- Joined
- Oct 14, 2005
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- Norwood, Adelaide Crows
St Kilda
For most of the year the Saints were the league's benchmark side. For 19 weeks they appeared to be all but unbeatable, knocking off the reigning benchmark side (Geelong) in the year's most anticipated game (R14) to become the outright flag favourites.
Then the wheels fell off... In R20 they lost to an Essendon side who were sitting in 9th position at the time. They followed this up with another loss in R21, losing to North Melbourne - a team who weren't good enough to make the finals. Things didn't get a whole lot better in R22, when they were ultra unimpressive in defeating Melbourne, a team with no desire or motivation to win (a victory would have cost them a priority draft pick).
Is their end of year form slump an indicator that they've been doing some Crow-style training overload, with improvement likely as they ease off the workload? Or, did they peak too early and now appear destined to bow out in straight sets? Your call.
Geelong
The cats were undefeated for 13 rounds, before they came across the Saints at the height of their powers. Since then, the team which dominated from R6 2007 to R13 2009 has looked distinctly human. In their arrogance they opted to send their VFL team to the Gabba to take on the Angry Teddy Bears - they came off second best. More importantly, their aura of invincibility was shattered. Since then they've lost to Carlton and Footscray as well - and would have lost to the Crows (at Kardinia Park) had the Adelaide Team managed to kick straight.
Geelong are no longer the benchmark side of the competition. They no longer have an aura of invincibility - teams believe that they can be beaten. Losing that mental edge over the others is likely to cost them in the finals series. They're still purring along, but they do look vulnerable.
Footscray
Along with Adelaide, the Dogs are one of the "form" teams going into the finals series. Their last three weeks were particularly good, knocking off finals contenders Brisbane (in Brisbane), Geelong and Collingwood. Yes, they lost to the Weagles in R19, but I wouldn't read too much into this - it was widely reported that they were flat as a pancake going into the game, due to a Crow-style heavy pre-finals training regime at the time.
For my money, the Dogs have the right to be premiership favourites at this stage.
Collingwood
It's hard to get a serious read on Collingwood. They've had a remarkably soft draw, having played the big 2 (Geelong & St Kilda) just once. They've split their games against Adelaide, Carlton & Footscray 1-1, but defeated the Angry Teddy Bears in both of their encounters.
I certainly wouldn't read anything into the result of their R22 loss to the Bulldogs. They had a top-4 position all sewn up, with no chance of rising to 2nd and no chance of dropping to 5th. They had little (if anything) to play for - so they took it easy to ensure the best possible preparation for the finals. They did the same thing last year, losing to Freo in R22 - and we all remember what happened the following week. It's not dissimilar to the way West Coast and Adelaide played ducks & drakes in our R22 encounter in 2005.
Given their inconsistency against the better teams, it's hard to see the Pies winning 3 straight games against the best teams in the league. I just don't see it happening.
Adelaide
We are all familiar with the way the Crows season has gone. We got off to a poor start, sitting 3-5 after 8 rounds. Since then we've gone 11-3, with those three losses being against St Kilda, Geelong and Collingwood. We held winning positions in both the Geelong and Collingwood games, but poor kicking meant that we were unable to hold out the opposition. St Kilda, on the other hand, made a mess of us.
Our last 3 weeks have been good - a 27 point win over the reigning premiers, followed by a 74 point win over our nemesis side (West Coast) and a 72 point hiding of a finals contender in Carlton.
We bring a solid form line and a powerful forward line to the finals this year, for the first time since 2005. That said, our record against the teams in the top 4 is unconvincing - 1 win and 6 losses. We should definitely make it through to the semi finals, but from there on in it's an unpredictable chook raffle.
Brisbane
I'm not really sure what to make of the Angry Teddy Bears either. They've had a pretty good season, rarely losing to the lower ranked teams (R14 loss to Port was their only defeat by a non-finalist). The highlight was undoubedly their win over Geelong's VFL team in R15.
Their record against the top-4 stands at 1-5, while they've done marginally better against the other 5-8 teams (1-1-2). Even so, they're had just 2 wins and a draw from 10 games against the top-8 sides. That record is unlikely to see them winning the flag this year.
Their last 5 weeks don't exactly inspire confidence either - Collingwood (L), Essendon (D), Footscray (L), Port (W) and Sydney (W).
Carlton
Carlton might find themselves playing an away elimination final, but they have had a better record against the top-4 sides than almost anyone else. They defeated Geelong and split their Collingwood games 1-1, dropping their games against St Kilda and Footscray.
The good news for Blues fans is that they defeated the Angry Teddy Bears in both encounters this year, so they should have no fears about playing an away elimination final at the Gabbattoir.
Prior to the R22 debacle, their form had been excellent - with four consecutive wins over North, Geelong, Port and Melbourne.
Carlton may well survive elimination this week, but it's hard to see them having sufficient weapons to keep going much deeper into September.
Essendon
When Sydney, Port and Hawthorn finished tripping over their toes, Essendon were the last man standing and fell over the line into the finals. That said, they have a better record than you might expect for a team which won less than half their H&A games for the season.
They defeated Carlton twice, split their Collingwood and St Kilda games and drew with the Angry Teddy Bears. That's 4 1/2 wins against the top 8 sides - 2 wins against the top 4.
However, their run to the end of the season doesn't inspire a lot of confidence - their record since R16 has been 2-1-4, though that includes a win against St Kilda and draw with the Angry Teddy Bears.
Having lost Lloyd, Ryder and Lonergan to suspension, they now travel to Football Park to take on a red-hot Adelaide Crows outfit. It's hard to see them emerging victorious.
For most of the year the Saints were the league's benchmark side. For 19 weeks they appeared to be all but unbeatable, knocking off the reigning benchmark side (Geelong) in the year's most anticipated game (R14) to become the outright flag favourites.
Then the wheels fell off... In R20 they lost to an Essendon side who were sitting in 9th position at the time. They followed this up with another loss in R21, losing to North Melbourne - a team who weren't good enough to make the finals. Things didn't get a whole lot better in R22, when they were ultra unimpressive in defeating Melbourne, a team with no desire or motivation to win (a victory would have cost them a priority draft pick).
Is their end of year form slump an indicator that they've been doing some Crow-style training overload, with improvement likely as they ease off the workload? Or, did they peak too early and now appear destined to bow out in straight sets? Your call.
Geelong
The cats were undefeated for 13 rounds, before they came across the Saints at the height of their powers. Since then, the team which dominated from R6 2007 to R13 2009 has looked distinctly human. In their arrogance they opted to send their VFL team to the Gabba to take on the Angry Teddy Bears - they came off second best. More importantly, their aura of invincibility was shattered. Since then they've lost to Carlton and Footscray as well - and would have lost to the Crows (at Kardinia Park) had the Adelaide Team managed to kick straight.
Geelong are no longer the benchmark side of the competition. They no longer have an aura of invincibility - teams believe that they can be beaten. Losing that mental edge over the others is likely to cost them in the finals series. They're still purring along, but they do look vulnerable.
Footscray
Along with Adelaide, the Dogs are one of the "form" teams going into the finals series. Their last three weeks were particularly good, knocking off finals contenders Brisbane (in Brisbane), Geelong and Collingwood. Yes, they lost to the Weagles in R19, but I wouldn't read too much into this - it was widely reported that they were flat as a pancake going into the game, due to a Crow-style heavy pre-finals training regime at the time.
For my money, the Dogs have the right to be premiership favourites at this stage.
Collingwood
It's hard to get a serious read on Collingwood. They've had a remarkably soft draw, having played the big 2 (Geelong & St Kilda) just once. They've split their games against Adelaide, Carlton & Footscray 1-1, but defeated the Angry Teddy Bears in both of their encounters.
I certainly wouldn't read anything into the result of their R22 loss to the Bulldogs. They had a top-4 position all sewn up, with no chance of rising to 2nd and no chance of dropping to 5th. They had little (if anything) to play for - so they took it easy to ensure the best possible preparation for the finals. They did the same thing last year, losing to Freo in R22 - and we all remember what happened the following week. It's not dissimilar to the way West Coast and Adelaide played ducks & drakes in our R22 encounter in 2005.
Given their inconsistency against the better teams, it's hard to see the Pies winning 3 straight games against the best teams in the league. I just don't see it happening.
Adelaide
We are all familiar with the way the Crows season has gone. We got off to a poor start, sitting 3-5 after 8 rounds. Since then we've gone 11-3, with those three losses being against St Kilda, Geelong and Collingwood. We held winning positions in both the Geelong and Collingwood games, but poor kicking meant that we were unable to hold out the opposition. St Kilda, on the other hand, made a mess of us.
Our last 3 weeks have been good - a 27 point win over the reigning premiers, followed by a 74 point win over our nemesis side (West Coast) and a 72 point hiding of a finals contender in Carlton.
We bring a solid form line and a powerful forward line to the finals this year, for the first time since 2005. That said, our record against the teams in the top 4 is unconvincing - 1 win and 6 losses. We should definitely make it through to the semi finals, but from there on in it's an unpredictable chook raffle.
Brisbane
I'm not really sure what to make of the Angry Teddy Bears either. They've had a pretty good season, rarely losing to the lower ranked teams (R14 loss to Port was their only defeat by a non-finalist). The highlight was undoubedly their win over Geelong's VFL team in R15.
Their record against the top-4 stands at 1-5, while they've done marginally better against the other 5-8 teams (1-1-2). Even so, they're had just 2 wins and a draw from 10 games against the top-8 sides. That record is unlikely to see them winning the flag this year.
Their last 5 weeks don't exactly inspire confidence either - Collingwood (L), Essendon (D), Footscray (L), Port (W) and Sydney (W).
Carlton
Carlton might find themselves playing an away elimination final, but they have had a better record against the top-4 sides than almost anyone else. They defeated Geelong and split their Collingwood games 1-1, dropping their games against St Kilda and Footscray.
The good news for Blues fans is that they defeated the Angry Teddy Bears in both encounters this year, so they should have no fears about playing an away elimination final at the Gabbattoir.
Prior to the R22 debacle, their form had been excellent - with four consecutive wins over North, Geelong, Port and Melbourne.
Carlton may well survive elimination this week, but it's hard to see them having sufficient weapons to keep going much deeper into September.
Essendon
When Sydney, Port and Hawthorn finished tripping over their toes, Essendon were the last man standing and fell over the line into the finals. That said, they have a better record than you might expect for a team which won less than half their H&A games for the season.
They defeated Carlton twice, split their Collingwood and St Kilda games and drew with the Angry Teddy Bears. That's 4 1/2 wins against the top 8 sides - 2 wins against the top 4.
However, their run to the end of the season doesn't inspire a lot of confidence - their record since R16 has been 2-1-4, though that includes a win against St Kilda and draw with the Angry Teddy Bears.
Having lost Lloyd, Ryder and Lonergan to suspension, they now travel to Football Park to take on a red-hot Adelaide Crows outfit. It's hard to see them emerging victorious.
Certainly agree with you about C'wood.
