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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Final Siren said:
Round 3, 2017

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Animated!

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So... Hawthorn. This isn't an easy conversation. You've been there for me since I started posting squiggle stuff on BigFooty. You camped out among the premiership cups for months on end. You were a pleasure to watch and easy to predict.

It's even easy to identify the moment it all went wrong for Hawthorn: Round 6, April 30, 2016, 4:35pm. That was when the Hawks, travelling at 4 wins and 1 loss after a series of narrow escapes, ran into GWS and started watching footballs flying over their heads. They lost by 75 points. It was the beginning of the end because if there was one thing the Hawks made clear during their period of dominance, it was that good teams don't get thrashed.

Thrashings are very indicative. Squiggle pays a lot of attention to them, even more than wins. Very good teams don't receive them, under any circumstances, not even when nothing's going right. They cough up close losses but not thrashings. And they belt bad teams.

So after copping an 86-point belting from the Suns, the Hawks take the big plunge on the squiggle, while Gold Coast leap toward the middle of the pack:

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Adelaide and GWS did what was expected, while Sydney had another bad week -- again, not because their performance was so terrible, but because when you can only afford to lose 5 or 6 games for the year to make the top 4, it's not great to accumulate three of them before your first win. They're still rated the third-best team, but they probably need to go at least 16-3 from here, and that's a huge ask.

A good week for the Cats, mainly because Sydney and the Bulldogs' troubles freed up some breathing space in the top 4. Also good for Collingwood, who banked a win that few would have counted on, and stole ground from top-8 competitors in Hawthorn, Melbourne, and North.

Carlton and Essendon take a step to the right, mainly because of a heavily rain-affected game. But Fremantle overtake both after beating the Bulldogs.

The Tigers are now 3-0, but squiggle isn't too excited yet. They're a genuine finals chance, currently predicted to miss out on percentage only, but their results have been only mildly better than expectation. To really move, they need to belt Brisbane next week.

Flagpole! Pretty much business as usual here:

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Live squiggle!

Squiggle dials!
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"it was that good teams don't get thrashed."

Do you not consider GWS getting pumped by Adelaide by 56 a 'thrashing'? Not trying to be smart just trying to understand what constitutes? Or would the fact it being round 1 effect squiggle differently?
 
VictorianCrow85 said:
"it was that good teams don't get thrashed."

Do you not consider GWS getting pumped by Adelaide by 56 a 'thrashing'? Not trying to be smart just trying to understand what constitutes? Or would the fact it being round 1 effect squiggle differently?
Click to expand...

Looking at the biggest loss for an eventual premier in a season a 56 point loss to GWS would have been unprecedented if the Bulldogs hadn’t gotten up last year, however it is far less uncommon for the runner up to have been pumped in a match perhaps not boding well for GWS.

2016- Bulldogs 57 point loss to Geelong rnd 13 vs Sydney 42 point loss to GWS rnd 12

2015- Hawthorn 32 point loss to West Coast QF vs West Coast 57 Point loss to Adelaide rnd 21

2014- Hawthorn 20 point loss to North Melbourne rnd 16 vs Sydney 63 point loss to Hawthorn GF

2013- Hawthorn 41 point loss to Richmond rnd 19 vs Fremantle 71 point loss to St Kilda rnd 23

2012- Sydney 34 point loss to Geelong rnd 23 vs Hawthorn 62 point loss to Richmond rnd 9

2011- Geelong 13 point loss to Sydney rnd 23 vs Collingwood 96 Point loss to Geelong rnd 24

2010- Collingwood 36 point loss to Geelong rnd 9 vs St Kilda 61 point loss to Carlton rnd 7

2009- Geelong 43 point loss to Brisbane rnd 15 vs St Kilda 12 point loss to Geelong GF

2008- Hawthorn 32 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 10 vs Geelong 86 point loss to Collingwood rnd 9

2007- Geelong 20 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 1 vs Port Adelaide 119 point loss to Geelong GF



So, in 8 of the last 10 Grand Final match ups the team with the smallest loss of the year has won the Grand Final.

I guess if you lose by 10 goals or more pack it on your done seems to be the mark.
 
VictorianCrow85 said:
"it was that good teams don't get thrashed."

Do you not consider GWS getting pumped by Adelaide by 56 a 'thrashing'? Not trying to be smart just trying to understand what constitutes? Or would the fact it being round 1 effect squiggle differently?
Click to expand...
Post above covers it very well, but yes, GWS going on to win the flag after losing a match by 56 points would be unusual. Especially if they come up against a team in the GF that hasn't been thrashed.

You have to be careful about putting too much stock in a single game, but for the Hawks it looks a lot like emphatic confirmation of a trend.
 

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Final Siren said:
Post above covers it very well, but yes, GWS going on to win the flag after losing a match by 56 points would be unusual. Especially if they come up against a team in the GF that hasn't been thrashed.

You have to be careful about putting too much stock in a single game, but for the Hawks it looks a lot like emphatic confirmation of a trend.
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not to mention it was 'the worst team in the AFL' doing the smacking. but they sure didnt look it yesterday.
 
Oh and here's what the TOWER OF POWER looks like! I haven't done this for a while.

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This is made by running 10,000 season simulations and counting how many times each team winds up where.

At this stage, there's still lots of uncertainty, so teams are mostly long slashes, capable of finishing in many different positions. As the weeks go by, they tend to flatten out.

Adelaide are already settled in the top 4, though, the squiggle reckons, and Brisbane are very likely for the spoon.
 
catstorm said:
I guess if you lose by 10 goals or more pack it on your done seems to be the mark.
Click to expand...

Port lost by 92 in '04. also lost another 3-4 games that year by 6 goals plus.
Won everything close though.
 
Final Siren said:
Oh and here's what the TOWER OF POWER looks like! I haven't done this for a while.

VrK0v68.jpg

This is made by running 10,000 season simulations and counting how many times each team winds up where.

At this stage, there's still lots of uncertainty, so teams are mostly long slashes, capable of finishing in many different positions. As the weeks go by, they tend to flatten out.

Adelaide are already settled in the top 4, though, the squiggle reckons, and Brisbane are very likely for the spoon.
Click to expand...
Have you got it twisting the opposite way from last year?
 
Final Siren said:
The Arc has just started testing this: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/04/07/fantasy-points-what-are-they-good-for/

He's getting pretty good early results: 70% tipping based on fantasy points alone. That's very promising, I reckon.

The problem, as usual, is that the AFL & Champion Data have most of the useful stats locked up tight, so no-one else can analyze them. This drives the amateur stats guys crazy, because they could do amazing things if the data were available. But it's not.

So if you want to build a player-based model, it has to rely only on the crudest metrics, like disposals.


Thanks! I don't want to brag but I just got an email from an actual AFL club saying they're enjoying the squiggle. So that's pretty cool. I mean, wtf an actual AFL club is doing on BigFooty, I don't know. But still. Awesome.
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It was Adelaide wasn't it ;)
 
catstorm said:
Looking at the biggest loss for an eventual premier in a season a 56 point loss to GWS would have been unprecedented if the Bulldogs hadn’t gotten up last year, however it is far less uncommon for the runner up to have been pumped in a match perhaps not boding well for GWS.

2016- Bulldogs 57 point loss to Geelong rnd 13 vs Sydney 42 point loss to GWS rnd 12

2015- Hawthorn 32 point loss to West Coast QF vs West Coast 57 Point loss to Adelaide rnd 21

2014- Hawthorn 20 point loss to North Melbourne rnd 16 vs Sydney 63 point loss to Hawthorn GF

2013- Hawthorn 41 point loss to Richmond rnd 19 vs Fremantle 71 point loss to St Kilda rnd 23

2012- Sydney 34 point loss to Geelong rnd 23 vs Hawthorn 62 point loss to Richmond rnd 9

2011- Geelong 13 point loss to Sydney rnd 23 vs Collingwood 96 Point loss to Geelong rnd 24

2010- Collingwood 36 point loss to Geelong rnd 9 vs St Kilda 61 point loss to Carlton rnd 7

2009- Geelong 43 point loss to Brisbane rnd 15 vs St Kilda 12 point loss to Geelong GF

2008- Hawthorn 32 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 10 vs Geelong 86 point loss to Collingwood rnd 9

2007- Geelong 20 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 1 vs Port Adelaide 119 point loss to Geelong GF



So, in 8 of the last 10 Grand Final match ups the team with the smallest loss of the year has won the Grand Final.

I guess if you lose by 10 goals or more pack it on your done seems to be the mark.
Click to expand...
Final Siren said:
Post above covers it very well, but yes, GWS going on to win the flag after losing a match by 56 points would be unusual. Especially if they come up against a team in the GF that hasn't been thrashed.

You have to be careful about putting too much stock in a single game, but for the Hawks it looks a lot like emphatic confirmation of a trend.
Click to expand...


Thanks for the great responses. Will be watching with interest how squiggle and the rest of the season shapes up.
 
catstorm said:
Looking at the biggest loss for an eventual premier in a season a 56 point loss to GWS would have been unprecedented if the Bulldogs hadn’t gotten up last year, however it is far less uncommon for the runner up to have been pumped in a match perhaps not boding well for GWS.

2016- Bulldogs 57 point loss to Geelong rnd 13 vs Sydney 42 point loss to GWS rnd 12

2015- Hawthorn 32 point loss to West Coast QF vs West Coast 57 Point loss to Adelaide rnd 21

2014- Hawthorn 20 point loss to North Melbourne rnd 16 vs Sydney 63 point loss to Hawthorn GF

2013- Hawthorn 41 point loss to Richmond rnd 19 vs Fremantle 71 point loss to St Kilda rnd 23

2012- Sydney 34 point loss to Geelong rnd 23 vs Hawthorn 62 point loss to Richmond rnd 9

2011- Geelong 13 point loss to Sydney rnd 23 vs Collingwood 96 Point loss to Geelong rnd 24

2010- Collingwood 36 point loss to Geelong rnd 9 vs St Kilda 61 point loss to Carlton rnd 7

2009- Geelong 43 point loss to Brisbane rnd 15 vs St Kilda 12 point loss to Geelong GF

2008- Hawthorn 32 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 10 vs Geelong 86 point loss to Collingwood rnd 9

2007- Geelong 20 point loss to Western Bulldogs rnd 1 vs Port Adelaide 119 point loss to Geelong GF



So, in 8 of the last 10 Grand Final match ups the team with the smallest loss of the year has won the Grand Final.

I guess if you lose by 10 goals or more pack it on your done seems to be the mark.
Click to expand...

2009 was pretty harsh for St Kilda. They lost only 3 games for the year by a grand total of 19 points. It just happened that 1 of those losses was the GF.
 
Final Siren said:
Oh and here's what the TOWER OF POWER looks like! I haven't done this for a while.

VrK0v68.jpg

This is made by running 10,000 season simulations and counting how many times each team winds up where.

At this stage, there's still lots of uncertainty, so teams are mostly long slashes, capable of finishing in many different positions. As the weeks go by, they tend to flatten out.

Adelaide are already settled in the top 4, though, the squiggle reckons, and Brisbane are very likely for the spoon.
Click to expand...

Love the cat/dog logo created by Geelong and the Bulldogs!

I'm surprised at the really high likelihood of Brisbane getting the spoon after only 3 rounds. Then again, they only just beat GC and lost to Essendon and St Kilda, none of which are highly rated by the Squiggle, so the Squiggle doesn't give them much hope of beating better rated teams.
 
Yeah, even though Brisbane have made a reasonable start to the year, teams around them have shown more, with Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Richmond all moving positively.

It would take a sharp drop for a next-tier team like North, St Kilda, Melbourne, or (gulp) Hawthorn to fall all the way to the bottom, so there isn't a whole lot of competition for the spoon at the moment.
 

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Final Siren said:
Yeah, even though Brisbane have made a reasonable start to the year, teams around them have shown more, with Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Richmond all moving positively.

It would take a sharp drop for a next-tier team like North, St Kilda, Melbourne, or (gulp) Hawthorn to fall all the way to the bottom, so there isn't a whole lot of competition for the spoon at the moment.
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Hey, I know you've made it before but the other thread is so big over so long I can't find it.

Just wondering whether you could repost the career squiggle of Alastair Clarkson. Would be intrigued whether hawthorn can make a beeline for his low point this season
 
Final Siren said:
The Arc has just started testing this: https://thearcfooty.com/2017/04/07/fantasy-points-what-are-they-good-for/

He's getting pretty good early results: 70% tipping based on fantasy points alone. That's very promising, I reckon.

The problem, as usual, is that the AFL & Champion Data have most of the useful stats locked up tight, so no-one else can analyze them. This drives the amateur stats guys crazy, because they could do amazing things if the data were available. But it's not.

So if you want to build a player-based model, it has to rely only on the crudest metrics, like disposals.


Thanks! I don't want to brag but I just got an email from an actual AFL club saying they're enjoying the squiggle. So that's pretty cool. I mean, wtf an actual AFL club is doing on BigFooty, I don't know. But still. Awesome.
Click to expand...

Congratulations! They are professional organisations so they would be silly to not look for some information on this thread. I wonder if their HR looks in the trading threads for potential junior watchers.

What if you worked for Champion Data? When I was doing my post-graduate studies I went to a meeting for Victorian Youth Statisticians (can't recall the exact name). The guy who was president that year was doing a PhD at Champion data. It was on spatial statistics, specifically heat maps.

It is a shame that they lock up the data like that. The AFL are stupid for doing that. The fact is the more open the data the more people, like your good self, will play with it. Once more and more of it is public then it will filter through the whole community. It will help local people develop juniors better and it will naturally even out the comp. Having said that, we are measuring humans and they are influenced by the data and analysis in a way an animal or natural system isn't.

Similarly, I have some skin the PED game as an Essendon supporter. I wish there wasn't a banned list, but an approved list. Whatever a player wanted to take they had to apply to a league sanctioned health board that would analyse the request by club/player. The reasons for it and any data gathered in the process has to be open to the whole league. That way there is no advantage on opponents and if there is a clear adverse health effect then it won't get approved. In this way footballers can contribute to society by helping with the building the medical body of knowledge. (apologies for the ADHD segway).
 

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Final Siren said:
Gold Coast and Freo evacuating those bottom rungs really opened up a lot of space for other teams to fall into! That chute opening for Hawthorn all the way down to 17th is kind of terrifying.
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That last squeeze destroying their top 4 chances is a sight to behold.
 

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