Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[FlowersByIrene]

The player ratings system seems broken to me. It doesn't match the eye test so often

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

Im not a big fan of it personally either. But it's positives for this excerise are basucally that it;

-: Is a universal, unbiased metric, updated weekly, game by game, and encorproates a players whole career.

 

[P_Crippy]

First year down.
Seems a clean out similar to last summer os in order.
SOSAJ, C Curnow, Cuningham, Weitering, McKay have their first year under their belt and i think the draftees as a whole have performed above expectations.
The other players traded in have been more positive than negative and will all hopefully improve next year.
So another big off season and hopefully the same incremental improvement next year.
List positions will become more premium than they have been this year and hopefully the extra competition will result in better performances at senior and reserves level.
Not ignoring the last game, but the season as a whole has exceeded most pundits expectations this year.
Good start to rebuild.

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Better than expected year with a poor finish

Our best 4 players are the same every week

Like the look of all our draftees

Wright , Sumner , Phillips , Plowman have all been solid

negatives - still a lot of players need to be turned over ..... Thomas , Everett to name a couple

Casboult , Jones & Rowe are still needed for now

Graham - sorry to say is VFL standard

 

[Soapy V]

lots to do and we need another 2 trade/draft periods like last year, if not better. just no more 25 plus players. at the end of this we will hopefully have a balanced young list with talent in which to go forward. even at the end of a 66 game rebuild we are still a fair way away from a premiership threat

 

[passmark]

..also, apart from Casey, the list doesn't appear to have any long term injuries.

Last year Murph, Plowman, Sumner, all missed most of pre-season and we had a number of players a bit fat.

I'm confident Bolts will drive this mob as hard as **** during the off-season.

 

[teknodeejay]

There's a fair few questionable spots. If you were to put the torch over the list, only Simmo, Doc, the captain, Gibbs, E. Curnow, Cripps and Weitering are absolute quality right now. I think Wright gets included based on his continuous efforts, but after that it's either too early to tell (Silvagni, Curnow, McKay, Cunningham), or still questionable in terms of could they be part of a premiership tilt, including the guys they've brought in other than Wright who I think has shown his worth.

No doubt I've missed a name or two that will upset some. Advanced apologies, but you get what I'm trying to say.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'll have a big series of posts in here with some hard facts and comparisons.

But I think simply put, we've done the best we could of hoped for this year. We cleaned out, and brought in talent. I think we nailed the draft and we've been blooding them well.

We need another off season like last. I think SOS will find another first round pick and bring some experienced youth in from other clubs. The off season will be exciting.

Our short-mid term future squad has a few definites in it;

Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, E. Curnow, Rowe and Wright will be in the side for the next 2+ years. Touhy, Kreuzer would be there unless they are traded. Phillips and Casboult are in the mix unless traded or drop off in form.

As for kids, Cripps, Docherty, Weitering, C. Curnow, Plowman, Sumner, Silvagni, McKay and Cuningham will be best 22 from next season onwards. Byrne will be there too once fit.

Thats about 16-18 players. Over the next two off seasons we need to find 8-10 more talented kids, be that developing our current kids like Boekhurst etc or bringing them in through the draft or trading. But we need 8-10 more talented kids and then replacements for Rowe, Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson and Kreuzer.

So we need 13-15 more talented kids in the next two years. That's probably unlikely, so we may have to extend it to grabbing the last couple of replacements in a third year but still.

Pick #5, Marchbank, Tomlinson, O'Meara is four already, we'd probably want two more at least this off season, is Stewart the guy? Can SOS conjur up another first round pick or an early second or two? They will be the questions.

 

[teknodeejay]

Pick #5, Marchbank, Tomlinson, O'Meara

How is the club going to get those three blokes, or did I misread you?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

How is the club going to get those three blokes, or did I misread you?

Marchbank and Tomlinson I expect to be traded for our 2nd round pick. Tomlinson is the salary dump and Marchbank the prize, Marchbank would be worth a very late first on his own, so considering we take Tommo's contracted salary off their hands, an early 2nd is probably worth it.

As for getting Jaeger, I think something along the lines of

2017 1st & 2016 2nd Rounder (gained by trading Casboult or Touhy) & Everitt, for Jaeger & Pick #9 and maybe another pick back our way. Is one way to go.

Another option is to trade Touhy to Sydney for their 1st Round selection (we may need to throw a 3rd in) and then trade that Sydney 1st, Everitt and a 2017 2nd to GC for Jaeger.

Something like that.

Then you trade 2018's 1st for a pick in the 2017 first round (if we trade it away, or if we didnt, we'll need either 1 or 2 1st rounders in 2017) then use 2nd Round selections in 2018 to draft Ben Silvagni.

That's my early thinking anyway.

Pick #4,
Pick #9,
Jaeger O'Meara
Caleb Marchbank
Adam Tomlinson
3rd Round - Kerbatieh??

That's a decent addition to the list, and gets us almost halfway to where we need to be.

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Expect we will trade for Marchbank & Tomlinson but that's it

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Expect we will trade for Marchbank & Tomlinson but that's it

Because sitting on his laurels is exactly how SOS plays trade weeks...

I think it's blatanly obvious we will do a lot of deals this off season. And I know it's only Damien Barret but he suggested as such in his "Sliding Doors" article this week.

 

[Soapy V]

Tomlinson looks a key defender as does Jaksch. We also have gmac. Next year Rowe should play fwd/ruck. Can make contest & is a solid kick. Much better than jones or bolt. Get as many games in to McKay Silvagni Curnow & maybe Stewart w Gorringe the wild card.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

I'll have a big series of posts in here with some hard facts and comparisons...
Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, E. Curnow, Rowe and Wright will be in the side for the next 2+ years...

Simpson should hold up. Wright has shown more than enough to suggest he'll be around for a few. Not sure about Rowe.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Simpson should hold up. Wright has shown more than enough to suggest he'll be around for a few. Not sure about Rowe.

Rowe's quality and i'll not hear opposite.
I didn't see today's game, but I imagine or whole backline was under pressure today from the consistent forward 50 entries.

 

[The Flying Doormat]

Rowe's quality and i'll not hear opposite.
I didn't see today's game, but I imagine or whole backline was under pressure today from the consistent forward 50 entries.

Rowe plays his role. But 2+ years? Can't see it happening.

 

[thylacine60]

I know we've made progress on many levels but there were times yesterday when I could easily have become a doubter.

 

[Sin City]

Rowe's quality and i'll not hear opposite.
I didn't see today's game, but I imagine or whole backline was under pressure today from the consistent forward 50 entries.

Not meaning to derail the thread but we smashed them 61-45 in inside 50s and had one more scoring shot. We kicked 10.19 so while the midfield needs a serious injection of top talent the forward line was also at fault for yesterday's debacle.

 

[Salt Lake Cities]

lots to do and we need another 2 trade/draft periods like last year, if not better. just no more 25 plus players. at the end of this we will hopefully have a balanced young list with talent in which to go forward. even at the end of a 66 game rebuild we are still a fair way away from a premiership threat

We definitely need a good draft/trade period for at least the next 2 years, I agree. I think our 2015 draft crop is going to be very special though and tough to beat.

 

[thylacine60]

Not meaning to derail the thread but we smashed them 61-45 in inside 50s and had one more scoring shot. We kicked 10.19 so while the midfield needs a serious injection of top talent the forward line was also at fault for yesterday's debacle.

we didn't smash anything yesterday, Sin......

 

[Jabba73]

Consensus seems to be another 8-15 players turned over this off season.

That being the case, we need one or more 3-4 for 1 deals like the GWS deal from last season.

We cant go the other way and bundle players/picks to move up the draft as we simply wont have enough picks left to fill up the list.

 

[RAPPA]

we didn't smash anything yesterday, Sin......

Except our hopes

 

[thylacine60]

That third quarter was our worst performance for the whole season I'm thinking, RAPPA.

 

[Realtrublu]

Frankly I don't care what anyone says but we were the poorest performing team in the second half of the season. We got beaten by the other two cellar dwellers. Forget about the close finishes. When it mattered most, in assessing our progress, we could not beat the last and second last teams. That says it all IMHO.

We have a very long way to go, alas.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Graph: graphical representation of number of "youth" selected in the best 22 (Series 1) along with that youth's performance, by way of AFL Coaches Association votes (Series 2), average youth AFL Player Rating* (Series 3) and average SEN Inside Football Player Rating Points** (Series 4)
* Avg AFL Player Rating = total player rating / number of players.
** Avg SEN Inside Football Player Rating = total player rating points / number of players.

GAME 22 - LOSS vs Essendon (79-103)
10 Youth Players
OUT: Andrejs Everitt (Omit) Ed Curnow (Knee)
IN: Jack Silvagni, Sam Kerridge
Coaches Votes:
Player Ratings Points (AFL,SEN):

Patrick Cripps - 447.8 (+), 7
Sam Docherty - 391.6 (+), 7
Jacob Weitering - 179 (+), 6
Dylan Buckley - 162.5 (+), 6
Lachie Plowman - 155.7 (-), 3
Sam Kerridge - 145.5 (-), 5
Nick Graham - 124.5 (+), 4
Liam Sumner - 102.2 (+), 2
Jack Silvagni - 46.6 (+), 5
David Cuningham - 13.3 (+), 5

Avg Rating: 176.9, 5


It was with a whimper rather than a roar that we fell across the line at the end of 2016. A loss to the arch rival drug cheats is too hard to bare, so let's not discuss it.
Patrick Cripps broke 20 contested disposals again as he collected 23 contested possessions in his 32 possession game, his disposal efficiency was an impressive 81%, he had no clangers outside his two free kicks against, he willed his way to 10 disposals to take his yearly total to the 4th greatest amount in a season of ALL time, he also laid 8 tackles and had an inside 50. Sam Docherty was named in the AA squad this week and capped off his season with another great game, 26 disposals at 73%, 8 marks, 9 rebound 50's, 7 bounces, 4 1% acts and 3 inside 50's in another prodigious effort between the arcs. Dylan Buckley found 21 disposals at a disappointing 57% eff. He had 5 clangers, but also had 5 inside 50's and slotted a late goal. Sam Kerridge came back in and did a reasonable job on Goddard, he had 17 disposals at 64% eff, with 3 clangers, 4 tackles, 3 1%ers and 3 inside 50's but was wasteful in front of goals with 1.3 on the scoreboard. Nick Graham had limited impact with 20 disposals at 60%, 5 marks on the spread was impressive, but made almost no impact elsewhere on the stat sheet, 5 inside 50's is something to note, but eggs across the rest of the board. Jack Silvagni came back in to excite the fans on a dark day, he had 8 disposals at 25% eff, with 2 clangers, he kicked 2 behinds and had 2 inside 50's but his forward pressure with 7 tackles was the most important aspect of his game. Jacob Weitering was our best performed key defender with 17 disposals at 94% eff, 3 marks, no clangers, a contested mark, 4 rebound 50's and 4 1%ers. What a season by the no.1 pick. David Cuningham has impressed me in his short time, he had 13 disposals at 69% and managed 6 inside 50's in that batch, 3 marks, 2 clangers, 2 tackles and a rebound 50 rounded off a promising game. Lachie Plowman had a disappointing game, only finding 12 disposals at 58% eff, he had 3 1%ers and 3 marks but couldn't impose himself on the contest. Liam Sumner was very quiet with 9 disposals, 2 tackles and 2 inside 50's,

From the Magoos
Kristian Jaksch was prolific with 27 disposals.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

B I G | P I C T U R E
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2/6th Review | THE "Wheels Fell Off A Little Bit" PERIOD​

YOUTH (23 & Under) AS OF THE START OF THE 2016 SEASON
23: Daniel Gorringe (22 g.p) Jed Lamb (23 g.p) Mark Whiley (20 g.p) Dylan Buckley (28 g.p)
22: Sam Kerridge (27 g.p) Liam Sumner (12 g.p) Blaine Boekhurst (11 g.p) Sam Docherty (48 g.p) Andrew Gallucci (0 g.p)
21: Nicholas Graham (16 g.p) Lachie Plowman (20 g.p) Kristian Jaksch (13 g.p) Matthew Dick (6 g.p) Ciaran Byrne (1 g.p) Patrick Cripps (23 g.p)
20: Jayden Foster (0 g.p) Clem Smith (7 g.p) Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (0 g.p)
19: Billy Gowers (0 g.p) Jesse Glass-McKasker (0 g.p) Charlie Curnow (0 g.p) David Cuningham (0 g.p)
18: Jacob Weitering (0 g.p) Jack Silvagni (0 g.p) Harry McKay (0 g.p)

In the second period of Carlton's rebuild the team played 11 games, won 1 and lost 10. It was an awful end to the season. Injuries to Murphy and Byrne were critical in the seasons momentum, but cannot be attributed to the drop off in form. The side had some admirable losses (too many) against quality sides like West Coast Eagles and Geelong, but simultaneously didn't put in a proper effort against lesser ranked teams such as Brisbane and Essendon. The youth was both at fault for this and successful in spite of these circumstances. Form drop offs from players such as Kerridge and Graham can be directly attributed to a poorer performance by the club, but then simultaneously Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering and Jack Silvagni performed very well against the flow of momentum. In terms of development, I would state it was overtly positive when considered as a whole, despite the disappointing results in the win-loss column.

Below is a graphical representation of how the youth have performed over second 11 games of this rebuild, and the first 11 games of the year.



11 Games: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Lachie Plowman, Jacob Weitering
10 Games: Sam Kerridge
9 Games: Liam Sumner
8 Games: Jack Silvagni
7 Games: Dylan Buckley
6 Games: Nick Graham
5 Games: Jed Lamb
4 Games: Blaine Boekhurst
3 Games: David Cuningham, Ciaran Byrne
2 Games: Charlie Curnow
1 Games: Daniel Gorringe, Kristian Jaksch

The Carlton Football Club played 16 youth players over the course of the last 11 games of the year. Four of those players were integral parts of every game. Injuries to Ciaran Byrne and Charlie Curnow ended their seasons on low games played. Minor injuries to Kerridge, Sumner, Boekhurst and Lamb also curtailed their seasons. Regardless Carlton played on average 9.3 youth players per week, a noticeable rise on the roughly 8.6 played across the seasons first 11 games.

Below is a comparative graph of the average AFL Player Rating of our youth over the first half of the year compared to the second half, as we can see it has continued to steadily rise in the second half of the year. Only at one point, at around game 16 did our average rating dip below the highest point it had reached in the first half of the year, and our average rating for the last game of the year was in the mid 170's, 20 points higher than the mid point of the year. The trends here are positive to note, Sam Dochertty and Patrick Cripps are become elite players, Jacob Weitering has exploded as a first year player and we are getting significant growth out of the like of Lachie Plowman, Dylan Buckley, Ciaran Byrne, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Liam Sumner.


Series 1 - Games 1-11 Average AFL Player Ratings, Series 2 - Games 12-22 Average AFL Player Ratings

The average SEN Insider Ratings points accrued by our youth over the second half of the year also had a noticeable positive upward movement. Moving from averaging around 4 points per player per game up to around the five point mark. Sam Docherty who is having an All-Australian worthy year personally averages in the 7-9 mark for most of his games, as does Patrick Cripps. Projecting forward we would aim for this group of player to be playing at that level if we are to challenge for finals and eventually premierships. This metric will be interesting to follow as the rebuild progresses. We want our youth to be pushing towards an average of 6-7 points per player per game based on this statistic. Upward trends in both the first 11 and second 11 games of the year suggest the future is oneof the growth and green shoots, as our youth start to put more consistent and superior performances in on game days.



Looking back on the season, two period of significant growth in our youth is all we could have asked for. Combined with the fact we put almost 10 kids on the park every week is mission accomplished in my eyes in what we can expect of year one of a rebuild. I would have loved for Charlie Curnow and Ciaran Byrne to not get injured. And I would have liked to see more games from Harry McKay, Kristian Jaksch, David Cuningham, and Dillon Viojo-Rainbow, but overall I think year one of the rebuild is a resounding success.

What are your thoughts on the year?