Preview The Next 4 Weeks

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After the first 4 rounds we sit 6th with a 3-1 record and a percentage of 115. We are also a game and % inside the 8 in our quest to end our finals drought. With that I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the next 4 weeks and compare how our draw could pan out.

Round 5
We play Fremantle away in what is shaping as an 8 point game given the Dockers are a game and % behind us in 9th. A win for us on Friday night would see us 2 games and % ahead of a side that is a true contender for a finals spot. A genuine 50-50 game IMO given the Dockers outs.

Round 6
We front up against Geelong at the MCG on a Saturday night. Geelong should be 5-0 heading into the game given they play the Dogs in round 5. We went close to knocking them off last year down at Simmonds and it's a great opportunity to test ourselves again. At this stage I'd say it's a 40-60 game.

Round 7
We hit the road against Port who are currently flying at 4-0. However they have a couple of tough games coming up against the Eagles and Kangaroos, which could burst their early season bubble. Last year we beat them comfortably over there and were held to a draw at home. If we really want to be a top 8 contender this is a game we should win. For mine a 60-40 game.

Round 8
Back at home against the Dees we should be looking for a % boosting win (yeah I know getting ahead of ourselves again) but if we are thinking of being a top 8 side that is how we should be treating this game.

At worse we need to go 2-2 over this little bracket of games. Ideally it would be great to go 3-1 again which would see us at 6-2 heading into a crucial couple of games before the bye.

 

[Dragonss]

Would say that against Port it's 40-60

 

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Would say that against Port it's 40-60

Not at all convinced about Port, they played Melbourne GWS Adelaide(who stink) and Gold Coast in their 4 games. Those sides last year were a combined 26 wins(Crows had 17)-62 losses. Lets see how they fair against some genuine competition first.

 

[Groupie_]

All I see is wins

 

[Dragonss]

Not at all convinced about Port, they played Melbourne GWS Adelaide(who stink) and Gold Coast in their 4 games. Those sides last year were a combined 26 wins(Crows had 17)-62 losses. Lets see how they fair against some genuine competition first.

But they've got a really exciting team with Wingard, Wines, Cornes, Boak, Hartlett, Schultz, Gray etc... all of who are in form. I admit they have had a soft draw at the beginning of the season but make no doubt it they're good and on the up. Also the fact that Ablett looked underdone with his forearm or hand soreness, and Bennell a late withdrawal we could say that it was ordinary.

 

[Dragonss]

All I see is wins

Close the lid, mate.

 

[juss]

I'll take a 5-3 ratio.
Anything better would be great, 4-4 would be dissapointing but not disasterous.
3-5 would be a horror run, and I don't think that's possible. At worst we will break even which is perfectly okay at this stage of the season. We just don't want to fall too far behind breaking even and then hope we can push for that extra win or 2 to take the 12-13 wins needed to secure finals.

 

[Riskingheadandshin]

With North, WCE and Carlton 2 games behind, and Freo and Adelaide 1 game behind. 2 wins is a must I'd reckon to keep out in front of the chasers.

EDIT:

Round 5 Notables
Ess v Pies
Blues v Crows
Power v WCE
Hawks v Roos

Would make a win on Friday HUGE.

 

[WATiger86]

So if we agree that the cats game is a probable loss, 6-2 at best - 4-4 at worst - While 4-4 would not be the end of the world, losing to port would essentially undo the good result that was the win against the blues in rd 1 and leave us where we were last season scappring for 8th.

 

[tunksy]

beat freo this week would be a huge boost to our finals chances however i cant see them losing 3 in a row, losing at home again AND lyon is their coach lol this will be a very very hard game. need to fix our tackling in this game. everyone needs to lay 2. cotch, lids, martin, conca and tuck need to lay 3 or more each imo.

cat are on fire at the moment. hawkins a clear worry after the cloke game. (i expect chaplin will be rested vs freo in prep for this). maric needs to expose them in the ruck big time. hopefully grigg is firing by then too.

port a traveling very well and confidence is up. midfield is playing very well together. if westoff's form continues we will need to put some work into how to stop him, his is playing on a wing similar to richo late in his career, he is tall and has a big frame too.

dees, (sorry) but we need to put them to the slaughter and have the biggest win under hardwick yet (80-100. previous best is 70 against the dogs in 2012). showcase how good we are to frawley too...

 

[Mogwai]

Wins against Port and Melbourne will not do any good to our cause imo.

In order to be taken seriously by everyone in the competition we need to dislodge Geelong or Freo.

3-1 is acceptable. 2-2 is the Tiger of 2012, that would be the bar of failure this year. The team of 2013 needs to be of a different, finals-challenging class.

Hopefully I'm not asking for too much.

 

[SA TIGER]

Would say that against Port it's 40-60

I'd agree with you there.
We just need to look at the matches last season to justify the 40-60 ratio.
We smacked them over at AAMI in the early part of the season, then they ended our winning streak in the last round by drawing the match at the G.
We were on a mini roll until we could only manage a draw.
AAMI Stadium has been fairly kind to us in recent seasons, but they have dominated us at that venue for a very long period.

 

[TigerTime88]

I am also not sold on the Port story. They have improved but only beat Mel, Gws, GC and the crows who ares struggling.

 

[DustinsGuns]

We could easily lose the next 3, beat Melbourne and end up 4-4 I reckon.

I struggle to see how we can beat Fremantle who are just too fast and fit for us. They are a guenuine top 4 team.

Geelong are similar to Collingwood - we just won't beat them.

Port have a full head of steam, they have alot of goal scoring power and are another quick team. Over here I would fancy us, but they will be favourites imo

 

[Dragonss]

Joel Selwood will single handedly lift Geelong over the line if they struggle. Their development is sublime, over the past couple of years i've been saying they'd let their guard down and not play finals anymore, but they just keep on trucking.

 

[Groupie_]

I am also not sold on the Port story. They have improved but only beat Mel, Gws, GC and the crows who ares struggling.

I'll start believing if they beat Wet Toast.

They could finish 10th imo

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

We could easily lose the next 3, beat Melbourne and end up 4-4 I reckon.

I struggle to see how we can beat Fremantle who are just too fast and fit for us. They are a guenuine top 4 team.

Geelong are similar to Collingwood - we just won't beat them.

Port have a full head of steam, they have alot of goal scoring power and are another quick team. Over here I would fancy us, but they will be favourites imo

Based on what?

Knocking over an injury riddled West Coast?
Scrapping over the Dogs in Melbourne?
Getting done by the Bombers on their home turf?
Getting flogged by Hawthorn?

They have injuries and the current club has done nothing to suggest it's top 4 quality. The only time they've finished top 4 is 2006. They are overhyped at the moment and definitely beatable. Probably 60-40 in their favour still.

 

[acr2751]

we need to stick to the process and only focus on fremantle 1 game at a time

 

[Del65166]

our record in the west is not bad
freo have some form/personnel issues ATM
V.2013 Richmond has been good so far.

they are coming of a couple of losses
they are at home
they have been better coached

makes for a match that will say a lot about both teams.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Despite our record over there we actually have run close to the Dockers in the past,This is a 50/50 match imo,infact the loss to the Pies could be a godsend for us.I'm also confident in getting over Geelong as well.

 

[rfctiger90]

Lol cannot believe people jumping on port!! They were terrible last year, their list hasn't massively changed. They've beaten 4 VERY average teams right now. No chance of making finals. None

 

[tigertaskforce]

Lol cannot believe people jumping on port!! They were terrible last year, their list hasn't massively changed. They've beaten 4 VERY average teams right now. No chance of making finals. None

tend to agree but history has shown OFTEN what happens if you dont respect your opponent !!!! 50/50 for mine

 

[NUFC Tiger]

After the 3-0 start, I was always of the impression we needed to beat 1 of Collingwood, Freo or Geelong. At the start of the season, I had Geelong as that team as I thought they would slide but on current form, they will probably be the hardest of the 3. Given our disappointing loss to Collingwood, the Freo game is huge for us. No Pav and Sandilands is a bonus but losing Morris and maybe Chaplin hurts.

If we can win the Freo, Port and Melbourne games, that would give us a decent platform to build on. With so many 50-50 games in the second half of the year against teams also fighting for the 8, it would be a massive boost to have a few games in hand over those teams. Carlton also have a decent run of games coming up which should see them rise up the ladder quickly.

 

[Bazzar]

One win in the next 2 makes us 4-2 with games against Port, Melb, Dogs, Saints, Suns, Lions and GWS all winnable.

Could be 11-2 (10-3 if we lose the next two) and we just need to pinch a few wins against Bombers, Eagles, Crows, North, Freo, Swans, Hawks, Blooze and Bombers, and if we are a top 8 team like the experts are saying, surly we will get the 2 or 3 that will give us a finals berth.

Bolded games we should be right in the mix, and Bombers we are 11 wins to 10 in the last 21 games so we should get one of those, so it just leaves the Freo (at the G) Swans, Hawks and Blooze as the real tough ones.

 

[Dragonss]

our record in the west is not bad
freo have some form/personnel issues ATM
V.2013 Richmond has been good so far.

they are coming of a couple of losses
they are at home
they have been better coached

makes for a match that will say a lot about both teams.

I don't think Freo have had form issues, it's just that they've played against better teams. What personal issues are you talking about?