bomberswarm2
Club Legend
- Banned
- #1
After the loss to the Crows, we are in big trouble. I have broken down what we have to-do from here to make the 8.
The Run Home:
Round 20 - North Melbourne
Round 21 - Carlton
Round 22 - Richmond
Round 23 - Collingwood
Some Situations:
Win 4 Lose 0 - We are in the 8, maybe 7th or even 6th
Win 3 Lose 1 - We are in the 8
Win 2 Loose 2 - Hinges on margins and other results
Win 1 Loose 3 - Requires Draws and other extraordinary circumstances
Win 0 Loose 4 - Not a hope, look to 2013
Most Likely Scenario:
Round 20 - North Melbourne (Loss)
No severe need to win this game, but if North Win it they are practically in the 8. They have an easier draw, and this is going to be a tough game. Must not loose this game by more than 12-18 points.
Round 21 - Carlton (Win)
Must win game, no matter what happens in round 20. We loose this and we are practically gone. Carlton's season is next to over, and if we loose this our season will be like theirs. Howver, no use in winning this game by 1 point. We must thrash the Blues.
Winning Margin:
1-10 = Were in big trouble
11-30 = Need a big game next week
31-60 = Eases the pressure, still need big win next week
61-90 = Even though this is unlikely, we would still need a sizable win against Richmond.
91+ = Beat Richmond, by 20+, and we'll have a huge chance
Round 22 - Richmond (Win)
Tigers would like nothing more than to kick us out of the September race, and a loss here means we would need to cream the Pies into a soup the next week for any chance of September glory.
Aggregate Winning Margin of above 3 games:
Negitave number - 60: Bye Bye Finals
61 - 100 = If we bet North, we're in (barring a thrashing from the pies). If we didn't, support Melbourne next week.
101 - 160 = Hanging on a knife's edge, once again comes down to Melbourne.
Once Saturday comes around however, there is a more important match if we win. North Melbourne vs Fremantle. This match may decide our season.
Possibilities:
North Win: It all comes down to %agE
Fremantle Win: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games.
Draw: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games, or else they'll both get in by 2 points and we'll have a higher %age than Freo.
Best Result there is North Win. ONE EXCEPTION! If we beat North in round 20, and beat Richmond and Carlton, then if Freo wins we'll be in the finals.
Round 23 - Collingwood (Loss)
Its the biggest, baddest round of them all.
We can't have:
- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
- Fremantle vs Melbourne
If everything above has gone to plan, Freo and North need to win by 100+ to take a spot. Looking at the opponents, should be no problem.
As you can see, massive problems. The better GC and Melbourne do, the better off we are.
Probably can't loose by more than about 3 goals. A win however, seals our spot.
If We Make the 8:
No real point in making the 8 really, other than just to make up the numbers. Depending on results, we'll play either:
- Hawthorn
- Collingwood
- Geelong
- West Coast at Subi
And it dossn't look too good.
What I think will happen:
Our season relies on us winning at least 2 out of 4, winning those by at least a combined 140 points, and not loosing by more than 5 goals total. Even if we somhow manage to get into the 8, we will probably be creamed up by our first round opponent, and if we make it through we play one of the 4 in the above list, plus through the Swans and the Crows into the mix. All that away, mind you.
Prediction:
Essendon will slip out of the 8. I always had us down for the flag in 2013 anyway.
Stray Points:
- A Draw is as good as a loss, except against North
Your Thoughts?
The Run Home:
Round 20 - North Melbourne
Round 21 - Carlton
Round 22 - Richmond
Round 23 - Collingwood
Some Situations:
Win 4 Lose 0 - We are in the 8, maybe 7th
Win 3 Lose 1 - We are in the 8
Win 2 Loose 2 - Hinges on margins and other results
Win 1 Loose 3 - Requires Draws and other extraordinary circumstances
Win 0 Loose 4 - Not a hope, look to 2013
Most Likely Scenario:
Round 20 - North Melbourne (Loss)
No severe need to win this game, but if North Win it they are practically in the 8. They have an easier draw, and this is going to be a tough game. Must not loose this game by more than 12-18 points.
Round 21 - Carlton (Win)
Must win game, no matter what happens in round 20. We loose this and we are practically gone. Carlton's season is next to over, and if we loose this our season will be like theirs. Howver, no use in winning this game by 1 point. We must thrash the Blues.
Winning Margin:
1-10 = Were in big trouble
11-30 = Need a big game next week
31-60 = Eases the pressure, still need big win next week
61-90 = Even though this is unlikely, we would still need a sizable win against Richmond.
91+ = Beat Richmond, by 20+, and we'll have a huge chance
Round 22 - Richmond (Win)
Tigers would like nothing more than to kick us out of the September race, and a loss here means we would need to cream the Pies into a soup the next week for any chance of September glory.
Aggregate Winning Margin of above 3 games:
Negitave number - 60: Bye Bye Finals
61 - 100 = If we bet North, we're in (barring a thrashing from the pies). If we didn't, support Melbourne next week.
101 - 160 = Hanging on a knife's edge, once again comes down to Melbourne.
Once Saturday comes around however, there is a more important match if we win. North Melbourne vs Fremantle. This match may decide our season.
Possibilities:
North Win: It all comes down to %agE
Fremantle Win: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games.
Draw: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games, or else they'll both get in by 2 points and we'll have a higher %age than Freo.
Best Result there is North Win. ONE EXCEPTION! If we beat North in round 20, and beat Richmond and Carlton, then if Freo wins we'll be in the finals.
Round 23 - Collingwood (Loss)
Its the biggest, baddest round of them all.
We can't have:
- Lost more than 1 game until here
- Been thrashed by any of the above clubs
- Not have an aggregate winning margin of at least 120 points
- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
- Fremantle vs Melbourne
If everything above has gone to plan, Freo and North need to win by 100+ to take a spot. Looking at the opponents, should be no problem.
As you can see, massive problems. The better GC and Melbourne do, the better off we are.
Probably can't loose by more than about 3 goals. A win however, seals our spot.
If We Make the 8:
No real point in making the 8 really, other than just to make up the numbers. Depending on results, we'll play either:
- Hawthorn
- Collingwood
- Geelong
- West Coast at Subi
And it dossn't look too good.
What I think will happen:
Our season relies on us winning at least 2 out of 4, winning those by at least a combined 140 points, and not loosing by more than 5 goals total. Even if we somhow manage to get into the 8, we will probably be creamed up by our first round opponent, and if we make it through we play one of the 4 in the above list, plus through the Swans and the Crows into the mix. All that away, mind you.
Prediction:
Essendon will slip out of the 8. I always had us down for the flag in 2013 anyway.
Stray Points:
- A Draw is as good as a loss, except against North
Your Thoughts?
