Strength of Schedule

[AndyD]

Looking at the SoS for all teams shows some interesting things.

After Round 8 Melbourne has faced the hardest teams with their combined opponents having won 31 games. Geelong have so far faced the weakest with their opponents having won only 17 1/2 games.

From hardest to weakest

Melbourne 31 wins
Essendon 30 wins
Sydney 28 wins
Richmond 28 wins
St. Kilda 27 1/2 wins
Fremantle 26 wins
Brisbane 25 1/2 wins
Port 25 1/2 wins
----------------------
Adelaide 25 wins
West Coast 25 wins
North Melbourne 24 wins
Collingwood 22 wins
Hawthorn 19 wins
Western Bulldogs 19 wins
Carlton 18 1/2 wins
Geelong 17 1/2 wins

The SoS at the time the game is played evens things out. This is the amount of wins a team has when your team comes up against them. For example none of Hawthorns wins count against Melbourne's tally as they had not won a game when they played in round one.

Again from hardest to weakest.

Sydney 14 1/2 wins
Richmond 14 wins
Brisbane 12 wins
North Melbourne 12 wins
Hawthorn 11 1/2 wins
Collingwood 11 wins
St. Kilda 10 1/2 wins
Western Bulldogs 10 1/2 wins
---------------------
Essendon 10 wins
Fremantle 10 wins
Geelong 10 wins
Adelaide 9 1/2 wins
West Coast 8 1/2 wins
Melbourne 8 wins
Port 8 wins
Carlton 7 wins

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Maybe Geelong aren't as good as we think, can see them doing a St Kilda 2004.

 

[kriso182]

Yeah we are in trouble. We have only won 26 of our past 27 games.

 

[AndyD]

This thing with the Top 3 teams is that as they haven't played each other their numbers seem down as every team bar Carlton has played at least one of them. Add at least 6 1/2 wins to the Cats, Hawks and Dogs and they seem to be around the average.

 

[camsmith]

Can you do it as of next round.. since Richmond have Geelong.

Interesting though.

 

[AndyD]

Can you do it as of next round.. since Richmond have Geelong.

Interesting though.

I'll update it through the season.

 

[LIONS then DAYLIGHT]

Yeah we are in trouble. We have only won 26 of our past 27 games.

Actually i was basing my predicition on the fact that you were lucky to beat Fremantle, a team that has just been beaten by Melbourne, and the fact that Sydney and Brisbane all but beat Geelong, not on a season from 2007.

 

[red+black]

Melbourne has faced the hardest teams

Melbourne has had a tough draw, having only played teams above them on the ladder.

Maybe Geelong aren't as good as we think

Geelong has had an easy draw, having only played teams below them on the ladder.

 

[PUSSIES_07_FLAG]

Pretty stupid concept because Geelong is not going to magically start losing to the likes of Richmond,Carlton etc.

Either are Hawthorn or the Bulldogs.

Geelong, Hawks, Bulldogs have won 7,7,6, and of course they CANT PLAY THEMSELVES! thus they are going to be ranked lower.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

You need to add in the teams own wins as well to get accurate figures. Otherwise you simply penalise the better teams.

For example (using your first, too hard to do the second retrospectively)

Melbourne 32 wins (+1)
Hawthorn 26 wins (+7)
Western Bulldogs 25 wins (+6)
Geelong 24 1/2 wins (+7)

Melbourne may indeed be on top still (or bottom depending on which way you look at it), but you'll find the results much closer, and more reflective of the actual draw itself.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

I was just thinking the Cats have had an easy start to the season. But looking at their draw, it does get a bit tougher in the next few months.

 

[Hawkers Hero]

Also shouldn't a strength of schedule take into account travel and shorter breaks?

As an example, using your system, Geelong playing and beating Sydney at Skilled was the same as the Bulldogs playing and beating them in Sydney when playing the Swans away is clearly the tougher task.

Can say the same with Hawthorn and Geelong playing Brisbane.

Not to pick on the Cats at all