The destruction of our forward line pillars

[Southerntakeover]

Our club has achieved something remarkable over the last five weeks or so. We've managed to turn key forward stocks the envy of the league into no production.

This is the last five games of scoring from our key forwards:

Thilthorpe: 0 goals, 2 goals, 2 goals, 1 goal, 0 goals
Fogarty: 4 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, 0 goals, 0 goals
Walker: 1 Goal, DNP, 1 Goal, 1 Goal, 0 goals.

That's an astonishing 15 goals across 14 games from our three key forwards combined. The numbers are even uglier if you just do the last month and exclude Fog against Collingwood.

Sure the last two games have been in unfavourable weather, but the span also includes West Coast and our destruction of Sydney.

The eye test, without any research, suggests to me that our structure is suffering from both a reversion to bombing to the pack and hoping thilthorpe will take a hanger, an increase in the amount we're targeting Walker who now wins an astronomically low number of one on one marking contests, and a complete absence of any attempt to hit leading key forwards.

Fog has had two extremely quiet weeks. Not good enough. And yet I basically can't remember a single inside 50 target towards him in either game. Thilthorpe's getting some targets, but none are on the lead it seems. This is how they're both most dangerous.

To put this into context, Fogarty has not kicked a goal the last two weeks (or really looked like it), and still kicked the most from the trio across the period.

Have our coaches managed the impossible? Have we actually constructed a structure and ball movement that turned what was basically a can't miss forward line into a toothless team weakness?

 

[Southerntakeover]

Remembering that after the showdown Thilthorpe and Fogarty were both top five in the Coleman guys or thereabouts.

 

[Scorpus]

Remember what happened in the 2023 into 2024 seasons?

Attacking gameplan, leaked some scores, Nicks panicked, ultra defensive start to 2024

This has happened in 2025 except it's within the season not across two seasons.

We were kicking big scores but also leaking goals. Nicks tightened up and it's robbed us of offensive power.

We are now playing slow, down the line football. We never look to change lanes or shift the defence. Most of our entries come from kicks outside 50 close to the boundary which closes off the far side and compresses the ground. Combined with slow ball movement our forwards have no space.

As a result we were able to generate 3 marks inside 50 from 59 entries. Last week we took 6 marks from 47 entries. Even against Sydney we took 5 marks from 70 entries!

In our loss against Gold Coast we generated 13 marks from 53 entries. And 16 against Geelong from 52 entries.

Clear coaching regression

 

[feenix67]

The change happened after the Collingwood game. Despite having the most potent forward line in the comp, we decided to crunch up the game, slow down our transition and play contest to contest down one side of the ground. We never ever ever open up the ground for fear of being exposed on the counter. We take zero risks.

Thats what happens when your coach has a baseline of not trusting the players.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Remember what happened in the 2023 into 2024 seasons?

Attacking gameplan, leaked some scores, Nicks panicked, ultra defensive start to 2024

This has happened in 2025 except it's within the season not across two seasons.

We were kicking big scores but also leaking goals. Nicks tightened up and it's robbed us of offensive power.

We are now playing slow, down the line football. We never look to change lanes or shift the defence. Most of our entries come from kicks outside 50 close to the boundary which closes off the far side and compresses the ground. Combined with slow ball movement our forwards have no space.

As a result we were able to generate 3 marks inside 50 from 59 entries. Last week we took 6 marks from 47 entries. Even against Sydney we took 5 marks from 70 entries!

In our loss against Gold Coast we generated 13 marks from 53 entries. And 16 against Geelong from 52 entries.

Clear coaching regression

Think there’s a bit of chicken-or-the-egg about this. Did we turn our games in dour defensive scraps or do good opposition know that’s how to best quell us?

Regardless, if the first month of footy is “our brand”, you’d want to see it held up against the good sides.

 

[1970crow]

Remember what happened in the 2023 into 2024 seasons?

Attacking gameplan, leaked some scores, Nicks panicked, ultra defensive start to 2024

This has happened in 2025 except it's within the season not across two seasons.

We were kicking big scores but also leaking goals. Nicks tightened up and it's robbed us of offensive power.

We are now playing slow, down the line football. We never look to change lanes or shift the defence. Most of our entries come from kicks outside 50 close to the boundary which closes off the far side and compresses the ground. Combined with slow ball movement our forwards have no space.

As a result we were able to generate 3 marks inside 50 from 59 entries. Last week we took 6 marks from 47 entries. Even against Sydney we took 5 marks from 70 entries!

In our loss against Gold Coast we generated 13 marks from 53 entries. And 16 against Geelong from 52 entries.

Clear coaching regression

The entry strategy isn’t designed to generate scores, it’s designed to limit damage from turnover. And it was first deployed a fair bit earlier than 2023.

 

[maxlilly]

We have lost our dare and attack as Nicks is scared we may cause a turnover and get scored against.
So we play the conservative slow down the line.
And then we have no space for our big guys to lead into.

Nicks is too worried and only sees the negatives, instead of seeing how dangerous we are when we play attacking footy and being positive

 

[George CantStandYa]

But but but we are the number one offensive side (ignore the scores we piled on in the first 3 weeks when we played attacking football)

Nicks is not defensive even if he says he is. His old Captain says he is. He changed our gameplan. He tries to defend a lead rather than keep increasing it.

The guy is a ****wit

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Some of the weather conditions recently have contributed to that lets be honest.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Some of the weather conditions recently have contributed to that lets be honest.

As discussed in the opening post, the numbers include West Coast and Sydney- prime feasting weather.

Gunston still seemed to be able to be effective in last nights weather.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Regardless, if the first month of footy is “our brand”, you’d want to see it held up against the good sides.

The only 'evidence' that the way that we're currently playing can beat a top side is Lachie Neale missing a soda.

We don't beat the top teams when we play like this, we never have.

 

[imagifED]

Knew at the time the Geelong game could scar us and it has. IMO it was actually one of our best performances this season. We conceded a big score that game because of undefendable centre bounce goals with ROB producing an all time stinker, undefendable and uncharacteristic turnovers (Laird kicking into man on the mark, etc) and fatigue from 5 day break. Nothing to do with risky ball movement. We have been stifled ever since.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

The only 'evidence' that the way that we're currently playing can beat a top side is Lachie Neale missing a soda.

We don't beat the top teams when we play like this, we never have.

I’m not convinced how we’re currently playing is our brand, and it certainly shouldn’t be. How we currently play is a reaction to good teams that actively try to kill our brand of footy by turning games into scraps. The fact we can’t really respond, and instead just play scrappy footy, doesn’t reflect well on us tactically.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I’m not convinced how we’re currently playing is our brand, and it certainly shouldn’t be. How we currently play is a reaction to good teams that actively try to kill our brand of footy by turning games into scraps. The fact we can’t really respond, and instead just play scrappy footy, doesn’t reflect well on us tactically.

The sample size includes Sydney and West Coast.

The ineffectiveness of our key forwards is presently a constant regardless of opposition.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Knew at the time the Geelong game could scar us and it has. IMO it was actually one of our best performances this season. We conceded a big score that game because of undefendable centre bounce goals with ROB producing an all time stinker, undefendable and uncharacteristic turnovers (Laird kicking into man on the mark, etc) and fatigue from 5 day break. Nothing to do with risky ball movement. We have been stifled ever since.

I know we like to point to fatigue as a factor but in that second half Geelong completely put the clamps on us and continually forced us long down the line. We kicked 4 goals that second half, which is similar to our scoring against GWS, Fremantle, Collingwood, Brisbane and Hawthorn.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I know we like to point to fatigue as a factor but in that second half Geelong completely put the clamps on us and continually forced us long down the line. We kicked 4 goals that second half, which is similar to our scoring against GWS, Fremantle, Collingwood, Brisbane and Hawthorn.

We had a series of kickable shots in the third that we missed though. Soligo comes to memory.

 

[Scorpus]

We took 15 marks inside 50 in total against Sydney and West Coast combined from 134 inside 50s

We took 14 marks inside 50 against Fremantle from 42 inside 50s. We took 20 against Essendon alone.

We took TRIPLE the marks inside 50 against GWS than we did against Hawthorn, and the GWS game was played in even worse conditions.

It's not a conditions issue

 

[Eddie Murphy]

The sample size includes Sydney and West Coast.

The ineffectiveness of our key forwards is presently a constant regardless of opposition.

I’m not entirely sure what’s being argued here. There’s a stark difference in ball movement between our games against West Coast & Sydney and how we move it against good sides, reflecting in our scoring output. Good sides stifle our movement from half-back, force us long down the line, and don’t allow us many 1v1s inside forward 50.

 

[imagifED]

We had a series of kickable shots in the third that we missed though. Soligo comes to memory.

Was just going to post that. We still looked threatening in the 3rd.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Was just going to post that. We still looked threatening in the 3rd.

Similar to the Collingwood game, the opportunity to re-take control presented and our players bottled it.

Which is the biggest threat to this team having success, and not helped by having a coach that tells them they need to be afraid and lock it down.

 

[FR0GGY]

They are jumping together and not having separation where you’d back fog Thilthorpe and occasions Tex in a 1 on 1 most times.
Then there’s ROB clogging up the deep 50 thinking he’s a 60+ goal forward.
GTFO
Surely has to be instruction as we know they can play together well.

 

[Southerntakeover]

I’m not entirely sure what’s being argued here. There’s a stark difference in ball movement between our games against West Coast & Sydney and how we move it against good sides, reflecting in our scoring output. Good sides stifle our movement from half-back, force us long down the line, and don’t allow us many 1v1s inside forward 50.

And yet even in those games we structure, and enter 50, in ways that do not create shots on goals for our key forwards, being the actual strength of our list and where we have heavily invested draft capital wise.

If the defence you're offering is that we'd like to but that no one in the league will 'allow us', then the problem has to be coaching. Other key forwards seem to be able to get shots at goal.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

We had a series of kickable shots in the third that we missed though. Soligo comes to memory.

If you’re referring to the Geelong game I don’t think we can point to failure to execute considering we kicked above our expected score (xscore had us losing by 27) and Geelong kicked more behinds than us.

 

[1970crow]

Our club has achieved something remarkable over the last five weeks or so. We've managed to turn key forward stocks the envy of the league into no production.

This is the last five games of scoring from our key forwards:

Thilthorpe: 0 goals, 2 goals, 2 goals, 1 goal, 0 goals
Fogarty: 4 goals, 1 goal, 2 goals, 0 goals, 0 goals
Walker: 1 Goal, DNP, 1 Goal, 1 Goal, 0 goals.

That's an astonishing 15 goals across 14 games from our three key forwards combined. The numbers are even uglier if you just do the last month and exclude Fog against Collingwood.

Sure the last two games have been in unfavourable weather, but the span also includes West Coast and our destruction of Sydney.

The eye test, without any research, suggests to me that our structure is suffering from both a reversion to bombing to the pack and hoping thilthorpe will take a hanger, an increase in the amount we're targeting Walker who now wins an astronomically low number of one on one marking contests, and a complete absence of any attempt to hit leading key forwards.

Fog has had two extremely quiet weeks. Not good enough. And yet I basically can't remember a single inside 50 target towards him in either game. Thilthorpe's getting some targets, but none are on the lead it seems. This is how they're both most dangerous.

To put this into context, Fogarty has not kicked a goal the last two weeks (or really looked like it), and still kicked the most from the trio across the period.

Have our coaches managed the impossible? Have we actually constructed a structure and ball movement that turned what was basically a can't miss forward line into a toothless team weakness?

I was driving home a couple of days and Tex was on MMM, Brayshaw opened by saying he was ‘going brilliantly, still taking the best defender, 3 headed monster blah blah’. You just have to assume that very few of the talking heads watch our games.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

And yet even in those games we structure, and enter 50, in ways that do not create shots on goals for our key forwards, being the actual strength of our list and where we have heavily invested draft capital wise.

If the defence you're offering is that we'd like to but that no one in the league will 'allow us', then the problem has to be coaching. Other key forwards seem to be able to get shots at goal.

This was my original point, which is why I’m not sure what we’re arguing about.