The Old Dark Navy's
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- #1
The finals started yesterday in case you didn't notice.
Most of the year, even recently, we have looked at our draw, looked at the closeness of the competition and thought if we win the games that we should win, we will make the finals ... even after losing some of those games in the first half of the season.
Going into this round, the top 3 looked clear. It was the next 8 going for 5 positions in the finals.
We can safely drop Sydney from this list IMO and probably Hawthorn too.
Why did the finals start early? Well, all of our competition bar Port who haven't played yet, made a statement.
We were hoping for the Bombers to lose to Sydney in Sydney and they won comfortably. That's one game we now have to pull back.
We pencilled in a Brisbane loss until Geelong played their Auskick team, now suddenly we have to pull that one back on Brisbane.
Adelaide were always going to beat Fremantle but to do it the way they did, their percentage is equivalent to an extra game. Another one we have to pull back as we have scraped through games against Freo and Richmond that would have revived our now flagging percentage.
I had us down to beat Sydney, North, Melbourne to give us 11 wins, plus for insurance needing to beat one of Port, Geelong, Collingwood, and Adelaide.
Well, based on form, I now have Essendon winning 5 of their last 7.
Richmond
West Coast
Brisbane (MCG)
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Losing to St Kilda and the Bulldogs, although they are some chance against the Dogs.
The Bombers have lifted and the best we can hope for is for Hawthorn to be back on their game to send a message late that they will be back next year.
If the Bombers win 5, we have to win 5, which means winning two of the Port/Collingwood/Crows games, AND we must keep our percentage above theirs.
I have Port winning 5 games with two 50/50s against Carlton and the Crows.
Melbourne
West Coast
Hawthorn (AAMI)
Fremantle
North
Losing to Brisbane at the Gabba along the way. If they beat us OR win the showdown, they are clear, unless we have pulled out games against Collingwood and Adelaide.
I have Brisbane winning 4 games
Fremantle
North
Port
Sydney
A 50/50 against the Dogs at the Gabba, and have put them down for losses in Melbourne to Collingwood and Essendon.
If Brisbane lose all 3 of those games, we still need to win 5 games and keep our percentage above theirs.
Adelaide have probable losses to St Kilda and Geelong, 50/50 games against Port and Collingwood and Carlton, probable wins against Hawthorn and West Coast.
They are currently 2 games and percentage clear of us. If they only win the two games, we can catch them with 12 wins and probably make up the percentage but they will start favourites against Port. Probably our most realistic chance of making with only 12 wins, but it's only even money at best.
Collingwood have a tough draw but are in form and two games clear. They need only win 3 more to guarantee finishing above us IMO.
They have:
Hawthorn 70/30 chance
Carlton 60/40 chance
Brisbane (MCG) 80/20 chance
Adelaide (AAMI) 50/50 chance
Richmond - automatic win
Sydney (MCG) - win
Bulldogs - 50/50
Realistically the Pies will win at least 5 games and be top 4.
Hawthorn have games against Collingwood, Port, Adelaide and Essendon in the run home. They also have games against Geelong and St Kilda, so have the toughest run home of all teams. They can't make it but we will be hoping they can play like the premiers and knock off a couple of our competitors.
I'll take a look at the Bulldogs who have a tough run home also but are 2 games and massive percentage ahead.
They have guaranteed wins against Freo and West Coast but a string of 50/50 games against:
Essendon
St Kilda
Brisbane (Gabba)
Geelong
Collingwood
What we don't want is for teams like the Bulldogs to be inconsistent. Either lose ALL of these 50/50s or win the vital ones. If they don't beat Essendon, Essendon are in the clear. The big one for us is the Gabba game against Brisbane. Dogs must win that.
Sydney are gone even if they start running hot. Home games against Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane and away games against Carlton and Collingwood while starting two games behind, we can only hope we beat them and they provide nuisance value to Brisbane and Collingwood.
Earlier in the season it was looking like 11 games, even 10 games might sneak you into the 8. Now it is guaranteed that 12 games is the minimum and you may even have a deadlock on 13 games.
No more shocks, no more flat games, no more drop in intensity ... the finals have arrived early and the other teams are on to it before we are.
We are a very real chance of being called Ninthton next year unless we get a better run with injuries and settle our side down selection wise.
Most of the year, even recently, we have looked at our draw, looked at the closeness of the competition and thought if we win the games that we should win, we will make the finals ... even after losing some of those games in the first half of the season.
Going into this round, the top 3 looked clear. It was the next 8 going for 5 positions in the finals.
We can safely drop Sydney from this list IMO and probably Hawthorn too.
Why did the finals start early? Well, all of our competition bar Port who haven't played yet, made a statement.
We were hoping for the Bombers to lose to Sydney in Sydney and they won comfortably. That's one game we now have to pull back.
We pencilled in a Brisbane loss until Geelong played their Auskick team, now suddenly we have to pull that one back on Brisbane.
Adelaide were always going to beat Fremantle but to do it the way they did, their percentage is equivalent to an extra game. Another one we have to pull back as we have scraped through games against Freo and Richmond that would have revived our now flagging percentage.
I had us down to beat Sydney, North, Melbourne to give us 11 wins, plus for insurance needing to beat one of Port, Geelong, Collingwood, and Adelaide.
Well, based on form, I now have Essendon winning 5 of their last 7.
Richmond
West Coast
Brisbane (MCG)
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Losing to St Kilda and the Bulldogs, although they are some chance against the Dogs.
The Bombers have lifted and the best we can hope for is for Hawthorn to be back on their game to send a message late that they will be back next year.
If the Bombers win 5, we have to win 5, which means winning two of the Port/Collingwood/Crows games, AND we must keep our percentage above theirs.
I have Port winning 5 games with two 50/50s against Carlton and the Crows.
Melbourne
West Coast
Hawthorn (AAMI)
Fremantle
North
Losing to Brisbane at the Gabba along the way. If they beat us OR win the showdown, they are clear, unless we have pulled out games against Collingwood and Adelaide.
I have Brisbane winning 4 games
Fremantle
North
Port
Sydney
A 50/50 against the Dogs at the Gabba, and have put them down for losses in Melbourne to Collingwood and Essendon.
If Brisbane lose all 3 of those games, we still need to win 5 games and keep our percentage above theirs.
Adelaide have probable losses to St Kilda and Geelong, 50/50 games against Port and Collingwood and Carlton, probable wins against Hawthorn and West Coast.
They are currently 2 games and percentage clear of us. If they only win the two games, we can catch them with 12 wins and probably make up the percentage but they will start favourites against Port. Probably our most realistic chance of making with only 12 wins, but it's only even money at best.
Collingwood have a tough draw but are in form and two games clear. They need only win 3 more to guarantee finishing above us IMO.
They have:
Hawthorn 70/30 chance
Carlton 60/40 chance
Brisbane (MCG) 80/20 chance
Adelaide (AAMI) 50/50 chance
Richmond - automatic win
Sydney (MCG) - win
Bulldogs - 50/50
Realistically the Pies will win at least 5 games and be top 4.
Hawthorn have games against Collingwood, Port, Adelaide and Essendon in the run home. They also have games against Geelong and St Kilda, so have the toughest run home of all teams. They can't make it but we will be hoping they can play like the premiers and knock off a couple of our competitors.
I'll take a look at the Bulldogs who have a tough run home also but are 2 games and massive percentage ahead.
They have guaranteed wins against Freo and West Coast but a string of 50/50 games against:
Essendon
St Kilda
Brisbane (Gabba)
Geelong
Collingwood
What we don't want is for teams like the Bulldogs to be inconsistent. Either lose ALL of these 50/50s or win the vital ones. If they don't beat Essendon, Essendon are in the clear. The big one for us is the Gabba game against Brisbane. Dogs must win that.
Sydney are gone even if they start running hot. Home games against Geelong, St Kilda, Brisbane and away games against Carlton and Collingwood while starting two games behind, we can only hope we beat them and they provide nuisance value to Brisbane and Collingwood.
Earlier in the season it was looking like 11 games, even 10 games might sneak you into the 8. Now it is guaranteed that 12 games is the minimum and you may even have a deadlock on 13 games.
No more shocks, no more flat games, no more drop in intensity ... the finals have arrived early and the other teams are on to it before we are.
We are a very real chance of being called Ninthton next year unless we get a better run with injuries and settle our side down selection wise.
