Scarlett Fever
Senior List
It is obvious from the value placed on draft picks in this years trade period that clubs think this is a weak draft. This is further emphasised by Big Footy's draft enthusiasts (who I very much appreciate) who go and watch the games and post their opinions.
However, I will bet the family pets that this years draft and next years supposed super draft in hindsight will show only a marginal difference in quality. Remember last year when we were hearing about the talents of Hurn, Dowler, Drum and Clarke but they weren't available until the following year. Similarly many of next years stars will get further scrutinised and their deficiencies will slowly become a reality. The more recruiters and enthusiasts see of the youngsters the more they seem to highlight the negatives of the potential recruit. At 16 they are only passing a glancing eye but when recruiters get seriously thinking about next years youngsters joining their club they will find many more faults.
On the flip side it seems apparent that this years draft doesn't have any stand out bonafide superstars. Thats disappointing for Blues, Pies and Hawks fans but a bonus for the rest of us who wouldn't of got near the picks to get those players anyway. Even the super draft of 01 was considered just that largely on the back of Hodge, Ball and Judd. The next 4 picks have produced ordinairy players (when considering the pick used to get them) in Polak, Clarke, Sampi and Hale. There are many gems further down the list but if these guys were the cream it too would of been considered a weak draft. 99 was a strong draft also but had the names Roach, Cupido, Beetham and Fiora amongst the top 10.
If you go through each draft or the best 20, 21, 22 etc year olds in the comp you will see that there are quality players at all ages and from all drafts. This weak draft would have to defy history in a big way not to produce some top footballers. Conversely super drafts of the past have all carried there share of duds.
Looking at previous weaker drafts such as 2000 then you can see it was quite weak at the top of the order after Riewoldt, Kosi and Didak (who I still rate). However later down the list it has some good picks including Coughlan and our very own Josh Hunt in the 40s.
If there is one area the Cats have been trend setters in the draft it has been our canniness in getting more picks in strong drafts and using less in weaker drafts. Everyone is now trying to do it and to stay ahead of the pack a new strategy is required. As a result I suspect some clubs have traded this years picks too cheaply and conversely you may be able to grab some top quality players through trading next year (think a certain premiership captain traded before the 01 superdraft) rather than been exposed to risks that are very much still there in a supposed strong draft.
I suspect that this draft is more a complex draft rather than a weak draft. Some are saying it has some depth but the Blues, Pies and Hawks may have set themselves up for years of Richmond/Fiora esque torment and abuse from their fans. Thats not our problem and I think the situation is now tailor made for Stephen Wells to get in their and do what he does best. That is recruit quality players from mid range draft picks. I am hoping with Chambers gone that we will now use 4 draft picks and we will see some more players like Ling, Chapman, Enright, Hunt, Kelly and johnson on our list next year. The weak draft fallacy will be no excuse in my eyes.
However, I will bet the family pets that this years draft and next years supposed super draft in hindsight will show only a marginal difference in quality. Remember last year when we were hearing about the talents of Hurn, Dowler, Drum and Clarke but they weren't available until the following year. Similarly many of next years stars will get further scrutinised and their deficiencies will slowly become a reality. The more recruiters and enthusiasts see of the youngsters the more they seem to highlight the negatives of the potential recruit. At 16 they are only passing a glancing eye but when recruiters get seriously thinking about next years youngsters joining their club they will find many more faults.
On the flip side it seems apparent that this years draft doesn't have any stand out bonafide superstars. Thats disappointing for Blues, Pies and Hawks fans but a bonus for the rest of us who wouldn't of got near the picks to get those players anyway. Even the super draft of 01 was considered just that largely on the back of Hodge, Ball and Judd. The next 4 picks have produced ordinairy players (when considering the pick used to get them) in Polak, Clarke, Sampi and Hale. There are many gems further down the list but if these guys were the cream it too would of been considered a weak draft. 99 was a strong draft also but had the names Roach, Cupido, Beetham and Fiora amongst the top 10.
If you go through each draft or the best 20, 21, 22 etc year olds in the comp you will see that there are quality players at all ages and from all drafts. This weak draft would have to defy history in a big way not to produce some top footballers. Conversely super drafts of the past have all carried there share of duds.
Looking at previous weaker drafts such as 2000 then you can see it was quite weak at the top of the order after Riewoldt, Kosi and Didak (who I still rate). However later down the list it has some good picks including Coughlan and our very own Josh Hunt in the 40s.
If there is one area the Cats have been trend setters in the draft it has been our canniness in getting more picks in strong drafts and using less in weaker drafts. Everyone is now trying to do it and to stay ahead of the pack a new strategy is required. As a result I suspect some clubs have traded this years picks too cheaply and conversely you may be able to grab some top quality players through trading next year (think a certain premiership captain traded before the 01 superdraft) rather than been exposed to risks that are very much still there in a supposed strong draft.
I suspect that this draft is more a complex draft rather than a weak draft. Some are saying it has some depth but the Blues, Pies and Hawks may have set themselves up for years of Richmond/Fiora esque torment and abuse from their fans. Thats not our problem and I think the situation is now tailor made for Stephen Wells to get in their and do what he does best. That is recruit quality players from mid range draft picks. I am hoping with Chambers gone that we will now use 4 draft picks and we will see some more players like Ling, Chapman, Enright, Hunt, Kelly and johnson on our list next year. The weak draft fallacy will be no excuse in my eyes.
