Review The Stats Thread 2011

[Xarb]

Yeah thanks Grim, I've been looking for somewhere that gives some info on who to look out for on the opposition and this is perfect.

Plus it's great to see all the stats too.

 

[grimlock]

Yeah thanks Grim, I've been looking for somewhere that gives some info on who to look out for on the opposition and this is perfect.

Plus it's great to see all the stats too.

Cheers. If there's any stats you would like, just ask and I'll see what I can do.

 

[grimlock]

Soph brought up an interesting point last night, of our senior list only Daniel Currie and Jed Lamb are the only ones who are yet to debut (touch wood LJ). Also, as an aside, Currie is the only surviving member of the top 50 picks of his draft who still hasn't debuted (The other non-surviving one is DOK).

 

[BIGBEZ]

not good that we are last at converting inside 50's into goals hopefully LJ will change this.

 

[barry fu]

not good that we are last at converting inside 50's into goals hopefully LJ will change this.

We really do need a rover BEZ - is Lamb likely, perhaps? We have to work so hard for every goal.

Brother Grimm, very interesting to see us ranked 9th in the highly coveted category of goal/disposal. Which then becomes more of a issue after a bottom of the barrel 17th positioning for possessions overall. To much O/T per goal.
Oo I love cardigans.

 

[BIGBEZ]

We really do need a rover BEZ - is Lamb likely, perhaps? We have to work so hard for every goal.

we need Fev

 

[grimlock]

• Craig Bird - 24 disposals, 9 tackles, 5 inside 50s, 2 assists, 93% TOG. Best game of his career so far. Comparable to Andrew Swallow's 28 disposals, 9 tackles, 6 inside 50s and 2 assists
• 3 contested marks to Heath Grundy
• Smashed in the hitouts (23-63) and for once in the clearances (29-41), only the 2nd time this season we have lost this stat.
• Lowest contested possession rate of the year (37.6%)
• I don't know what he's doing, but Ted Richards has now the highest free kick differential at the club (FF - FA). This is amazing for a defender.
• We have a percentage of exactly 100%. Also the same number of goals and behinds scored and conceded. It's nice to see our opponents are as profligate as us.

 

[Dangas]

Also it is clear our disposal efficiency is bad, ranked 16th, our opponents Brisbane are 17th

 

[barry fu]

we need Fev

Lol, sorry - just noticed this BEZ.

I said a rover - not a fV<king punter.

 

[barry fu]

Also it is clear our disposal efficiency is bad, ranked 16th, our opponents Brisbane are 17th

Thats a worry for Mrs Fu(just in case she is snooping about). It will make my favourite beer wench job harder with all these dud kicks knocking about.

 

[grimlock]

Brisbane summary

• Jed Adcock is having one of his best seasons. He played in the backline last week but with our weakened forward line he may end up back in the midfield.
• Jack Redden is equal with Jude Bolton in the tackle count, and will relish the close-in contests that we favour.
• Just like our own Pyke, Pearce Hanley is starting to be recognised as genuinely good AFL player, rather than from where he came from. He is solid defensively (3rd in spoils) but also is a good kick of the ball and hence the Lions look to send the ball his way in defence. We'll have to clamp down on his run and carry from defence, perhaps a job for Jude if/when he plays forward.
• Look for Todd Banfield to play a defensive forward role on either Malceski or Kennelly. His closing speed and tackling prowess will prove problematic if our defenders are languid in disposing of the ball.
• Despite playing 6 less games than his teammates, Jonathan Brown is equal 2nd in the marks inside 50 category. Playing deeper in Adelaide last week, he might cause Grundy a few problems if they get into a wrestle.
• The Lions midfield will be missing Tom Rockliff who has established himself as the team's no 2 inside midfielder, behind Simon Black.

 

[grimlock]

Team Comparisons

• Brisbane struggle in the key offensive stats: Clearance differential (-8.6 vs Sydney's +2.0) and Inside 50 differential (-8.9 vs Sydney's +2.2)
• We've noted how poor our disposal efficiency (%) has been throughout the year. We finally come up against the one side who is worse at this regard (68.1% vs Swans' 69.6%). The Lions also play quite a high contested possession game (6th at 41.7% vs Swans' 1st at 46.2%) but have conceded the most contested possessions in the AFL.
• We continue to struggle to convert our chances to goals. Brisbane aren't much better (14th at 24.0% vs Swans' 16th at 21.8%) but they're much better at goalkicking accuracy (52.7% vs Swans' 47.0%)
• The Lions win a lot of hitouts (4th in the AFL behind the Cox/Sandilands-led juggernauts) through Leuenberger and without Mumford, they should dominate the hitouts on Saturday night.

 

[grimlock]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/115206/default.aspx

This article also notes our drop in uncontested possessions from last year. Our game plan has definitely changed.

 

[grimlock]

As you would expect from such a dominant performance, some highs:

• Most possessions for the year (408)
• 2nd highest in inside 50s and goals (both behind the Port game)
• Most contested marks for the year (18)
• Most uncontested marks for the year (110)

 

[grimlock]

Richmond summary

• The danger man is definitely Trent Cotchin. 3rd in disposals, 1st in contested possessions, 1st in clearances (5th in the AFL), 2nd in inside 50s and 4th in assists.
• Daniel Jackson is their primary tagger (6.6 tackles per game) but also can hurt on the offensive end being 1st in inside 50s with 5.0 per game and 2nd in clearances with 5.3 per game.
• Their forwards are good kicks for goal, led by Jack Riewoldt (36.9), Jake King (19.3) and Robin Nahas (10.3). In addition, despite being known for his flying high antics, Riewoldt is also a creator for Richmond 1st at the club in assists and 5th overall in the AFL (11 for the year)
• Defender Dylan Grimes leads the AFL in 1-percenters (11.7 per game) but will be out for the rest of the year
• New recruits Bachar Houli and Shaun Grigg both play a very uncontested style and must not be allowed to roam freely.
• Resting ruckman Tyrone Vickery has done very well as a tall forward, 3rd at the Tigers in goals (16)

 

[grimlock]

Summary



What Richmond are good at:

• Efficient Attack - 4th in goals (14.8), 4th in goalkicking accuracy (56.5%), 2nd in scores per inside 50 (28.4%) and 3rd in disposal per goal (24.2) despite being only 9th in inside 50s (52.2) and 10th in disposals (358.3). THEY MAKE THE MOST OUR OF THEIR CHANCES. The Swans on the other hand average 1 more inside 50 per game (53.2) but our profligacy in being 14th in goalkicking accuracy (48.0%), 16th in scores per inside 50 (22.6%) and 11th in disposal per goal (28.0) is telling as we are only 12th in goals (12.0). Amazingly for such a high scoring side, the Tigers are in the bottom half in marks inside 50 (9.3) which means they generate a lot of their goals on the run on from a crumb.
• Their skills - 3rd in disposal efficiency (73.7%) AND they limit the efficiency of the other team (2nd with 69.2%). The Swans are 16th in disposal efficiency (70.0%) and 1st in efficiency of their opponent (66.9%)

What Richmond are bad at:

• Defence - They concede 57.8 inside 50s to the opposition per game. The Swans only concede 49.0. The Tigers have a inside 50 differential of -5.6 while the Swans have a inside 50 differential of +4.2. No matter how efficient the Tigers have been, it is always difficult to win games when you let your opponent have more chances. In addition, they are only above the Suns in opposition disposal per goal with 21.6. This stat tells us that the sides who play Richmond don't have to waste many possessions to finally convert to a goal. The Swans are much meaner in this stat, 3rd with 31.3.
• Clearances - They concede the most clearances in the comp, hence it is no surprise that they have a bad clearance differential of -7.1 (15th). The Swans have a differential of +3.6 (4th). Sydney should seek to force the game into a clearance competition, they beat up on Brisbane in this regard last week and I think the Tigers midfield are ripe for the picking here too.

 

[grimlock]

Explained more eloquently in this article:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...t-swans-to-limit/story-e6frexwr-1226072696454

 

[barry fu]

Great gathering Grim one.
Grimme, as for a shepherds stat, do they fall under the 1% catergory? I would be quite interested to know, as I think Mummy The Swanheart is our best shepherd server, and Seaby has no idea of.
Also great to see our young Swan, Bird break into the Top 5 for tackles, handballs, clearances and assists. All close contact key indicators.

 

[grimlock]

Yes shepherds are counted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_percenter_(Australian_rules_football)

 

[barry fu]

Shame that, I would like to see a shep stat.

 

[SM]

You want me to do what with a sheep?

 

[Jack2Johnston]

Some fairly interesting stats, I believe the disposal efficiency one is fairly pointless really, as it is just a reflection of our low contested possession count, and kicking to contests means often your disposal isn't going to be great.

So I would be expecting us to be amongst the lowest DE%, (which we are), doesn't necessarily point to our skills being any poorer than another team.

And the opposite is also true, any team that has high uncontested possessions is going to have a high DE%, which can best be seen by Hawthorn #1 on both, and can also be seen in Richmond's stats.

 

[grimlock]

• Kieren Jack had 13 possessions in only 30% TOG.
• Sam Reid had 3 marks, all contested. He's now 2nd behind Goodes in contested marks at the club.
• Rhyce Shaw had a game high 7 inside 50s.
• Jude Bolton had 11 tackles, to bring him back to top of the tackle stat in the comp. Kirky would be so proud.
• Mark Seaby had 8 clearances! However, we lost the hitout count for the 9th time this year. (1 game was even)
• We had our highest number of clearances for the year (52)
• After relatively high numbers of possessions in the past 2 games, we reverted back to a low tally (312). Our uncontested possessions dropped from 200+ to just 149.

 

[grimlock]

Carlton summary

• A lot has been said about Chris Judd in the preview thread (and rightly so - 3rd in clearances, 4th in contested touches, equal 7th in assists, 10th in disposals, equal 11th in tackles) but Marc Murphy isn't far behind. (3rd in disposals, 5th in frees for, 9th in contested touches, equal 9th in inside 50s, 15th in clearances)
• Chris Yarran is 1st in the AFL in running bounces, despite missing 1 game.
• Carlton didn't have Yarran, David Ellard and Matt Kreuzer in Round 6, and they are now all important cogs in their side. Ellard has added toughness to their midfield (3rd in average contested possessions and 1st in average tackles) while Kreuzer will be more of a threat up forward than Setanta O'hAilpin or Shaun Hampson

 

[grimlock]

Summary

This is really scary reading...



In most of these summaries, I have noted the discrepancies between the Swans and their upcoming opponents, mostly through the amount of contested ball we play and the lesser amounts they play. However, Carlton show that they compete just as well in similar areas, specifically:

• Clearances: Carlton 3rd 41.4 vs. Sydney 4th 41.2
• Clearance Differential: Carlton 2nd +9.2 vs. Sydney 4th +3.6
• Contested Possession: Carlton 3rd 154.2 vs. Sydney 5th 150.3
• Inside 50 Differential: Carlton 2nd +13.0 vs. Sydney 7th +3.7
• Tackles: Carlton 2nd 74.0 vs. Sydney 1st 83.0
• Hitouts: Carlton 5th 42.6 vs. Sydney 9th 37.5

Fortunately they are not much better than us in converting into goals

• GK Accuracy: Carlton 14th 49.1% vs. Sydney 16th 46.1%
• Inside 50/Goal: Carlton 11th 25.1% vs. Sydney 16th 22.2%
• Disposal/Goal: Carlton 6th 27.0 vs. Sydney 10th 28.4

although this is alleviated by the fact that they generate more changes (inside 50s) than the Swans. They are also very good in finding targets inside 50 - Waite (8th), Garlett (14th) and Walker (17th) all contribute to Carlton taking the most marks inside 50 (average) of all 17 teams.

Carlton are very high in both contested AND uncontested possessions (both 3rd in the AFL), so the Swans must do all they can to starve them of the ball. Carlton are very good in limiting the opposition getting the ball as well, but they do it in a different manner. The Swans play direct and force a lot of ballups and hence less time is available for uncontested play, whereas the Blues just simply win a lot more of the ball and dominate their opposition in that manner.