Third Stadium in Melbourne

[Walshawk]

Yeah its a very good point, however a deplorable strategic move.

If AFL want north in Tassie until 2027, the $$$ need to be astronomical as it is eating into valuable time for North to develop a secondary market.

Agree. And same with Hawthorn. North pull decent crowds when winning (biggger than Dogs), which they should be by 2026. Again, same with Hawks. Both clubs should be playing 10 - 11 games in Melbourne. Melbourne is the easiest and most logical place to build the fan base.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

I feel like a focus on short term profits rather than long term consistency has not been good for North in developing a secondary fan base. They've tried Sydney, Canberra, Gold Coast, Ballarat and Hobart now. It's time to pick one secondary city and stick to it for the long haul regardless of profits.

Agree totally. We’ve been FIFO hoes for far too long. If it continues then I hope that with Bendigo or Albury-Wodonga then they can commit to it properly. At least playing in smaller cities like that won’t result in our club’s name being dragged through the mud with relocation rumours.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The fact that there was no thought of playing footy @ GC until the Titans came in, then the AFL immediately shifted North there, then tried to bribe them to relocate is evidence is evidence that it was not a well thought out plan. It was reactionary and poorly conceived. I.e. The AFL panicked.

I remember plenty of talk from Dimetriou about this at the time. And offering North $900k per year to play @ GC it was clear what the AFL wanted. AD was very strong that they supported North moving Perhaps try find something on the internet.

As Teen Wolf says above, when you are an AFL funded club you play where the AFL says. Like the Dogs taking Ballarat over from Nth at the time the AFL were trying to shift North to Tassie. Like Dees having to play in Alice Springs. Or GC in Darwin.

Okay fair enough. Hopefully the next secondary home works out better for them.

 

[Freshwater]

The fact that there was no thought of playing footy @ GC until the Titans came in, then the AFL immediately shifted North there, then tried to bribe them to relocate is evidence is evidence that it was not a well thought out plan. It was reactionary and poorly conceived. I.e. The AFL panicked.

I remember plenty of talk from Dimetriou about this at the time. And offering North $900k per year to play @ GC it was clear what the AFL wanted. AD was very strong that they supported North moving Perhaps try find something on the internet.

As Teen Wolf says above, when you are an AFL funded club you play where the AFL says. Like the Dogs taking Ballarat over from Nth at the time the AFL were trying to shift North to Tassie. Like Dees having to play in Alice Springs. Or GC in Darwin.

Except that we had a team there from 1987- 1991. They were called the Brisbane Bears and they played out of Carrara and were the first team to develop Saturday night football. Those light towers at Metricon stadium were put up by Christopher Skase to combat the dominance of Hey Hey it’s Saturday on Saturday nights. The AFL have always had an eye on the Gold Coast. The Gold Coast Titans are actually the third NRL team on the Gold Coast after the Seagulls then the Chargers. And the Suns the second AFL/VFL team there after the Bears.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

AFL played pre-season games on the Gold Coast in 2004 and 2005 to good crowds. It wasn't some panic against the NRL, it was long consideration about the demograhpics of the Gold Coast, with rapidly increasing population in part due to southern state transplants.

They played games for premiership points in 2006, too.

 

[Teen Wolf]

AFL played pre-season games on the Gold Coast in 2004 and 2005 to good crowds. It wasn't some panic against the NRL, it was long consideration about the demograhpics of the Gold Coast, with rapidly increasing population in part due to southern state transplants.

They played games for premiership points in 2006, too.

The NRL's GC expansion started to build momentum in 2003. Then the AFL started scheduling pre-season matches there.

The new GC NRL team was announced in 2005. Then the AFL started scheduling matches for premiership points there.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The NRL's GC expansion started to build momentum in 2003. Then the AFL started scheduling pre-season matches there.

The new GC NRL team was announced in 2005. Then the AFL started scheduling matches for premiership points there.

Sure, but there's no way to prove this assertion against the common sense that the fast growing nature of the city and the rapid nature it became Australia's 6th biggest city over this time frame caused both the AFL and the NRL to make their decision.

Keep in mind that the AFL made a lot of fundamental changes to how they operated (too many to list here) 2002 onward with the security of the new TV rights deal from that year. It's logical they would have dipped their toes into Gold Coast from that point onward but not earlier.

 

[Seedsfan]

I think this is very needed you see the money getting put in by governments to different suburban grounds to host women’s games.

We would be better having one 20k stadium. It can hold low drawing men’s games and be the home of women’s footy.

The issue is where do you put it?

 

[Cubs2Lions]

I think this is very needed you see the money getting put in by governments to different suburban grounds to host women’s games.

We would be better having one 20k stadium. It can hold low drawing men’s games and be the home of women’s footy.

The issue is where do you put it?

Obviously the more likely option would be in the CBD of Melbourne but always thought somewhere like Dandenong in SE Melbourne, where apparently there will be heaps of population growth in the future.

Only issue though would be public transport to and from the stadium compared to the other two stadiums we have.

 

[JohnZ]

The issue is where do you put it?

The ideal spot was E-Gate, right next to North Melbourne station. But they built the west gate tunnel above ground through that area so the location is no good anymore.

There was an idea floating around of Gosch's paddock. With an oval running ENE to WSW (ie East-West but tilted clockwise by 22.5deg). A stadium the size of Marvel fits within the space (see below), so a boutique 30-35k seat stadium would fit fine.

Consolidate the precinct, and put the money into rebuilding richmond station west of punt road (with an entrance east of punt road). Deck over the railway line to link the MOPT to yarra park and punt rd oval.

Feasibility wise, it becomes the home of the Melbourne Stars, and any ODI/T20 International cricket over the summer (Dec-Jan). The VICs would still play majority out of Junction Oval. Outside of this, it gets used for lower drawing AFL games, and replaces ikon park for the AFLW. Would help the AFL to expand the season duration and give more flexibility for scheduling games.

 

[Seedsfan]

The ideal spot was E-Gate, right next to North Melbourne station. But they built the west gate tunnel above ground through that area so the location is no good anymore.

There was an idea floating around of Gosch's paddock. With an oval running ENE to WSW (ie East-West but tilted clockwise by 22.5deg). A stadium the size of Marvel fits within the space (see below), so a boutique 30-35k seat stadium would fit fine.

Consolidate the precinct, and put the money into rebuilding richmond station west of punt road (with an entrance east of punt road). Deck over the railway line to link the MOPT to yarra park and punt rd oval.

Feasibility wise, it becomes the home of the Melbourne Stars, and any ODI/T20 International cricket over the summer (Dec-Jan). The VICs would still play majority out of Junction Oval. Outside of this, it gets used for lower drawing AFL games, and replaces ikon park for the AFLW. Would help the AFL to expand the season duration and give more flexibility for scheduling games.

View attachment 1904473

Sounds great to me

 

[Roogal]

I suppose that the most basic question is: Does Victoria need a fifth Aussie Rules football stadium? The government have invested heavily to redevelop GMHBA Stadium to bring it to 40,000 capacity since 2009. They are about to embark upon a $70 million upgrade of Mars Stadium to bring it to 16,000 capacity. Further we already have two very well strategically positioned stadiums in the inner city with Marvel Stadium literally sitting adjacent to the the very heart of Melbourne's (and Victoria's) train system where every train (Metro and V/Line) feeds through at Southern Cross Station. Even the MCG can't boast that, it's train traffic is all mainly from the Eastern lines and anybody travelling to the G by train from the West or North of the city has to either change trains at Southern Cross, catch a tram or walk.

If they can justify a fifth stadium then the next question is whether it can be strategically placed to maximise PT access in the metro area, or is it proposed to build just a smaller version of the MCG in the inner city, and if so which clubs would occupy it? Building a stadium out in the far reaches of the burbs may not necessarily work when we consider the traffic nightmare that was VFL Park back in the day. That said, this can be alleviated by at least positioning the stadium near a major train line with express capability (Something that VFL Park never had).

 

[Rickee]

It's great to see regional areas of Victoria being discussed, but Ballarat has an advantage of being a major regional area that can handle an influx of fans, it's 90 minutes away and it's has direct train access. I expect Bendigo would be a similar story.

Contrast that with Horsham, where I live, and it's a whole nother story: we are 3.5 hours away, no direct train service, and very limited space. Parking would be a nightmare and there is absolutely nowhere to stay if you even want to do that, and there's precious little around here to actually do. The main sports grounds are basic to say the least, and even though the City Oval is getting a facelift, it's still going to be a country footy ground.

While I'd absolutely love an AFL game up here, the best we could probably do is a VFL pre season game between the stand alones.

 

[JohnZ]

If they can justify a fifth stadium then the next question is whether it can be strategically placed to maximise PT access in the metro area, or is it proposed to build just a smaller version of the MCG in the inner city, and if so which clubs would occupy it?

Both City stadiums are massive and expensive to run. Both have a breakeven crowd in the range of 30k to 40k (the fact that Marvel is the same is half the problem). The 9 Melbourne clubs need to move away from a home ground model to a crowd demand model. The two stadiums hosting 4-5 games a week combined limits what the AFL can do too (can only schedule 4 games over Sat-Sun).

*By having a third stadium, 3 games can be scheduled in Melb on a Sat or Sun making it easier to schedule interstate games on a Thur/Fri night (whilst not publicly spoken about, this is a massive reason for having a lot of Friday night games in Melb). Increasing the fairness of the fixture.

*Moving to a crowd demand model means that clubs make money with every game, not just when the stars align. The big VIC derbies get played at the G, the other vic derbies plus the big interstate clubs get played at Marvel, and the remainder get played at the new boutique stadium

*To make it stack up financially, you need to increase the number of rounds in an AFL season and to bring the VIC clubs back from Tassie. With 18 clubs, a full H+A season of 17 home games per club would give 153 games in Melbourne (51 per venue). Currently, MCG and Marvel host ~45 each. But those 51 would have a higher average attendance too, compounding the increase in revenue.

*To make it fair on the interstate clubs, the Grand Final would need to rotate. If the GF isn't at the MCG every year, it reduces the need for interstate teams to play at the G. Even years in Melbourne (2024, 2026, 2028 etc), Odd years interstate (2025 in SYD, 2027 in Perth, 2029 in Brisbane, 2031 in Adelaide, 2033 in SYD repeating etc). 10/18 clubs are in VIC with 8/16 Grand Finals, whilst 2/18 clubs are in each other state with 2/16 Grand Finals, giving a slight edge to the interstates.

*The MCG would be compensated by the additional H+A revenue and a perpetual contract for the GF every second year for 99 years. This doesn't work without everyone getting an increase in revenue. The new ground could also be used as a training base for Melbourne who are currently out at Casey.

*For the players, byes would become individualised. No one can expect them to play a 34 game H+A season followed by finals. Like any other employee, they get annual leave to be taken during the season. Players would be capped at 28 games during season and need to be managed. An AFL reserves comp would support the Seniors to ensure enough players are fit and available for all 34 games.

*A 34 game H+A season would need to start in the middle of feb to be finished by the end of September (or first week of Oct). Giving enough time to finish the finals (realistically a top 4 or 6) over 2-3 weeks by end of Oct. Rotate the last test of the summer between Perth/Adelaide/Brisbane and the affect team would need to play away for the first couple of weeks.

This is all to say, the financials of a 3rd stadium are complex and require a lot of moving parts to make work. Without all of these changes, the cost (~$500m) doesn't stack up.

 

[Roogal]

Both City stadiums are massive and expensive to run. Both have a breakeven crowd in the range of 30k to 40k (the fact that Marvel is the same is half the problem). The 9 Melbourne clubs need to move away from a home ground model to a crowd demand model. The two stadiums hosting 4-5 games a week combined limits what the AFL can do too (can only schedule 4 games over Sat-Sun).

*By having a third stadium, 3 games can be scheduled in Melb on a Sat or Sun making it easier to schedule interstate games on a Thur/Fri night (whilst not publicly spoken about, this is a massive reason for having a lot of Friday night games in Melb). Increasing the fairness of the fixture.

*Moving to a crowd demand model means that clubs make money with every game, not just when the stars align. The big VIC derbies get played at the G, the other vic derbies plus the big interstate clubs get played at Marvel, and the remainder get played at the new boutique stadium

*To make it stack up financially, you need to increase the number of rounds in an AFL season and to bring the VIC clubs back from Tassie. With 18 clubs, a full H+A season of 17 home games per club would give 153 games in Melbourne (51 per venue). Currently, MCG and Marvel host ~45 each. But those 51 would have a higher average attendance too, compounding the increase in revenue.

*To make it fair on the interstate clubs, the Grand Final would need to rotate. If the GF isn't at the MCG every year, it reduces the need for interstate teams to play at the G. Even years in Melbourne (2024, 2026, 2028 etc), Odd years interstate (2025 in SYD, 2027 in Perth, 2029 in Brisbane, 2031 in Adelaide, 2033 in SYD repeating etc). 10/18 clubs are in VIC with 8/16 Grand Finals, whilst 2/18 clubs are in each other state with 2/16 Grand Finals, giving a slight edge to the interstates.

*The MCG would be compensated by the additional H+A revenue and a perpetual contract for the GF every second year for 99 years. This doesn't work without everyone getting an increase in revenue. The new ground could also be used as a training base for Melbourne who are currently out at Casey.

*For the players, byes would become individualised. No one can expect them to play a 34 game H+A season followed by finals. Like any other employee, they get annual leave to be taken during the season. Players would be capped at 28 games during season and need to be managed. An AFL reserves comp would support the Seniors to ensure enough players are fit and available for all 34 games.

*A 34 game H+A season would need to start in the middle of feb to be finished by the end of September (or first week of Oct). Giving enough time to finish the finals (realistically a top 4 or 6) over 2-3 weeks by end of Oct. Rotate the last test of the summer between Perth/Adelaide/Brisbane and the affect team would need to play away for the first couple of weeks.

This is all to say, the financials of a 3rd stadium are complex and require a lot of moving parts to make work. Without all of these changes, the cost (~$500m) doesn't stack up.

Thank you for your reply. You have stated that the two existing stadiums are large and expensive with high overheads that require 30-40k to break even. That is a fair point, but if you shift games and revenue away from those two stadiums then they will become a liability. It may be better to eliminate one of the stadiums and simply build a smaller 30-40k ground, or reduce the capacity of Marvel Stadium. Perhaps even modify the way in which Marvel stadium is used. Do they need to play with the roof closed for all games? Obviously when the roof is closed the light bill alone would be monumental. With the roof open they can turn only the lights on that are needed to help mitigate the effect of the shadows. Consider if you have two low drawing teams playing there such as North and the Giants for example, do they need to have the upper tier open at all if there are only 20,000 people in there. By closing that section alone would reduce the expenses on cleaning, security, catering facilities located up on that level etc.

I am convinced that there is a lateral alternative solution to a new build.

Of course the next vexing question is who will pay to build a 30-40k seat stadium in Melbourne? The State Government are completely broke having blown billions on freeways, tunnels and the suburban railway loop. If we consider GMHBA Stadium as a benchmark, then there would not be much spare change out of $600 million to fund a stadium build of that magnitude in Melbourne. And of course as proven, with other Government builds, the costs for the damn thing would probably end up escalating to over a billion. I can't see the AFL forking out a cent to build a stadium that would directly compete against their main asset.

 

[JohnZ]

Thank you for your reply. You have stated that the two existing stadiums are large and expensive with high overheads that require 30-40k to break even. That is a fair point, but if you shift games and revenue away from those two stadiums then they will become a liability.

If you read my full reply, you will see that a third stadium only stacks financially if more games are introduced into the market. Under the current 22 game season it would not. Therefore games would not be shifted away per se.

It may be better to eliminate one of the stadiums and simply build a smaller 30-40k ground, or reduce the capacity of Marvel Stadium. Perhaps even modify the way in which Marvel stadium is used. Do they need to play with the roof closed for all games? Obviously when the roof is closed the light bill alone would be monumental. With the roof open they can turn only the lights on that are needed to help mitigate the effect of the shadows. Consider if you have two low drawing teams playing there such as North and the Giants for example, do they need to have the upper tier open at all if there are only 20,000 people in there. By closing that section alone would reduce the expenses on cleaning, security, catering facilities located up on that level etc.

The issues with Marvel having such a high cost base are structural, not operational. Whilst there are some savings from closing the top deck for low drawings games, or by keeping the roof open, the main issue is the rates which get charged for AFL games compared to non-AFL games. The business case for Marvel Stadium is that the AFL season funds the year round operating expenses of the ground (from board members, to groundskeepers to accounting staff etc). This requires a minimum attendance of ~30k per game for 45 games to "break even" on. Anything above this, Marvel and the Clubs split the revenue.

For non-AFL games (A-League, Rugby, Cricket, Concerts, Events), Marvel Stadium splits the revenue from the first patron, which makes it an attractive venue. Until this discrepancy gets fixed (and it's highly unlikely it ever will), the AFL clubs will continue to take on the burden.

I am convinced that there is a lateral alternative solution to a new build

There is, but it's so deeply intrinsic that it will never get fixed. Building a new stadium isn't a solution to the problem either, but it is a solution to ensuring the viability of all 9 clubs in Melbourne.

Of course the next vexing question is who will pay to build a 30-40k seat stadium in Melbourne? The State Government are completely broke having blown billions on freeways, tunnels and the suburban railway loop. If we consider GMHBA Stadium as a benchmark, then there would not be much spare change out of $600 million to fund a stadium build of that magnitude in Melbourne. And of course as proven, with other Government builds, the costs for the damn thing would probably end up escalating to over a billion. I can't see the AFL forking out a cent to build a stadium that would directly compete against their main asset.

The state being "broke" is an overplayed melodramatic 3AW talking point. GMHBA cost more because it was done stand by stand. Building all at once will be cheaper. However, construction costs have gone up since the first stands were built. Hence the ~$500m is a pretty good ballpark.

Ultimately, I could see a combination of AFL, MCC and Vic Gov funding the new stadium, especially if located at Gosch's Paddock. Have a combined AFL/MCC members stand and the remainder for GA/Club. Ideal world, would get built before the Shane Warne stand redevelopment, but realistically a third stadium isn't needed until the comp expands (see my previous post) and so won't be built for 20-30 years (if ever).

 

[Mr north man]

if any Stadium is to built please build one in the suburbs a new type of Waverley Park 60k at Sandown Racecourse which is for sale get a mono rail built going to Dandenong from Monash University then with potential off shoot lines going down East Link North and South which is 5 minutes down the rd.
Then with the ground you can open park land minimal parking resturaunts and mingle and meeting areas.
Just sick of hearing let’s build a ground in the suburbs for people that live there

 

[Rob]

If you read my full reply, you will see that a third stadium only stacks financially if more games are introduced into the market. Under the current 22 game season it would not. Therefore games would not be shifted away per se.


The issues with Marvel having such a high cost base are structural, not operational. Whilst there are some savings from closing the top deck for low drawings games, or by keeping the roof open, the main issue is the rates which get charged for AFL games compared to non-AFL games. The business case for Marvel Stadium is that the AFL season funds the year round operating expenses of the ground (from board members, to groundskeepers to accounting staff etc). This requires a minimum attendance of ~30k per game for 45 games to "break even" on. Anything above this, Marvel and the Clubs split the revenue.

What rates are charged? Marvel tenants don't show any rental or other stadium related expenses in their financials.

 

[JohnZ]

What rates are charged? Marvel tenants don't show any rental or other stadium related expenses in their financials.

Marvel stadium collects all revenue on behalf of the clubs and distributes any profits. The clubs don’t receive ticket sales directly (outside of memberships)

 

[Roogal]

If you read my full reply, you will see that a third stadium only stacks financially if more games are introduced into the market. Under the current 22 game season it would not. Therefore games would not be shifted away per se.


The issues with Marvel having such a high cost base are structural, not operational. Whilst there are some savings from closing the top deck for low drawings games, or by keeping the roof open, the main issue is the rates which get charged for AFL games compared to non-AFL games. The business case for Marvel Stadium is that the AFL season funds the year round operating expenses of the ground (from board members, to groundskeepers to accounting staff etc). This requires a minimum attendance of ~30k per game for 45 games to "break even" on. Anything above this, Marvel and the Clubs split the revenue.

For non-AFL games (A-League, Rugby, Cricket, Concerts, Events), Marvel Stadium splits the revenue from the first patron, which makes it an attractive venue. Until this discrepancy gets fixed (and it's highly unlikely it ever will), the AFL clubs will continue to take on the burden.


There is, but it's so deeply intrinsic that it will never get fixed. Building a new stadium isn't a solution to the problem either, but it is a solution to ensuring the viability of all 9 clubs in Melbourne.


The state being "broke" is an overplayed melodramatic 3AW talking point. GMHBA cost more because it was done stand by stand. Building all at once will be cheaper. However, construction costs have gone up since the first stands were built. Hence the ~$500m is a pretty good ballpark.

Ultimately, I could see a combination of AFL, MCC and Vic Gov funding the new stadium, especially if located at Gosch's Paddock. Have a combined AFL/MCC members stand and the remainder for GA/Club. Ideal world, would get built before the Shane Warne stand redevelopment, but realistically a third stadium isn't needed until the comp expands (see my previous post) and so won't be built for 20-30 years (if ever).

I understand that you believe that it's viable, but I am not convinced and therefore we simply have to agree to disagree.

 

[Rob]

Marvel stadium collects all revenue on behalf of the clubs and distributes any profits. The clubs don’t receive ticket sales directly (outside of memberships)

How does that work given most attendees at most matches are members? Clubs collect that revenue.
Is that why you're seeing an explosion in the cheaper 1 and 3 game memberships? To get around whatever deal is in place?

 

[JohnZ]

I understand that you believe that it's viable, but I am not convinced and therefore we simply have to agree to disagree.

Only viable with an expansion in the number of home and away games. Thats a pretty big if. Under the current 22 game structure its not viable.

How does that work given most attendees at most matches are members? Clubs collect that revenue.
Is that why you're seeing an explosion in the cheaper 1 and 3 game memberships? To get around whatever deal is in place?

Not sure. Its very murky…

 

[Millsie69]

if any Stadium is to built please build one in the suburbs a new type of Waverley Park 60k at Sandown Racecourse which is for sale get a mono rail built going to Dandenong from Monash University then with potential off shoot lines going down East Link North and South which is 5 minutes down the rd.
Then with the ground you can open park land minimal parking resturaunts and mingle and meeting areas.
Just sick of hearing let’s build a ground in the suburbs for people that live there

Is there a chance the track could bend?

 

[Billy ray]

Is there a chance the track could bend?

What about us brain-dead slobs?

 

[Millsie69]

What about us brain-dead slobs?

You’ll be given cushy jobs