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Hot Topic The Rebuild, est. 2023 and/or 2025

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Especially when you include getting Martin, Duz as freebies

I view Martin as the honorary 2019 first round selection (based on age), Durham for 2021 and Caldwell (with Duursma 2nd) for 2018. If Reid can continue lessening the severity of his injuries as he seems to be his talent has shown he can be the saving grace of 2020.

In hindsight our honorary 1sts/2nds drafting history (based on age) looks like,

2018: Caldwell, Duursma
2019: Martin, Bryan
2020: Reid
2021: Durham
2022: May
2023: Caddy, Roberts
2024: Kako, Clarke
2025: #4, #5, #6, #22, #25

If our picks were taken in said succession most would look back on that and consider it a pretty solid run. Despite the busts we seemed to have lucked out on some in the midst of it, with 11 (+ a possible 5 this year, 16 in total) worthy 1sts/2nds that have the potential to form good part of our list build going forward notwithstanding the 2026/2017 drafts and free agency to come.
 

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I view Martin as the honorary 2019 first round selection (based on age), Durham for 2021 and Caldwell (with Duursma 2nd) for 2018. If Reid can continue lessening the severity of his injuries as he seems to be his talent has shown he can be the saving grace of 2020.

In hindsight our honorary 1sts/2nds drafting history (based on age) looks like,

2018: Caldwell, Duursma
2019: Martin, Bryan
2020: Reid
2021: Durham
2022: May
2023: Caddy, Roberts
2024: Kako, Clarke
2025: #4, #5, #6, #22, #25

If our picks were taken in said succession most would look back on that and consider it a pretty solid run. Despite the busts we seemed to have lucked out on some in the midst of it, with 11 (+ a possible 5 this year, 16 in total) worthy 1sts/2nds that have the potential to form good part of our list build going forward notwithstanding the 2026/2017 drafts and free agency to come.

This is a good list. Personally I think Hayes and Johnson deserve to be on it as well.

What’s unusual when you look at it like
So is how poor the midfield seems to be served vs every other position.

Now a lot of that is due to older holdover players on the list and Hobbs/Tsatsas/perkins having virtually no impact at AFL level.
 
I view Martin as the honorary 2019 first round selection (based on age), Durham for 2021 and Caldwell (with Duursma 2nd) for 2018. If Reid can continue lessening the severity of his injuries as he seems to be his talent has shown he can be the saving grace of 2020.

In hindsight our honorary 1sts/2nds drafting history (based on age) looks like,

2018: Caldwell, Duursma
2019: Martin, Bryan
2020: Reid
2021: Durham
2022: May
2023: Caddy, Roberts
2024: Kako, Clarke
2025: #4, #5, #6, #22, #25

If our picks were taken in said succession most would look back on that and consider it a pretty solid run. Despite the busts we seemed to have lucked out on some in the midst of it, with 11 (+ a possible 5 this year, 16 in total) worthy 1sts/2nds that have the potential to form good part of our list build going forward notwithstanding the 2026/2017 drafts and free agency to come.
I would also put Lewis Hayes into the list from the 2022 Draft.
 
When Gold Coast got their 3 year set of draft concession across 2019-2021 after flucking up their initial list that yielded (with other picks and trades) the following players that have set their team up:

Rowell
Anderson
Flanders
Farrar
Mac Andrew

So if we trade and draft smartly and wisely we can follow in their footspteps
 
We're supposedly following the model of Adelaide and Hawthorn in this rebuild, so here are those lists:


Players on Adelaide's list in 2025, that Adelaide drafted in the National Draft, sorted by year acquired: (A/top 10, B/top 20)

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Draft
Taylor WalkerA#75 National 2007
Brodie SmithB#14 National 2010
Matt CrouchB#23 National 2013
Wayne MileraB#11 National 2015
Darcy FogartyB#12 National 2017
Chayce JonesC+#9 National 2018
Lachlan ShollB#64 National 2018
Harry SchoenbergC+#24 National 2019
Josh WorrellC+#28 National 2019
Riley ThilthorpeC+#2 National 2020
Luke PedlarC+#11 National 2020
Brayden CookC#25 National 2020
Sam BerryC+#28 National 2020
Josh RacheleB#6 National 2021
Jake SoligoB#36 National 2021
Zac TaylorC#44 National 2021
Max MichalanneyC+#17 National 2022 (father/son)
Billy DowlingC#43 National 2022
Hugh BondC#50 National 2022
Dan CurtinC#8 National 2023
Charlie EdwardsD#21 National 2023
Oscar RyanD#27 National 2023
Sid DraperD#4 National 2024
Tyler WelshD#59 National 2024

Here's the busts going back to 2015 for context:
James Rowe, #38 National 2020
Ronin O'Connor, #42 National 2019
Lachlan Gallant, #48 National 2019
Ned McHenry, #16 National 2018
Will Hamill, #30 National 2018
Andrew McPherson, #40 National 2017
Jordan Gallucci, #15 National 2016
Myles Poholke, #44 National 2016
*Elliot Himmelberg, #51 National 2016 (UFA to Gold Coast, no compensation)
Matt Signorello, #62 National 2016
Ben Davis, #75 National 2016
*Tom Doedee, #17 National 2015 (RFA to Brisbane, Band 2 compensation)

Notably, they've rarely taken picks past pick 50, effectively only using the first 2-3 rounds of the draft.

At the same time, they also picked up the following via other means:

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Acquired
Rory LairdA#5 Rookie 2011
Reilly O'BrienB#9 Rookie 2014
Lachlan MurphyC+#38 Rookie 2017
Kieran StrachanD#7 Rookie 2018
Jordon ButtsC+#39 Rookie 2018
Ben KeaysB+Re-drafted #7 Rookie 2019
(originally drafted by Brisbane, #24 National 2015)
Mitch HingeBSigned as a Delisted Free Agent
(originally drafted by Brisbane, #20 Rookie 2016)
Nick MurrayCSSP 2020
James BorlaseC+Zone 2020
Jordan DawsonATraded in 2021 for 2022R1 (Melb)
(originally drafted by Sydney, #56 National 2015)
Luke NankervisC+#2 Pre-Season 2021
Mark KeaneBSigned via SSP 2022
(originally signed by Collingwood, International 2018)
Izak RankineB+Traded in 2022 with #46 for #5, 2023R3 (Adel) and 2023R4 (Adel)
(originally drafted by Gold Coast, #3 National 2018)
Chris BurgessC+Traded in 2023 with #14 for #23 & #26
(originally prelisted by Gold Coast in 2018)
Karl GallagherDInternational 2023
Toby MurrayD#7 Mid-Season 2023
Alex Neal-BullenBTraded in 2024 for #28
(originally drafted by Melbourne, #40 National 2014)
Isaac CummingBSigned as an Unrestricted Free Agent 2024
(originally drafted by GWS #20 National 2016)
James PeatlingBTraded in 2024 with 2025 R3 (GWS) and 2025R4 (GWS) for 2025R2 (Adel)
(originally drafted by GWS, #8 Mid-Season 2020)
Lachlan McAndrewDSigned via SSP 2024
(originally drafted by Sydney, #12 Mid-Season 2020)

If we are approximately 2-3 years behind them in terms of build, then we should be looking at free agents and trades for players in the appropriate age group for this year and the next 2-3 years, without writing ourselves completely out of the draft.

Same as above but this time Hawthorn.

Players on Hawthorn's list in 2025, that Hawthorn drafted in the National Draft, sorted by year acquired: (A/top 10, B/top 20)

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Draft
James SicilyA#56 National 2013
Blake HardwickB#44 National 2015
Harry MorrisonC+#74 National 2016
Mitch LewisB#76 National 2016
James WorpelB+#45 National 2017
Dylan MooreA#67 National 2017
Will DayB+#13 National 2019
Finn MaginnessB#29 National 2019 (father/son)
Seamus MitchellC#29 National 2020
Josh WardC+#7 National 2021
Sam ButlerC#23 National 2021
Connor MacdonaldB#26 National 2021
Jai SerongC#53 National 2021
Cam MackenzieC+#7 National 2022
Josh WeddleB#18 National 2022
Henry HustwaiteD#37 National 2022
Bailey MacdonaldD#51 National 2022
Nick WatsonC+#5 National 2023
Will McCabeD#19 National 2023 (father/son)
Bodie RyanD#46 National 2023
Calsher DearC#56 National 2023 (father/son)
Noah MrazD#35 National 2024
Cody AndersonD#64 National 2024

Here's the busts going back to 2015 for context:
Jack O'Sullivan, #46 National 2022
Connor Downie, #35 National 2020 (NGA)
*Tyler Brockman, #46 National 2020 (traded to West Coast for #44 & #63)
Josh Morris, #57 National 2019
*Jacob Koschitzke, #52 National 2018 (traded to Richmond for #49)
Matthew Walker, #63 National 2018
Jackson Ross, #71 National 2017
Kieran Lovell, #22 National 2015

Contrastingly with Adelaide, Hawthorn do take some picks deep into the draft, but they don't take that many picks in total.

And the ones they got some other way:

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Acquired
Luke BreustB+#47 Rookie 2008
Jack GunstonBTraded in 2011 with #53 and #71 for #24, #46 and #64
(originally drafted by Adelaide, #29 National 2009)
Conor NashBUnregistered 2016
Jarman ImpeyBTraded in 2017 with #67 for #33, #61 and 2018R4 (Haw)
(originally drafted by Port Adelaide, #21 National 2013)
Changkuoth JiathBUnregistered 2017
Ned ReevesC+SSP 2018
Jack ScrimshawBTraded in 2018 with 2019R4 (GC) for 2019R3 (Haw)
(originally drafted by Gold Coast, #7 National 2016)
Sam FrostC+Traded in 2019 with #42, #61 and 2020R4 (Melb) for #2020R2 (Haw) and #50
(originally drafted by GWS, #1 Rookie 2011)
Jai NewcombeA#2 Mid-Season 2020
James BlanckC#20 Mid-Season 2021
Max RamsdenD#6 Mid-Season 2021
Karl AmonBSigned as an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
(originally drafted by Port Adelaide, #68 National 2013)
Lloyd MeekC+Traded in 2022 with 2023R3 (WB) for O'Meara and 2023R4 (Haw)
(originally drafted by Fremantle, #69 National 2017)
Massimo D'AmbrosioB+Traded in 2023 for #61 and 2024R4 (Coll)
(originally drafted by Essendon, #3 Mid-Season 2021)
Mabior CholBTraded in 2023 with #62 for 2024R2 (Bris)
(originally drafted by Richmond, #30 Rookie 2015)
Jack GinnivanBTraded in 2023 with #39, 2024R2 (Coll) and 2024R4 (Coll) for #33, 2024R2 (Haw) and 2024R3 (Haw)
(originally drafted by Collingwood, #13 Rookie 2020)
Jasper ScaifeD#5 Mid-Season 2023
Josh BattleBSigned as an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2024
(originally drafted by St Kilda, #39 National 2016)
Tom BarrassBTraded in 2024 with 2025R4 (WCE) for 2025R1 (Haw), 2025R2 (Haw), and 2025R3 (Haw)
(originally drafted by West Coast, #43 National 2013)
Matt HillDUnregistered 2024
Jaime Uhr-HenryDUnregistered 2024

And then us for comparison (more interested in where we're going than where we've been, so the analysis is a little different).

Players on Hawthorn's list in 2025, that Hawthorn drafted in the National Draft, sorted by year acquired: (A/top 10, B/top 20)

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Draft
Zach MerrettA#26 National 2013
Kyle LangfordB+#17 National 2014
Jayden LaverdeC+#20 National 2014
Darcy ParishB+#5 National 2015
Mason RedmanB+#30 National 2015
Andrew McGrathB#1 National 2016
Jordan RidleyB#22 National 2016
Matt GuelfiC+#76 National 2017
Harrison JonesC+#30 National 2019
Nick BryanC#38 National 2019
Nik CoxC+#8 National 2020
Archie PerkinsB#9 National 2020
Zach ReidC#10 National 2020
Ben HobbsC+#13 National 2021
Elijah TsatasC#5 National 2022
Lewis HayesD#25 National 2022
Alwyn DaveyC#45 National 2022 (father/son)
Nate CaddyC#10 National 2023
Luamon LualD#39 National 2023
Archie RobertsD#54 National 2023
Isaac KakoD#13 National 2024 (NGA)
Kayle GerreynD#37 National 2024
Angus ClarkeD#39 National 2024
Rhys UnwinD#61 National 2024
Zak JohnsonD#70 National 2024

And the busts:
Jayden Davey, #54 National 2022 (father/son)
Alastair Lord, #46 National 2021
Garrett McDonagh, #50 National 2021
Josh Eyre, #39 National 2020 (NGA)
Cody Brand, #53 National 2020(NGA)
Ned Cahill, #56 National 2019
Lachlan Johnson, #63 National 2019
Irving Mosquito, #38 National 2018
Noah Gown, #60 National 2018
Brayden Ham, #72 National 2018
Jordan Houlahan, #49 National 2017
*Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, #66 National 2017 (Traded with #73, 2024R4 (Carl), 2024R4 (Ess) for Duursma
Josh Begley, #31 National 2016
Kobe Mutch, #42 National 2016
Dylan Clarke, #63 National 2016
*Aaron Francis, #6 National 2015 (Traded to Sydney with #42 for #37)
Alex Morgan, #29 National 2015
*Mitch Brown, #54 National 2015 (Delisted, SSP to Melbourne)
Yestin Eades, #64 National 2015
*Michael Hartley, #68 National 2015 (Delisted, Re-drafted PSD by Hawthorn)

Obviously we had reasons for doing what we did in 2015 with the potential and then actual nightmare of 2016's suspensions. Half of the rest are late picks that you wouldn't really expect to work out anyway, sometimes used on NGA picks presumably to give future NGA prospects something to aspire to.

The remainder (picks between 30 and 50) are where we need a lot of improvement, clearly, and that's probably where we should be focusing when evaluating the new list strategy.

Players acquired via other pathways:

NameGrade
(draft
guru)
Acquired
Sam DraperB#1 Rookie 2016
Dylan ShielBTraded in 2018 with 2019R2 (GWS) for #9 and 2019R1 (Ess)
(originally a GWS Underage Selection)
Peter WrightBTraded in 2020 for 2021R4 (Ess)
(originally drafted by Gold Coast, #8 National 2014)
Jye CaldwellBTraded in 2020 with #44 and #74 for #29 and 2021R2 (Ess)
(originally drafted by GWS, #11 National 2018)
Sam DurhamB+#9 Mid-Season 2020
Jye MenzieC+#18 Mid-Season 2021
Nic MartinB+SSP 2021
Will SetterfieldC+Traded in 2022 with #68 for 2023R4 (Ess)
(originally drafted by GWS, #5 National 2016)
Todd GoldsteinBSigned as an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2023
(originally drafted by North Melbourne, #37 National 2006)
Ben McKayBSigned as a Restricted Free Agent in 2023
(originally drafted by North Melbourne, #21 National 2015)
Xavier DuursmaC+Traded in 2023 for Zerk-Thatcher, #73, 2024R4 (Carl) and 2024R4 (Ess)
(originally drafted by Port Adelaide, #18 National 2018)
Vigo VisentiniD#8 Rookie 2023
Saad El-HawliD#13 Mid-Season 2023
Jade GreshamBSigned as a Restricted Free Agent in 2024
(originally drafted by St Kilda, #18 National 2015)
Jaxon PriorCSigned via SSP in 2024
(originally drafted by Brisbane, #59 National 2019)
Liam McMahonDRe-drafted #18 Mid-Season 2024
(originally drafted by Collingwood, #31 National 2020)
Archie MayD#6 Mid-Season 2024
Jayden NguyenDB-Rookie Signing 2024 (NGA)
Archer Day-WicksD#6 Rookie 2024
Tom EdwardsDSSP 2024
Lachlan BlakistonD#13 Mid-Season 2024
Oskar SmarttD#17 Mid-Season 2024

Ultimately Adelaide and Hawthorn's national draft "hits" (in the sense they're still on the list at least) look a lot like ours in terms of A graders, B graders, and others. Where we differ a bit is how much draft capital was spent to get it, with Adelaide being more similar to us (more first round picks outside the top 10 than us but fewer inside the top 10), while Hawthorn got a similar result with far fewer first round picks and only three in the top 10. Insofar as that, what we've got on the list out of the National Draft is fine, but how we got it was rather expensive (especially considering what it cost us to get those extra top 10 picks in the first place).

It's the other pathways where it looks quite different at the moment. Perhaps it's because we're 2-3 years behind them, but both Adelaide and Hawthorn are finding a lot of decent B-grade type players (best 22, not a star) for relatively cheap trades, rookie list, international signings, mid-season draft picks, etc.

None of the A-graders on any of these three lists have been drafted inside the first round of the draft.

Both Hawthorn and Adelaide have found at least one A-grade player from pathways other than the national draft.

So what have we learned?
  • B-grade players (best 22, not stars) are cheap to come by via trade for multiple later picks, or can be drafted relatively consistently in the first 50 picks of the draft. Some can also be found later if you know what you're looking for. You don't need top 10 or even first round picks to get a best 22 player.
  • A-grade players (household names outside of their own fanbase) are harder to identify as 18 year olds, and are found outside of the first round of the draft as often or sometimes more often than they are found within the top 10.
 
I guess this is the right thread. Devil's advocate question... If we finish last next year would the AFL be obliged to give us a priority pick? And should we tank assuming we get the usual tough draw.
 
I guess this is the right thread. Devil's advocate question... If we finish last next year would the AFL be obliged to give us a priority pick? And should we tank assuming we get the usual tough draw.
No we shouldn't tank. That's against the rules.

But we should focus on developing the kids on our list, exposing as much of it as we can, and if the losses pile up then so be it. Don't know if that qualifies us for a priority pick since it's not cut and dried anymore, you don't automatically qualify just by being in the bottom couple for some number of years. Would have to put together a request.
 
We should be asking for a priority pick every year, even if we were to win the GF. It's pretty obvious that being the 'good citizen' doesn't really get you anywhere in the modern afl and you need to ruthless in everything you do, including begging for handouts from on high.
I get why we've kept our heads down and been passive, but it has been a decade now since the sage and it's time to get back to playing the same way as every other club
 
No we shouldn't tank. That's against the rules.

But we should focus on developing the kids on our list, exposing as much of it as we can, and if the losses pile up then so be it. Don't know if that qualifies us for a priority pick since it's not cut and dried anymore, you don't automatically qualify just by being in the bottom couple for some number of years. Would have to put together a request.
For what it's worth, I agree. Players have to be given the freedom to play their best. However any late season heroics to get off the bottom should be "managed".
 

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The two 'sells' I would be pitching to a guy like Ridley who seems like is 50:50 on asking for a trade, are;

** Drafting & list management**
Not only have we changed the list management team, Dodoro is not there any more, Rosa is. Matt has selected good young talents who have shown at the level they can compete. Some more than others. Further more, the overall pick exchange is something that seemed out of the previous regimes depth.

Furthermore, from my understanding, the ability to roll the CBA improvements in salary cap was denied by the previous regime. Will Rosa be up with the new trends in list management?


** Strength & conditioning / high performance**
Obviously in the time of say Ridley, its been former VFL player (😂) Justin Crow and now Sean Murphy. Both have not worked as well as we'd hoped. Someone with a positive track record at multiple high performing clubs should be confidence enough that maybe, just maybe we have a chance elevating the injuries for the recurring bunch.




The sell would be hard that we likely are going backwards before moving forwards but the rewards would be something else for someone like Jordan Ridley who has been off the field more than he's been on it it feels like.
 
The two 'sells' I would be pitching to a guy like Ridley who seems like is 50:50 on asking for a trade, are;

** Drafting & list management**
Not only have we changed the list management team, Dodoro is not there any more, Rosa is. Matt has selected good young talents who have shown at the level they can compete. Some more than others. Further more, the overall pick exchange is something that seemed out of the previous regimes depth.

Furthermore, from my understanding, the ability to roll the CBA improvements in salary cap was denied by the previous regime. Will Rosa be up with the new trends in list management?


** Strength & conditioning / high performance**
Obviously in the time of say Ridley, its been former VFL player (😂) Justin Crow and now Sean Murphy. Both have not worked as well as we'd hoped. Someone with a positive track record at multiple high performing clubs should be confidence enough that maybe, just maybe we have a chance elevating the injuries for the recurring bunch.




The sell would be hard that we likely are going backwards before moving forwards but the rewards would be something else for someone like Jordan Ridley who has been off the field more than he's been on it it feels like.
I would just let him go.

He’s injured all the time, let him try something else.
 
I would just let him go.

He’s injured all the time, let him try something else.
with 4 years on his contract, id be trying to get him right over the nest 24 months. If unable to, sell him with 2 years on his contract and we'd still likely get a decent return for him.
 

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if we get him fit, he stays. If we're unable to, other clubs would use that narrative.
We’ve spent the last 8 years trying to get him right. We’ve sent him all over the world. I don’t think making him 2 years older is going to help the situation. Just cut the losses and move forward with players who actually want to be here
 
We’ve spent the last 8 years trying to get him right. We’ve sent him all over the world. I don’t think making him 2 years older is going to help the situation. Just cut the losses and move forward with players who actually want to be here
1) we have a new fitness boss, hence my post
2) when fit, is arguably one of our top 3 players on our list and one of the absolute top shelf interceptors in the game. Something you cant just replace, because
 
1) we have a new fitness boss, hence my post
2) when fit, is arguably one of our top 3 players on our list and one of the absolute top shelf interceptors in the game. Something you cant just replace, because
104 AFL games in 9 years. His issues are chronic, he’s basically made of scar tissue. Give it two more years and he may well retire. He’ll be worth nothing at the trade table even under contract.
 
I would just let him go.

He’s injured all the time, let him try something else.
I was semi hoping they'd move him on last year. One of the few guys who has value in the market but we arent really getting much out of him being on list. Feel like every year our season falls apart when he has an inevitable season ending injury, would rather rip the band aid off and figure out how to build a backline structure without him.
 
104 AFL games in 9 years. His issues are chronic, he’s basically made of scar tissue. Give it two more years and he may well retire. He’ll be worth nothing at the trade table even under contract.
as per the reasons I pointed out above, the key, when fit, is arguably one of the best players in the comp. With a new fitness boss, we need to back ourselves in.
 
as per the reasons I pointed out above, the key, when fit, is arguably one of the best players in the comp. With a new fitness boss, we need to back ourselves in.
I don’t think he’s critical to our list build. He’s one of many injury prone players and we can’t carry that level of risk, no matter how good the new medical and HP guy is.

Perhaps there’s other injury prone types I’d get rid of first, but if he wants to leave I don’t think you hold him to a contract just so you can lock him in rehab in the hope he might be reliable one day.
 

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