The finals have started early

[Juddys_navy_blues]

Graet win by Melbourne, puts us a game and nearly 17% ahead of 9th which is a huge help. All up to us from here.

 

[Warsaw]

Simple theory
Win all our games for the rest of the year.

Technically speaking that would mean we'd win the Grand Final too

 

[blue gunslinger]

Good point
Celebrate

 

[as0l0]

the only problem with the demons winning is that it may make our boys complacent.

 

[CrippsonBlue]

With the benfit of the completion of this round, I think ODN's suggestion of 5 more wins can now be changed.

Lets forget all teams inside the 8, and only concentrate on the teams outside the top 8 who can take our spot. Im only concerned with making finals - if its in 8th position, so be it.

Therefore, the only teams that can take our place are Port, Sydney or the Hawks. Due to percentage, the only way each of these three teams can take our spot is by gaining an extra win than us.

That means Port & Hawks need to win 2 more games than us this year, & Sydney need to win 3 more than us from the remaining 7 games.

Lets err on the side of caution and say we only win 3 more games this year. Thats 5 wins from 7 games needed from Port & Hawks, and 6 wins from 7 games needed from Sydney.

Sydney

Would need to win 2 of the following games, as well as win all their other games: Saints, Geelong, Collingwood

Hawks

Would need to win 2 from the following, as well as win all their other games: Collingwood, Geelong, Saints, Crows

Port

Would need to win 2 from the following, as well as win all their other games: Crows, Brisbane (Gabba), Hawks, Carlton

As weird as it is to say after their loss today, Port are the only team who have a chance of taking our spot. Their other games are all winnable, and it is POSSIBLE that they may win 2 of those 4. If we win 4 games for the rest of the year however, they'd need to win 6 of the last 7, which basically means we're in.

2 things need to happen for us to miss finals:

1) We win less than 3 games
2) We only win 3 games, and Port win 5 of the remaining 7

Both are unlikely - however again to err on the side of caution, the worst case scenerio may be that the winner of the Port v Blues match determines who plays finals. If that be the case, let our fate be in our own hands in what really would be a 50/50 game...

The Bottom Line

5 wins - We are GUARANTEED to play finals
4 wins - We are ALMOST GUARANTEED to play finals unless Port win 6 of their remaining 7.
3 wins - We are still VERY LIKELY to play finals, unless one of the unlikely scenarios from above occur.
Less than 3 wins - Sack Ratten, trade Fevola, delist half our squad, grab the pitchforks, and lets form a f^cking mob!

 

[bluekidjoe]

Plain and simple: lets beat Sydney, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Melbourne and we're there!

Throw in the pies just so we can keep the wood.

If we can get over the line against the swans this week hopefully getting back Carlos, Aussie and Scotto, we will get some quality players back against the pies in Walker, Bower and Hammer... With these ins we should be able to do some damage in the arse end.

 

[LemmingMaster]

With these ins we should be able to do some damage in the arse end.

Great use of words.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Plain and simple: lets beat Sydney, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Melbourne and we're there!

Throw in the pies just so we can keep the wood.

If we can get over the line against the swans this week hopefully getting back Carlos, Aussie and Scotto, we will get some quality players back against the pies in Walker, Bower and Hammer... With these ins we should be able to do some damage in the arse end.

Whilst I dont fear losing to the Swans in Melbourne, dont count on Carlos yet, we dont know if he is over whatever kept him out. General soreness is the reason clubs give when they dont want to say what is really wrong. And we may be sans Hammer too. Which leaves Kruezer rucking one out with either Cloke or Carlos if he is back against Jolly a fair ruckman. (Sauce would still be a few games at Preston away yet).

The the week after against the pies, expecting much from Tex is a big ask, he will probably play his first game for the Ants next weekend and after 9 months without a hit out, it is a bit much to expect him to come up straight away.

Now people know me as an eternal optimist but we need even performances from most on each team to get across the line in the next 2 to 3 weeks, you would think we should beat Swans, and hope the hawks give the pies a bone crunching game but that is our big one, we were lucky enough to get them in a mini slump earlier in the season with question marks over the fitness or form of a lot of their list with only Neon playing to ability at the time, but we do seem to lift for them and could beat them. You would think we would beat North given they are well and truly out of it now. But 3 out of the next 3 and anything becomes possible. Top 4 would still be possible given that scenario because you would think we would also beat Melbourne, that would just leave Geelong and Adelaide as unlikely wins but again possible. By the time we meet them Geelong may be resting half their squad again! Adelaide have momentum and they touched us up in Adelaide but they are no guarantee to beat us in Melbourne. Port in Adelaide depends on 2 things, if they are out of contention by the time we play them and if the poor port turns up and the good blues.

Exciting times.

 

[dirk pitt]

With the benfit of the completion of this round, I think ODN's suggestion of 5 more wins can now be changed.

Lets forget all teams inside the 8, and only concentrate on the teams outside the top 8 who can take our spot. Im only concerned with making finals - if its in 8th position, so be it.

Therefore, the only teams that can take our place are Port, Sydney or the Hawks. Due to percentage, the only way each of these three teams can take our spot is by gaining an extra win than us.

That means Port & Hawks need to win 2 more games than us this year, & Sydney need to win 3 more than us from the remaining 7 games.

Lets err on the side of caution and say we only win 3 more games this year. Thats 5 wins from 7 games needed from Port & Hawks, and 6 wins from 7 games needed from Sydney.

Sydney

Would need to win 2 of the following games, as well as win all their other games: Saints, Geelong, Collingwood

Hawks

Would need to win 2 from the following, as well as win all their other games: Collingwood, Geelong, Saints, Crows

Port

Would need to win 2 from the following, as well as win all their other games: Crows, Brisbane (Gabba), Hawks, Carlton

As weird as it is to say after their loss today, Port are the only team who have a chance of taking our spot. Their other games are all winnable, and it is POSSIBLE that they may win 2 of those 4. If we win 4 games for the rest of the year however, they'd need to win 6 of the last 7, which basically means we're in.

2 things need to happen for us to miss finals:

1) We win less than 3 games
2) We only win 3 games, and Port win 5 of the remaining 7

Both are unlikely - however again to err on the side of caution, the worst case scenerio may be that the winner of the Port v Blues match determines who plays finals. If that be the case, let our fate be in our own hands in what really would be a 50/50 game...

The Bottom Line

5 wins - We are GUARANTEED to play finals
4 wins - We are ALMOST GUARANTEED to play finals unless Port win 6 of their remaining 7.
3 wins - We are still VERY LIKELY to play finals, unless one of the unlikely scenarios from above occur.
Less than 3 wins - Sack Ratten, trade Fevola, delist half our squad, grab the pitchforks, and lets form a f^cking mob!

Why aim so low? We have arguably the easiest run home of any team. Your own analysis shows we basically can't miss the eight a this point unless there was an improbable form reversal by the botton 6 sides.

Surely 6th and a final in Melb rather than in Brisbane or Adelaide is a realistic goal now.

 

[CrippsonBlue]

Why aim so low? We have arguably the easiest run home of any team. Your own analysis shows we basically can't miss the eight a this point unless there was an improbable form reversal by the botton 6 sides.

Surely 6th and a final in Melb rather than in Brisbane or Adelaide is a realistic goal now.

Of course I want 6th spot to ensure a home final - moreso because I have done a predicted ladder and have us playing the Lions at the Gabba week one.

I don't think we can pinch 6th spot though - largely because of the Lions upset win, and our own inconsistant form. That is not aiming low - I am just being realistic with what I think will occur.

To be honest though my only concern is finals - it has just been that long. As such, I'm only worried about what scenarios can occur that will make us miss.

Anything on top of this will obviously be a bonus.

 

[Malifice]

To be honest though my only concern is finals - it has just been that long. As such, I'm only worried about what scenarios can occur that will make us miss.

Anything on top of this will obviously be a bonus.

Agree 95%...

Don't get me wrong... the pass mark is just making the finals. Anything less than that is a fail.

But we really do need to bear in mind the probable competition in the bottom half of the eight...

We get to 6th spot and we secure a home game vs:

a) Brisbane.
b) Port.
c) Adelaide.
d) Essendon (irrelevant)

(I do NOT want elimination final vs the Crows in Adelaide...)

6th is within reach... I'm not getting sucked into the hype nor am I being unrealistic... I just believe it should be the goal from here on in.