. They were unembarrassed about their allegiance, perhaps because last year Yushchenko and his allies stood up for the Socialist party newspaper, Silski Visti, after it ran an anti-Semitic article claiming that Jews had invaded Ukraine alongside the Wehrmacht in 1941.

On September 19, 2004, Yushchenko's ally, Alexander Moroz, told JTA-Global Jewish News: "I have defended Silski Visti and will continue to do so. I personally think the argument . . . citing 400,000 Jews in the SS is incorrect, but I am not in a position to know all the facts."

Yushchenko and Moroz, meanwhile, cited a court order closing the paper as evidence of the Government's desire to muzzle the media. In any other country, support for anti-Semites would be shocking; in this case, our media do not even mention it.

Voters in the United States, Britain and Australia have witnessed their governments lying brazenly about Iraq for more than a year in the run-up to war, and with impunity. This is an enormous dysfunction in our own so-called democratic system. Our tendency to paint political fantasies onto countries such as Ukraine that are tabula rasa for us, and to present the West as a fairy godmother swooping in to save the day, is not only a way to salve a guilty conscience about our own political shortcomings; it also blinds us to the reality of continued brazen Western intervention in the democratic politics of other countries.

 

[pazza]

If they allowed the video evidence in the court trial, the incumbent looks screwed.

From what I saw:

Voters of the Opposition being physically tormented by Government supporters outside of the election booth;

1 bloke casting 10 votes exactly the same way;

Another bloke being given 2 ballot papers and marking them in full view of the camera;

Buses of Government supporters being taken to as many booths as possible to cast their votes.

Absolutely alarming footage, if you believe in the democratic process.

 

[Mr Q]

So Jane, how many WMDs do they have in the Ukraine?

 

[Pessimistic]

If they allowed the video evidence in the court trial, the incumbent looks screwed.

From what I saw:

Voters of the Opposition being physically tormented by Government supporters outside of the election booth;

1 bloke casting 10 votes exactly the same way;

Another bloke being given 2 ballot papers and marking them in full view of the camera;

Buses of Government supporters being taken to as many booths as possible to cast their votes.

Absolutely alarming footage, if you believe in the democratic process.

Good reason for video footage not to be relied upon - it could have been footage of anything.

 

[jim boy]

If they allowed the video evidence in the court trial, the incumbent looks screwed.

?? The incumbent is Viktor Yanukovych who is retiring.

 

[Lionel Lyon]

Here's a really good electoral map with the election results by province.

I was going to post the map, but it's too big.

 

[jim boy]

I found this report by the British Helsinki Human Rights Group very interesting reading. It's quite a departure from the standard line we see nowadays, and from a group with no discernable vested interest in the matter either...

You might want to read this http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1362333,00.html

 

[dan warna]

If they allowed the video evidence in the court trial, the incumbent looks screwed.

From what I saw:

Voters of the Opposition being physically tormented by Government supporters outside of the election booth;

1 bloke casting 10 votes exactly the same way;

Another bloke being given 2 ballot papers and marking them in full view of the camera;

Buses of Government supporters being taken to as many booths as possible to cast their votes.

Absolutely alarming footage, if you believe in the democratic process.

mmm the US tortures the opposition in places like guantanamo, and we've seen african americans and other minorities dissuaded from voting

sounds like texas and florida

would be interesting to see how the new election goes.

 

[Lionel Lyon]

You might want to read this http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1362333,00.html

I read that this morning, actually. OK, I was unaware that Laughland was connected to this BHHRG and so I retract the bit about "no vested interest." Independently of this revelation, though, it was a stupid thing to say anyway, because most of these groups have some kind of an interest one way or other.

Be that as it may, what is the thrust of David Aaronovitch's attack on Laughland in the end? Basically, it is: "Laughland knows this guy called Sanders. Now Sanders knows this Canadian guy called Black. Now let's talk all about Black." Using such a methodology, you could bury anybody.

He attacks Laughland for having "variously queried the idea that...the Serbs behaved so very savagely in Kosovo etc." Surely Aaronovitch must know that it is common knowledge that Serb action in Kosovo was exaggerated by the media...The media themselves say it.

(I snipped the Belarus thing, but the article I think Aaronovitch is referring to is this one. You can tell me what you think of it.)

His other "crime" is being a Europhobe...

At the end of the day, the basic gist of the now tainted BHHRG's report still cannot easily be dismissed.

I explain:

The Opposition's key complaint has been that Donetsk had a voter turnout of 96%, 96.2% of whom voted for Yanukovych.

The western parts of the country's turnout was also an inordinate "about 80%" in some regions (I cannot confirm this on an official table, but Opposition supporters I have spoken to say it is correct). It's not as high as 96%, though.

That 96.2% of these Donetsk voters voted for Yanukovych is not challenged by the Opposition, given that in the three provinces--Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv--the support for Yushchenko was 93.53%, 93.44%, 91.79% respectively.

So I propose a recalculation, based on the figures no one challenges:

(data taken from pro-Opposition site I posted)

Current Donetsk total for Yanukovych based on 96% voter turnout:
3,570,710

Adjusted Donetsk total for Yanukovych based on a hypothetical 80% turnout:
(3570710/0.96)x(0.80)=2,975,591

That is a difference (drop) of: 595,119 votes

Conclusion: Yanukovych still wins the whole country.

(given that the difference nationally was: 14,966,336 -- 14,154,153 == 812,183 votes )

Nobody's made a mention of this. It's just good guys v. bad.

Finally, it's clear why a super-neocon interventionist like Aaronovitch would go after an Old Conservative like Laughland. Eighteen months ago, he probably was doing the same against those who doubted that Iraq had WMD...

 

[jim boy]

Don't worry I'm no fan of Aaronovitch and I agree that his article was based more on aspersions than on the cold currency of fact. But as always, it is important to hear both sides of the argument.

Just about all elections carry rumours of vote rigging, look at the current Romanian elections, or even the US elections.

Personally I'm wary of declaring anything about anybody in the Ukraine, I just don't now the situation well enough. However one thing that struck me ever since the election was the apparent unrestricted access the opposition have had to push their case on the world media. With mass protests, stage and large video screens, the oppostion seem fairly unrestricted, which would be surprising if the government were really pulling out all the stops to win this one.

What is clear is also that Ukraine is deeply divided and highly polarised and that whatever the true result would have been, it was always going to end into serious accusations of election malpractice.

 

[Lionel Lyon]

But as always, it is important to hear both sides of the argument.

Agreed. Kudos to The Guardian, too, for publishing both Laughland and Aaronovitch. That's a commitment to free speech if not anything else.

 

[GuruJane]

Woops, stuff-ed up!