Analysis Some perspective amidst the chaos

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WallyStringhaus

Club Legend
Aug 27, 2015
1,150
5,280
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I am under no illusions that we find ourselves in a predicament at the moment but things can and will turn around very quickly.

Consider the following when judging this team;

We won a Premiership with a team with a total games experience of 1807. The last team to make a Grand Final with that much inexperience was the Dees in 2000 and they got beaten by 10 goals. Our boys took on a finals hardened team with 2500 games worth of experience, multiple Premiership players and outworked them on the biggest stage of all.

Look at the teams that were around us on the Ladder in 2013/2014;

Melbourne – Round 1, 2018 – 1851 Games experience

St.Kilda – Round 1, 2018 – 1801 Games experience

Carlton – Round 1, 2018 – 1832 Games experience

Gold Coast – Round 1, 2018 – 1762 Games experience

None of these teams have even played a final yet, let alone won the whole bloody thing! Why? Because history shows us that lists with that much experience sit around the mid to lower rungs of the ladder and are pushing to make the finals. We realistically should be lumped in with these teams but we managed to break the mould thanks to a very gifted senior coach and a playing group that ‘bought in’ and played some breathtaking footy at the most important time of the year. We broke the freaking system guys and we should always keep that in perspective.

In Round 1 our boys had played a collective 1510 games. With 500 less than what GWS had on the park is it any wonder we got belted? Same with yesterday, The Eagles had 12 guys with over 120 games played, we had 5 (One of which was in his 2nd game with us). It’s not a level playing field at the moment and the scoreboard is reflecting it.

The Contested Ball:

This is obviously the area where we have seen the biggest drop off but again, when looked at with a bit of perspective it’s easy to see why. Yesterday there were 11 players who had 3 CP’s or less…9 of them had a red, white and blue jumper on. Compare this with the finals series from 2016;

Vs WCE – 10 players under 4 CP’s – 4 Dogs (including injured Jong) and 6 Eagles

Vs Hawks – 8 players under 4 CP’s – 2 Dogs and 6 Hawks

Vs GWS – 6 players under 4 CP’s – 1 Dog and 5 Giants

Vs Swans – 7 players under 4 CP’s – 3 Dogs and 4 Swans

Our bottom end clearly isn’t holding as well due to a mix of inexperience or playing blokes to cover injuries who are just not up to it.

We are really missing some competitive beasts at the moment, if we look at the top end of the CP scale during that September run it becomes clear what we are missing;

Liber – 12, 12, 9, 15

Clay – 12, 9, 10, 8

Moyd – 9, 4, 5, 11

Picken – 9, 13, 11, 10

Toyd – 8, 9, 9, 9

These guys are proving not that easy to replace and nor should they, they are all gun footballers. I have confidence that Wallis can come in and fill a void but until Liam, Clay, Tom, Marcus and Dale get back to full health we will be up against it for a while.

Lots of people like to compare us to the Hawks of 2008 but I see us more like the Hawks of 2017. They lost some top end experience (Lewis/Mitchell, Murphy/Boyd), had some bad runs with injury and lost 3 of their first 6 games by over 75 points to sit 17th on the ladder with a % of 65. By the end of the year they sat a game and a half out of the finals and hit this season full of promise. We saw at the end of 2014 how quickly fortunes can change…it will change again. Bevo is a very smart man, he is sorting the wheat from the chaff at the moment to see who is up to it and who is not. I’d suggest that guys like Webb, Dale and Williams who have been on the fringe for a while, along with players such as Daniel, Biggs, Wallis, Red, Boyd and Dahl who should be on top of their games by now would want to lift and lift big time...Enjoy the ride fellas!
 
I am under no illusions that we find ourselves in a predicament at the moment but things can and will turn around very quickly.

Consider the following when judging this team;

We won a Premiership with a team with a total games experience of 1807. The last team to make a Grand Final with that much inexperience was the Dees in 2000 and they got beaten by 10 goals. Our boys took on a finals hardened team with 2500 games worth of experience, multiple Premiership players and outworked them on the biggest stage of all.

Look at the teams that were around us on the Ladder in 2013/2014;

Melbourne – Round 1, 2018 – 1851 Games experience

St.Kilda – Round 1, 2018 – 1801 Games experience

Carlton – Round 1, 2018 – 1832 Games experience

Gold Coast – Round 1, 2018 – 1762 Games experience

None of these teams have even played a final yet, let alone won the whole bloody thing! Why? Because history shows us that lists with that much experience sit around the mid to lower rungs of the ladder and are pushing to make the finals. We realistically should be lumped in with these teams but we managed to break the mould thanks to a very gifted senior coach and a playing group that ‘bought in’ and played some breathtaking footy at the most important time of the year. We broke the freaking system guys and we should always keep that in perspective.

In Round 1 our boys had played a collective 1510 games. With 500 less than what GWS had on the park is it any wonder we got belted? Same with yesterday, The Eagles had 12 guys with over 120 games played, we had 5 (One of which was in his 2nd game with us). It’s not a level playing field at the moment and the scoreboard is reflecting it.

The Contested Ball:

This is obviously the area where we have seen the biggest drop off but again, when looked at with a bit of perspective it’s easy to see why. Yesterday there were 11 players who had 3 CP’s or less…9 of them had a red, white and blue jumper on. Compare this with the finals series from 2016;

Vs WCE – 10 players under 4 CP’s – 4 Dogs (including injured Jong) and 6 Eagles

Vs Hawks – 8 players under 4 CP’s – 2 Dogs and 6 Hawks

Vs GWS – 6 players under 4 CP’s – 1 Dog and 5 Giants

Vs Swans – 7 players under 4 CP’s – 3 Dogs and 4 Swans

Our bottom end clearly isn’t holding as well due to a mix of inexperience or playing blokes to cover injuries who are just not up to it.

We are really missing some competitive beasts at the moment, if we look at the top end of the CP scale during that September run it becomes clear what we are missing;

Liber – 12, 12, 9, 15

Clay – 12, 9, 10, 8

Moyd – 9, 4, 5, 11

Picken – 9, 13, 11, 10

Toyd – 8, 9, 9, 9

These guys are proving not that easy to replace and nor should they, they are all gun footballers. I have confidence that Wallis can come in and fill a void but until Liam, Clay, Tom, Marcus and Dale get back to full health we will be up against it for a while.

Lots of people like to compare us to the Hawks of 2008 but I see us more like the Hawks of 2017. They lost some top end experience (Lewis/Mitchell, Murphy/Boyd), had some bad runs with injury and lost 3 of their first 6 games by over 75 points to sit 17th on the ladder with a % of 65. By the end of the year they sat a game and a half out of the finals and hit this season full of promise. We saw at the end of 2014 how quickly fortunes can change…it will change again. Bevo is a very smart man, he is sorting the wheat from the chaff at the moment to see who is up to it and who is not. I’d suggest that guys like Webb, Dale and Williams who have been on the fringe for a while, along with players such as Daniel, Biggs, Wallis, Red, Boyd and Dahl who should be on top of their games by now would want to lift and lift big time...Enjoy the ride fellas!

I agree with all of this.

Somewhere along the way we’ve taken for granted that our team broke the mould by winning the flag despite its age demographic and started “expecting” all of our young players to be able to carry the team.

I don’t think we’re a great team but we’re also not a bad team once we get our best team on the park.
 

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I am under no illusions that we find ourselves in a predicament at the moment but things can and will turn around very quickly.

Consider the following when judging this team;

We won a Premiership with a team with a total games experience of 1807. The last team to make a Grand Final with that much inexperience was the Dees in 2000 and they got beaten by 10 goals. Our boys took on a finals hardened team with 2500 games worth of experience, multiple Premiership players and outworked them on the biggest stage of all.

Look at the teams that were around us on the Ladder in 2013/2014;

Melbourne – Round 1, 2018 – 1851 Games experience

St.Kilda – Round 1, 2018 – 1801 Games experience

Carlton – Round 1, 2018 – 1832 Games experience

Gold Coast – Round 1, 2018 – 1762 Games experience

None of these teams have even played a final yet, let alone won the whole bloody thing! Why? Because history shows us that lists with that much experience sit around the mid to lower rungs of the ladder and are pushing to make the finals. We realistically should be lumped in with these teams but we managed to break the mould thanks to a very gifted senior coach and a playing group that ‘bought in’ and played some breathtaking footy at the most important time of the year. We broke the freaking system guys and we should always keep that in perspective.

In Round 1 our boys had played a collective 1510 games. With 500 less than what GWS had on the park is it any wonder we got belted? Same with yesterday, The Eagles had 12 guys with over 120 games played, we had 5 (One of which was in his 2nd game with us). It’s not a level playing field at the moment and the scoreboard is reflecting it.

The Contested Ball:

This is obviously the area where we have seen the biggest drop off but again, when looked at with a bit of perspective it’s easy to see why. Yesterday there were 11 players who had 3 CP’s or less…9 of them had a red, white and blue jumper on. Compare this with the finals series from 2016;

Vs WCE – 10 players under 4 CP’s – 4 Dogs (including injured Jong) and 6 Eagles

Vs Hawks – 8 players under 4 CP’s – 2 Dogs and 6 Hawks

Vs GWS – 6 players under 4 CP’s – 1 Dog and 5 Giants

Vs Swans – 7 players under 4 CP’s – 3 Dogs and 4 Swans

Our bottom end clearly isn’t holding as well due to a mix of inexperience or playing blokes to cover injuries who are just not up to it.

We are really missing some competitive beasts at the moment, if we look at the top end of the CP scale during that September run it becomes clear what we are missing;

Liber – 12, 12, 9, 15

Clay – 12, 9, 10, 8

Moyd – 9, 4, 5, 11

Picken – 9, 13, 11, 10

Toyd – 8, 9, 9, 9

These guys are proving not that easy to replace and nor should they, they are all gun footballers. I have confidence that Wallis can come in and fill a void but until Liam, Clay, Tom, Marcus and Dale get back to full health we will be up against it for a while.

Lots of people like to compare us to the Hawks of 2008 but I see us more like the Hawks of 2017. They lost some top end experience (Lewis/Mitchell, Murphy/Boyd), had some bad runs with injury and lost 3 of their first 6 games by over 75 points to sit 17th on the ladder with a % of 65. By the end of the year they sat a game and a half out of the finals and hit this season full of promise. We saw at the end of 2014 how quickly fortunes can change…it will change again. Bevo is a very smart man, he is sorting the wheat from the chaff at the moment to see who is up to it and who is not. I’d suggest that guys like Webb, Dale and Williams who have been on the fringe for a while, along with players such as Daniel, Biggs, Wallis, Red, Boyd and Dahl who should be on top of their games by now would want to lift and lift big time...Enjoy the ride fellas!

Post of the year. So good to see someone making sense on this board for once.
 
Well done Wally . I just cannot understand why Wallis and Dickson did not play against WC. Clearly by judging there performances last game they were ready and we were taking such a young side to face the experience of WC . This aside I am right with you as others are .
 
I think the problem is lack of communication.
It's natural for a flag winning team to try and keep winning the flag.
The fact that we haven't and we've rebuilt, is unusual, but it's made worse because we're confused and we understand how it's unusual, so we haven't been communicated why an unusual decision was made.
It's poor PR for the club. We're gullible fans, we can buy into the rebuilding, development, hope angle - god forbid teams like Carlton and Richmond have in recent years. Suddenly our mindset isn't that of being disappointed at margins but a mindset of looking at potential, the mechanisms in which another flag will be won being shown in glimpses today.
That message hasn't been communicated to the fans by the club and it's simply left us confused and sad.
 
We need to chill out. Look at hawthorn today and look at them this time last year. We have a young team that needs to grow again.
i was at the game today. great contest. i really wanted it to be a draw, so i could sing the bulldogs song after the siren. would have looked like an idiot, but then who gives a toss!
 
I am under no illusions that we find ourselves in a predicament at the moment but things can and will turn around very quickly.

Consider the following when judging this team;

We won a Premiership with a team with a total games experience of 1807. The last team to make a Grand Final with that much inexperience was the Dees in 2000 and they got beaten by 10 goals. Our boys took on a finals hardened team with 2500 games worth of experience, multiple Premiership players and outworked them on the biggest stage of all.

Look at the teams that were around us on the Ladder in 2013/2014;

Melbourne – Round 1, 2018 – 1851 Games experience

St.Kilda – Round 1, 2018 – 1801 Games experience

Carlton – Round 1, 2018 – 1832 Games experience

Gold Coast – Round 1, 2018 – 1762 Games experience

None of these teams have even played a final yet, let alone won the whole bloody thing! Why? Because history shows us that lists with that much experience sit around the mid to lower rungs of the ladder and are pushing to make the finals. We realistically should be lumped in with these teams but we managed to break the mould thanks to a very gifted senior coach and a playing group that ‘bought in’ and played some breathtaking footy at the most important time of the year. We broke the freaking system guys and we should always keep that in perspective.

In Round 1 our boys had played a collective 1510 games. With 500 less than what GWS had on the park is it any wonder we got belted? Same with yesterday, The Eagles had 12 guys with over 120 games played, we had 5 (One of which was in his 2nd game with us). It’s not a level playing field at the moment and the scoreboard is reflecting it.

The Contested Ball:

This is obviously the area where we have seen the biggest drop off but again, when looked at with a bit of perspective it’s easy to see why. Yesterday there were 11 players who had 3 CP’s or less…9 of them had a red, white and blue jumper on. Compare this with the finals series from 2016;

Vs WCE – 10 players under 4 CP’s – 4 Dogs (including injured Jong) and 6 Eagles

Vs Hawks – 8 players under 4 CP’s – 2 Dogs and 6 Hawks

Vs GWS – 6 players under 4 CP’s – 1 Dog and 5 Giants

Vs Swans – 7 players under 4 CP’s – 3 Dogs and 4 Swans

Our bottom end clearly isn’t holding as well due to a mix of inexperience or playing blokes to cover injuries who are just not up to it.

We are really missing some competitive beasts at the moment, if we look at the top end of the CP scale during that September run it becomes clear what we are missing;

Liber – 12, 12, 9, 15

Clay – 12, 9, 10, 8

Moyd – 9, 4, 5, 11

Picken – 9, 13, 11, 10

Toyd – 8, 9, 9, 9

These guys are proving not that easy to replace and nor should they, they are all gun footballers. I have confidence that Wallis can come in and fill a void but until Liam, Clay, Tom, Marcus and Dale get back to full health we will be up against it for a while.

Lots of people like to compare us to the Hawks of 2008 but I see us more like the Hawks of 2017. They lost some top end experience (Lewis/Mitchell, Murphy/Boyd), had some bad runs with injury and lost 3 of their first 6 games by over 75 points to sit 17th on the ladder with a % of 65. By the end of the year they sat a game and a half out of the finals and hit this season full of promise. We saw at the end of 2014 how quickly fortunes can change…it will change again. Bevo is a very smart man, he is sorting the wheat from the chaff at the moment to see who is up to it and who is not. I’d suggest that guys like Webb, Dale and Williams who have been on the fringe for a while, along with players such as Daniel, Biggs, Wallis, Red, Boyd and Dahl who should be on top of their games by now would want to lift and lift big time...Enjoy the ride fellas!
Excellent post as usual, Wal.

On Sunday we had a staggeringly low 1340 games experience going into the game.
Over a quarter of the side had played fewer than 20 games.
Over half the side had played fewer than 40. The median was 45.

upload_2018-4-3_9-52-33.png

We are seriously missing the composure and smarts of the more senior players left on the list - Morris (241), Picken (198) and Libba (117). The few 100+ gamers we had in the side are mostly out of form - Trengove (154), Dahlhaus (138), Roughead (127), Wood (126) - so it makes it hard for them to support others when they are struggling with their own game. Suckling (142) and Macrae (100) are the only exceptions.

The level of experience will probably improve a bit if Wallis (105 games) and Dickson (88) are to return. It depends who they replace of course.

Redpath has only played 34 games so he might bring some maturity and physical presence, but not a whole lot of senior experience.

This is the profile of a side in full rebuild.
 

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The team last year was more experienced than the premiership team yet didn’t perform anywhere near as well. The issue now more than anything is the established and experienced players not performing anywhere near to the standard they’re capable of. Being really young isn’t a positive thing as these teams rarely amount to anything. I’m not sure why so many people want to embrace tanking this season, how’s that worked out for other teams?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
All well and good using inexperience as a reason for the heavy losses but two of West Coast's better players and multiple goalkickers were Ryan and Venables.
That's true of nearly every side at this stage of the year though. The best of the new players get a run. All teams can carry a couple of novices if they have a good balance of experience and maturity across the side. And if you kick 15 of your goals from turnovers (ie when the defence is caught off guard and out of position) then kicking multiples in a winning side is not unusual. Tutt and Clay kicked 3 or 4 goals each on debut IIRC.

What's different is the critical mass of experience if I can call it that. I think it was posted before the game that our average experience was 60.9 games while WCE was around 100. That's massive.

BTW, I'm not saying our lack of experience was the only reason for the spankings we've had. It's just offered in the context of the OP.
 
That's true of nearly every side at this stage of the year though. The best of the new players get a run. All teams can carry a couple of novices if they have a good balance of experience and maturity across the side. And if you kick 15 of your goals from turnovers (ie when the defence is caught off guard and out of position) then kicking multiples in a winning side is not unusual. Tutt and Clay kicked 3 or 4 goals each on debut IIRC.

What's different is the critical mass of experience if I can call it that. I think it was posted before the game that our average experience was 60.9 games while WCE was around 100. That's massive.

BTW, I'm not saying our lack of experience was the only reason for the spankings we've had. It's just offered in the context of the OP.

i totally agree with that yes, inexperience in key positions is concerning, and we have too many young players all playing together. we lack cohesion and its that's understandable

however once the experienced players return, what if we still are bad? whats the excuses then?

last season round 4&5 with a near full strength team we struggled to beat Brisbane and norf, later in the year we struggled again to beat them. i dont know about you, but i haven't got much confidence in this team atm.
 
i totally agree with that yes, inexperience in key positions is concerning, and we have too many young players all playing together. we lack cohesion and its that's understandable

however once the experienced players return, what if we still are bad? whats the excuses then?

last season round 4&5 with a near full strength team we struggled to beat Brisbane and norf, later in the year we struggled again to beat them. i dont know about you, but i haven't got much confidence in this team atm.
The way we've been playing that's quite possible. Let's wait and see.

The only experience we are likely to get back in the short term is Wallis (105) and Dickson (88). I think we'll be waiting a good deal longer before we see Picken and Morris. And after that ... well, we have no other experienced players to bring back. The cupboard's bare.

As the OP said, it's about trying to find some perspective. Not so much excuses.
 
Again we were by far the youngest and least experienced side in round 2. Average of 61 games experience with 11 players under 50 games played and an average age of 23.

No this is no excuse for our performances. The effort has been woeful. But it is food for thought as we all naturally think we should be on the improve after winning a flag so young in 2016. But we’ve actually lost a lot of experience and can’t discount the onfield leadership we sorely miss in losing Boyd, Murph and Morris. A lot of the newbies are also going to be a bit lost out there as they find their feet and having even one player out of sync can cause huge problems. So we are essentially in the midst of a mini rebuild. I think a year of pain is in order before another assault at it from 2019 onwards. Hopefully we can snag the no 1 pick out of this years low
 
What Hawthorn have done so well that we have not is lure class players from other clubs. I think this is a major factor in our decline.

Lake, Burgoyne, Gunston, Gibson, McEvoy, Frawley, Mitchell, O'Meara, Impey

Toyd, Crameri, Suckling, Biggs, Schache, Trengove, Crozier
 

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