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Thomas/Pendlebury V Ellis/Dowler

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but what excactly proves that i am wrong? in terms of what has been achieved at this point in time what evidence is there.. All we are all doing here is speculating about four young lads.. two of which have shown promise and the other have shown jack..

like i said how am i wrong.. how am i deluded? when u go to court u are judged on evidence provided.. not speculation... however proffesional opinions are sometimes used... but i dont see mick malthouse or derek hine in here?

Don't worry spartan some people a very precious about their opinions on this board. I like your optomistic outlook.
 
It is way to early to tell really, there are some interesting opinions out there guess i should wack mine in there too. The only player i have seen that much of is Thomas and from what i have seen i don't think he has won you any matches yet. He has certainly played well in winning sides and as was your style last year, when you got on top he played loose and did some damage (Probably when he did the most damage). You have to rate him to have such an impact in his first year and he is definately a talent, he definately has the ego to play afl footy. It will be interesting to see how he continues to develop this year! I can see myself not liking him as a player cause he isn't in brown and gold and he might carve us up in the future, but best of luck to him.
 

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bump - fast forward 12 months.

collingwood's lead has probably lengthened here.
thomas didn't miss a game in 07, and pendlebury came 2nd in your B&F didn't he?
with these two, you now have 2 automatic selections who can turn a match.

for us, ellis is now a regular selection in our side, and got 23 possessions last weekend. he's still a bit underweight, and isn't yet as attacking with the ball as he could be. however, he's coming on well - i'd expect him to play more or less the whole season, and continue his upwards trend.

dowler is a tricky one. with franklin, roughead, boyle, and williams all productive in our forward line, it's difficult for hawthorn to provide dowler with the 15-20 senior games he'd need to find his place in the side/league.
he had 4 shots on goal in 10 minutes for box hill a week ago (ended the day with 3.4, i think), but hasn't otherwise dominated at VFL level.

like josh kennedy (taken at 4 in the same draft), he seems to be still hovering on the borderline between AFL and state league. dowler was given one AFL game last year and kicked 2 goals (from about 5 possessions), but made way for a returning franklin the following week. he's also competing with mitch thorp - our #6 pick from the following season who is also slogging away as a key forward out at box hill, and was given one AFL game last season.

dowler's body is bigger than last year, and he doesn't turn 21 until the end of the year. there's still time, but he's yet to provide evidence of "will be a 10 year player" that thomas and pendlebury did last year, and ellis is providing now.

thoughts?

if i remember, i'll dig this thread up next year for another look at how it's going.
 
for us, ellis is now a regular selection in our side, and got 23 possessions last weekend. he's still a bit underweight, and isn't yet as attacking with the ball as he could be. however, he's coming on well - i'd expect him to play more or less the whole season, and continue his upwards trend.
Still, even him being a regular selection, you'd have to say that you're not getting the kind of play from him that you would expect from a #3 draft pick. He's decent, but I've yet to see anything even close to resembling a BOG or matchwinning performance from him.

I'll admit, I liked him A LOT pre-2005 draft, but I honestly think that he's too timid to ever dominate at AFL level as he has the talent to do. He has decent pace, a good footy brain, and elite footskills, but he's not attacking the game enough to make these things hurt - He seems like he's just doing what he has to do.
 
Still, even him being a regular selection, you'd have to say that you're not getting the kind of play from him that you would expect from a #3 draft pick. He's decent, but I've yet to see anything even close to resembling a BOG or matchwinning performance from him.

I'll admit, I liked him A LOT pre-2005 draft, but I honestly think that he's too timid to ever dominate at AFL level as he has the talent to do. He has decent pace, a good footy brain, and elite footskills, but he's not attacking the game enough to make these things hurt - He seems like he's just doing what he has to do.

i more or less agree. he hasn't plateaued though, so i remain hopeful that he can become that player yet. his tackling and willingness to run into physical contests is noticeably better than last year, and i would assume that stuff will improve further when he puts on a few more kilos.
i reckon last year he was being carried in the side for a number of his games, but this year he's now pulling his weight. if by next year (age 21) he's moved the step beyond that (a few brownlow votes), then that's a steady and acceptably quick progression for a #3 pick that needed physical development.
 
Just thought I'd point out that had we not have the ace up our sleeves in Pendlebury i don't think we would have taken Thomas over Ellis. Ellis was the almost a sure thing to go at 2, I think the reason we went with Thomas is Hine saw the potential in Pendles and the fact that the pro's for both would be similar hence taking the risk on pendles later freeing us up to get Thomas at 3
 
Next instalment, about 15 games later. The two sides are up against each other this week, so I thought it'd be topical.
I confess that I haven't seen a lot of Collingwood this year, but from what I have seen, Pendlebury appears to be down slightly on last year's form, while Thomas has probably stepped up a bit.
With some extra experience and fitness, Thomas seems to have become a more consistent player who is able to contribute to the team in more ways than previously. This is exactly the type of development that he needed to make, so it would be pleasing for a Collingwood fan.
Pendlebury is copping a bit more attention from opposition midfielders than he was last year, and seems to still be figuring out how to deal with that. I saw him at the pub a couple of weeks ago, and he looked more broad across the shoulders than he used to - probably a bit of size development left in him too.

On the Hawthorn side, I've been keeping an occasional eye on the "2005 draft revisited" thread on BF, and Ellis has been sliding his way up from about rank 15 at the start of the year, and is well in the top 10 now. He's still skinny, but I've been surprised by just how hard he hits packs now. He's not yet showing dazzling skills, but he makes good decisions and disposes of the ball well. Still doesn't have the running power to spend a whole game in the centre, but the overall improvement continues. Average possession count is rising, also.

Dowler - still stuck behind Franklin, Roughead, Williams (who are all having excellent years). At Box Hill last game (who are rubbish this year), he was released into the "Richo role", where he had 25 possessions, 3 goals, and 8 inside 50s. Still inconsistent, still lacking in confidence, but he has improved noticeably this year. He's one more level away from playing himself into the senior side despite the players we already have. As it is though, he's yet to deliver on his potential, and the clock continues to tick.
 
Next instalment, about 15 games later. The two sides are up against each other this week, so I thought it'd be topical.
I confess that I haven't seen a lot of Collingwood this year, but from what I have seen, Pendlebury appears to be down slightly on last year's form, while Thomas has probably stepped up a bit.
With some extra experience and fitness, Thomas seems to have become a more consistent player who is able to contribute to the team in more ways than previously. This is exactly the type of development that he needed to make, so it would be pleasing for a Collingwood fan.
Pendlebury is copping a bit more attention from opposition midfielders than he was last year, and seems to still be figuring out how to deal with that. I saw him at the pub a couple of weeks ago, and he looked more broad across the shoulders than he used to - probably a bit of size development left in him too.

On the Hawthorn side, I've been keeping an occasional eye on the "2005 draft revisited" thread on BF, and Ellis has been sliding his way up from about rank 15 at the start of the year, and is well in the top 10 now. He's still skinny, but I've been surprised by just how hard he hits packs now. He's not yet showing dazzling skills, but he makes good decisions and disposes of the ball well. Still doesn't have the running power to spend a whole game in the centre, but the overall improvement continues. Average possession count is rising, also.

Dowler - still stuck behind Franklin, Roughead, Williams (who are all having excellent years). At Box Hill last game (who are rubbish this year), he was released into the "Richo role", where he had 25 possessions, 3 goals, and 8 inside 50s. Still inconsistent, still lacking in confidence, but he has improved noticeably this year. He's one more level away from playing himself into the senior side despite the players we already have. As it is though, he's yet to deliver on his potential, and the clock continues to tick.

While I like Ellis as a footballer, he's a ball magnet and can often release the ball into space which opens up Hawthorn's passage forward, I disagree with the above statement. Firstly, his kicking is not yet up to standard, hence why he hanballs more than he kicks. Secondly, his decision making isnt quite there yet. Still gets caught whilst in possession too much and often turns the ball over.
 

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While I like Ellis as a footballer, he's a ball magnet and can often release the ball into space which opens up Hawthorn's passage forward, I disagree with the above statement. Firstly, his kicking is not yet up to standard, hence why he hanballs more than he kicks. Secondly, his decision making isnt quite there yet. Still gets caught whilst in possession too much and often turns the ball over.

Sorry, this is where I know you're just being parochial. I was super gentle in my appraisal of the Collingwood players - there are Collingwood fans thinking Pendlebury might need a run in the VFL, and the difference between Thomas' best and worst is still large.

Over the past three weeks (against 3 quality sides: Syd/StK/Geel), Ellis has kicked more than he's handballed, and his disposal effectiveness percentage has been considerably higher than any of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Bateman, and Sewell. Behind Geelong, Hawthorn's handball count is the second highest in the league - attacking handball is a key part of the gameplan of the two sides, and one of the reasons why the sides have been successful this year.

Very happy to hear criticisms of Ellis, in fact I made a number of them myself, but I will clarify ones that are currently factually incorrect.
 
Sorry, this is where I know you're just being parochial. I was super gentle in my appraisal of the Collingwood players - there are Collingwood fans thinking Pendlebury might need a run in the VFL, and the difference between Thomas' best and worst is still large.

Over the past three weeks (against 3 quality sides: Syd/StK/Geel), Ellis has kicked more than he's handballed, and his disposal effectiveness percentage has been considerably higher than any of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Bateman, and Sewell. Behind Geelong, Hawthorn's handball count is the second highest in the league - attacking handball is a key part of the gameplan of the two sides, and one of the reasons why the sides have been successful this year.

Very happy to hear criticisms of Ellis, in fact I made a number of them myself, but I will clarify ones that are currently factually incorrect.

Yep, definitely agree, and thats what I said at the start. I like the way he puts people into space with his handballs. But he still gets caught too often and makes wrong decisions. But this will come with time and experience

And sorry, but I'm not being parochial, I like Ellis, I'd have him in our team in a flash
 

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Thomas/Pendlebury V Ellis/Dowler

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