Review The Stats Thread 2011

[grimlock]

Back through no demand at all, although I could glean from bedford's posts that he was itching for the return of this thread. Check out last year's effort for some comparison:

http://bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=699392&highlight=stats+thread

You can open the images in a new tab/window for better viewing.

After Round 4

at the end of 2010 for comparison

 

[barry fu]

Outstanding work Brother Grimm, you must have some pencil collection.
Interesting to note the top 5 of the disposal efficiency group, all bar 1 being a defender. And with quite possibly our top 4 defenders on ranking out for varying reasons thus far, all the more impressive!

 

[grimlock]

Okay so we're only 4 rounds in but from that small sample space we can see a few big differences:

• Our average number of disposals have dropped 13% since 2010 without a commensurate decrease in our opponents' average number of disposals (In fact they have slightly increased). We are last in disposals in the AFL, worse than Gold Coast and Richmond. Strangely our clearance work has increased from 37.7 to 45.3 a game (20% increase and clearly number 1 in the AFL)
• We are being more direct with our ball use, our Kick:Handball ratio has risen from 1.22 to 1.64 a game. Individually guys like Shaw (5.09 up from 1.96), McVeigh (3.18 up from 1.15) and Jack (2.91 up from 1.70) are kicking it a lot more. We are currently number 1 in the league in this stat.
• We don't need the stats to tell us our bad our disposals have been, but to illustrate the point our disposal efficiency is at 68.3% down from 73.2% in 2010. We
  are ranked 2nd last (ahead of the Lions) in disposal efficiency. Heath Grundy has dropped significantly from 83.5% to 75.3%
• For once we're getting smashed in the hitouts 35.5 to 50.0 per game. This is a little skewed by the fact we have played teams that have great ruck divisions, but it also serves to highlight the workload Mummy is doing and how White struggles to contribute in this area.
• We were outtackled across the year in 2010, but not this year, averaging a league leading 94.3 tackles a game. Hawthorn are the next best team averaging just 70.8 per game! Jude and Kizza are the equal leading tackles, executing 9.5 a game each.
• Probably related to the high tackling stats, the contested possession rates for both us and our opponents have risen significantly. (Roughly 35-38% in 2010 up to 48% so far this year). This flies in the face of the AFL's stated aim of having games more open with their introduction of the reduced interchange and the substitute.
• I think it's fair to say we are playing a lot more direct this year, less of the chipping around stuff, hence the big drop in uncontested possession numbers (230.4 to 158.5) and uncontested marks (80.1 to 54.5)
• Marks inside 50 continue to be a problem this year as well as last year. Of the top 5 players in this stat, only 2 are forwards and Goodes has been playing a lot of midfield lately.
• Ben McGlynn's fitness has gone off the charts. He is averaging 96.0% TOG, 2nd at the club, up from 84.7% last year. Against Geelong he topped the list with 99% TOG. Considering the position he plays, half-forward/midfield, this is an Herculean feat.

 

[grimlock]

Outstanding work Brother Grimm, you must have some pencil collection.
Interesting to note the top 5 of the disposal efficiency group, all bar 1 being a defender. And with quite possibly our top 4 defenders on ranking out for varying reasons thus far, all the more impressive!

Good observation baz, but you'll find that it's common across all clubs that backmen lead the disposal efficiency mainly due to the fact they get to kick the ball uncontested a lot, especially from kick ins. You'll find as you go further up the field, the efficiency drops, hence midfielders are next in the efficiency stakes followed finally by forwards who are often under pressure and have less options looking up the field. All the more so it makes Jesse White's efficiency very impressive!

 

[Riders of Rohan]

Absolutely love this thread Grim, outstanding effort Where do you get your stats from? I use pro-stats and there seems to be some slight differences between them.

Currently mummy is sending 1/3 of his taps to advantage with 10.5 a game from 30.25 hitouts, rated equal with Sandilands. He's having a great season so far.

 

[grimlock]

Absolutely love this thread Grim, outstanding effort Where do you get your stats from? I use pro-stats and there seems to be some slight differences between them.

Currently mummy is sending 1/3 of his taps to advantage with 10.5 a game from 30.25 hitouts, rated equal with Sandilands. He's having a great season so far.

It's mostly from the HS site, with pieces from the afl.com.au stats such as bounces and 1%

10.5 from 30.25 at 34.7% is an elite rate for hitouts to advantage. I think the norm is somewhere around 22%

 

[BarneyBent]

Grim, don't worry, there's plenty of demand. It's not the sort of thread that invites mountains of discussion, but it's a fantastic reference. I love your work.

It's also interesting to see that Mattner, Everitt, Shaw and Richards are in our top 5 most statisticall efficient users of the ball....

 

[grimlock]

Grim, don't worry, there's plenty of demand. It's not the sort of thread that invites mountains of discussion, but it's a fantastic reference. I love your work.

It's also interesting to see that Mattner, Everitt, Shaw and Richards are in our top 5 most statisticall efficient users of the ball....

Thanks BSA5.

barry fu also noted this in post 2, and as I told him this is due to the fact defenders get a lot more uncontested possessions and have more time to faff about in the backline, chipping it backwards sideways whereas forwards don't have this luxury. Unfortunately this doesn't mean we have an anomaly where we have super efficient defenders. Generally defenders across all clubs have a much better disposal efficiency than the midfielders and forwards.

 

[BarneyBent]

Thanks BSA5.

barry fu also noted this in post 2, and as I told him this is due to the fact defenders get a lot more uncontested possessions and have more time to faff about in the backline, chipping it backwards sideways whereas forwards don't have this luxury. Unfortunately this doesn't mean we have an anomaly where we have super efficient defenders. Generally defenders across all clubs have a much better disposal efficiency than the midfielders and forwards.

I was less referring to the fact they were defenders and more to the fact that Shaw, Mattner, Everitt and Richards (though Richards less so this year) are routinely criticised as having the worst disposal on the team.

 

[grimlock]

I was less referring to the fact they were defenders and more to the fact that Shaw, Mattner, Everitt and Richards (though Richards less so this year) are routinely criticised as having the worst disposal on the team.

I think that gets overplayed to a certain extent. If a defender makes a dodgy disposal and turns it over, there is a good chance that they will be punished with a goal and supporters will definitely remember that piece of play. If a forward/midfielder messes up his delivery into the forward 50, the repercussions aren't as noticeable and bad and hence doesn't stick in our minds.

A great stat would be contested possession disposal efficiency. However I don't have that on me.

EDIT: Damn I just realised this was a good opportunity to use one of my favourite words verisimilitude. But I'm too lazy to edit the post, so I'll just leave it in here.

 

[Riders of Rohan]

Considering Grundy has the least contested disposals by a fair margin, and isn't near producing the most effective disposals. Really shows just how badly his kicking has dropped this year.

 

[Swansujelly]

Nice work The hit out situation is the one that struck me..I think Seaby or Pike needs to replace White soon..vs Carlton I rekon. Mummy needs some help and White is giving nothing in the ruck contests IMO

 

[grimlock]

Someone asked about the team stats, so I've summarised them here. As you can see, Gold Coast are really really really really bad.

Clearances
[1]Sydney 45.3 [2]Collingwood 41.5 ... [17]Geelong 33.0

Frees For
[1]Port Adelaide 25.5 [2]Sydney 24.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 18.0

Frees Against
[1]Brisbane 19.3 ... [5]Sydney 20.3 ... [17]Geelong 25.3

Clangers
[1]Essendon 42.8 ... [5]Sydney 45.5 ... [17]Port Adelaide 61.5

Inside 50s
[1]Collingwood 65.0 ... [11]Sydney 51.0 ... [17]Gold Coast 41.0

Assists
[1]Melbourne 19.3 ... [9]Sydney 13.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 10.3

Disposals
[1]Geelong 433.3 ... [16]Richmond 320.5 [17]Sydney 316.8

Disposals Conceded
[1]Sydney 326.5 [2]West Coast 332.5 ... [17]Gold Coast 417.7

Effective Disposals
[1]Geelong 327.3 ... [16]Richmond 222.5 [17]Sydney 216.3

Kicks
[1]Collingwood 242.8 ... [11]Sydney 196.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 180.3

Handballs
[1]Geelong 209.7 ... [16]Richmond 130.3 [17]Sydney 120.0

Goals
[1]Collingwood 21.0 ... [10]Sydney 11.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 7.7

Behinds
[1]Fremantle 16.5 ... [6]Sydney 13.8 ... [17]Brisbane 7.3

Contested Marks
[1]Collingwood 16.8 ... [11]Sydney 11.0 ... [17]Gold Coast 6.0

Uncontested Marks
[1]Geelong 94.0 ... [16]Richmond 56.8 [17]Sydney 54.5

Tackles
[1]Sydney 94.3 [2]Hawthorn 70.8 ... [eq 16]Gold Coast, Geelong 55.7

SuperCoach
[1]Collingwood 1772.8 ... [8]Sydney 1673.5 ... [17]Gold Coast 1347.7

SuperCoach conceded
[1]Collingwood 1466.5 ... [9]Sydney 1629.3 ... [17]Gold Coast 1949.7

Contested Possessions
[1]Collingwood 156.0 ... [8]Sydney 147.3 ... [17]Gold Coast 128.7

Uncontested Possessions
[1]Geelong 284.3 ... [16]Richmond 181.3 [17]Sydney 158.5

Marks inside 50
[1]Carlton 17.3 ... [12]Sydney 9.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 4.7

Rebound 50s
[1]Western Bulldogs 41.0 ... [10]Sydney 35.5 ... [17]West Coast 28.3

1-percenters
[1]Hawthorn 60.0 ... [7]Sydney 52.8 ... [17]Melbourne 41.5

Bounces
[1]Western Bulldogs 18.0 ... [7]Sydney 9.3 ... [17]Richmond 5.0

Hitouts
[1]West Coast 55.0 ... [8]Sydney 35.5 ... [17]Port Adelaide 24.3

Disposal Efficiency
[1]Geelong 75.5% ... [16]Sydney 68.3% [17]Brisbane 67.8%

Opposition Disposal Efficiency
[1]Sydney 65.4% [2]St Kilda 69.6% ... [17]Gold Coast 76.3%

Goal rate per inside 50 (%)
[1]Collingwood 32.3% ... [11]Sydney 23.0% ... [17]Gold Coast 18.7%

Opposition Goal rate per inside 50 (%)
[1]Geelong 15.4% ... [9]Sydney 24.4% ... [17]Gold Coast 34.9%

Kick-to-handball ratio
[1]Sydney 1.64 [2]Collingwood 1.57 ... [17]Geelong 1.07

Disposal per goal
[1]Collingwood 18.9 ... [6]Sydney 27.0 ... [17]Gold Coast 43.0

Opposition Disposal per goal
[1]Geelong 47.1 ... [10]Sydney 27.2 ... [17]Gold Coast 18.7

Goalkicking accuracy (%)
[1]Collingwood 59.6% ...[13]Sydney 46.1% ... [17]Gold Coast 40.4%

Contested possession rate (%)
[1]Sydney 48.2% [2]Richmond 46.0% ... [17]Geelong 34.3%

 

[nineteen eighty]

Great thread guys!! I've lived in Sydney now for 12 years and have always had a soft spot for the Swans. Almost bought myself a Swans membership this year but didn't get around to it...looks like 2012 will be the year I extend my allegiances. Go to most Swans game and love their competitiveness.

They've been somewhat poor on the disposal front to date but my theory is that it is due to getting used to a slightly different game plan. Once they do from mid season onwards, hopefully we'll start to see some significant improvement.

Hope you don't mind me jumping in occasionally with a post...wont be negative or a smartarse (not my style).

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Fantastic effort Grim. Love it mate.

The hitout/clearance/kick-to-handball stats are interesting to me and I would love to see the deviation over the year of these three stats.

It's clear Mummy is in the 'elite' group of ruckmen (Sandilands, Cox etc). I doubt the hitouts would move too dramatically from game-to-game as they don't have as much to do with the support team around him (i.e. Jesse, Pykey, Seabs etc) as compared to say Cox (NicNat) or Ryder/Hille etc. He is just dominant & in form, really really pleased he got the chance to #1 ruck last year (all be it thanks to a nasty injury to Seabs').

As has been mentioned, we seem to be playing more 'direct' this year. I think this has a lot to do with the likes of Kennedy, Jack, Hanners & co who have impacted the stats more so than seasons gone by, thanks in part to those missing such as Kennelly, C.Bolts, 'eski etc, who seem to have traditionally played the less direct style in the past.

 

[grimlock]

I've been doing stats for the other teams too, and I hope to be able to produce the same summary for our upcoming opposition as for us. Here's Carlton's:



The things that stand out to me (keeping in mind that they had a blowout against the Gold Coast so that does inflate these stats quite a bit. The effect of the GC game will only be dampened after many games, certainly more than the 5 so far)

• The Blues a very offensively minded side, 2nd in goals, 2nd in inside 50s, 1st in marks inside 50 and 5th in assists.
• They like to possess the ball a lot, 5th in disposals, 2nd in kicks, 1st in uncontested marks and 5th in bounces. This is direct contrast to our low possession game (17th in disposals)
• The use the ball very well, in fact number 1 in the comp with 74.4% disposal efficiency. Swans are 2nd last with 68.3% but this can be explained by the high number of contested possessions that we go through each game.
• Their smaller forwards are the ones kicking the goals. Jarrad Waite is the only tall in their top 5 goalkickers thus far. Andrew Walker has emerged as a viable goalkicng forward option.
• Chris Judd leads their marks inside 50, and 5th overall in the AFL. When the top 3 are Cloke, Franklin and J.Riewoldt and they only have 3-4 more than Judd, you begin to realise what an amazing stat this is given Judd plays so much in the midfield. Whoever goes to tag Judd will have to be on his toes in the defensive 50 as well as in the middle.
• If Chris Yarran doesn't play they'll miss the drive he provides from their defence, averaging a team leading 3.8 rebound 50s per game
• They look to go through Kade Simpson a lot. He is their number 1 outside receiver (only 19.8% contested possession) and he uses it very well 80.8% efficiency which is elite for a midfielder and 4.6 inside 50s per game. This backs up my theory that is the real danger man, not to overlook the likes of Judd, Murphy and Gibbs but Simpson is underrated by many non-Carlton supporters. Kirk did a fantastic job on him in the final last year and whoever gets the job this round will have big shoes to fill. Shut down their link man Simpson and it will go a long way towards winning the game.

So as we can see, this game is going to be a clash of extremely contrasting styles. Carlton like to play a very open game, with lots of possessions, marks and goals. Sydney like to shut it down, keep it in close, with lots of tackles and pressure and generally starving the opposition of the ball. With the rain predicted, and with the smaller confines of the SCG, the conditions will most likely suit the Swans on Friday night.

 

[Dangas]

Interesting about the DE stats, we also keep our opposition to a bad efficiency, doing a great job Grim!

 

[barry fu]

Good observation baz, but you'll find that it's common across all clubs that backmen lead the disposal efficiency mainly due to the fact they get to kick the ball uncontested a lot, especially from kick ins. You'll find as you go further up the field, the efficiency drops, hence midfielders are next in the efficiency stakes followed finally by forwards who are often under pressure and have less options looking up the field. All the more so it makes Jesse White's efficiency very impressive!

Typed like a true forward Brother Grimm - give those backs no quarter!

 

[grimlock]

Some pretty horrid looking stats here:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/stats-standout-20110502-1e3i1.html

- Chris Judd finished with 18 hardball gets in his match-winning performance against the Swans - the most ever recorded by an individual player in any game.

- Sydney finished with just 26 effective short kicks against the Blues - its fewest in any game since 2004.


I'll update this thread with the latest stats sometime this week and should have the Bulldogs summary up before Friday.

 

[grimlock]

So not good stats all round, we were smashed in the important cats:

• First match this year that we have lost the clearances count, and we were whacked 34-56. Judd led the way with 15 with Murphy 8 while Jude led ours with 5.
• Starved of possession. Already last in disposals coming into this game, we had only 295 and only 191 were effective.
• Out-tackled by Carlton 88-106, but we still retain our number 1 ranking in tackles this year.
• On a brighter note, we had an amazing 94 1%s (mainly spoils and smothers). Ted had 15 while Reid shone in his new role down back with 12.
• Judd set a new season high with 25 contested possessions.

Season summary:

 

[Dangas]

Those stats are damning, especially looking at how Kizza is involved in many aspects, we need some youngsters to step up and fill his shoes

 

[Riders of Rohan]

We just need to get our hands on more of the ball, we have 3 guys averaging over 20 disposals, barely. That's just not good enough.

 

[grimlock]

We just need to get our hands on more of the ball, we have 3 guys averaging over 20 disposals, barely. That's just not good enough.

We've never been a high disposal side in recent years but we've taken it to a new low so far this year. However, the two rainy games may account for this discrepancy so we should wait for a few more games before passing any real judgment.

 

[grimlock]

As promised, the Western Bulldogs summary



Points of note:

• The Dogs look to run out of defence through Robert Murphy a lot. He is averaging a whopping 7.4 rebound 50s (1st in the AFL) and has a total of 22 bounces (2nd in the Dogs). After losing Jarrod Harbrow to the Suns, and currently missing Easton Wood and Ryan Hargrave (and for this week Brian Lake), it would seem that Murphy will be playing in defence this weekend to provide the run and carry (although they could also use him up forward with Hall and Higgins missing)
• Matthew Boyd is in career-best form and whoever plays on him will have to keep him in check. JPK has been used the last 2 times we've played them but Bird has also been handed tagging jobs in the last 3 games and might also be considered.
• Libba junior has added hardness to their midfield and is an integral part of their setup at the moment.
• Shaun Higgins will be sorely missed attack wise as he is equal 4th in goals and equal 1st in assists and 2nd in marks inside 50.
• Similar to last week, it will be a constrast of playing styles. The Dogs like to gather a lot of possessions (as well as concede them) whereas the Swans are dead last (yes even behind Gold Coast) in possessions (but also concede the 2nd least of them)

 

[grimlock]

Clearances
[1]Collingwood 43.8 [2]Sydney 43.0 ... [4]Western Bulldogs 39.2 ... [17]Port Adelaide 32.7

Frees For
[1]Port Adelaide 25.5 [2]Sydney 24.6 ... [16]Gold Coast 18.8 [17]Western Bulldogs 18.6

Frees Against
[1]Western Bulldogs 18.6 ... [6]Sydney 20.6 ... [17]Geelong 25.0

Clangers
[1]West Coast 42.6 ... [5]Sydney 45.0 ... [15]Western Bulldogs 52.2 ... [17]Port Adelaide 55.2

Inside 50s
[1]Collingwood 64.7 ... [10]Sydney 51.8 ... [12]Western Bulldogs 49.4 ... [17]Gold Coast 44.6

Assists
[1]Hawthorn 19.0 ... [9]Western Bulldogs 14.4 ... [12]Sydney 13.4 ... [17]Port Adelaide 12.2

Disposals
[1]Geelong 408.4 ... [5]Western Bulldogs 372.8 ... [16]Gold Coast 330.8 [17]Sydney 312.4

Disposals Conceded
[1]Carlton 328.8 [2]Sydney 334.0 ... [12]Western Bulldogs 375.6 ... [17]Gold Coast 408.4

Effective Disposals
[1]Geelong 302.2 ... [7]Western Bulldogs 264.0 ... [16]Gold Coast 239.4 [17]Sydney 211.2

Kicks
[1]Collingwood 224.7 ... [6]Western Bulldogs 213.8 ... [15]Sydney 195.4 ... [17]Gold Coast 175.6

Handballs
[1]Geelong 186.4 ... [7]Western Bulldogs 159.0 ... [16]Port Adelaide 138.0 [17]Sydney 117.0

Goals
[1]Collingwood 19.2 ... [8]Western Bulldogs 12.8 ... [13]Sydney 11.4 ... [17]Gold Coast 9.2

Behinds
[1]North Melbourne 16.4 ... [10]Sydney 13.2 ... [14]Western Bulldogs 10.8 ... [17]Brisbane 9.2

Contested Marks
[1]Essendon 16.5 ... [8]Western Bulldogs 12.2 ... [10]Sydney 10.6 ... [17]Gold Coast 7.2

Uncontested Marks
[1]Geelong 89.2 ... [13]Western Bulldogs 69.2 ... [16]Gold Coast 62.2 [17]Sydney 49.6

Tackles
[1]Sydney 93.0 [2]Carlton 76.0 ... [9]Western Bulldogs 66.4 ... [17]Melbourne 56.2

SuperCoach
[1]Collingwood 1808.2 ... [8]Western Bulldogs 1656.4 [9]Sydney 1653.0 ... [17]Gold Coast 1400.2

SuperCoach conceded
[1]Collingwood 1491.7 ... [8]Western Bulldogs 1643.0 [9]Sydney 1650.6 ... [17]Gold Coast 1899.2

Contested Possessions
[1]Collingwood 163.3 ... [3]Western Bulldogs 154.8 [6]Sydney 152.0 ... [17]Adelaide 132.2

Uncontested Possessions
[1]Geelong 255.2 ... [8]Western Bulldogs 213.2 ... [16]Gold Coast 195.2 [17]Sydney 148.8

Marks inside 50
[1]Carlton 14.3 ... [10]Western Bulldogs 10.8 ... [13]Sydney 9.4 ... [17]Gold Coast 5.2

Rebound 50s
[1]Western Bulldogs 42.0 ... [7]Sydney 36.6 ... [17]West Coast 27.2

1-percenters
[1]St Kilda 63.6 ... [3]Sydney 61.0 [4]Western Bulldogs 59.6 ... [17]Melbourne 42.2

Bounces
[1]Collingwood 15.8 [2]Western Bulldogs 14.6 ... [11]Sydney 7.6 ... [17]Hawthorn 5.4

Hitouts
[1]West Coast 51.0 ... [5]Sydney 41.4 ... [10]Western Bulldogs 34.8 ... [17]Port Adelaide 23.7

Disposal Efficiency
[1]Geelong 74.0% ... [15]Western Bulldogs 70.9% ... [17]Sydney 67.6%

Opposition Disposal Efficiency
[1]Sydney 64.2% [2]St Kilda 69.2% ... [11]Western Bulldogs 72.6% ... [17]Gold Coast 75.7%

Goal rate per inside 50 (%)
[1]Collingwood 29.6% ... [5]Western Bulldogs 25.9% ... [14]Sydney 22.0% ... [17]Gold Coast 20.6%

Opposition Goal rate per inside 50 (%)
[1]Geelong 17.4% [2]Western Bulldogs 19.2% ... [8]Sydney 23.5% ... [17]Gold Coast 36.3%

Kick-to-handball ratio
[1]Sydney 1.67 [2]Collingwood 1.60 ... [9]Western Bulldogs 1.34 ... [17]Gold Coast 1.13

Disposal per goal
[1]Collingwood 20.7 ... [6]Sydney 27.4 ... [12]Western Bulldogs 29.1 [17]Gold Coast 36.0

Opposition Disposal per goal
[1]Geelong 39.3 [2]Western Bulldogs 33.5 ... [11]Sydney 27.8 ... [17]Gold Coast 18.1

Goalkicking accuracy (%)
[1]Collingwood 58.1% ... [4]Western Bulldogs 54.2% ... [13]Sydney 46.3% ... [17]St Kilda 43.8%

Contested possession rate (%)
[1]Sydney 50.5% [2]Essendon 42.9% ... [5]Western Bulldogs 42.1% ... [17]Adelaide 36.6%