Review The Stats Thread 2011

[grimlock]

Another interesting stat

 

[grimlock]

Weird and wacky facts

Swans average winning margin 8. (average losing margin 21)
Swans unbeaten away from home.
Swans haven't won a game at the SCG.

4.5-29 is the best Q3 of the season so far for the Swans (Today)

 

[grimlock]

Round Highlights

• Alex Johnson - 5 rebound 50s, 10 1-percenters and 3 bounces
• Lewis Jetta - 8 inside 50s, a team high, and 2nd only to Ryan Griffen (11)
• JPK, Hanners and Goodes all had 12 contested possessions, team high for the day.
• Season high 352 disposals, but still way below the AFL average.
• 55 inside 50s for the second week in a row, and also for the second week in a row we kicked 10 goals. This means that we converted only 18.2% of our inside 50s into goals, a very poor conversion rate. In 5 of our 6 matches we've exceeded 50 inside 50s meaning we're creating a lot of chances but not converting them. We're only ahead of Gold Coast in this stat! Did someone just shout 'DYSFUNCTIONAL FORWARD LINE!'?
• A season low 40 clangers.
• A season high 25 bounces. Grundy and Shaw both had 5 while Jetta only had 1!
• Marks, and in particular uncontested marks, continue to be incredibly low. We're only averaging 49.8 uncontested marks per game, in a stat which it isn't uncommon for a team to take 100 uncontested marks.

Season Summary

• Sam Reid's usage of the ball continues to drop, he now has the 2nd worst disposal efficiency.
• Marks inside 50 has improved, but we still need more from our forwards rather than midfields resting or pushing up forward. On the other hand, we're not conceding many marks inside our own 50. Kudos to Ted, Reg, AJ and the rest of the defence.
• Goalkicking accuracy continues to languish below 50%. We must improve in this area, or we will struggle to beat the top sides. Goodes is the main culprit at the moment kicking 8.11

 

[grimlock]

Port summary to come, but a cursory glance at their stats tells me it's not a very pretty picture.

 

[Dangas]

another great analysis there Grim, yes we need to take our opportunities when they arise

 

[grimlock]

Port's summary

• As you can see, they lose in most of the stats including key ones like clearances, inside 50s, assists, clangers and marks inside 50.
• They're more efficient in converting their inside 50s into goals than us, but also allow the opposition a better conversion rate.
• Dean Brogan is going to provide good opposition for Mummy, he's clearing leading the Power in clearances (7.2 which is also 4th overall in the AFL). However, this also serves to highlight the deficiency in the rest of the Port midfield. We should dominate this statistic on Saturday night.
• Like us, they rely more on their smalls than talls for goals and goal generation. Robbie Gray, Daniel Motlop and Brett Ebert are the danger men in their forward 50.
• Matt Thomas is their main tagger, and leads their tackle count with 8.2 a game. He'll be Goodes's matchup should our co-captain line up in the midfield.
• Young midfielder Hamish Hartlett has been brilliant in the past 3 weeks, finding a lot of the ball and using it well.
• In defence, their key backmen Alipate Carlile and Troy Chaplin aren't just dour stoppers, they provide a lot of rebound from their defensive 50.

 

[grimlock]

Team rankings
Right click to view in full size

Right click to view in full size


So from those rankings, we should expect a:

1. Low Possession game
2. Many free kicks
3. A lot of rebounding from defence from both teams
4. Sydney to dominate hitouts, clearances and contested ball but Port to make better use of the ball going forward.

 

[grimlock]

• Surprisingly only 27 free kicks in total for the match, (we lost 12-15) given beforehand these sides were 2 of the highest free kicks received in the league.
• Most disposals for the season 371.
• Highest number of Inside 50s for the season 61 and this time we actually converted a lot of them.
• Lost the hitout count again (6 out of 7) but won the clearance count (6 out of 7)
• Lost the contested mark stat again, we are the worst team in the AFL in conceding contested marks to the opposition.
• 12 tackles to Jude to nudge him ahead of Kieren Jack for most average tackles (9.1 a game). Would be on track to smash Andrew Swallow's previous season average of 8.32 a game.

 

[grimlock]

I was browsing the excellent Stats subforum, when I came across this gem:

Since the start of 2010, after Collingwood and Geelong, Sydney has now won the highest percentage of their matches.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21025029&postcount=21

 

[Riders of Rohan]

Nice find

Do we know why Hannebery is still only getting around 75% TOG? His endurance is his strength so it is surprising to see him so often on the bench.

 

[grimlock]

1. He hasn't been playing particularly well
2. Whose minutes are you going to steal them from? In theory, having 21 'active' players instead of 22 should give more playing time per player, but if you compare the TOG from lat year to this year, there has been a big increase to McGlynn, a substantial one to Kennedy and to a lesser extent Jetta.

 

[grimlock]

Changes in TOG, I'm going to ignore anyone who has been subbed in or out because that skews their numbers unfairly.

S.Mumford 66.1% to 81.9% UP 15.8%
B.McGlynn 84.6% to 94.4% UP 9.8%
N.Smith 81.1% to 89.3% UP 8.2%
L.Jetta 72.3% to 80.3% UP 8.0%
J.Kennedy 72.9% to 80.6% UP 7.7%
T.Richards 89.6% to 96.3% UP 6.7%
T.Kennelly 83.7% to 87.3% UP 4.0%
R.Shaw 85.4% to 89.1% UP 3.7%
J.Bolton 82.5% to 84.4% UP 1.9%
P.Bevan 88.8% to 89.4% UP 0.6%

M.Mattner 87.4% to 87.4% NO CHANGE

D.Hannebery 75.0% to 74.6% DOWN 0.4%
A.Goodes 96.3% to 95.6% DOWN 1.0%
H.Grundy 95.8% to 94.8% DOWN 1.0%
R.O'Keefe 84.4% to 83.3% DOWN 1.1%
J.McVeigh 87.0% to 85.4% DOWN 1.6%
K.Jack 83.6% to 80.8% DOWN 2.8%
L.Roberts-Thomson 93.6% to 72.0% DOWN 23.6%

 

[SM]

I was browsing the excellent Stats subforum, when I came across this gem:

Since the start of 2010, after Collingwood and Geelong, Sydney has now won the highest percentage of their matches.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21025029&postcount=21

Doesn't surprise me really when you think about it. Coming fifth with only Geelong, Collingwood, Bulldogs and Saints above us, with Dogs and Saints now dropping off, means that we'd logically be third.

Is a nice stat though and shows how consistent we've been over a long stretch of time.

 

[grimlock]

Doesn't surprise me really when you think about it. Coming fifth with only Geelong, Collingwood, Bulldogs and Saints above us, with Dogs and Saints now dropping off, means that we'd logically be third.

Is a nice stat though and shows how consistent we've been over a long stretch of time.

Oh no doubt when I thought about it, it makes perfect sense. But when I first read it, I had to do a double take because what that statement is really saying is we're 3rd on a 2010-2011 ladder and that didn't sound right straight off the bat.

 

[SM]

Yep, it's a great stat all the same.

Call me crazy, I actually think we'll give Pies and Cats a run for their money in September, I think the heavy downpour skewed our match against the Cats, and before the rain set in we were actually winning.

When you think about it, we've lost two matches for the year, both in heavy rain against class teams. Yes, ultimately we need to be able to match them in a downpour, but it hardly means the end of the world, and I think that we'll do quite well.

Remember, we got close to the Pies in the NAB Cup, so I think we're slowly learning how to match up on them, and might be able to catch them off-guad this year.

 

[Swans120]

I won't call you crazy...maybe naively optimistic however.

Pies and Cats are still a fair way above us. I think the top 4 isn't beyond our reach but the top 2 are well and truly above the rest of the pack.

 

[barry fu]

• Surprisingly only 27 free kicks in total for the match, (we lost 12-15) given beforehand these sides were 2 of the highest free kicks received in the league.
• Most disposals for the season 371.
• Highest number of Inside 50s for the season 61 and this time we actually converted a lot of them.
• Lost the hitout count again (6 out of 7) but won the clearance count (6 out of 7)
• Lost the contested mark stat again, we are the worst team in the AFL in conceding contested marks to the opposition.
• 12 tackles to Jude to nudge him ahead of Kieren Jack for most average tackles (9.1 a game). Would be on track to smash Andrew Swallow's previous season average of 8.32 a game.

You should see my pen collection.

Grim one, in regards to the highlighted part of your stat summary. Is there a further breakdown on where/what part of the ground this is most common.

And well done, you honour BigFooty's boffins most certainly.

 

[grimlock]

You should see my pen collection.

Grim one, in regards to the highlighted part of your stat summary. Is there a further breakdown on where/what part of the ground this is most common.

And well done, you honour BigFooty's boffins most certainly.

Unfortunately baz no bingo. However we rank highly in not letting many marks inside our fifty so you can probably say not a lot of them occur in our defensive fifty

 

[barry fu]

Unfortunately baz no bingo. However we rank highly in not letting many marks inside our fifty so you can probably say not a lot of them occur in our defensive fifty

Ok, thanks Brother Grimm, and with the charge of The LRT Horse brigade gathering even more momentum. This can only improve. Onwards and upwards!

 

[grimlock]

Hawks summary

• The Hawks love to have the ball, their possession numbers dwarf our possession numbers. They are led by Sam Mitchell whose 31.3 touches a game is 3rd overall in the AFL
• Luke Hodge is helping out their undermanned defence, 2nd in rebound 50s
• Both Jarryd Roughead and Lance Franklin are in very good form. Buddy is 1st in the AFL in marks inside 50, and Roughy is kicking goals at a very accurate 75% rate.
• Josh Gibson is an important key in their defence, leading the team in 1%s (which are mainly spoils). With Stephen Gilham joining Ben Stratton on the sidelines, he'll have to play well on one of our big forwards.

 

[grimlock]

Team rankings



Points of note:

• The Hawks like to keep possession (high disposal efficiency, low contested possession rate), chip it around (high uncontested marks). This is in direct contrast to the Swans who go very direct (high Kick-to-handball ratio) but also love a lot of tight contests (most hitout contests in the AFL as well as highest contested possession rate). It will be incredibly intriguing to see which side can impose their favoured game style upon the other.
• The Swans are very good at the defensive side of the game, keeping the opposing side's numbers down in key areas like inside 50s, marks inside 50, conversion to a goal once inside 50 and opposition disposal efficiency. However, the undermanned but underrated Hawks defence don't trail the Swans much in this area either. So we could be in for a very low scoring game on Sunday.
• For all our directness, we're still pretty crap going forward. The fisrt problem is converting our inside 50s into goals. We're 15th in the AFL in this stat and not much higher than the Gold Coast. The second problem is our goalkicking accuracy which is below 50%. Adam Goodes is still a major culprit with a return of 10.13 much worse than his barely above 50% rate last year. If we can get some semblance of a working forward line, our direct play may start producing more fruitful results in the coming rounds.

 

[grimlock]

Round 9 review

• Stats say we competed well in inside 50s (49 - 51) and assists (36 -36) but we were much worse in converting to goal (16.3% - 29.4%)
• Hawks managed to imposed their uncontested style upon us, only 37.5% of their possessions were uncontested, the lowest of all our opponents this season.
• Lost the hitouts again 36-45
• Equal lowest number of marks inside 50, 6. 2 of them went to Shaw!
• Jude continues to lead the AFL in tackles, another 8 bringing his average slightly down to 9.0 a game.

 

[grimlock]

Round 10 preview

• Number one danger man = Andrew Swallow. 1st in disposals, handballs, contested possessions, tackles, clearances, 2nd in frees for and 4th in inside 50s. Shut him down and we go a long way towards victory. Another midfielder that tends to get underrated is Leigh Adams, he has put up a nice set of numbers so far.
• Aaron Edwards has kicked 14 goals straight. On first sight this is a terrific stat, but it could also mean that he doesn't offer much when the ball hits the deck. Edwards is very much a short forward who plays tall. In contrast, Lindsay Thomas has an atrocious 10 goals 21 behinds for the year (which could mean he's due for a big one )
• Todd Goldstein is 2nd in clearances for AFL ruckmen (behind Dean Brogan). Without Mummy, we may suffer in this area of the game.
• North struggle to contain opponents defensively. Opposition disposal efficiency, opposition goal rate per inside 50 and opposition disposals per goal are all near the bottom end.

 

[grimlock]

Team rankings


Things of note:

• Score (%) - Just slightly above Gold Coast's (both round to 21.9%. North aren't much better at 22.9%). Yes, our forward line is officially as bad as the Suns.
• GK Accuracy (%) - Again, only team we are beating is Gold Coast's. It didn't help that we are terrible going forward, but to butcher the limited chances we are generating compounds the issue.
• Generally you can see North are below average (i.e. below 8th ranking) in most of the stats. In particular, they tend to be poor defensively.

 

[Dangas]

again your insight is always appreciated Grim