Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Doggy]

Nah but funny how the people calling him special even though it's apparently too early to tell aren't the ones being called Kornes and two bob crap journos

It's too early though he will likely be solid at least. It's stupid to judge either way at this point, just like all those numpties saying who "won' the draft.

Those judging Sanders harshly are probably basing it on what was paid to get him rather than the fact we also got Croft

 

[BomToydd]

It's too early though he will likely be solid at least. It's stupid to judge either way at this point, just like all those numpties saying who "won' the draft.

Those judging Sanders harshly are probably basing it on what was paid to get him rather than the fact we also got Croft

Think you're in the wrong place if you don't want people giving their opinions on list management. It's not stupid and sitting on the fence is boring

Are they judging Sanders or the list managers for paying the price they did to get him?

 

[King Harold]

If Sanders turns out to be as good as Daniel Cross I will be very happy. He is the type of player that Sanders could be if he increases his intensity around the ball and probably more importantly - when he doesn’t have the ball.

But let’s be honest, very few clubs spend a high-end, first round pick on slowish inside mid with limited foot skills.

He is a far better kick than Cross BD.
Crossy couldn’t kick over a jam tin.

 

[Doggy]

Think you're in the wrong place if you don't want people giving their opinions on list management. It's not stupid and sitting on the fence is boring

Are they judging Sanders or the list managers for paying the price they did to get him?

What is stupid is if you are writing him off already. He's 20.

 

[BomToydd]

What is stupid is if you are writing him off already. He's 20.

Dude grow up. Stop calling people stupid because they have a different opinion

 

[Doggy]

Dude grow up. Stop calling people stupid because they have a different opinion

Didn't call you stupid. I said writing a kid off at 20 is stupid.

 

[MrChristo]

...but would you rather Reid's 6.3 clangers and 4.5 turnovers a game for more metres gained but LESS score involvements. (Sanders 5.4 to 4.3).

Or we could compare Reid's 340m gained per match to Sanders' 160m.

You're willingness to leap to a conclusion without full assessment is admirably consistent.

 

[stefoid]

Only because I've got a bit of time to kill on a Sunday afternoon...

Or, you could compare apples and apples.
It was the 2023 draft. We couldn't pick Josh Ward.
So compare Sanders to those who are relevant.
Windsor taken next pick. Definitely a more outside player, but "statistically" (which seems to be your argument) is well down on Sanders pretty much across the board.

Who's a more comparable player? Let's take Harley Reid. The clear #1, who again we had no access to.
Almost identical disposals.
Reid edges Tackles 3.5 to 3.0.
Reid big edge in Contested Poss and Clearances, explained almost entirely by where each player in on the ground.
Reid 59% cba's for the year, Sanders 10%.

Sanders' effective disposal is over 80%. Elite. (Safe, you might say...
...but would you rather Reid's 6.3 clangers and 4.5 turnovers a game for more metres gained but LESS score involvements. (Sanders 5.4 to 4.3).

I mean, we could play these black/white comparison games all day. Some might be fair comparisons, most won't.

Funny how we universally see the Kornes model as cringe (*), but we all [myself included] tend to have a bit of; I-was-rightest-firstest, about us, don't we.

(*) Word of the week, brought to you by the AFL news cycle and media saturation. (Because we all believe each Draft pick takes each team by surprise and therefore need a full final 3 minutes of research to make a decision).

Id be comparing him to the other Reid, who almost certainly would have been selected by us had we not used the pick on
Sanders in the previous year. Not to put down Rhylee, but as an example of opportunity cost.

This discussion isnt judging Sanders as such, he had no say in being drafted, its about talent identification and risk taking by our club. We paid like we were getting a sure thing.

 

[Dogsfan1]

Dude grow up. Stop calling people stupid because they have a different opinion

How about u grow up and stop writing off a 20 year old

 

[weltschmerz]

can we just close the trade thread for a few months instead of having this irrelevant bullshit

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Id be comparing him to the other Reid, who almost certainly would have been selected by us had we not used the pick on
Sanders in the previous year. Not to put down Rhylee, but as an example of opportunity cost.

This discussion isnt judging Sanders as such, he had no say in being drafted, its about talent identification and risk taking by our club. We paid like we were getting a sure thing.

Yep. Three picks in the teens for Sanders.

And this whole "but we also got Croft who is as good as a draft pick in the teens" also doesn't really prove it for me - as Gold Coast have just proven, there are far more effective ways to get the points for bid matching to be able to materialise a pick in the teens out of thin air.

Compared to all 17 other teams, we've generally been good at trading, opportunistic (the Treloar trade was a masterstroke, for instance), and taking advantages of other teams' mistakes. Not one of the best, but certainly above average. That doesn't meant that doesn't include some bad trades like the Pick 6 one though.

 

[stefoid]

Yep. Three picks in the teens for Sanders.

And this whole "but we also got Croft who is as good as a draft pick in the teens" also doesn't really prove it for me - as Gold Coast have just proven, there are far more effective ways to get the points for bid matching to be able to materialise a pick in the teens out of thin air.

Compared to all 17 other teams, we've generally been good at trading, opportunistic (the Treloar trade was a masterstroke, for instance), and taking advantages of other teams' mistakes. Not one of the best, but certainly above average. That doesn't meant that doesn't include some bad trades like the Pick 6 one though.

I dont feel like the trade was bad - it (currently) looks like bad talent identification.

If Sanders looked like a star, its all good

 

[threenewpadlocks]

How is he tracking below expectations through two years of the average, expected value you get out the draft pick?

National Draft Pick #5 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Change the URL for pick 6, 7, 8. etc.

Look at the post-covid era as relevant for how teams are good at talent identification and development - before it it's a bit of a different comparison.

In the rough draft pick and the rough play style (ie, not a developing tall), it's clear that Sanders has performed in the bottom half of all of these types of players through two years. That is, if you simply bunch together the 10-20 players and rank them in terms of AFL output through 2 years (ie, just an all-in-one metric such as SC score/AFL Player Ratings Points).

Again, that's not to say that he can't turn into a very good player - look at Josh Ward who has a similar (but slightly better) first few years, ie, slightly disappointing for draft position early in his career, before breaking out this year, his 4th on a list. But obviously, there's some correlation for players who go on to have a good career and having a good first two years. But at some point past performance is a reflection of future performance, to some extent.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Do they have to be? Can't have a full team of A graders.

It's not as much about if any given player will be a star or not, but what they reflect about overall list management (the title of this thread), ie, the marginal gains you make every time you make a list management decision over time as you strive toward a flag in the future.

Not ever player will be an A-grader obviously but if you get a B+ grader instead of a B grader, a B grader instead of a C+ grader, that makes a premiership slightly more possible.

 

[BomToydd]

How about u grow up and stop writing off a 20 year old

What's his age got to do with anything? Are 20 year old footballers not allowed to be criticised?
All those undrafted teenagers were effectively written off

And no one's writing him off anyway. Can't believe how controversial it is to say I've see nothing to suggest he will be special lol. No one's saying he should be taken out the back and be put down

 

[BomToydd]

can we just close the trade thread for a few months instead of having this irrelevant bullshit

Bit dramatic just because some can't handle anything but praise of our players and list management

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Bit dramatic just because some can't handle anything but praise of our players and list management

Can't be discussing past trades and list management strategy on the trade and list management thread, can we?

 

[weltschmerz]

Can't be discussing past trades and list management strategy on the trade and list management thread, can we?

Is "Sanders is shit and won't make it" on repeat really about list management?

 

[BomToydd]

Is "Sanders is shit and won't make it" on repeat really about list management?

You're being hysterical. No one has said that

 

[weltschmerz]

Realistically I think Sanders ends up on the trade table at the end of this year and whether he ends up elite or not isn't going to be our issue in the long term.

 

[BomToydd]

Can't be discussing past trades and list management strategy on the trade and list management thread, can we?

No way haha and no negativity allowed!!

 

[iambrilliant]

Realistically I think Sanders ends up on the trade table at the end of this year and whether he ends up elite or not isn't going to be our issue in the long term.

I think he ends up as currency for the butters trade too

 

[BomToydd]

I think he ends up as currency for the butters trade too

Might have trouble getting him to agree to a trade anywhere else if he wants to get to Tassie in a couple of years

 

[iambrilliant]

Might have trouble getting him to agree to a trade anywhere else if he wants to get to Tassie in a couple of years

Your probably bang on mate . I’m a sanders fan boy and would love him to stay but I get the vibe he’s not in love with the doggies and most likely jumps across to Tassie

 

[DiamondDogs8]

Hard to write off an inside mid who is 20 and has had very little exposure in his preferred role.

He’s played well enough in various roles to remain positive but no doubt he has a couple of wrinkles in his game he’d want to iron out.

We all wanted young midfield talent but get upset when he can’t get CBAs over some of the best in the competition. We have an aging midfield and will reap the rewards in time if we can retain him.

Libba and Treloar might hang them up as soon as next year. Don’t write him off just yet.