List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[jonmacTrag]

Totally agree. When it comes to trading future picks, our list managers need to assume that we'll finish last and mentally value our picks on that basis, rather than assuming we'll rebound up the ladder, which leads to wrongly discounting their value.

Imagine what we could have traded our first rounder for this year on draft night if we'd held our nerve, rather than trading it away in a panic last year. We could have secured two first rounders for it, burned one on Daicos and landed a genuine first round level talent with the second one. Instead we got two picks in last year's second round and a big points deficit (or more forced trades) to secure Daicos.

Lucky really???
I've only heard that approximately 100 times before and uncountable variations on it
Any chance of leaving it rest and moving forward?

 

[Knightmare]

Did I read Skinner has had 3 knee reco’s ?
If so Schlensog is definitely preferred.

That's correct, though Skinner has broken out this year and become a seriously good key defender.

Schlensog is much younger and still developing, not as advanced, but still the WAFL's best tall.

They're both in a Collingwood context upgrades over Roughead, so I'd be very happy to bring both in.

 

[gouki88]

That's correct, though Skinner has broken out this year and become a seriously good key defender.

Schlensog is much younger and still developing, not as advanced, but still the WAFL's best tall.

They're both in a Collingwood context upgrades over Roughead, so I'd be very happy to bring both in.

I'd love Schlensog, after doing a bit of a dive into him. Great size, only 21, can do a bit of everything.

Is there any actual noise about us being interested in him?

 

[LuckyLee]

Lucky really???
I've only heard that approximately 100 times before and uncountable variations on it
Any chance of leaving it rest and moving forward?

I was simply agreeing with previous poster's comment that we traded this year's first round pick on a flawed assumption that we were not going to slide down the ladder and, consequently, received less than fair value for it. It was a costly mindset fail from our list managers. They're paid the big bucks to stay cool-headed and trade dispassionately, not get sucked in to the trap of thinking that we'll only ever move upwards.

 

[jonmacTrag]

I was simply agreeing with previous poster's comment that we traded this year's first round pick on a flawed assumption that we were not going to slide down the ladder and, consequently, received less than fair value for it. It was a costly mindset fail from our list managers. They're paid the big bucks to stay cool-headed and trade dispassionately, not get sucked in to the trap of thinking that we'll only ever move upwards.

Not really annoyed with anyone in partic lucky I'm just TOTALLY bored shtless with the unending repititions.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd love Schlensog, after doing a bit of a dive into him. Great size, only 21, can do a bit of everything.

Is there any actual noise about us being interested in him?

Not sure who is interested at this stage who is keen but would imagine Collingwood among other teams with KPP needs would be looking closely. Geelong who delisted Schlensog I would expect to be a candidate and may look at him as an upgrade on Kreuger assuming he gets moved. Fremantle have KPP needs at both ends and having played WAFL this year, he may enjoy staying in WA to speculate.

On his game though, and it's analysis of players and how they go about their craft that I focus on. What's special with Schlensog when watching his game is - he tracks the eyes of opposition players to gauge where they're kicking the footy and uses that as his weapon to get into position to intercept to a competition high level when used in defence. At doing that, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone better. And he has the all-around game, with his kick as a bonus particularly good for someone of nearly 2m.

 

[Apex36]

Agree. Dogs would do that deal in a heart beat.

They have a player who is surplus to their current requirements and wants to leave the club. We are giving them a ruckman who would slot straight into their team.

Not a good deal for us.

Lynch is surplus to our requirements, and may also want to leave the club for more opportunity…

 

[partypie]

But do we have the Cap Room to get him?

Easily.

 

[gouki88]

Not sure who is interested at this stage who is keen but would imagine Collingwood among other teams with KPP needs would be looking closely. Geelong who delisted Schlensog I would expect to be a candidate and may look at him as an upgrade on Kreuger assuming he gets moved. Fremantle have KPP needs at both ends and having played WAFL this year, he may enjoy staying in WA to speculate.

On his game though, and it's analysis of players and how they go about their craft that I focus on. What's special with Schlensog when watching his game is - he tracks the eyes of opposition players to gauge where they're kicking the footy and uses that as his weapon to get into position to intercept to a competition high level when used in defence. At doing that, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone better. And he has the all-around game, with his kick as a bonus particularly good for someone of nearly 2m.

Yeah, I would expect Freo to definitely be asking the question.

What do you think of Kreuger? We seem to have an interest in him

 

[johncitizen]

Can someone please give me the current points deficit we need for Daicos.

 

[Jasper84]

... and didn't play in their first final.

Will likely be cut at the end of the year as he's been very ordinary even when he has played. Nowhere near best 25 since he's been at Port, just as he wasn't in his last year at Brisbane.

We've kind of strayed from the path here. My point was that there is a bit of a Mandela Effect when it comes to GW's trading history.

 

[LuckyLee]

Not really annoyed with anyone in partic lucky I'm just TOTALLY bored shtless with the unending repititions.

Yeah, I get the desire to "move on" but our trading and drafting over the past decade as been so deplorably bad that it almost certainly cost us a Premiership, perhaps two. Trading of future picks for Daicos points, Lipinski or whoever just adds even more risk of ****-ups.

Ned Guy is the only one to really feel the axe for it but we was merely the last in a long line of culprits. I'm frustrated by the lack of accountability among those who are paid to get it right. It is many years since Derek Hine could lay any claim to being a recruitment alchemist but he still seems to be revered and his position untouchable.

Here's hoping that we are finally turning the corner with Graeme Wright making the big calls.

 

[magpies42]

Not sure who is interested at this stage who is keen but would imagine Collingwood among other teams with KPP needs would be looking closely. Geelong who delisted Schlensog I would expect to be a candidate and may look at him as an upgrade on Kreuger assuming he gets moved. Fremantle have KPP needs at both ends and having played WAFL this year, he may enjoy staying in WA to speculate.

On his game though, and it's analysis of players and how they go about their craft that I focus on. What's special with Schlensog when watching his game is - he tracks the eyes of opposition players to gauge where they're kicking the footy and uses that as his weapon to get into position to intercept to a competition high level when used in defence. At doing that, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone better. And he has the all-around game, with his kick as a bonus particularly good for someone of nearly 2m.

My only concern is when something is too good to be true it usually is…is there some sort of behavioural or life style issue that Geelong are concerned about. Or is it that they are willing to sacrifice long term success for a tilt at a premiership. If he has the attitude to realise his potential I’d trade Lynch for him

 

[JLC]

We've kind of strayed from the path here. My point was that there is a bit of a Mandela Effect when it comes to GW's trading history.

How would you rate the Tom Mitchell trade?

 

[jonmacTrag]

Yeah, I get the desire to "move on" but our trading and drafting over the past decade as been so deplorably bad that it almost certainly cost us a Premiership, perhaps two. Trading of future picks for Daicos points, Lipinski or whoever just adds even more risk of ****-ups.

Ned Guy is the only one to really feel the axe for it but we was merely the last in a long line of culprits. I'm frustrated by the lack of accountability among those who are paid to get it right. It is many years since Derek Hine could lay any claim to being a recruitment alchemist but he still seems to be revered and his position untouchable.

Here's hoping that we are finally turning the corner with Graeme Wright making the big calls.

I truly believe everyone here understands that Lucky so why do we have to keep on endlessly repeating it??

 

[lenny&carl]

I'm not sure this helped your case... "If you can offload a Thomas for a Lipinski on the same cash, then you've made an incremental improvement, and we need those. (I know nothing about Lipinski, just an example.)"...

Obviously I was arguing for his type, not his specifics.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Can someone please give me the current points deficit we need for Daicos.

Well l gather Daicos will go somewhere in the top 3, so we currently have around 1700 points, and to match a bid in the top 3 we will need ...

Pick 1 — 3000 points — with 20% discount we need 2400

2 — 2517 points — we need 2014

3 — 2234 points — we need 1787

 

[Knightmare]

My only concern is when something is too good to be true it usually is…is there some sort of behavioural or life style issue that Geelong are concerned about. Or is it that they are willing to sacrifice long term success for a tilt at a premiership. If he has the attitude to realise his potential I’d trade Lynch for him

I'm no insider, but I'm not aware of anything off-field other than at one moment in time for Geelong one of the more interesting choices I've seen in hair colour.

What's appealing with Schlensog beyond his current level of play is his rate of improvement has been exponential.

With talls, if they're improving rapidly year on year, there typically is great scope to improve remaining and it's also typically an indicator they're putting in work.

Schlensog's story is basically he was with Geelong as a cat b rookie for two years then at the end of his second year (last year) he was cut. All the pre-season reports with Schlensog from that preseason were overwhelmingly positive talking about him as that most improved player and coming on like a freight train to paraphrase. Matthew Scarlett I believe it was at the time spoke up Schlensog in a big way. But of course in 2020 there weren't the opportunities to play. There was no VFL season, so he didn't really get to develop. So instead we've seen that improvement this year in the WAFL.

Clubs had to reduce list spots, reduce salary cap, and while as a cat b rookie Schlensog could have been retained, they mustn't have had the long-term faith he would be best-22.

Good players have been cut before, and it isn't always hard to pick them. Jarryd Lyons is my favourite example of that, but I can refer people back to Ben Keays who was top-5 on my draft board in his draft year, killed it in the NEAFL for Brisbane, and just needed an opportunity to play midfield and got that for Adelaide and now I could make the case he's their best midfielder.

So if guys are good enough, I wouldn't rule out delisted free agents, nor would I rule out state leaguers, even if they've had several AFL opportunities (Sam Menegola third time lucky with Geelong), or guys going to their fourth clubs (Martin Pike).

It's about going for high conviction plays and backing yourself in. Whether you're making a financial decision in terms of what you're investing in, or whether you're deciding as list manager what decisions you're going to make. You always need to go with your highest conviction plays and back yourself, even if others don't share your same belief in whoever it is you've identified. That just means opportunity.

And I can even look at my own draft board every year for examples of that. Whether it's Jackson Callow who I had top-20 on my draft board last year (undrafted), Tom Green at 3 in 2019 (pick 10), maybe it's Sydney Stack at 22 in 2018 (undrafted), or maybe it's Jordon Butts at 20 in 2017 (undrafted) as my highest conviction calls in those years, and where I had the most radical differences in ratings to clubs.
And I can just as easily rattle of players in Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald who were the two key position players I saw as the best value key position players on the market last offseason.

I'm just one guy and I don't have a recruiting team behind me. So if I'm someone in clubland with the resources and people behind me really critically analysing the opportunities available, if I'm half decent at my job, I'm backing myself and those high conviction plays as I felt with each of those guys in their respective offseasons. There will be the epic misses as I've had with Reece McKenzie and Waylon Manson in their respective draft years, and that's okay and worth it if you rate someone dramatically higher than anyone else does, because it just means you can confidently draft/trade for guys etc who are often times dramatically below what you view to be fair value if you're making your own calls on talent ID and know the talent well enough to be high conviction on your calls.

What makes Schlensog so great this offseason, and I'd say the same with Skinner. They're free shots. They were delisted last year. Easy no cost DFA picks. That's what Collingwood need, and they're in positions in need. Hard to get much better than that when we're in a position where picks are at a premier with the need to match bids on Daicos and possibly Dib also.

 

[Jasper84]

How would you rate the Tom Mitchell trade?

They did well with the Mitchell trade. Doesn't mean that we should discount the other trades done in GW's time. How would you rate the O'Rourke trade?

 

[johncitizen]

Well l gather Daicos will go somewhere in the top 3, so we currently have around 1700 points, and to match a bid in the top 3 we will need ...

Pick 1 — 3000 points — with 20% discount we need 2400

2 — 2517 points — we need 2014

3 — 2234 points — we need 1787

Thank you brother.

 

[magpies42]

I'm no insider, but I'm not aware of anything off-field other than at one moment in time for Geelong one of the more interesting choices I've seen in hair colour.

What's appealing with Schlensog beyond his current level of play is his rate of improvement has been exponential.

With talls, if they're improving rapidly year on year, there typically is great scope to improve remaining and it's also typically an indicator they're putting in work.

Schlensog's story is basically he was with Geelong as a cat b rookie for two years then at the end of his second year (last year) he was cut. All the pre-season reports with Schlensog from that preseason were overwhelmingly positive talking about him as that most improved player and coming on like a freight train to paraphrase. Matthew Scarlett I believe it was at the time spoke up Schlensog in a big way. But of course in 2020 there weren't the opportunities to play. There was no VFL season, so he didn't really get to develop. So instead we've seen that improvement this year in the WAFL.

Clubs had to reduce list spots, reduce salary cap, and while as a cat b rookie Schlensog could have been retained, they mustn't have had the long-term faith he would be best-22.

Good players have been cut before, and it isn't always hard to pick them. Jarryd Lyons is my favourite example of that, but I can refer people back to Ben Keays who was top-5 on my draft board in his draft year, killed it in the NEAFL for Brisbane, and just needed an opportunity to play midfield and got that for Adelaide and now I could make the case he's their best midfielder.

So if guys are good enough, I wouldn't rule out delisted free agents, nor would I rule out state leaguers, even if they've had several AFL opportunities (Sam Menegola third time lucky with Geelong), or guys going to their fourth clubs (Martin Pike).

It's about going for high conviction plays and backing yourself in. Whether you're making a financial decision in terms of what you're investing in, or whether you're deciding as list manager what decisions you're going to make. You always need to go with your highest conviction plays and back yourself, even if others don't share your same belief in whoever it is you've identified. That just means opportunity.

And I can even look at my own draft board every year for examples of that. Whether it's Jackson Callow who I had top-20 on my draft board last year (undrafted), Tom Green at 3 in 2019 (pick 10), maybe it's Sydney Stack at 22 in 2018 (undrafted), or maybe it's Jordon Butts at 20 in 2017 (undrafted) as my highest conviction calls in those years, and where I had the most radical differences in ratings to clubs.
And I can just as easily rattle of players in Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald who were the two key position players I saw as the best value key position players on the market last offseason.

I'm just one guy and I don't have a recruiting team behind me. So if I'm someone in clubland with the resources and people behind me really critically analysing the opportunities available, if I'm half decent at my job, I'm backing myself and those high conviction plays as I felt with each of those guys in their respective offseasons. There will be the epic misses as I've had with Reece McKenzie and Waylon Manson in their respective draft years, and that's okay and worth it if you rate someone dramatically higher than anyone else does, because it just means you can confidently draft/trade for guys etc who are often times dramatically below what you view to be fair value if you're making your own calls on talent ID and know the talent well enough to be high conviction on your calls.

What makes Schlensog so great this offseason, and I'd say the same with Skinner. They're free shots. They were delisted last year. Easy no cost DFA picks. That's what Collingwood need, and they're in positions in need. Hard to get much better than that when we're in a position where picks are at a premier with the need to match bids on Daicos and possibly Dib also.

Thanks for the insight, you’ve got me sold! Dib looks like a very good prospect from what I’ve seen in the VFL against big bodies. Hopefully we pick him up for a junk pick.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

I'm no insider, but I'm not aware of anything off-field other than at one moment in time for Geelong one of the more interesting choices I've seen in hair colour.

What's appealing with Schlensog beyond his current level of play is his rate of improvement has been exponential.

With talls, if they're improving rapidly year on year, there typically is great scope to improve remaining and it's also typically an indicator they're putting in work.

Schlensog's story is basically he was with Geelong as a cat b rookie for two years then at the end of his second year (last year) he was cut. All the pre-season reports with Schlensog from that preseason were overwhelmingly positive talking about him as that most improved player and coming on like a freight train to paraphrase. Matthew Scarlett I believe it was at the time spoke up Schlensog in a big way. But of course in 2020 there weren't the opportunities to play. There was no VFL season, so he didn't really get to develop. So instead we've seen that improvement this year in the WAFL.

Clubs had to reduce list spots, reduce salary cap, and while as a cat b rookie Schlensog could have been retained, they mustn't have had the long-term faith he would be best-22.

Good players have been cut before, and it isn't always hard to pick them. Jarryd Lyons is my favourite example of that, but I can refer people back to Ben Keays who was top-5 on my draft board in his draft year, killed it in the NEAFL for Brisbane, and just needed an opportunity to play midfield and got that for Adelaide and now I could make the case he's their best midfielder.

So if guys are good enough, I wouldn't rule out delisted free agents, nor would I rule out state leaguers, even if they've had several AFL opportunities (Sam Menegola third time lucky with Geelong), or guys going to their fourth clubs (Martin Pike).

It's about going for high conviction plays and backing yourself in. Whether you're making a financial decision in terms of what you're investing in, or whether you're deciding as list manager what decisions you're going to make. You always need to go with your highest conviction plays and back yourself, even if others don't share your same belief in whoever it is you've identified. That just means opportunity.

And I can even look at my own draft board every year for examples of that. Whether it's Jackson Callow who I had top-20 on my draft board last year (undrafted), Tom Green at 3 in 2019 (pick 10), maybe it's Sydney Stack at 22 in 2018 (undrafted), or maybe it's Jordon Butts at 20 in 2017 (undrafted) as my highest conviction calls in those years, and where I had the most radical differences in ratings to clubs.
And I can just as easily rattle of players in Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald who were the two key position players I saw as the best value key position players on the market last offseason.

I'm just one guy and I don't have a recruiting team behind me. So if I'm someone in clubland with the resources and people behind me really critically analysing the opportunities available, if I'm half decent at my job, I'm backing myself and those high conviction plays as I felt with each of those guys in their respective offseasons. There will be the epic misses as I've had with Reece McKenzie and Waylon Manson in their respective draft years, and that's okay and worth it if you rate someone dramatically higher than anyone else does, because it just means you can confidently draft/trade for guys etc who are often times dramatically below what you view to be fair value if you're making your own calls on talent ID and know the talent well enough to be high conviction on your calls.

What makes Schlensog so great this offseason, and I'd say the same with Skinner. They're free shots. They were delisted last year. Easy no cost DFA picks. That's what Collingwood need, and they're in positions in need. Hard to get much better than that when we're in a position where picks are at a premier with the need to match bids on Daicos and possibly Dib also.

PMBangers

 

[JLC]

They did well with the Mitchell trade. Doesn't mean that we should discount the other trades done in GW's time. How would you rate the O'Rourke trade?

This is what I see as a general picture. I dont follow Hawthorn so could be way off the mark.

They were in contention mode - very rarely had top 10 picks. So did not have access to the elite talent of that particular year.

The plan was to still try and get top end talent in the door……so they traded for players previously selected at high end of draft…….those players wer often imperfect (injury history / failed to deliver)…..they backed in their medical department and development people to maximise that talent.

ORourke deal was a risk that clearly backfired……not sure who gws picked up with pick 19.

We are at a different stage in our journey, so GW might be a bit more conservative.

 

[jackcass]

That sort of thinking lost us pick 2 this year. Wouldn't be surprised if we finish last in 2022.

That sort of thinking saw us load up on 5 of the first 31 kids taken in the 2020 draft and ensure we'll still end up with 1 of the top kids in the draft this year.

 

[Quicky]

Not sure who is interested at this stage who is keen but would imagine Collingwood among other teams with KPP needs would be looking closely. Geelong who delisted Schlensog I would expect to be a candidate and may look at him as an upgrade on Kreuger assuming he gets moved. Fremantle have KPP needs at both ends and having played WAFL this year, he may enjoy staying in WA to speculate.

On his game though, and it's analysis of players and how they go about their craft that I focus on. What's special with Schlensog when watching his game is - he tracks the eyes of opposition players to gauge where they're kicking the footy and uses that as his weapon to get into position to intercept to a competition high level when used in defence. At doing that, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone better. And he has the all-around game, with his kick as a bonus particularly good for someone of nearly 2m.

Thoughts on Krueger and Riccardi?