Competitions The run home

[Slattery_20]

Did this last year in our darkest hour - doing it again, because that's the sort of person I am.

As it stands, today's ladder, the sides still a chance for that bottom half of the 8 are:

5 WCE 52pts, 123%
6 NM 48pts, 114%
7 Geel 48pts, 112%
8 Ess 44pts, 110%
9 Freo 44pts, 109%
10 St K 40pts, 121%
11 Carl 40pts, 105%
12 Rich 36pts, 112%

And their runs-

WCE - Port (away) WIN, Coll (home) probably LOSE, Haw (away) LOSE. Probably only 4 more points in them - gives them ~56pts
NM - Coll LOSE, Freo (home) 50/50, GWS WIN - 6 more pts - ~54pts
Geel - St K WIN, Bulldogs WIN, Sydney @ Kardinia 50/50 - 10 more pts - ~58pts
Ess - Carl 50/50, Rich 50/50, Coll LOSE - 4 more pts - ~48
Freo - Rich (home) WIN, NM (away) 50/50, Melb (home) WIN - 10 more pts - ~54pts
St K - Geel LOSE, GWS WIN, Carlton (50/50) - 6 more pts - 46 pts
Carl - Ess 50/50, GC WIN, St K (50/50) - 8 more pts - ~48 pts
Rich - Freo (away) LOSE, Ess 50/50, Port (home) WIN - 6 more pts - ~42pts

Giving:
5 Geel
6 WCE
7 NM
8 Freo
9 Ess
10 Carl

In short, not confident.
We'd better bloody hope we find some form, and fast.

 

[Kaiser Powser]

We'll finish 8th and play North in the first week of the finals.

 

[HurlsMeister18]

We won't win another game for the year. Hope the coaches start thinking about trades and delistings right now because this year is done. The writing was on the wall after the St Kilda game.

 

[Jesse Custer]

We won't win another game for the year. Hope the coaches start thinking about trades and delistings right now because this year is done. The writing was on the wall after the St Kilda game.

We might squeeze one in but i concur with this post.

 

[Pweter]

We had to get over North to give ourselves some breathing space in the event we lose to either Carlton or Richmond. Now those 2 are must wins, and it is as simple as that.

On a slightly positive note, Richmond are in their annual "build hope for next season" phase so it gives them a hypthetical extreme outside chance of a win against Freo. We just need to hope that if that completely unlikely it'll ever happen but really hope it does scenario plays out that it ends in Perth so we beat them in round 22.

And finishing above Carlton - there are worse ways to end a season.

 

[Slattery_20]

Can't see North getting 5th - unless WCE lose to Port.

Assuming they beat Freo & lose to Coll by about the same margin, they'll need to beat GWS by about 150 odd points to get close to WCE's percentage.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

People do this stuff every week.

We had 3 crunch games - Norf, Carlton and Richmond.

We win 2 of them, we're in. We don't, we're out.

Hasn't changed in weeks and still hasn't.

 

[Tas]

Can't see North getting 5th - unless WCE lose to Port.

Assuming they beat Freo & lose to Coll by about the same margin, they'll need to beat GWS by about 150 odd points to get close to WCE's percentage.

Yeah, i don't see us getting 5th unless we roll Collingwood this week and I am not holding my breath on that outcome. Then again, they did lose to Carlton so you never know...

 

[Doss]

I actually give North a small chance against Collingwood- helps that it's at Etihad.

 

[Essendonia]

Absolute best-case scenario with impossible results and margins. Still not enough to pinch 4th.

Realistically, we are down to a week-to-week basis and need at least two wins from remaining three to make finals. Best chance is to win this week and get some confidence up. A loss this week could be the end of 2012.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Just did mine.

6th Geelong 56 points 111.6% STK(W, 12), WB(W, 60), SYD(L, 12)

7th North 52 points 113% Collingwood(L, 30), Freo(L, 12), GWS(W, 60)

8th Essendon 52 points 110.2% Carlton(W, 30), Richmond(W, 12), Collingwood(L, 12)

9th Fremantle 52 points 109.6% Richmond(L, 30), North(W, 12), Melbourne(W, 60).

 

[Dwight Schrute]

We desperately need Stk to lose to Geelong this Friday.

 

[Doss]

I can't see North losing to Freo at Etihad, personally.

If you took Dwight Schrute's results but reversed the North-Freo game, we'll still finish eighth. If we make the finals, it's most likely to be eighth, and we'll most likely have to play West Coast at Subiaco- unless they fall in a heap from here and Geelong win enough and get into fifth.

Either way, WCE at Subi or Geelong at the 'G- both are tough, exceedingly so.

 

[Howard Moon]

5 weeks ago we needed to win 2 games to make the finals.... nothings changed from then to now, only that we have less games left to find those 2. Time is running out!

 

[Chambo]

5 weeks ago we needed to win 2 games to make the finals.... nothings changed from then to now, only that we have less games left to find those 2. Time is running out!

Geez the Adelaide game would have been handy!! Melbourne game hurts even more!

 

[Essendonia]

Geez the Adelaide game would have been handy!! Melbourne game hurts even more!

Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Collingwood...North was winnable...

 

[The House]

I don't understand how peope think we can win 2 and be assured of a spot...

...if we beat Carlton and Richmond and lose to the Pies we'll finish on 13 wins..presuming we neither thrash or get thrashed in any of those 3 games, our percentage will be around 109%.

Presuming Freo beat Richmond in Perth, lose to North then beat Melbourne in Perth, they too will be on 13 wins - again presuming they beat Richmond by a similar margin to their loss to North, they'll only need to beat Melbourne in Perth by about 45-50 points to pass us on percentage.

Also as a side note, on the off chance we lose to Carlton then win the next two, Carlton are also likely to only require a 12 goal win over GC to pass our percentage.

Make no mistake, unless we can boost our percentage considerably, we will probably need to win all 3.

 

[Chambo]

I don't understand how peope think we can win 2 and be assured of a spot...

...if we beat Carlton and Richmond and lose to the Pies we'll finish on 13 wins..presuming we neither thrash or get thrashed in any of those 3 games, our percentage will be around 109%.

Presuming Freo beat Richmond in Perth, lose to North then beat Melbourne in Perth, they too will be on 13 wins - again presuming they beat Richmond by a similar margin to their loss to North, they'll only need to beat Melbourne in Perth by about 45-50 points to pass us on percentage.

Also as a side note, on the off chance we lose to Carlton then win the next two, Carlton are also likely to only require a 12 goal win over GC to pass our percentage.

Make no mistake, unless we can boost our percentage considerably, we will probably need to win all 3.

Lets hope Richmond beat Freo somehow this week...if we beat Carltank, it would be a HUGE game the following week against the Tiges.

 

[Essendonia]

We will just win all three then. Problem solved.

 

[Doss]

Essentially, we need to hope that Freo go as badly as possible. So either they lose to Richmond or beat them narrowly, get thrashed by North and then hope the Dees give them half a show in the last round.

More likely scenario is that the Dees continue to troll our season and roll over to them by 170 points.

 

[Pweter]

Round 21 - we get some key players back, no more injuries, and beat Carlton by 3 goals to keep the season alive
Round 22 - we get some key players back, no more injuries, and beat Richmond by 5 goals to keep the season alive. 3 weeks of returning players and no injuries mean players starting to get match fit
Round 23 - We have a decent, fit team, no more injuries, and beat Collingwood who have half an eye on finals by 10 goals. On something of a roll now.

We then go into the finals and take on all comers, eventually winning the GF by 3 points over Hawthorn.

That's the short version of what the magic 8 ball just told me.

 

[Bennett.]

Paddys mum just burst into my office saying 'Good News' 'Good News', so at least He is back this week

 

[Chambo]

Paddys mum just burst into my office saying 'Good News' 'Good News', so at least He is back this week

Until he does his calf coming off the ground in our "day before" training session

 

[Bennett.]

haha, probably

 

[Heppell21]

Well,
we verse Carlton this week. If we win that'll remove them from the race. Also this round is Richmond against Fremantle. Hopefully the Tigers win which would all but remove Fremantle from making the eight. Next round (if I'm not wrong) North will verse Fremantle. This game (assuming there's no draw) should deliver finals action for Essendon.

It's not a very good feeling when you have to rely on other results to ensure that you make the finals but at the moment it seems to be our best hope.