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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Final Siren - what's your season tips going compared to other big places?

I just saw I'm barely pipping you (57 vs 55) and I'm intrigued how I'm going vs other mathematical algorithms
 
Port's defensive score is the highest on Squiggle at the moment, and the current predicted score by Hawthorn in this game is 63. If Hawthorn continue like they are now Port's defensive Squiggle would shoot off into the aether somewhere
 

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Rotayjay said:
This defensive effort is going to give Squiggle a big erection.
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I am misliking the Squiggle predictions - it seems to be lining up in the only possible way for Adelaide to miss the Grand Flnal - Port with an away final against GWS which they don't quite win, and then a prelim against the only team that could beat Adelaide but with no home advantage.
 
Dirty Bird said:
Final Siren - what's your season tips going compared to other big places?

I just saw I'm barely pipping you (57 vs 55) and I'm intrigued how I'm going vs other mathematical algorithms
Click to expand...
I used to wonder this, too, so I made a page for it! http://squiggle.com.au/leaderboard/

This automatically fetches tips from most of the better-known AFL models plus the bookies. Right now (after 1 game of R11) the models are 55-59 tips and the bookies are 57 tips. So the models are doing very well, and also the season has been very hard to tip, with rates of 62-65% well below average.

This is a hard round to tip, too, with 4/6 games being pretty close to line-ball, so things could be about to get even crazier.

So far this year my best algorithm this year has 61 tips, and a bunch of other venue-based algorithms are on 59, which suggests that venue has been a more important factor this year.
 
DragoonCody said:
Port's defensive score is the highest on Squiggle at the moment, and the current predicted score by Hawthorn in this game is 63. If Hawthorn continue like they are now Port's defensive Squiggle would shoot off into the aether somewhere
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What's interesting for me is that Port had the China game where they got a huge defensive move from keeping Gold Coast to just 38 points - which at the time seemed suspect, because although it was a Suns home game, it wasn't the normal kind of home state advantage.

Yet since then, Port have totally backed it up, beating even their new defensive rating, by keeping the Cats to 81 and then the Hawks to 47.

There are always reasons to think "this time is different," but a lot of the time it's not.
 
Final Siren said:
I used to wonder this, too, so I made a page for it! http://squiggle.com.au/leaderboard/

This automatically fetches tips from most of the better-known AFL models plus the bookies. Right now (after 1 game of R11) the models are 55-59 tips and the bookies are 57 tips. So the models are doing very well, and also the season has been very hard to tip, with rates of 62-65% well below average.

This is a hard round to tip, too, with 4/6 games being pretty close to line-ball, so things could be about to get even crazier.

So far this year my best algorithm this year has 61 tips, and a bunch of other venue-based algorithms are on 59, which suggests that venue has been a more important factor this year.
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Swansfan51 has 70

Again he is killing it
 
Final Siren said:
Have you changed the model from last year? I have the 2016 Hobbes algorithm doing better than that, with 1-pass Hobbes on 57 tips (incl. last night) and 2+-pass versions all on 56.
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Very few changes.

(1) I'm inserting a null round for rounds which aren't played (byes or breaks in the finals). This had a big effect on initial ratings - a big positive skew - since lots of below average teams had 0-rated rounds when, on form, might have done worse if they had played.

This replaced the medium negative skew from last year's model, since so many teams had a loss from their last match.

This does make the accounting easier, since one round=1 column in my spreadsheet.

(2) I didn't apply home ground advantage for the match in China.

Still, I might recheck my standings when I find time.
 
Both the SA teams are in weird situations. Adelaide have an attack that's streets ahead and a defence that's mediocre. Adelaide have also suffered two large upset defeats. Port's defence is well placed and they have dished out lots of thumpings, however they have lost against top-8 sides (and so we start calling them flat-track bullies).
 

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Final Siren said:
I'm becoming a squiggle doubter. When is it going to rate us ffs? Just doesn't get us. #flagfever
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Maybe squiggle's a closet Tiger and is keeping a lid on it so we can fly under the radar of squiggle enthusiasts :eek:
 
Richo83 said:
So Richmond have a rubbish forwardline. They also have the second most marks inside 50 in the league, which makes you wonder, what exactly are the forwards doing?
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This is somewhat optimistic. After the mid season break, if you guys improve efficiency, you could find yourself in the top 4 towards the end of the year.
 
chickentendies said:
Big factor for Richmond is they're defending extremely well. I reckon they'll go deep into December. Can't wait for Port to play them.
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You wouldn't want to cross our path come December. That's usually when we're training the house down.
 

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