Current The Western Australian Current Trials Thread

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Does anyone think CSK has any similarities to the Butcher of Plainfield – Ed Gein? He liked to hang out in graveyards. Ok Gein was more of a bodysnatcher but at least he didn't eat them like Dahmer. Maybe there is something in Ed Gein's trophies?
 
BFew said:
After having just read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Gein
my answer is an emphatic No.
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Thanks for that. It confirms my thinking. I only asked the question because of the KK connection which was presented by a third party. Gein was another sick puppy. So was Gacy. As BRE had the clown pic on his FB it doesn't necessarily translate into someone causing havoc with a big red nose. What I do get from the clown pic is confidence. It is symbolic of his facade like Gacy but limited to that. There was also a clown craze at the time which needs to be contextualised. A kid in Northam was charged chasing kids down the street dressed as a clown. YT clips were going viral. What I take from his FB clown pic is a high level of confidence. He thought he was untouchable. IMO he had no idea he was under surveillance in the weeks leading up to his arrest. Why would he? He'd gotten away with murder and rape over 28 years. What is hard to believe however is that he had no rap sheet. This puts him in the 10% of SK that have been caught without priors according to an FBI report that I can post here if someone hasn't seen it. What can we put that down to? I think he had the rub of the green...


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pauldking said:
Thanks for that. It confirms my thinking. I only asked the question because of the KK connection which was presented by a third party. Gein was another sick puppy. So was Gacy. As BRE had the clown pic on his FB it doesn't necessarily translate into someone causing havoc with a big red nose. What I do get from the clown pic is confidence. It is symbolic of his facade like Gacy but limited to that. There was also a clown craze at the time which needs to be contextualised. A kid in Northam was charged chasing kids down the street dressed as a clown. YT clips were going viral. What I take from his FB clown pic is a high level of confidence. He thought he was untouchable. IMO he had no idea he was under surveillance in the weeks leading up to his arrest. Why would he? He'd gotten away with murder and rape over 28 years. What is hard to believe however is that he had no rap sheet. This puts him in the 10% of SK that have been caught without priors according to an FBI report that I can post here if someone hasn't seen it. What can we put that down to? I think he had the rub of the green...


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Click to expand...
Thanks, and yes I would like a link to the FBI report.
 
Here is the quote from the FBI study (actually 12% but I rounded down to 10% for argument's sake):

A large percentage of offenders had arrest records; however, 78.3% had a record at the time of their first murder versus 88.0% that had a record at the time of last murder.The majority of the arrests were for misdemeanors, and the specific offenses that offenders were arrested for were spread across 20 different offenses or classes of offenses.At the time of arrest, the leading categories of offenses:

Assault/battery offenses (12.9%)

Theft/larceny offenses (10.6%)

Sex related offenses (9.0%)

Burglary (8.0%)

Drug offenses (6.2%)

A total of 21.7% of offenders did not have any arrest record at the time they committed their first murder.

Page 14, Serial Murders; Pathways to Investigations

DNA evidence points to earlier crimes in the late '80's. I suspect there was an element of luck. There have been no MSM reports of earlier convictions so that leaves us to consider some options:

1. There are no earlier convictions therefore BRE (if found guilty) falls into the 12% bracket
2. There are earlier minor conviction/s by BRE not reported by MSM and BRE (if found guilty) falls into the 78.3%-88.0% bracket

IMO he had the rub of the green and is likely to fall into the 12% that were arrested with no previous arrests.
 
BFew said:
If BRE is guilty, and thought he was so untouchable, why would he have appeared to be so camera shy (in front of the camera)?
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If BRE is found guilty and thought he was so untouchable why was he camera shy? IMHO he was a stalker and not an attention seeker. I don't think he is MM. I don't think he is a social butterfly. I don't think he wanted his photograph taken for other reasons as well. Once his face was released by MSM how many calls to Crimestoppers ensued the following 24 hours?
 
BFew said:
Might we might only find out if BRE thought he was under surveillance at an early stage if he pleads not guilty, defeats all or all of the most serious of charges, and elects to and is legally allowed to publicly reveal what he thinks went on during the period of surveillance?
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This is an interesting point BFew. I love the idea of 'Soprano-like' scenarios as carried out by WAPOL on Daniel Morcombe's case to catch Cowan. Almost as good reading as when he copped a dose of boiling water from another prisoner "This is for Daniel" in 2016 followed by a bucket-beating. I'm interested to find out what lengths WAPOL went to between DNA match to arrest. Was it days, weeks or months?
 
pauldking said:
Thanks for that. It confirms my thinking. I only asked the question because of the KK connection which was presented by a third party. Gein was another sick puppy. So was Gacy. As BRE had the clown pic on his FB it doesn't necessarily translate into someone causing havoc with a big red nose. What I do get from the clown pic is confidence. It is symbolic of his facade like Gacy but limited to that. There was also a clown craze at the time which needs to be contextualised. A kid in Northam was charged chasing kids down the street dressed as a clown. YT clips were going viral. What I take from his FB clown pic is a high level of confidence. He thought he was untouchable. IMO he had no idea he was under surveillance in the weeks leading up to his arrest. Why would he? He'd gotten away with murder and rape over 28 years. What is hard to believe however is that he had no rap sheet. This puts him in the 10% of SK that have been caught without priors according to an FBI report that I can post here if someone hasn't seen it. What can we put that down to? I think he had the rub of the green...


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Click to expand...

I watched the docu drama on Gacy last night, he'd done time in another state. The surveillance on him also prior to his arrest was designed to put pressure on, up real close and Gacy started to unravel as the pump in his crawlspace broke and the house started to smell. He couldn't get the bodies out. Here's a link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy

He also invited a young man back to his house while he was under surveillance, he told the kid the cops out the front were his security detail as he'd worked for the police on high profile cases. He pulled his handcuffs trick on the boy and raped him, all the while the cops were right outside his house sitting in their car. You're right, Gacy was full of confidence and thought he could outsmart everybody.

EDIT: The mini series is called To Catch A Killer if you're interested, on youtube. It was enlightening to see how he 'worked' his community and presented as a do gooding citizen.
 
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shellyg said:
I watched the mini series on Gacy last night, he'd done time in another state. The surveillance on him also prior to his arrest was designed to put pressure on, up real close and Gacy started to unravel as the pump in his crawlspace broke and the house started to smell. He couldn't get the bodies out. Here's a link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy

He also invited a young man back to his house while he was under surveillance, he told the kid the cops out the front were his security detail as he'd worked for the police on high profile cases. He pulled his handcuffs trick on the boy and raped him, all the while the cops were right outside his house sitting in their car. You're right, Gacy was full of confidence and thought he could outsmart everybody.
Click to expand...

Interesting read thanks Shelley. I've driven down Acton St. I couldn't help myself. I even drove by the Lone Rangers Shooting Club. Dorrough's last shot. What struck me about Acton Street is how quiet the street is. IMO any vehicles parked down that street would stick out like dog's balls. What are your theories on WAPOL surveillance in the lead up to the arrest?


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pauldking said:
Interesting read thanks Shelley. I've driven down Acton St. I couldn't help myself. I even drove by the Lone Rangers Shooting Club. Dorrough's last shot. What struck me about Acton Street is how quiet the street is. IMO any vehicles parked down that street would stick out like dog's balls. What are your theories on WAPOL surveillance in the lead up to the arrest?


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Click to expand...

Surveillance isn't as obvious as it used to be if they want to keep it on the lowdown, equipment is micro, high tech with listening devices and cams not much bigger than pin heads. Even though the media is saying BRE only recently came to police attention I think it's POSSIBLE they've had eyes on him since the end of 2015 as they were announcing breakthroughs in the case (which would have made him very nervous) and it's also possible they tipped him into it closer to the arrest to shake him up, see what falls out.
 
Molly Dooker said:
Thank you for that. I'll just need to get onto my computer to read it properly.
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An interesting read. It also touches on motive, sites and methodologies. All of which can be applied to SK cases even though the data set is from US.


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pauldking said:
I'm interested to find out what lengths WAPOL went to between DNA match to arrest. Was it days, weeks or months?
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RSBM

IMO WAPOL only got the DNA match after arrest. I think they got a partial match on their database that indicated a familial match (which from what I have read will look different to a partial match with a non related person). From there they looked at male family members within the appropriate age range (some wouldn't have been born at the time of the offences that BRE is now charged with) and with the correct percentage of matching (the percentage of DNA match will depend upon the closeness of the relationship - a brother, father or uncle, cousin). This would have narrowed down the possibilities considerably. Then further investigate that person/persons to determine other factors like means and opportunity. Take the prime suspect in for questioning, test DNA, match DNA to crime scenes, charge with offences.

http://www.denverda.org/DNA_Documents/Familial_DNA/CDAA familial search article.pdf
 
shellyg said:
Surveillance isn't as obvious as it used to be if they want to keep it on the lowdown, equipment is micro, high tech with listening devices and cams not much bigger than pin heads. Even though the media is saying BRE only recently came to police attention I think it's POSSIBLE they've had eyes on him since the end of 2015 as they were announcing breakthroughs in the case (which would have made him very nervous) and it's also possible they tipped him into it closer to the arrest to shake him up, see what falls out.
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A strategy often used ( especially when no body is available) is to imply breakthroughs. This can sometimes force suspects to return to the scene of the crime or body dump to see if anything has changed.
 
GreyCrow said:
A strategy often used ( especially when no body is available) is to imply breakthroughs. This can sometimes force suspects to return to the scene of the crime or body dump to see if anything has changed.
Click to expand...

It's risky watching someone like that for so long, if anything happened on their watch and he slipped them there would be hell to pay but I read a couple of articles from late 2015 early 2016 and compared them to current news that I wouldn't have a clue what they were now, led me to think they'd already closed in.
 
shellyg said:
It's risky watching someone like that for so long, if anything happened on their watch and he slipped them there would be hell to pay but I read a couple of articles from late 2015 early 2016 and compared them to current news that I wouldn't have a clue what they were now, led me to think they'd already closed in.
Click to expand...

You think they were on to him as early as 2015?


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shellyg said:
Maybe, the pressure would have started going on either way around then and maybe enough stress to split up a 14 year marriage. She left him.
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I hadn't put it together that that was when the marriage folded. And I didn't realise she left him. If he is actually guilty, that must have been a really stressful time for him...


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