- May 11, 2015
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Some of you may recall from past posts of mine that I grew up in the UK, only moving to Perth 10 years ago in my late-30s. So that means: (1) I grew up watching soccer; (2) my knowledge of AFL/Freo pre 2014 is pretty limited.
Now I know many people are big EPL followers and may be aware of the following – but for others this will be new, so please bear with me.
During the 1990s and early 2000s Manchester United were the most successful team and had an enduring rivalry with Arsenal. The United manager was Sir Alex Ferguson – the most successful manager in English top league soccer history and who was notorious for the mind games he played with other managers and the media – a bit like Beverage, except he was actually good at it.
In the 2003 season, Arsenal were having a particularly successful season with United close behind in the league. Ferguson was quoted as saying: “Arsenal have a replay against Chelsea and if they win it they would face a semi-final three days before playing us in the league. But then they did say they were going to win the Treble, didn't they? It's squeaky bum time and we've got the experience now to cope."
Now some ‘family friendly’ parts of the media will have you believe that Ferguson was referring to the Arsenal manager squirming in his seat – but most accept he was suggesting the Arsenal manager and team would be shitting themselves at the prospect of a tight end to the season.
Over the years, the phrase also been recycled by commentators when a team enters the last 4-5 minutes of added on injury time only leading by a goal.
What I hadn’t realised before coming to Australia, was that in Australia existed a sport that epitomised the phrase ‘squeaky bum time...a sport that continually changes the rules to makes the coaches, players and fans bums even squeakier…and nothing epitomises this more than the kick to win it after the siren.
And now, a few paragraphs in, hopefully everyone understands the relevance of all this in a Richmond preview thread!!
Anyway – we’ll come to that in a bit.
Since starting to follow the sport and falling in love with the Dockers, there have been several instances of squeaky bum time. Moments like:
And that brings us to the Tigers. In my ten years of following Freo, we’ve had more squeaky bum time moments with the Tigers than any other team. And this got me to thinking – has this always been the case?? So I did some research.
Prior to this season, across Freo’s 29 season history, we have had more ‘less than 1 goal’ finishes against Richmond than any other team – and it’s not close. The following table summarises the number of games Freo has played against the other teams, the number of times the game has finished within a goal and the percentage of times this has resulted in a squeaky bum outcome.
And what this shows is that in a quarter of all games Richmond and Freo have played, the stadium will have been producing more methane than WA’s entire cattle farming industry.
Delving a bit deeper into the results shows that of the 10 games decided by a goal or less, one was a draw and three were by a single point. Not only that but in another FIVE games the result finished with a gap of 7-10 points.
Whilst at the same time – we’ve never had a single game against GWS, Hawthorn and Port that has finished with a goal or less between the sides; and only five times have we had a tight finish in the Derby.
So perhaps it was no surprise that last year finished in just the second draw in our history – and it gives the opportunity to present the ‘Squeaky Bum Trilogy’ in all their glory:
SQUEAKY BUM 1: Houli’s s**t Kick
Round 17 AFL - Richmond v Fremantle highlights - YouTube
SQUEAKY BUM 2: Hot s**t Mundy
Round 8 AFL - Richmond v Fremantle Highlights - YouTube
SQUEAKY BUM 3: Richmond s**t the bed
Richmond v Fremantle Highlights | Round 19, 2022 | AFL - YouTube
Anyway, enough excrement for one day – onto this week’s preview.
Last time I did a match preview, in 2021, it was the week after the Pies and Buckley came to a mutual agreement to sack the coach – so it was very hard to predict whether there would be the so-called new coach bounce (there wasn’t).
And the evidence from the last couple of weeks is that whilst they put in spirited performances the Tigers are clearly not in for one final push to round out their Dynasty – something Hardwick clearly realised and so decided to jump ship before his own legacy was tarnished (or some bullshit to do with Michael Jordan - whatever).
And as we so often see with a team on the wane, injuries can really take their toll – with Lynch, Hopper, Gibcus, Soldo and Tarrant all out for multiple weeks, and not returning in time for this week’s game.
So whilst Darcy missing will clearly impact our structure and in particular Jackson’s time up front, the Tigers present as one of ‘teams we should be beating’ if we are serious about a finals push over the second half of the season.
But…then you remember we’re coming off the bye…and historically we’ve been pretty poor when that’s the case.
And…the long range forecast is for rain next Saturday.
And…then you have to factor the stats above which show that historically we have more close games with the Tigers than any other team in the comp.
Which means I’m predicting another close one, and I’ll be packing both a poncho and an adult diaper as I board the train to Optus.
Freo by less than a goal.
Now I know many people are big EPL followers and may be aware of the following – but for others this will be new, so please bear with me.
During the 1990s and early 2000s Manchester United were the most successful team and had an enduring rivalry with Arsenal. The United manager was Sir Alex Ferguson – the most successful manager in English top league soccer history and who was notorious for the mind games he played with other managers and the media – a bit like Beverage, except he was actually good at it.
In the 2003 season, Arsenal were having a particularly successful season with United close behind in the league. Ferguson was quoted as saying: “Arsenal have a replay against Chelsea and if they win it they would face a semi-final three days before playing us in the league. But then they did say they were going to win the Treble, didn't they? It's squeaky bum time and we've got the experience now to cope."
Now some ‘family friendly’ parts of the media will have you believe that Ferguson was referring to the Arsenal manager squirming in his seat – but most accept he was suggesting the Arsenal manager and team would be shitting themselves at the prospect of a tight end to the season.
Over the years, the phrase also been recycled by commentators when a team enters the last 4-5 minutes of added on injury time only leading by a goal.
What I hadn’t realised before coming to Australia, was that in Australia existed a sport that epitomised the phrase ‘squeaky bum time...a sport that continually changes the rules to makes the coaches, players and fans bums even squeakier…and nothing epitomises this more than the kick to win it after the siren.
And now, a few paragraphs in, hopefully everyone understands the relevance of all this in a Richmond preview thread!!
Anyway – we’ll come to that in a bit.
Since starting to follow the sport and falling in love with the Dockers, there have been several instances of squeaky bum time. Moments like:
- In 2014 when Carlton’s Cameron Wood hacked kick it out straight down the throat of Lachie Neale 30 metres out, allowing him to kick the winning goal 45 seconds from the final siren (the ‘dumb s**t’ type of squeaky bum time).
- In 2017 when Shane Kersten kicked the winning goal against the Kangeroos with 30 seconds to go (the ‘s**t player’ type of squeaky bum time).
- In 2020, Jack Newnes kicking the winning goal after the siren (‘the s**t umpiring’ or ‘corrupt s**t’ type of squeaky bum time).
And that brings us to the Tigers. In my ten years of following Freo, we’ve had more squeaky bum time moments with the Tigers than any other team. And this got me to thinking – has this always been the case?? So I did some research.
Prior to this season, across Freo’s 29 season history, we have had more ‘less than 1 goal’ finishes against Richmond than any other team – and it’s not close. The following table summarises the number of games Freo has played against the other teams, the number of times the game has finished within a goal and the percentage of times this has resulted in a squeaky bum outcome.
| Played | Within a goal | Squeaky bums | |
| Adelaide | 42 | 6 | 14% |
| Brisbane | 32 | 4 | 13% |
| Carlton | 39 | 5 | 13% |
| Collingwood | 35 | 1 | 3% |
| Essendon | 39 | 4 | 10% |
| Geelong | 42 | 6 | 14% |
| Gold Coast | 13 | 1 | 8% |
| GWS | 13 | 0 | 0% |
| Hawthorn | 40 | 0 | 0% |
| Melbourne | 42 | 3 | 7% |
| North Melbourne | 34 | 5 | 15% |
| Port Adelaide | 40 | 0 | 0% |
| Richmond | 40 | 10 | 25% |
| St Kilda | 40 | 7 | 18% |
| Sydney | 39 | 4 | 10% |
| West Coast | 55 | 5 | 9% |
| Western Bulldogs | 36 | 4 | 11% |
And what this shows is that in a quarter of all games Richmond and Freo have played, the stadium will have been producing more methane than WA’s entire cattle farming industry.
Delving a bit deeper into the results shows that of the 10 games decided by a goal or less, one was a draw and three were by a single point. Not only that but in another FIVE games the result finished with a gap of 7-10 points.
Whilst at the same time – we’ve never had a single game against GWS, Hawthorn and Port that has finished with a goal or less between the sides; and only five times have we had a tight finish in the Derby.
So perhaps it was no surprise that last year finished in just the second draw in our history – and it gives the opportunity to present the ‘Squeaky Bum Trilogy’ in all their glory:
SQUEAKY BUM 1: Houli’s s**t Kick
Round 17 AFL - Richmond v Fremantle highlights - YouTube
SQUEAKY BUM 2: Hot s**t Mundy
Round 8 AFL - Richmond v Fremantle Highlights - YouTube
SQUEAKY BUM 3: Richmond s**t the bed
Richmond v Fremantle Highlights | Round 19, 2022 | AFL - YouTube
Anyway, enough excrement for one day – onto this week’s preview.
Last time I did a match preview, in 2021, it was the week after the Pies and Buckley came to a mutual agreement to sack the coach – so it was very hard to predict whether there would be the so-called new coach bounce (there wasn’t).
And the evidence from the last couple of weeks is that whilst they put in spirited performances the Tigers are clearly not in for one final push to round out their Dynasty – something Hardwick clearly realised and so decided to jump ship before his own legacy was tarnished (or some bullshit to do with Michael Jordan - whatever).
And as we so often see with a team on the wane, injuries can really take their toll – with Lynch, Hopper, Gibcus, Soldo and Tarrant all out for multiple weeks, and not returning in time for this week’s game.
So whilst Darcy missing will clearly impact our structure and in particular Jackson’s time up front, the Tigers present as one of ‘teams we should be beating’ if we are serious about a finals push over the second half of the season.
But…then you remember we’re coming off the bye…and historically we’ve been pretty poor when that’s the case.
And…the long range forecast is for rain next Saturday.
And…then you have to factor the stats above which show that historically we have more close games with the Tigers than any other team in the comp.
Which means I’m predicting another close one, and I’ll be packing both a poncho and an adult diaper as I board the train to Optus.
Freo by less than a goal.
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