Take Two - AFL's Fixture: a proposal

[GremioPower]

It is definitely not easy to fix the fixture. I have a failed suggestion already! (That's why this thread is "Take Two" ) But, please, let me try again, mixing these two ideas below.

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I) I just read on Adelaide Now, an article published earlier this year which says that AFL studies the possibility of adopting a league-split after a round robin. The text does not say, but such a model is used in the Scottish Premier League (soccer). Here is the link:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport...n/news-story/4b4e02737467ba93ced7e076942f6428

I'm not sure it would work for AFL, though. Australia is not Scotland, and AFL already has Finals; just to state two reasons.

II) I have found another idea at FootyMaths. Their proposal is better, with a balanced +5 based on past season. However, they consider adopting conferences, which I believe to be a no-starter. The concept can be found here:

http://footymaths.blogspot.com.br/p/we-have-posted-before-on-this-blog.html?m=1

Even disregarding the conferences, I imagine there is no interest around the league to get rid of the rivalries' extra games.

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In this new proposal of mine, the intention is merely to improve what AFL already does. Fixture would still be 17+5, like it is today. Like in FootyMaths, doubles would be based on past season's ladder, and mostly balanced between all teams. Like in the concept considered in AFL's HW, teams would be split in three tiers: Top, Middle, and Bottom. However, rivalries would be preserved. If this is how AFL already does, kudos to them!

Before getting into the details, if my proposal were applied for the 2018 fixture, the doubles would be these:

01.ADE - GEE (2), POR (5), ESS (7), HAW (12), FRE (14)
02.GEE - ADE (1), GWS (4), WC (8), STK (11), NOR (15)
03.RIC - POR (5), SYD (6), ESS (7), MEL (9), COL (13)
04.GWS - GEE (2), SYD (6), MEL (9), WES (10), CAR (16)
05.POR - ADE (1), RIC (3), WES (10), STK (11), GC (17)
06.SYD - RIC (3), GWS (4), WC (8), HAW (12), BRI (18)
07.ESS - ADE (1), RIC (3), WC (8), COL (13), CAR (16)
08.WC - GEE (2), SYD (6), ESS (7), FRE (14), BRI (18)
09.MEL - RIC (3), GWS (4), WES (10), NOR (15), GC (17)
10.WES - GWS (4), POR (5), MEL (9), NOR (15), CAR (16)
11.STK - GEE (2), POR (5), HAW (12), FRE (14), GC (17)
12.HAW - ADE (1), SYD (6), STK (11), COL (13), BRI (18)
13.COL - RIC (3), ESS (7), HAW (12), FRE (14), CAR (16)
14.FRE - ADE (1), WC (8), STK (11), COL (13), NOR (15)
15.NOR - GEE (2), MEL (9), WES (10), FRE (14), GC (17)
16.CAR - GWS (4), ESS (7), WES (10), COL (13), BRI (18)
17.GC - POR (5), MEL (9), STK (11), NOR (15), BRI (18)
18.BRI - SYD (6), WC (8), HAW (12), CAR (16), GC (17)

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This is how I got there. If I have missed a rivalry, please, correct me. The Rules to establish the doubles are the following:

I) Teams would play:
a) Top: 2 games vTop; 2, vMid; and 1, vBot.
b) Middle: 2, vTop; 1, vMid; and 2, vBot.
c) Bottom: 1, vTop; 2, vMid; and 2, vBot.

II) Rivalry games would have preference on establishing the opponent for the double.

III) Rivalries aside, games would be:
a) Top v Top - (1) AvB; CvE; DvF; (2) AvC; BvD; EvF.
b) Top v Middle - (1) AvA; BvB; CvC; DvD; EvE; FvF; (2) AvF; BvE; CvD; DvC; EvB; FvA.
c) Top v Bottom - AvA; BvB; CvC; DvD; EvE; FvF.
d) Middle v Middle - AvB; CvD; EvF.
e) Middle v Bottom - (1) AvA; BvB; CvC; DvD; EvE; FvF; (2) AvF; BvE; CvD; DvC; EvB; FvA.
f) Bottom v Bottom - (1) AvB; CvE; DvF; (2) AvC; BvD; EvF.

IV) Whenever there is a rivalry game, teams are reordered within their tiers, and the games are set respecting the ground for the rule above.

V) Triples are forbidden.

VI) Considering the 2017 Ladder, teams would be grouped in three tiers, according to their final positions:

TOP - MID - BOT
(A) ADE - (A) ESS - (A) COL
(B) GEE - (B) WC - (B) FRE
(C) RIC - (C) MEL - (C) NOR
(D) GWS - (D) WES - (D) CAR
(E) POR - (E) STK - (E) GC
(F) SYD - (F) HAW - (F) BRI

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Thus, one just needs to apply the rules to set the doubles for the 2018 season:

a) Top v Top
(1) GWS-SYD (rivalry); ADE-GEE; RIC-POR.
(2) ADE-POR (rivalry); GEE-GWS; RIC-SYD.

b) Top v Middle
(1) ADE-ESS; GEE-WC; RIC-MEL; GWS-WES; POR-STK; SYD-HAW
(2) RIC-ESS (rivalry); ADE-HAW; GEE-STK; GWS-MEL; POR-WES; SYD-WC.

c) Top v Bottom: RIC-COL (rivalry); ADE-FRE; GEE-NOR; GWS-CAR; POR-GC; SYD-BRI.

d) Middle v Middle: ESS-WC; MEL-WES; STK-HAW.

e) Middle v Bottom
(1) ESS-COL (rivalry); WC-FRE (rivalry); MEL-NOR; WES-CAR; STK-GC; HAW-BRI.
(2) ESS-CAR (rivalry); WC-BRI; MEL-GC; WES-NOR; STK-FRE; HAW-COL.

f) Bottom v Bottom
(1) COL-FRE; NOR-GC; CAR-BRI.
(2) GC-BRI (rivalry); COL-CAR (rivalry); FRE-NOR.

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P.S.: If Hawthorn-North Melbourne were considered a Tasmanian rivalry (as it should, i.m.h.o.), then 'e.2' would be like this:

e) Middle v Bottom
(1) ...
(2) HAW-NOR (rivalry); ESS-CAR (rivalry); WC-BRI; MEL-GC; WES-FRE; STK-COL.

 

[HaroLad]

Let's just literally change everything as many times as we possibly can.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Never shorten us to WES, WB will do.

 

[Whiskers]

Well I'm impressed.
The AFL probably do something similar or am I giving them far too much credit?

 

[GremioPower]

Well I'm impressed.
The AFL probably do something similar or am I giving them far too much credit?

I would need to check previous seasons and compare them, but it seems to be very close to what they already do, indeed.

For instance, in the top, Sydney (1) actually played against HAW (3), GWS (4), WES (7), STK (9), CAR (14). Its 5 doubles follow the same pattern, with games against two top teams, two middle teams, and one bottom team.

In the middle, taking Port (10) as an example, it played against ADE (5), WC (6), COL (12), GC (15), BRI (17). It is also two top, one middle, and two bottom.

However, in the bottom, Essendon (18) played against ADE (5), COL (12), CAR (14), FRE (16), BRI (17). Now, that is a very soft schedule! ESS has faced one top team, one middle team, and three bottom teams (and from the bottom of their tiers). That is different than what I proposed above. Instead of Dockers and Lions, the Bombers would have played against Bulldogs (7) and Tigers (13).

 

[GremioPower]

Never shorten us to WES, WB will do.

I don't like to use the nicknames in the short version (that's why I wrote "GC" and "WC", instead of "GCS" and "WCE"; since "W" seemed too short, I used "WES" – but, I admit, my preference would be "FOO").

 

[GremioPower]

Rivalries:
CAR-COL-ESS-RIC
ADE-POR
WC-FRE
SYD-GWS
BRI-GC

I would also consider HAW-NOR (Tasmania) and SYD-BRI (old VFL).

 

[HairyO]

Well I'm impressed.
The AFL probably do something similar or am I giving them far too much credit?

The AFL fix the key money spinner games then assign the rest of the games randomly based on their 1 to 6, 7 to 12, 13 to 18 groupings - noting that money spinner games always take priority to any kind of fairness or equality.

 

[footyfan1978]

This is how I got there. If I have missed a rivalry, please, correct me. The Rules to establish the doubles are the following:

I) Teams would play:
a) Top: 2 games vTop; 2, vMid; and 1, vBot.
b) Middle: 2, vTop; 1, vMid; and 2, vBot.
c) Bottom: 1, vTop; 2, vMid; and 2, vBot.

II) Rivalry games would have preference on establishing the opponent for the double.

The part above I've mentioned a few times before is the way they need to go.
Good to see I am not the only one that can see logically it is the next thing they need to do to improve the way they decide which teams meet each other twice.

Well done and will look at your specific examples during the week to see if it fits exactly.

 

[Wallaby]

There's only one way to make it truly fair with 18 teams. It will never happen. But it could work.

34 games. 6-day breaks all the way through (yes, that means playing some games EVERY SINGLE NIGHT - that's why we have TVs, and that's where the money is anyway - look at the crowds the NRL get and wonder how they can afford their salaries - it's TV rights.). 3 byes per team.

So if we started on 1st March (about when the practise games currently start - actually a bit after), last games would be 3rd October. Then play Finals. Finals finish about mid-November.

Clubs would have to play a squad rather than a best-22 every game. Resting and managing bodies (currently done for the old players and those with chronic niggles) would be very common.

Reasons why it would work:

The AFL basically control all the grounds. Gabba, MCG and SCG have alternatives, and anyway, no one is playing serious cricket in Aus in March.
We have lights, so we can play in the evening. AFL could buy Cricket Australia if they wanted to. The cricket will accomodate.
TV rights would increase so clubs would have more money for squads and players.
It's how all the Euro soccer leagues work ('Yeah, but that's soccer - soft game').

Reasons why it wouldn't work:

Tradition. It's a very long season.
Everyone would whinge about 'Oh, 34 games is too many! 22 is the right number!' (despite it being a pure accident of history). 'All the players will die!" - Look, just shut up and try it. No one knows what players 'capacity' is over a season. They start pre-season in October these days. They work pretty hard for 11 months as it is.
The long boring bits of the season would become more long and boring.

As I said at the top - it won't happen (at least not in one go). I expect the season may creep a bit longer over the next decade or so. The big driver will be the TV coverage. The night GF (when it happens - I'm not a fan, but it will happen) will change a lot.
At the moment, the pure 'experience' is going to a game. TV experience will improve. I think there will be live games shown at Fed Square, more footy-based pubs with massive TVs, more club-organised functions around packing crowds into venues (as we currently get for interstate finals). TV rights will drive the game (as if they don't now).

Remember the most important thing about the AFL - $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[GremioPower]

There's only one way to make it truly fair with 18 teams. It will never happen. But it could work.

34 games. 6-day breaks all the way through (yes, that means playing some games EVERY SINGLE NIGHT - that's why we have TVs, and that's where the money is anyway - look at the crowds the NRL get and wonder how they can afford their salaries - it's TV rights.). 3 byes per team.

So if we started on 1st March (about when the practise games currently start - actually a bit after), last games would be 3rd October. Then play Finals. Finals finish about mid-November.

Clubs would have to play a squad rather than a best-22 every game. Resting and managing bodies (currently done for the old players and those with chronic niggles) would be very common.

Reasons why it would work:

The AFL basically control all the grounds. Gabba, MCG and SCG have alternatives, and anyway, no one is playing serious cricket in Aus in March.
We have lights, so we can play in the evening. AFL could buy Cricket Australia if they wanted to. The cricket will accomodate.
TV rights would increase so clubs would have more money for squads and players.
It's how all the Euro soccer leagues work ('Yeah, but that's soccer - soft game').

Reasons why it wouldn't work:

Tradition. It's a very long season.
Everyone would whinge about 'Oh, 34 games is too many! 22 is the right number!' (despite it being a pure accident of history). 'All the players will die!" - Look, just shut up and try it. No one knows what players 'capacity' is over a season. They start pre-season in October these days. They work pretty hard for 11 months as it is.
The long boring bits of the season would become more long and boring.

As I said at the top - it won't happen (at least not in one go). I expect the season may creep a bit longer over the next decade or so. The big driver will be the TV coverage. The night GF (when it happens - I'm not a fan, but it will happen) will change a lot.
At the moment, the pure 'experience' is going to a game. TV experience will improve. I think there will be live games shown at Fed Square, more footy-based pubs with massive TVs, more club-organised functions around packing crowds into venues (as we currently get for interstate finals). TV rights will drive the game (as if they don't now).

Remember the most important thing about the AFL - $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

22 games already take a heavy toll on the players. Imagine 34...