Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[MaxiBont]

I see that VDM has resumed his role as this boards villain de jour.

People seem to forget that he was playing some pretty good football until he tapered off over the last third of the season.

The biggest knock on him around these parts is his lack of composure.

Well I see your VDM. And raise you a RILEY GARCIA.

Feel like he tapered off more over the last three quarters of the season.

 

[Mofra]

Arty surely deserved a two year contract. But I’m glad we have him locked in. Big year coming up for Arty. Think he is best 22.

Energy guy and a ripping bloke.
I'd be happy to keep him if he wasn't best 22.

Injury free he takes a McNeill/VDM pressure forward spot.

 

[Chops]

So what if it’s a poor draft we are going no where is we don’t turn the list over.

 

[Zeno The Great]

I can tell U 100% that buku will request a trade, at this stage carlton the most likely, not st Kilda.

 

[_Cerberus_]

So what if it’s a poor draft we are going no where is we don’t turn the list over.

Because it will make us worse not better. In a weak draft, with little draft capital and little on the FA market. Making mass changes for the sake of it, will more likely see us with less experience and skill at our bottom end. The whole point of turnovers, aside from being mandatory. Is to improve the best 22, and push those fringe 22 players back, where we will end up with stronger depth than the year before.

We ain't improving the team stocking up on a bunch of late round speculative picks in the draft who are at high odds to be delisted in two years, than make it as a regular best 22 player. You have to balance it out. If it was a strong and deep draft year, we had a few picks to trade, and there were a few quality trade/fa targets, then by all means make deeper cuts.

Also this draft is extremely compromised. We will be lucky to even have two picks in the top 40, assuming we ride with what we have. Our first round pick will be pushed back to where top four teams normally end up making their picks at, and our second pick will probably be the equivalent of a third round pick.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Because it will make us worse not better. In a weak draft, with little draft capital and little on the FA market. Making mass changes for the sake of it, will more likely see us with less experience and skill at our bottom end. The whole point of turnovers, aside from being mandatory. Is to improve the best 22, and push those fringe 22 players back, where we will end up with stronger depth than the year before.

We ain't improving the team stocking up on a bunch of late round speculative picks in the draft who are at high odds to be delisted in two years, than make it as a regular best 22 player. You have to balance it out. If it was a strong and deep draft year, we had a few picks to trade, and there were a few quality trade/fa targets, then by all means make deeper cuts.

Also this draft is extremely compromised. We will be lucky to even have two picks in the top 40, assuming we ride with what we have. Our first round pick will be pushed back to where top four teams normally end up making their picks at, and our second pick will probably be the equivalent of a third round pick.

If there are so many picks occurring before our natural pick 10 or 11, with the new DVI system wouldn't there by definition have to be multiple picks between our natural pick 10 and 28 be used to match those very picks in the top 10? I'm not sure that our 2nd round pick gets pushed back a bunch because for every pick in the top 10 that pushes the picks back there'll have to be 2 picks in the 20's or whatever used to match them.

You can't stack junk picks in the 30s and 40s like you used to be able to. Picks in the 20's will have to be used to match top 10 picks.

 

[Proffessor]

Considering he was injured for the first 6 months or so that means he has until the first half next season to prove himself then.

It doesn't work like that.
As a player with a contract for next year he will get a bit more time to try to prove himself, but it certainly won't be easy.
Given that we have just taken a couple of similar type players in the recent mid-season draft, and Bevo has been openly talking up trading in a mature proven KPD, his window of opportunity looks to be rapidly closing, if it hasn't closed already.

I think he desperately needs to have a great preseason and show dramatic improvement by early next season.

 

[_Cerberus_]

If there are so many picks occurring before our natural pick 10 or 11, with the new DVI system wouldn't there by definition have to be multiple picks between our natural pick 10 and 28 be used to match those very picks in the top 10? I'm not sure that our 2nd round pick gets pushed back a bunch because for every pick in the top 10 that pushes the picks back there'll have to be 2 picks in the 20's or whatever used to match them.

You can't stack junk picks in the 30s and 40s like you used to be able to. Picks in the 20's will have to be used to match top 10 picks.

That is correct. But aside from the handful of clubs that will need to point chase to get their guy rated higher up than their points they have on hand. Most clubs will be able to stay put and be able to use their standing pick to grab someone, many clubs also are happy to take points hits for picks outside of the first round, at the sacrifice of their much later picks. So it will cancel out somewhat. There is like around 15 projected FS and NGA picks or something.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Considering he was injured for the first 6 months or so that means he has until the first half next season to prove himself then.

I take your point but Busslinger has been fit enough to have already played 49 VFL games in his career. I don't even remember him having any injury whatsoever to miss VFL games over the last three years and, just to throw an example out there, opportunity to develop e.g. playing 4 VFL finals over the last two years (development opportunities not given to other draftees in other clubs who don't make VFL finals...)

Even if his fitness around the time of his very first pre-season was somewhat injury impacted, wouldn't that be offset by the fact that he's been very fit to play games ever since he recovered by that? We have to be fair in both regards. It's not as if he's lacked continuity over three years at VFL level that can be used as a reason for his lack of development, because he's been more or less consistently fit for three years of the playing season as a listed player, while others have had injures that have stunted their development once the season has actually begun.

 

[Proffessor]

You keep saying draft position like it is relevant to how quickly a KPP develops. It is irrelevant. You draft because you believe in that player's prime (24-26 years old at the minimum for most cases), they will become a very good player. He is still so far off that, that to say it's his "final shot" is crazy. I understand people see first round draft pick and think he needs to be more developed and ready to go earlier and people then have less patience with them, but that is not the case. You draft for they develop into, not for what they can give you when they are 21.

Draft position is highly relevant.
For starters, it shows the significant investment of the club in a player's initial recruitment, it also indicates whether they are or aren't a late bloomer. Early picks obviously displaying significant levels of ability and potential to warrant high investment at draft age.

High draft picks typically also get looked after a little better due to the high level of initial investment. Clubs like to make sure they give such players ample opportunity for their investment to pay off.

Just because taller players peak later doesn't mean they get a free pass until their mid-twenties before they are expected to perform. They need to show signs that they will indeed develop into a regular senior team member. Spots on AFL lists are rare and valuable commodities; players need to continually show that they are worthy of their list spot. If their development potential becomes questionable then so does their hold on that spot.

 

[BLACAE]

I truly don't get people's happiness with Jones's 1 year contract. He offers nothing at any level.

AFL:
4.5 disp
1.3 Tackles
7.3 pressure acts
3 defensive pressure acts

VFL:
5 Goals 5 behinds from 8 games
15 disp
2.4 Tackles.

I can't see him making it.

Compare it to Dahlhaus' season 1 - 3.
Season 1:
11 games
11 goals 7
15 disp
4 Tackles a game

Season 2:
17 games
13 goals 18
17.5 disp
4 Tackles

Season 3:
22 games
28 goals 18
16.7 disp
4 Tackles

 

[0utsider]

I can tell U 100% that buku will request a trade, at this stage carlton the most likely, not st Kilda.

I’d be holding him to his contract personally. Plenty of avenues to him playing a good amount of footy next year.

Croft is exiting but clearly not 100% ready so probably doesn’t play every game and might be trialled down back, big question marks over Jamarra plus he’s first cab off the rank if we get an injury to one of Naughton or Darcy.

 

[Sid Nullis]

Can see the blues

I can tell U 100% that buku will request a trade, at this stage carlton the most likely, not st Kilda.

Can see the blues wanting Buku with Curnow likely going to the swans

 

[doggiesin08]

Because it will make us worse not better. In a weak draft, with little draft capital and little on the FA market. Making mass changes for the sake of it, will more likely see us with less experience and skill at our bottom end. The whole point of turnovers, aside from being mandatory. Is to improve the best 22, and push those fringe 22 players back, where we will end up with stronger depth than the year before.

We ain't improving the team stocking up on a bunch of late round speculative picks in the draft who are at high odds to be delisted in two years, than make it as a regular best 22 player. You have to balance it out. If it was a strong and deep draft year, we had a few picks to trade, and there were a few quality trade/fa targets, then by all means make deeper cuts.

Also this draft is extremely compromised. We will be lucky to even have two picks in the top 40, assuming we ride with what we have. Our first round pick will be pushed back to where top four teams normally end up making their picks at, and our second pick will probably be the equivalent of a third round pick.

I don’t think second round will be pushed back much. With the new points system it won’t just be a pile of junk 3rd rounders being used to match bids.

Edit: sorry, just saw threenewpadlocks already expressed the same point more clearly.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I don’t think second round will be pushed back much. With the new points system it won’t just be a pile of junk 3rd rounders being used to match bids.

Edit: sorry, just saw threenewpadlocks already expressed the same point more clearly.

Yeah I forgot that they had made some changes. So it will be interesting to see how the overall effect of it turns out. Still annoyed about the first round being compromised as though. Hopefully pick 10 doesn't drop back too much.

 

[doggy_dog]

Tigers thinking about selling Balta apparently. Not sure he’s the right fit for us but I can see us having a sniff.

Would prefer Ben Miller if we are looking at Tigers scraps. He’s still young and very competitive.

Fully aware this is unpopular but I’m fine with us having a look at Balta. Looked really good down back when the Tigers were good, yes it was a few years ago but he’s only 26.

Comes with question marks obviously but worth considering for mine

 

[Golden_6]

Surely we’re seriously enquiring about Steven May

1

Steven May

Age

33

Ht

193cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

307.3

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

12.1

5star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

378.4

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

given it appears he’s on the way out?

It’s not a long term solution but we’re in the window right now and gives us time to develop JOD & Buss. It’s exactly what we need if we want to contend in the short term.

 

[iambrilliant]

Fully aware this is unpopular but I’m fine with us having a look at Balta. Looked really good down back when the Tigers were good, yes it was a few years ago but he’s only 26.

Comes with question marks obviously but worth considering for mine

If we could get them to pay half he’s salary I’d be interested

 

[grassman75]

A 1 year deal for Artie is funny, seeing some of the 2-3 year deals we've charitably dished out over the last few years.

I rate AJ. And one year is fair! No issues with it. Now let's see that same scrutiny applied to others.

Was going to say injury history….but that doesn’t cut it….maybe Jones asked for a 1 year deal to keep himself hungry and push for a better contract next time?

 

[go_sports_team]

Surely we’re seriously enquiring about Steven May given it appears he’s on the way out?

It’s not a long term solution but we’re in the window right now and gives us time to develop JOD & Buss. It’s exactly what we need if we want to contend in the short term.

I thought this briefly yesterday, then gave myself an uppercut.

There was a video out there yesterday of him ignoring his captain's post game speech and distracting other players during it. Seems like such a major flog. Not sure he'd pass the "no dickheads" policy, but also, maybe that's a good thing?!

 

[adogsfan5]

Butts and Silvagni for me.

 

[iambrilliant]

Butts and Silvagni for me.

I feel like this is a no brainer for the dogs

 

[adogsfan5]

We’re already linked (via opinion) to May today on herald Sun.

 

[DueWest]

They’re both not good enough draft Dovasten get Flea back Dolan improves don’t need to see Garcia VDM nor McNeil

They have both had their chances and played probably 2 good games each this year.
They don’t improve our side.
Just poor list management extending them for so long, particularly VDM

 

[DueWest]

We’re already linked (via opinion) to May today on herald Sun.

We may as well extend Jones for 12 months, same outcome both look cooked