Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

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Be prepared to be disappointed then maybe Hawthorn will split their pick with another club like Fremantle that have a few First Rounders
We don't have to accept any old crap out of Hawks. Swans held Papley when Carlton got too cute with a poor offer in a trade.
Hawks will have to cough up. Baz isn't a free agent. If you're paying 1m+
Their 1st isn't an unreasonable expectation. Draft picks are still a gamble. Baz is a known commodity that brings people through.
If they won't deal others will if he really wants out at least 2 clubs.
We absolutely can play hard on any deal as we will retain without a suitable deal I would think.
 
I want a first rounder this draft. We need to bring in another high talent mid to make up for Macrae, Treloar and Libba when they all depart. I rekon we’ve got 2 a 3 years so Sanders is one and we need one or two more youngsters to develop. Plus a draftee brings all the salary cap benefits as well.
Holmes is a good winger as well though, not just defence. And he is only 21. And we lack outside class, and no one has put their hand up to make wing their own. It would not be a bad move. Especially if English ends up leaving as well. We could walk away with Holmes and a first round pick. Suddenly the midfield looks much better. Mates who are Cats fans rate him highly.
 
I want a first rounder this draft. We need to bring in another high talent mid to make up for Macrae, Treloar and Libba when they all depart. I rekon we’ve got 2 a 3 years so Sanders is one and we need one or two more youngsters to develop. Plus a draftee brings all the salary cap benefits as well.
Always good to bring in young known commodities when you can though, Holmes is only 21.
With how stacked this year is for midfielders I fully expect some that go in the second round who would have gone first round in the 2 years previous.
Not to mention father-son midfielders in 2025 who hopefully maintain their trajectory.
 

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Alot can change from now until then. For example we seen Darcy come from nowhere to be a pick 2 however it also often goes the other way with first round prospects often going latee or undrafted all together.
Rather the splitting picks in 2024 and 2025 I'd rather wait until after the 25 champs and then if they're still rated early, trade out a 2026 first rounder for points.

No point saving up now for something that may not happen.
Yeah I get that, I dunno anything about the kids just I see a lot of people suggest we trade our 2025 first this year because they’ll be high prospects, but that’s more reason to keep the pick. You still need to get the points to pick them up
 
There is no practical scenario in which a player the contract offered by another club makes them one of the highest-paid player in the league does not equate to a top draft pick also being traded. This discussion happens every year and people don't seem to understand that fact. People saying late first here, early second there are surely missing the point?

All the Bulldogs have to do is offer a contract that is simliar to the other club's (even though everyone knows that he wants to leave, or that he might have already declared that he wants to leave), we can put up a show and dance about how we want to keep him, and the other team pays up.

Brisbane paid pick 21 plus their future first for Dunkley. Smith will be a higher paid player than Dunkley next year.
 
Holmes is a good winger as well though, not just defence. And he is only 21. And we lack outside class, and no one has put their hand up to make wing their own. It would not be a bad move. Especially if English ends up leaving as well. We could walk away with Holmes and a first round pick. Suddenly the midfield looks much better. Mates who are Cats fans rate him highly.
Holmes only moved to defence this year because that's where the cats needed him. He is a much better and more natural outside/inside mid and if he gets traded that is where he will play.
I see him as the 3rd best young inside/outside Mid behind only Gulden and Daicos with the benefit of extra hight. I fully expect him to be top 5 per position in 3 years.
 
There is no practical scenario in which a player the contract offered by another club makes them one of the highest-paid player in the league does not equate to a top draft pick also being traded. This discussion happens every year and people don't seem to understand that fact. People saying late first here, early second there are surely missing the point?

All the Bulldogs have to do is offer a contract that is simliar to the other club's (even though everyone knows that he wants to leave, or that he might have already declared that he wants to leave), we can put up a show and dance about how we want to keep him, and the other team pays up.

Brisbane paid pick 21 plus their future first for Dunkley. Smith will be a higher paid player than Dunkley next year.
And the other club will then ask why we were only offering a 2 year deal when they offered 5.
 
Holmes for Baz straight swap. Wouldn't be the worst outcome if that's how it plays out
Player for player swaps especially of high quality players just don’t happen but it would be interesting.

If both players requested a trade I think both clubs would take it, it’s really about as even as you can get for value wise and contract wise.

Im going to hate losing Baz but Holmes would be bloody nice on that wing, really need to start bringing through some more midfielders though. I suppose Bont, Libba, Treloar, Sanders, Macrae can prooobably carry us for another 2 years but would be getting desperate and would want a decent pipeline to take over from them
 
And the other club will then ask why we were only offering a 2 year deal when they offered 5.
You don't think we will be cleverer than this? We'll offer Smith a 5-year deal for 90% of the money that the other clubs are offering him, but only after we can be certain that he has his heart set on leaving up to the point that he gets traded. We played this very game with Dunkley.
 
Holmes only moved to defence this year because that's where the cats needed him. He is a much better and more natural outside/inside mid and if he gets traded that is where he will play.
I see him as the 3rd best young inside/outside Mid behind only Gulden and Daicos with the benefit of extra hight. I fully expect him to be top 5 per position in 3 years.
Would be quite the get but surely he’s a must keep for Geelong.
 
Would be quite the get but surely he’s a must keep for Geelong.
They can't get anywhere close to what rivals are offering so if he stays he will be taking a significant pay cut and much shorter contract. They will be hoping that their luck and history of players staying for unders continues.
 

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It may be just me, but I'd give up Baz and a second for Holmes without even thinking.
And more likely than not - simply by virtue of the fact that Baz will be paid more than Holmes next year, whatever club each player ends up at - that the second round pick would actually go the other way, and we'd get Holmes + a 2nd round pick for Baz.

I simply don't understand why Geelong would prefer to have Bailey Smith, and pay him more money, than Max Holmes for next season. I think it's more likely that Holmes will help produce more wins for his team next year.
 
Who are they paying their cap to?
I'm honestly not sure, they do have 14 players out of contract this year and although some of those will get increases there are also some older guys and Bowes who will be getting pay cuts. All I was told is they're stretching at the moment.
Another reason I'd like to know if their Offer to Bailey pre ACL still stands, I thought all clubs lowered their offers but as we've seen Hawks haven't, current interest from pies would also be interesting.

If I were the cats I'd rather keep Holmes then worry about bringing Smith in.
The comparisons to Judd are over the top buy he will be a star no doubt.
700k for 4 year at cats 900k for 7 from rivals (roughly).
 
On the Smith and Holmes discussion/s, I have two trivia questions:
  • Besides Adam Saad (who was 26 years old at the time) in 2020, who was the last player to be traded between 2 Victorian clubs for a 1st round pick or equivalent?
  • Which was the last 2 club trade involving players both realistically of 1st round value?

I'm not saying it never happens but its very rare for a highly rated kid to move between Victorian clubs, and even rarer for 2 highly rated players to swap clubs in a single trade.

Whilst it does seem that Smith is likely to leave to a Victorian club (and I would bare in mind the unconfirmed pre-draft stories of him being strong against being taken by an interstate club), it would be interesting for Holmes to also move in the same period and I'd suggest zero chance of it being in a single trade involving Smith.
 
  • Besides Adam Saad (who was 26 years old at the time) in 2020, who was the last player to be traded between 2 Victorian clubs for a 1st round pick or equivalent?
  • Which was the last 2 club trade involving players both realistically of 1st round value?
The Ollie Henry/Cooper Stephens/Tom Mitchell three-way trade answers both your questions if somewhat confusing because of the three-way-trade and salary dump elements of the trade made it somewhat confusing.

Callum Coleman Jones went a 2nd rounder (north's so Early 1st rounder) + two years of Robbie Tarrant which with some minor later pick swaps that marginally swings it back to North paying slightly less, still nets out to a late-ish 1st rounder
 
The Ollie Henry/Cooper Stephens/Tom Mitchell three-way trade answers both your questions if somewhat confusing because of the three-way-trade and salary dump elements of the trade made it somewhat confusing.
True, that answers the first question (Henry to Geelong), I had forgotten that one since it wasn't so easy to quantify but I'd certainly call him 1st round value. It doesn't answer the 2nd as I specifically am talking about between just 2 clubs - which require a coincidence of both clubs having players of that value wanting to trade between each other as we speculate in Holmes + Smith direct trades.

Other than Henry and Saad, by my count Stringer in 2017 is likely the last to move between Vic clubs for 1st round equivalent in value (although it was made up of picks 25 + 30) and we know there was a bit to that one given it was club rather than player initiated. Prior to that, maybe Chris Yarran in 2015 for pick 19, also with baggage. It's very rare.
 
I'm honestly not sure, they do have 14 players out of contract this year and although some of those will get increases there are also some older guys and Bowes who will be getting pay cuts. All I was told is they're stretching at the moment.
Another reason I'd like to know if their Offer to Bailey pre ACL still stands, I thought all clubs lowered their offers but as we've seen Hawks haven't, current interest from pies would also be interesting.

If I were the cats I'd rather keep Holmes then worry about bringing Smith in.
The comparisons to Judd are over the top buy he will be a star no doubt.
700k for 4 year at cats 900k for 7 from rivals (roughly).
Lot harder to find sponsors willing to help you circumvent the cap and selling the idea that you're more likely to play in a premiership when you're not actually winning games of football in the most recent season.
 
Sounds like we have a 4 year deal in front of English at about a mil a year. His management seem to want 6 as his last ever hurrah at a big boy contract.

Also I was surprised to hear he’s already on a very good wage so signing him back up isn’t going to be completely breaking the bank.
 
Given we do not have first round pick I would be taking it for Bailey unfortunately that is probably no better than 6 to 10. Sure, Holmes would be good but I doubt we get him.
 
Holmes only moved to defence this year because that's where the cats needed him. He is a much better and more natural outside/inside mid and if he gets traded that is where he will play.
I see him as the 3rd best young inside/outside Mid behind only Gulden and Daicos with the benefit of extra hight. I fully expect him to be top 5 per position in 3 years.
I think he could well become one of the best wingers in the competition, as soon as this year. He has a brilliant combination of speed + skill. I don't think he leaves though, Cats should have plenty of cap space from next year.
 

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