More then happy with that on our end in fact don't think it could be much better,
He only signed a 2 year contract last time when he was starting to take off hence it would've been on decent coin,
Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)
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He only signed a 2 year contract last time when he was starting to take off hence it would've been on decent coin,
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If we're at 4 and Tim is at 6, I'd probably be happy to compromise at 5. He is still just 26, his body hasn't shown any issues at all - he obviously has had concussion issues but I think it's likely concussion related issues will result in payouts being outside of the cap.
I know he hasn't had an outstanding start to the season, but lets not forget how interrupted his pre-season was.
I know he hasn't had an outstanding start to the season, but lets not forget how interrupted his pre-season was.
Could even build in triggers in the fifth year for a sixth if absolutely needed.
He’s a very good player (even if he has some flaws) and by all accounts a good character. Ruckmen tend to hit their straps later and plenty of them still play well in their early 30s (Gawn, Goldstein etc). As long as it’s not stupid money I don’t have an issue.
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Given where the CBA is, it's probably not crazy to suggest that anyone who has an All Australian jacket will be on or around a million a year.
I haven’t seen enough of Holmes recently to comment but we do need to bolster our young midfield stocks. Having a starting midfield stacked with players in their late 20s and early 30s isn’t good.
If Smith leaves I’d be all for using it to get a midfielder with a few years on the clock already to speed up the regeneration.
Libbaaaa
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The Dunkley scenario is unique because he picked a perennial top 4 team who was always going to trade out picks for father son points. Yes the 2 year deal we have reportedly offered isn't our final offer, we'll counter to the other 5 year offers he has but at the end of the day he is out of contract (not a free agent but still), so whoever he nominates he will end up there 99 times out of 100.
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He will end up where he chooses 100% but it won’t be for ridiculous unders as is being suggested, that just doesn’t happen.
23yos just don’t move on multi year million dollar contracts and get traded for unders it just doesn’t happen - if he leaves he will get where he wants to go and we will take a very handy return of top ~8 pick or equivalent (provided the contract offers being sprouted in here are correct and he’s not actually leaving for a 5/$700k deal in reality etc)
Libbaaaa
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It won't be crazy unders but if he goes go the Hawks we are definitely sending something back in exchange for their first round pick. I might be missing something but I'm not sure what the final contract value has to do with the trade if Baz decides he wants to go?
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So reading between the lines it’s looking like English will eventually stay and Baz will go.
We need to turn Baz into a drafting a mid in the top 10ish and move on from the whole debacle IMO.
We need to turn Baz into a drafting a mid in the top 10ish and move on from the whole debacle IMO.
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You are correct. They are entirely different assets when you talk salary cap space and draft picks. They don’t have a direct relationship despite what some will tell you.
Whatever the Hawks offer Smith is their own prerogative. They’ll offer up picks based on what they think will provide them the best outcome.
Breaker breaker.......looks like we got us a convoy
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Presuming Hawks finish bottom 6, I think this is a fair enough outcome for us.
A top 6 elite mid on starting contract for 3 years would be killer for our list. If Baz is gone, adding a 30ish pick to get the deal done is acceptable for mine.
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When has compensation been vastly different to contract size though in the past? They’re always pretty relative to some extent
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Let me tell you a story about Josh Dunkley.
An exception that proves the rule.
Hawks aren't a Top 4 side and likely Geelong isn't either. Also Baz isn't a Free Agent very different starting points
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We got unders for Dunks but I wouldn’t say significantly, his contract is what in the $800 range likely and we received the equivalent of two late first rounders. I’d say that’s somewhat relative whilst on the low side (was a tough one with the circumstances ie high placed team with crap picks and F/S’)
threenewpadlocks
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doggies ftw is entirely correct.
There is a direct correlation between the size of the contract offer for an out-of-contract non-free agent traded player and the worth of the trade picks.
If the contract figures are true, Smith will roughly become a top-50 paid player. That kid of salary always demands at least a top 10 pick, especially if we've managed our salary cap well and in theory could also fit the same contract in our salary cap (while obviously not wanting to).
Keep in mind that players don't nominate clubs in a vacuum. They might want to get to one club specifically, but they a) might still hold some compassion to their past club and don't want to see them get bent over in a trade, and b) fundamentally don't like the idea that the club they're going to does not appear to be fully committed to the them in trade and are willing to risk not having them at all, despite offering the money in the first place. The Dogs can always reject every trade offer and send Smith to the PSD - indeed we may as well do that if whatever club only offers a second round draft pick for him. Smith might rightfully then un-nominate that club and nominate a new one, because he's upset with the club he initially nominated for trying to short-change in a trade.
It's incredibly rare for points a) and b) above, but it has happened, you only have to look at Nick Stevens (in 2004) and Luke Ball (in 2009) for those kinds of examples. The lack of good faith negotiating by both Collingwood and St Kilda in the Luke Ball scenario has scared clubs since (it was an ugly situation that nobody involved in football departments wants to repeat), and clubs pay up in trades generally.
Occasionally you get situations where bottom-barrel teams use the PSD (Jack Martin and Jackson Hately) but that can be viewed through the lens of an equalisation measure ie it can only really work if a team is going from a team that finished higher on the ladder to one lower. GWS kinda got screwed not getting anything in a trade for a 2-year top draft pick in Hately but at least you can say they were screwed by a team that was lower on the ladder than them at the time (equalisation at work).
There are a million comparable examples in recent years. For example, Dylan Shiel was not a free agent, out of contract, and Essendon had to pay up pick 9 + their first downgrading to GWS's second the following year. Bailey Smith is not a recent All-Australian like Shiel was at the time, but his contract will be similar to what Essendon paid to Shiel to outbid other teams, so you can see how we should expect at top 10 pick as a minimum.
There is a direct correlation between the size of the contract offer for an out-of-contract non-free agent traded player and the worth of the trade picks.
If the contract figures are true, Smith will roughly become a top-50 paid player. That kid of salary always demands at least a top 10 pick, especially if we've managed our salary cap well and in theory could also fit the same contract in our salary cap (while obviously not wanting to).
Keep in mind that players don't nominate clubs in a vacuum. They might want to get to one club specifically, but they a) might still hold some compassion to their past club and don't want to see them get bent over in a trade, and b) fundamentally don't like the idea that the club they're going to does not appear to be fully committed to the them in trade and are willing to risk not having them at all, despite offering the money in the first place. The Dogs can always reject every trade offer and send Smith to the PSD - indeed we may as well do that if whatever club only offers a second round draft pick for him. Smith might rightfully then un-nominate that club and nominate a new one, because he's upset with the club he initially nominated for trying to short-change in a trade.
It's incredibly rare for points a) and b) above, but it has happened, you only have to look at Nick Stevens (in 2004) and Luke Ball (in 2009) for those kinds of examples. The lack of good faith negotiating by both Collingwood and St Kilda in the Luke Ball scenario has scared clubs since (it was an ugly situation that nobody involved in football departments wants to repeat), and clubs pay up in trades generally.
Occasionally you get situations where bottom-barrel teams use the PSD (Jack Martin and Jackson Hately) but that can be viewed through the lens of an equalisation measure ie it can only really work if a team is going from a team that finished higher on the ladder to one lower. GWS kinda got screwed not getting anything in a trade for a 2-year top draft pick in Hately but at least you can say they were screwed by a team that was lower on the ladder than them at the time (equalisation at work).
There are a million comparable examples in recent years. For example, Dylan Shiel was not a free agent, out of contract, and Essendon had to pay up pick 9 + their first downgrading to GWS's second the following year. Bailey Smith is not a recent All-Australian like Shiel was at the time, but his contract will be similar to what Essendon paid to Shiel to outbid other teams, so you can see how we should expect at top 10 pick as a minimum.
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Yeah I was being mostly facetious, you're right in pretty much all of what you're saying. I think the tricky thing is convincing people that tomorrows $1M per season is yesterdays $700k per season, so if we walk away from the Bailey Smith deal with a similar array of picks to what we got for say Dunkley, can we really be overly upset?
threenewpadlocks
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What we got in a trade for Dunkley was pretty good in relation to the contract he got at Brisbane, but not necessarily so much to the player he was on the field (an incumbent best and fairest winner who got 14 brownlow votes at a finals team).
Smith will be the reverse - whatever draft picks we get in a trade will probably be unders for what's typical for his contract size (see Dylan Shiel, for example), but probably overs for what he's produced or might produce on the field (he had a somewhat poor 2023 and is coming off an ACL).
Given that, I probably won't be upset with the trade for Smith if that's what we got. Brisbane's future first rounder eventually was a pick in the late teens after they made the GF, but its value was obviously greater than that when it formed part of the trade, there is value in the draft pick at the time of the trade of even the remote possiblity that Daniher and Neale are injured and out for the season R1 and they end up with a top 5 draft pick that gets traded to us or whatever. In the end pick 21 + the 1st rounder probably averaging out to the equivalent to a pick in the early teens (other picks washing out) is roughly worth a pick around pick 7-9 I would say.
For the sake of comparison for their player value at the time they were traded:
Dylan Shiel: 25 years old, 36 career brownlow votes, 21 in the 2 years before the trade
Josh Dunkley: 25 years old, 36 career brownlow votes, 17 in the 2 years before the trade
Bailey Smith: 24 years old, 29 career brownlow votes (which doesn't count excellent finals performances), 14 in the 2 years before the trade.
All of this is to say that Bailey Smith is just a very hard player to quantify value. He's performed in finals, had numerous brownlow-getting games at his age, and plays a unique play style of hard running, link-up play and being extremely coachable to adhering to structures and concentration well. But statistically ... he's a player who doesn't win enough of the hard ball to account for the rate that he turns the ball over by foot, reflected in the AFL Player Ratings average points per game ranking him outside 250 players in the league.
Libbaaaa
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Good points but Shiel was still contracted for another year I believe hence the extra 1st to pry him out.
threenewpadlocks
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Apologies, memory playing tricks on me
English has been one of the highest paid players at the club ever since he came out of his Rookie period... that is why there is a sense that he owes the club... he has been on massive money for the whole time he was developing...
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If offers of 1.2-1.3 over 5 are correct, even if you take say 30% for the new cap (which wouldn’t even work out this way as players who have signed long term deals recently would almost certainly have clauses in their contracts for a similar increase, or at least some increase)
But forgetting that and taking of 30% were still talking roughly $950k in ‘old cap’ terms
Comparables:
Rankine - high pick, 22yo, 48 games - roughly $800k over 5
Traded for Pick 5 & steaknives
Jackson - high pick, 22yo, 7 years @ 900k reported
Pick 13, future 1st & future 2nd for some late picks and Jackson.
Taranto - 7 years 700k reported,
Pick 12 & pick 19
Cerra - reportedly ~$600k
Pick 6 + steaknives
The list goes on and on and on, there is just no world in which Baz signs a 1.2+ contract and we come away with it with a single late teens pick or whatever.
We absolutely would be taking a very high first rounder or equivalent at the least this is just not in question so not sure why we’re all spending so much time on it
But forgetting that and taking of 30% were still talking roughly $950k in ‘old cap’ terms
Comparables:
Rankine - high pick, 22yo, 48 games - roughly $800k over 5
Traded for Pick 5 & steaknives
Jackson - high pick, 22yo, 7 years @ 900k reported
Pick 13, future 1st & future 2nd for some late picks and Jackson.
Taranto - 7 years 700k reported,
Pick 12 & pick 19
Cerra - reportedly ~$600k
Pick 6 + steaknives
The list goes on and on and on, there is just no world in which Baz signs a 1.2+ contract and we come away with it with a single late teens pick or whatever.
We absolutely would be taking a very high first rounder or equivalent at the least this is just not in question so not sure why we’re all spending so much time on it
Libbaaaa
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The jump in dollars won't be the issue with him, all about the years.
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