The off topic thread 4.0

[Bojan KantKick]

Do you have sources for these?
I haven't looked at domestic violence but I thought I had seen stuff saying suicide hadn't risen significantly.

ONS haven't released the figures for suicides for the last 18 months which is pretty telling...

My sources are doctors and paramedics.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Every model presented by SAGE throughout this pandemic has been ridiculously wrong. Highest death toll in Europe and we haven't come close to their best case scenario. Some dickhead from PHE was saying that we should be wearing masks for the next decade. Susan Michie from SAGE who.has been bleating over the last few days is a shrink and 40 year member of the British Communist party. The less said about Neil Ferguson the better.

It makes it hard for the public to take these 'experts' seriously.

They warned weeks ago of this latest spike…


They forewarned this and advised to delay 4



Can keep ignoring science but denial eventually needs to face reality.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

They warned weeks ago of this latest spike…
View attachment 1171758

They forewarned this and advised to delay 4



Can keep ignoring science but denial eventually needs to face reality.

Those aren't SAGE models. We have been told that pre vaccine, cases are what matter. Now we are told post vaccination that deaths are what matter. Deaths are **** all per day so we are opening up.

The people who are dying are either extremely vulnerable or haven't had the vaccine.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Those aren't SAGE models. We have been told that pre vaccine, cases are what matter. Now we are told post vaccination that deaths are what matter. Deaths are fu** all per day so we are opening up.

The people who are dying are either extremely vulnerable or haven't had the vaccine.

Just simply pointing out Ferguson came out and warned weeks ago on those figures going up and those graphs confirm. Hopefully you’re right and variants dont kill the younger age group as in India.

 

[Loonerty]

I know someone directly who lost their business, went in to severe depression and ended up being ostracised from his kids thanks to covid restrictions killing his business. It's definitely happening, the mental health & social costs are significant. There is a point where once all vulnerable people are vaccinated and enough of the general population is vaccinated you just have to live life as normal, just like we do today with the flu that killed 50 million when it broke out in 1918-20. Hopefully we can get above 50-60% vaccinated here at the minimum. That should be enough to end the lockdowns that are devastating businesses and people's lives.

I don't think I said it's not happening, just that I thought I had seen something saying rates hadn't been unusually higher than expected.
Just wanted to know if there were some reports saying that actually they were higher.

ONS haven't released the figures for suicides for the last 18 months which is pretty telling...

My sources are doctors and paramedics.

Okay. I've found stuff on the first lockdown last year saying that there hadn't been a noticeable rise during lockdown or the months after.
But obviously a second lockdown might be completely different.

(here are links:

What has been the effect of covid-19 on suicide rates?

Suicide rates haven’t risen, but we should be cautious Not a week passes without a story in the press about the impact of covid-19 on suicide. Claims on social media seem to appear daily. A year into the pandemic, what is the evidence? The short answer is that there has been little effect. But...

www.bmj.com

Suicide in England in the COVID-19 pandemic: Early observational data from real time surveillance

We did not find a rise in suicide rates in England in the months after the first national lockdown began in 2020, despite evidence of greater distress. However, a number of caveats apply. These are early figures and may change. Any effect of the pandemic may vary by population group or...

www.thelancet.com

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56818876 [references University of Manchester study])

 

[Loonerty]

Not sure why that second link has changed to say DEFINE_ME but the link still works.

 

[Loonerty]

Meanwhile in straya in 2022..

2022?
The Australian GP was going to be in November this year. That has been cancelled, probably because of the issues with mandatory quarantine.

Don't think anything has been said regarding the 2022 GP which is probably booked for March next year.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Just simply pointing out Ferguson came out and warned weeks ago on those figures going up and those graphs confirm. Hopefully you’re right and variants dont kill the younger age group as in India.

Bold call by him. Shame his models were wrong again.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Damn.

The Donner Cut of Superman 2 is still the best superhero movie that's ever been made. (No one will ever top Terrance Stamp's amazing performance as General Zod)

So many fan favourite/cult movies Donner made over the years.

He will be missed.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Bold call by him. Shame his models were wrong again. View attachment 1171778

That was their worst case scenario.

 

[jd2010]

2022?
The Australian GP was going to be in November this year. That has been cancelled, probably because of the issues with mandatory quarantine.

Don't think anything has been said regarding the 2022 GP which is probably booked for March next year.

It's off this year due to 2 reasons

1) Not enough of the population will be vaccinated to have a covid safe international crowd.
Austria had 103k in attendance on the weekend all had both jabs. 35% of their population has had both and over 50% have had one. EU vistors could attend with proof of vaccination.
UK allowing 60k into Wembley and have over 50% fully vaccinated.
Australia currently sitting at 7%

2) Not enough spaces being made available for Australians returning so the backlash from letting in 1000's of foreigners for a race that 95% of the country don't care about won't work.

I'm unfortunately part of the 5% that do care about the race. But there's no logical way around points #1 and #2, especially point #2 which is why it has been cancelled so far in advance. The vaccination rate will improve by November and with COVID largely out of the country that alone wouldn't stop the race. But the outrage bringing in that many people from Europe/US/Asia with Australian's not able to return "home" (somehow still stranded after 18 months of a pandemic) would have been nuts.

 

[Loonerty]

It's off this year due to 2 reasons

1) Not enough of the population will be vaccinated to have a covid safe international crowd.
Austria had 103k in attendance on the weekend all had both jabs. 35% of their population has had both and over 50% have had one.
UK allowing 60k into Wembley and have over 50% fully vaccinated.
Australia currently sitting at 7%

2) Not enough spaces being made available for Australians returning so the backlash from letting in 1000's of foreigners for a race that 95% of the country don't care about won't work.

I'm unfortunately part of the 5% that do care about the race. But there's no logical way around points #1 and #2, especially point #2 which is why it has been cancelled so far out. The vaccination rate will improve by November and with COVID largely out of the country that alone wouldn't stop the race. But the outrage bringing in that many people from Europe/US/Asia with Australian's not able to return "home" (somehow still stranded after 18 months of a pandemic) would have been nuts.

Also the fact they have a race in Brazil (which is, in itself, stupid) 2 weeks before so the quarantine period just wouldn't work.

 

[jd2010]

Also the fact they have a race in Brazil (which is, in itself, stupid) 2 weeks before so the quarantine period just wouldn't work.

Yeah they would want an exemption from quarantining or a bubble setup for them to still get into the country and race for that week they are over

 

[moomba]

There's a big timing issue here. Most of the infections I believe are amongst the younger generation, 10 day isolations from school are common place (my kids have been lucky so far, but most of my daughters high school friends have isolated, one two times in the last month. Better in primary school where only a few of my sons friends have isolated).

June 23 school breaks up, and there's a 6 week break before the start of the new school year. It is a great time to mitigate the effects of restrictions easing.

Delay again and you're looking at easing during the new school year when kids are mixing again, delaying further until the British winter when we'll probably have another wave regardless, or delaying further again until 2022.

It's much better now but the UK has been under some form of restrictions for 16 months already. And a decent percentage started to ignore the rules months ago anyway.

Can keep ignoring science but denial eventually needs to face reality.

This idea that "science" has one set of advice or recommendation that must be followed doesn't really stand to reason. On any decision made, there will be scientists that agree, and scientists that disagree. Go back a few months and there were scientists all over the press talking about how damaging restrictions were.

So it's no so much a matter of ignoring the science, it's following that science that might not necessarily match your point of view.

 

[moomba]

FWIW at its peak, we had up to 50 people off at my work. Its currently 9 but that has risen steeply in the past few days.

Although I've got a feeling that if 1 or 2 made the decision to isolate shortly after the quarter final.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

This idea that "science" has one set of advice or recommendation that must be followed doesn't really stand to reason. On any decision made, there will be scientists that agree, and scientists that disagree. Go back a few months and there were scientists all over the press talking about how damaging restrictions were.

So it's no so much a matter of ignoring the science, it's following that science that might not necessarily match your point of view.

Doesn’t the govt follow the advice of their health experts in the field like they do here and most other places? Those scientists who have commented re economic implications are usually not experts in the field and most importantly not advising the govt. As here though I’m sure Chief Health Officer and team take into account mental health implications when deciding on their advice and weigh up pros and cons. Bottom line is their advice is based on science available.

 

[moomba]

Doesn’t the govt follow the advice of their health experts in the field like they do here and most other places? Those scientists who have commented re economic implications are usually not experts in the field and most importantly not advising the govt. As here though I’m sure Chief Health Officer and team take into account mental health implications when deciding on their advice and weigh up pros and cons. Bottom line is their advice is based on science available.

Even within Sage there are wildly differing views on how the government should be dealing with things.

Some are pro lockdown, some are pro freedom, and whichever way they go some scientists will say its the right way and some will say its wrong.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

That was their worst case scenario.

Here is a history of the modeler influencing the government's decisions.

Redirect Notice

Publicity seeking charlatan is an apt description.

SAGE scientists says modelling underestimated power of vaccines

Dr Mike Tildesley and his team predicted there could be 72,000 deaths from the virus before next winter despite the successful roll-out. But he admitted the UK was now in a 'better situation' than expected.

www.google.com

 

[99 Problems]

If England can’t reopen even after vaccinating the population, then what is the alternative? Genuinely curious.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Here is a history of the modeler influencing the government's decisions.

Redirect Notice

Publicity seeking charlatan is an apt description.

SAGE scientists says modelling underestimated power of vaccines

Dr Mike Tildesley and his team predicted there could be 72,000 deaths from the virus before next winter despite the successful roll-out. But he admitted the UK was now in a 'better situation' than expected.

www.google.com

Mistakes have been made…but plenty of sound advice. Who else do they listen to then if not the experts in the field if not the CMO and Chief Scientific Officer? Hopefully numbers don’t get too high to the point it creates new variant that renders current vaccine useless.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

If England can’t reopen even after vaccinating the population, then what is the alternative? Genuinely curious.

Some people would like restrictions to stay indefinitely

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Mistakes have been made…but plenty of sound advice. Who else do they listen to then if not the experts in the field if not the CMO and Chief Scientific Officer? Hopefully numbers don’t get too high to the point it creates new variant that renders current vaccine useless.

They should only be listening to Whitty and Valance. Not that other shower, SAGE, and even worse, independent SAGE. Half of them aren't even ****ing scientists.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

They should only be listening to Whitty and Valance. Not that other shower, SAGE, and even worse, independent SAGE. Half of them aren't even ******* scientists.

?? Whitty and Vallance are the co-chairs of Sage.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

?? Whitty and Vallance are the co-chairs of Sage.

They should be listened to in their roles as CMO and Chief Scientific Officer.

 

[Bradesmaen]

If England can’t reopen even after vaccinating the population, then what is the alternative? Genuinely curious.

I don't think people are arguing against opening up like the rest of Europe are doing. But look at the case numbers versus the UK and you'll see they are managing it better. Indoor dining in Germany is for negative antigen testing, vaccinated or recovered. The UK it's for any pisshead. They have also ignored the recommendations of the CMO at the same press conference who said he'd wear a mask in enclosed spaces but that law has been dropped. It's just boofhead Boris at his best trying to please the people rather than doing the hard thing. Why do you think so many deaths happened so early? He tried to avoid lockdown and got it horribly wrong. Blood on his hands