Sydney List Analysis

[The Cotch]

Hey guys, you can put this in another thread if you like, but I took a look at the Swans list today on footytragic.com as we've been doing for every club. There is a table on the website showing the Swans list divided into different categories, but I'm struggling to put it on here. http://www.footytragic.com/blog/team-depth-charts/north-melbourne-list-analysis/http://www.footytragic.com/blog/team-depth-charts/sydney-swans-list-analysis/

Here it is.....


LIST COMPOSITION (league average in brackets):

Inside Mid: 9 (7.8)
Outside Mid: 6 (6.1)
Key Fwd: 3 (3.7)
Med Fwd: 3 (4.0)
Small Fwd: 3 (3.1)
Key Back: 4 (4.4)
Med Back: 4 (7.0)
Small Back: 2 (1.6)
Ruck: 3 (3.4)
Utility: 1 (1.1)
18-21: 8 (12.2)
22-25: 15 (16.9)
26-28: 8 (7.3)
29+: 7 (5.8)


Three teams to go in our list analysis series, which brings us up to mighty Sydney Swans.


In the pre-season I had tipped them to make the top four, and while they didn’t get there, they made a genuine threat to making the preliminary finals again. Their consistency amazes me, and every time they got knocked down, they come back up, ten fold. I really rate their list, and looking at it now, it’s arguably in better shape than when it was back in 2005 and 2006, from an age and balance perspective anyway.


The thing that is so admirable about the Swans is that they never bottom out. Their drafting and dare I say thanks partially to Phil Scully in recent years, has been top notch, and of course the recruiting of recycled players each and every year to fill list needs is beyond amazing. They did that again this trade period, needing outside midfielders and a key position forward, so they got Mitch Morton, Tony Armstrong and the best get out of them all in Tommy Walsh. They got all of those guys for basically nothing, somehow.


Sydney’s midfield would have to be the most under rated in the competition. You look at the seasoned veterans in isolation in Jarrad McVeigh, Jude Bolton, Ryan O’Keefe and Adam Goodes, Ben McGlynn and that is a damn good five to have. Then you take into account their young guns, which are all VERY good in Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Keiran Jack, Josh Kennedy, Gary Rohan, Lewis Jetta and Craig Bird and you have, seriously, one of the best midfields in the competition. There are not many that can stack up against that, and it’ll get better, even though Goodes, Bolton and O’Keefe are ageing, we haven’t even been close to seeing the best of the other guys, in particular Gary Rohan and Luke Parker.


Their rucks are fine, with all three very capable of holding down #1 spot. Mumford is the obvious star, but Pyke has shown outstanding improvement. Maybe they could make do with one development ruckman for the future, but it’s not really a priority considering those guys are still no where near retirement.


Their medium to small backs are also very good. Nick Smith is one of the best back pockets in the game right now, and his 2011 season went largely unnoticed. I love Nick Malceski, but he had a really down season. I have no doubt he’ll be back bigger and better than ever, as I think at his best, he’s definitely in the Swans best 22. Mattner is a great stopper and rebounder and Shaw had an outstanding season, which also went under the radar as well.


The Swans key backman, are again, underrated. Ted Richards has become a mighty fine player, Grundy is a very solid centre half back, and Alex Johnson in just his first season, cemented a spot in their line up. I’d draft another key back to be honest, just to be safe, but there are certainly no panic stations.


The medium to small forwards contain lots of talent as well. Mitch Morton is a good addition, and I suspect will play lots of games. Jed Lamb could honestly be anything, he was just about my favourite player in last year’s draft, and I really hope he gets a decent run at it in 2012 to show everyone what he’s capable of. Dennis-Lane seems to struggle when making the step-up to AFL, but he has time on his side and plenty of talent. You also have guys like McGlynn, Goodes, Rohan, Jetta, McVeigh and O’Keefe who are all more than capable forwards.


Finally, the Swans have landed themselves one of the best key forwards in the game in Sam Reid. He’ll be so hard to stop in a few years with those vice-like hands. He needs to work on his set shot kicking though. Tommy Walsh is a brilliant get, and he and Reid will prove to be an awesome duo.


SUMMARY:

I love the Swans list. They are incredibly under rated, and if you think they’ll slip out of the eight, well then think again. They’re not going anywhere, anytime soon. In the draft, I’d really just focus on getting development talls in, for example possibly one ruck, one key back and one key forward. Their midfield is not a priority at all.


FANTASY SPIN:


I really can’t see any ‘must-haves’ for the Swans next season as they’re such an even team. Keiran Jack could step up into the 100+ average category as well as Hannebery. Watch out for Lamb to get some games as well.

 

[bedford]

Very good and fair Cotch. My only critisism is overating Jetta.

 

[TRAWP]

Sensational write-up.

 

[baja]

yeah good read Cotch, although a little criticism about something, anything, wouldnt hurt us too much just make it constructive, just sayin...

 

[The Cotch]

Thanks for the feedback! I've honestly been pretty scathing of teams when doing these analysis's, but I really can't fault the Swans list right now, it balances up really nicely!

 

[baja]

Thanks for the feedback! I've honestly been pretty scathing of teams when doing these analysis's, but I really can't fault the Swans list right now, it balances up really nicely!

fair enuff mate, I havent read any others I was just giving feedback I thought they all might be similar, great stuff..

'Where can they improve' type sections are usually my favorite parts to read. Good work though....

 

[SM]

Well we actually have four key backs if you include LRT, and five if you count Spangher, but you may have counted him as a Key forward.

 

[MushroomRocket]

Was your analysis based on an aggregate of individual attributes (that were weighted) or was it more of a skewed bell curve for the league on a absolute scale?

Based on a attribute model it suggests that Sydney is around 5-8 in the competition. In bell curve terms its more like 11-7 on the ladder.

Your data analysis could also include a RSD for teams like melbourne that might whinge at you for rating them lowly , but your comments are top class

hope you keep improving your analysis method and post your evaluation just before the start of the season next year, GLHF

 

[awesummm]

Great work

 

[GoTheSwannies]

I really enjoyed the read, great review. I agree that it could have used a few areas for improvement.

Personally, I think there are a few question marks hanging over Sydney's 2012 campaign.

My first question is how much longer we have to rely on Goodes to provide a spark. Much like Roos' questions over Carlton, we really need to have others standing up and winning games off their own boot, and not the usual suspects ROK, Bolton, Kennedy, Mumford.

Secondly, Jude Bolton. I doubted him before, and vowed never to do so again. But the questions remain, he's one of our older guys, he missed a couple of games last year, but otherwise has been extremely durable. In his absense, we beat Gold Coast and lost to Freo. He's an extremely emportant player, and someone you can rely on to deliver in big games. I'd back him in to get another quality year out of him.

Josh Kennedy, well, not Kennedy per se, but the lack of support around him. At times he's been a bit of a one man show. I'm sure Bolton missing games through injury and coming back a little hampered has contributed, but Kennedy really needs some support in the middle. With Kieran Jack & Craig Bird remaining injury free, Bolton getting back to his best, and Parker getting more games, he'll have a few others in there getting their hands dirty, which should take some of the pressure off and allow Kennedy to take his game to another level.

Will Kieran Jack get back to his best, or was his form late in 2010 just a flash in the pan. I sure hope it's the former, cause he was a gun when he was on, and really provided us with a strong attacking presence. He's an a-grader in waiting.

Our forward line. We've added 2 new pieces to the arsenal. We saw what the inclusion of Spangher in 2011 did for our forward line. If we extend that reasoning to the inclusion of Walsh, we're in for a cracking 2012. Things dont always pan out the way you'd hope, but Walsh definitely looks like an exciting prospect, and the perfect compliment to Reid. The other addition is Morton, who I have pretty big question marks over. I found his responses in interviews to be a little to excuse-ridden, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I see a little lack of ownership/accountability for where he's at in his career. But the Swans coaching staff have backed him, and I'd be a fool not to respect their judgement. Lets hope he does see this as his last opportunity and puts in 110%.

Defensively, we've got quite a bit of depth, but Mattner & Shaw are getting on a bit. Both featured highly in our B&F, but I'm concerned particularly about Mattner, if he slows down just a fraction, he will be soundly beaten by quicker/more agile opponents. Will Johnson get the 2nd year blues. We should have enough depth to cover for 1 or 2 of the above having a significant dip in form.

There's a whole lot of positives though. And the negatives reallydon't look like significant deficiencies.

 

[AlibiMonday]

On the Fantasy Spin, I'd be amazed if Mitchell isn't the most popular fantasy player selected next year.

A very accurate write up Cotch. Well done.

 

[MF]

Great write up, and not because you blew smoke up our arses, but because you singled out players like Parker, Shaw and Richards who are often overlooked. You obviously know your stuff.

I think the one thing we need, that's worth mentioning is better disposal from the midfield.