Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Mofra]

Could even build in triggers in the fifth year for a sixth if absolutely needed.

He’s a very good player (even if he has some flaws) and by all accounts a good character. Ruckmen tend to hit their straps later and plenty of them still play well in their early 30s (Gawn, Goldstein etc). As long as it’s not stupid money I don’t have an issue.

Unlike some rucks, England has forward craft too so if he slows down after 30 he can still play a role.

 

[Mofra]

Yeah I was being mostly facetious, you're right in pretty much all of what you're saying. I think the tricky thing is convincing people that tomorrows $1M per season is yesterdays $700k per season, so if we walk away from the Bailey Smith deal with a similar array of picks to what we got for say Dunkley, can we really be overly upset?

The cap jump from $12.4m in 2022 to $17.5m in 2025 is massive. I'm not sure the football public have quite got their head around it yet.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The cap jump from $12.4m in 2022 to $17.5m in 2025 is massive. I'm not sure the football public have quite got their head around it yet.

A very minor mathematical point as well but the wider salary cap is increasing at a marginally faster rate than the draftee/rookie/minimum contract amounts, which only increases the point that you're trying to make too - mathematically slightly more money available to the roughly two-thirds of your list who are not on one of those deals.

 

[cecil]

I'd be happy with English for 5 years at 900k.

 

[stefoid]

If we're at 4 and Tim is at 6, I'd probably be happy to compromise at 5. He is still just 26, his body hasn't shown any issues at all - he obviously has had concussion issues but I think it's likely concussion related issues will result in payouts being outside of the cap.

I know he hasn't had an outstanding start to the season, but lets not forget how interrupted his pre-season was.

I dont share the tim is s**t view. Hes a mediocre tap ruck, but lets see how he goes this year with our 'changed game plan' - Im hoping it plays to his strengths.

 

[olimauldon]

Worst case is Baz going to the pies

 

[bullish23]

Smith apparently going, and he doing rehab outside the club (which I have never heard of before), would now appear connected?

Or am I completely mistaken?

Whilst English can frustrate, keeping him gives us the best 1, 2 ruck combo in the comp (freo aside maybe), and means more of young Sam clunking them in goal square. Yes please.

 

[go the dogs]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

 

[adogsfan5]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

Whilst he doesn’t have the brand and draw that Smith has, he’s that much better than Smith. I’d be stoked with 5 x 800-850.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

I'd consider it

 

[ossie_21]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

I’d go 7 at 1.2mil a year.

It’s not my money, after all.

 

[cherrypie]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

Completely agree. It’s very risky to invest that much over a long period for a player who might become worthy of 900k, especially on a player that doesn’t play a key position.

Fantasia, Stephenson, Milera, Gresham, Stack etc all looked promising about 6 years ago, just like Holmes does now. He could be great but doesn’t have enough runs on the board for that contract.

 

[blurst]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

In 2022 cap terms, it’s the equivalent of $630k. You don’t think one of the best wing prospects in the AFL is worth that?

 

[Foxman98]

Completely agree. It’s very risky to invest that much over a long period for a player who might become worthy of 900k, especially on a player that doesn’t play a key position.

Fantasia, Stephenson, Milera, Gresham, Stack etc all looked promising about 6 years ago, just like Holmes does now. He could be great but doesn’t have enough runs on the board for that contract.

Outside of Milera who is always injured you've named 3 flakey half forwards and a known red flag

 

[Munnez]

6 years at 900k for Holmes. That's a big pass from me

A ready replacement and likely upgrade on Smith should be leave that is only 21.
Where do I sign?

 

[doggiesin08]

A ready replacement and likely upgrade on Smith should be leave that is only 21.
Where do I sign?

Where does $900k put you the list in terms of highest paid at the club in the new economy. I haven’t seen enough of Holmes but for example is he worth more than Richards?

 

[blurst]

Where does $900k put you the list in terms of highest paid at the club in the new economy. I haven’t seen enough of Holmes but for example is he worth more than Richards?

I really rate Richards, but his position is far easier to replace (and easier to play) than wing. Richards is currently the slightly better player, but Holmes would be worth more due to the positions they play (and his age)

 

[Munnez]

Where does $900k put you the list in terms of highest paid at the club in the new economy. I haven’t seen enough of Holmes but for example is he worth more than Richards?

900k going forward is approximately a 650k now. And a top class wing would add a great deal to our midfield set up.
Holmes has potential growth to his game and I feel would provide as much value as a Richards.

 

[doggies ftw]

I really rate Richards, but his position is far easier to replace (and easier to play) than wing. Richards is currently the slightly better player, but Holmes would be worth more due to the positions they play (and his age)

Mm I disagree with this - Geelong are even playing Holmes in defence currently, if that was the case surely they’d keep him on the wing?

I’d agree if Richards was just a standard half back flanker but he’s so much more than that by being elite for intercept marks. He’s basically a medium defender who can defend, elite interceptor who also has elite pace and skills off half back, you can find one or the other but both in the same package is pretty bloody rare and much much more valuable than a good winger IMO

 

[Mojorisin]

Where does $900k put you the list in terms of highest paid at the club in the new economy. I haven’t seen enough of Holmes but for example is he worth more than Richards?

900k now is not what it used to be. It's only above average now.

Whilst he doesn’t have the brand and draw that Smith has, he’s that much better than Smith. I’d be stoked with 5 x 800-850.

Won't get him for that. Geelong have a contract of 4 years at about 700k. I wouldn't think it'd be worth his while to leave hence why clubs are offering 7x 900k.

 

[cherrypie]

Outside of Milera who is always injured you've named 3 flakey half forwards and a known red flag

That’s exactly my point. At the time they’d shown just about as much as Holmes has

 

[threenewpadlocks]

That’s exactly my point. At the time they’d shown just about as much as Holmes has

Fantasia, Stephenson, Milera, Gresham, Stack were the players you named

Holmes was a 19 touch a game player with about 4 inside 50s. He's a 23 touch a game player with 3 inside 50s.

Fantasia - small forward. Different role. Kicked 39 goals but was getting 13 touches a game in 2017

Stephenson - is an idiot. Bet on his own games. By all reports he's not getting the most out of himself because of his professionalsim/I think he has ADHD or something similar

Milera - 19 and 18 touches a game in 18-19, but more a half back. Tore an ACL. Form was never as good as Holmes has been since the start of last year

Gresham - variously a small forward, half forward and different midfield roles but was arguably an excellent footballer in 2019 (23 touches) and 2020 (22 touches, scaled to time) before tearing his Achillies in R3 2023 after getting 28 and 29 touches in the opening two rounds. Then was getting 23 touches a game in 2022 before a slightly down year last year. He shown as much but I think you're underselling how much of a decent footballer he is. Issues were more with injury and St Kilda trying to find a role for him rather than if he's a good footballer. Holmes is out and out a wing so not the same issues

Stack - same reasons he was initially overlooked in the draft were the same reasons his career flamed out - personal issues. COVID breach

Not to disagree that these players showed promise but flamed out, but if you examine case by case, it's always due to professionalism/mental application, injury, or role definition/slightly different role.

Clearly part of Holmes' implied value is that he's a durable, hard working/professional player, who will slot into a clearly defined role on the wing - above and beyond the stats he provides. Which is why he's commanding the salary he is. None of the examples you gave had those three elements which would add to those players' value.

 

[doggies ftw]

It’s all down to attributes, a lot of those guys whilst maybe having flash in the pan seasons had pretty severe flaws in their games.

Holmes attributes for the modern game are fantastic, speed, penetrating kick - and the rare one, inside/outside ability. When you get a player with his outside game whose just as comfortable on the inside, yeah they’re usually stars.

Also have to remember these contracts will be based on the assumption he continues to improve this year, if he stagnates or goes backwards the deals will change pretty quickly. So they’re not just based on one season etc

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It’s all down to attributes, a lot of those guys whilst maybe having flash in the pan seasons had pretty severe flaws in their games.

Holmes attributes for the modern game are fantastic, speed, penetrating kick - and the rare one, inside/outside ability. When you get a player with his outside game whose just as comfortable on the inside, yeah they’re usually stars.

Also have to remember these contracts will be based on the assumption he continues to improve this year, if he stagnates or goes backwards the deals will change pretty quickly. So they’re not just based on one season etc

It's why Smith is getting paid what he is. Irrespective of his existing mental health elements, irrespective of how he's had significantly varied form - is viewed as having traits that modern coaches want that there are very few players in the AFL. He takes direction from the coach well, he motors on for the whole game, he understands how to play a variety of roles, he helps coaches make life easier in playing certian tactics. I think the contract amounts are a clear overpay, but at the same time, you can see the logic in the fact that there are some elements of his game - however difficult they are to measure - that are as good as anyone in the league does them.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Is Holmes a soft tissue injury risk/ history or am I imagining that cause he's fast.