Trade our first pick..?

[Turbocat]

Firstly before I'm hung drawn and quartered , I'm not totally advocating the trade of possibly our best pick in 15 years, in the best draft in 5 years if not one of the best drafts ever. I’m simply floating an idea based on the principles on Contrarian investing.

The stockmarket is a funny place , one would think that a stock’s worth could be determined to a reasonable degree, worked out based on the income it can deliver today and the potential growth for the future etc. , but an important part of any stocks worth is determined simply by the psychology of the market. Booms and busts can be sector or market wide and sentiment and emotion can greatly effect price. Obviously things like the economy play a part but quite often the market has seen huge and rapid ups and downs based on nothing other than a stampede mentality. When a stockmarket is going down , the logic of a stocks soundness can be forgotten and very good business can be valued for less than it’s intrinsic worth.

Its here that certain stockmarket gurus, talented men who are brave enough to not run with pack can do extremely well. Investing against the trend is termed being “Contrarian” and legendary investment Guru Warren Buffet runs his company Berkshire Hathaway on these principles. When people sold Gillette down to silly levels , he studied the balance sheet etc. but one of his key motivators is for him to understand the core of any business he is interested in. So, looking at what Gillette sells and with a simple philosophy that everyday men all over the USA , if not the world wake up and shave , no matter what the investment markets variation’s , he bought against the trend and waited for the market to come back to him. When the market took Coke Cola to silly levels again he bought it. A $10,000 investment into Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett took control in 1965 would be worth over $50 million today. By comparison, $10,000 in the USA stockmarket index , S&P 500 would have grown to only $500,000.

My rather long winded point is investing against the trend can be a winning strategy.This draft’s reputation for talent is no secret. Early draft picks in this draft will be deemed to be worth extreme amounts because every club will visualise themselves picking up another Chris Judd. We have lucked out because our “Chris Judd” in coming to us a R3 pick in the form of Tom H and it gives us the option of looking at alternatives.Which alternatives? Who knows but what if North offered Daniel Welles , what if Richmond offered Tambling , who knows maybe them plus picks …

It would have to be an unusually good deal but I’m sure there will be lots of options that will be on the table come the end of the season.
Consider - an immediate injection of a ready to go, slick talent like Welles , meshed with guys like Bartel and Corey and maybe Varcoe kicking it long to a fit Dog Johnson and Ottens and young guns Nathan A and Tommy H, sure doesn’t sound to shabby to me. Now I know there is talent in this draft , super talent but IF the deal is good enough ,really good enough, this is one alternative I think that’s worth consideration!

 

[IDGAF]

Heard your a bit light on for big men so No. 1# pick for Trent Knobel.... done deal

 

[thehoff]

TC,

So basicaly what you are suggesting is that us as the members attempt to get as much cocacola together and trade it for the number 1 pick and if 30 years, we'll have a premiership?

 

[Go_Ramjet!]

Thanks for the plagiarism Turbo.
I think the essence of all good investments is a well researched and balanced decision. Either way, no matter how well a trade or a draft is measured there is still no predicting the outcome years in advance, and then throw in the human factor (injuries etc.) and anything could happen!

 

[Kent_Kingsley]

stop calling him DOG johnson.............its not cool it just makes u look like a try-hard gangsta

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Depends where you think the club is at in terms of a tilt at a flag....or what stage of development.

 

[D0nk]

stop calling him DOG johnson.............its not cool it just makes u look like a try-hard gangsta

No, that would be DAWG Johnson, very different.

 

[Scarlett Fever]

Interesting thoughts Turbo Cat. Sydney have already won a flag with the contrarian view and there key player was a big bloke traded for in the last "super" draft. They have a different recruiting strategy then the trend and until they won a flag a different game plan to the trend. Now it looks as if a few have followed the game plan or atleast trying to implement it during different stages of a game.

For what it is worth, if we get a pick that can nab a powerful key position player or a complete package midfielder then we should keep it. I think there will also be many higher finishing sides who will be willing to give up apick 13-16 for a quality player. Therefore a pick 7 for a pick 15 and a quality player may also be on the cards.

I don't subscribe to the theory we already have one quality player so we can afford to trade away a quality pick for a quality player. It just makes no difference to how the first pick should be used.

But personally I reckon trading is a fools game and I would keep the pick pretty much regardless to whats on offer. You have to remember that when a player is traded the club trading the player is placing a bet that the player will not perform to his perceived value and the club trading knows more about that player than the club receiving him.

Just like the stock market you are competing against inside traders.

 

[Soupy]

See: North Melbourne.

See: Brad Ottens.


We wont be trading our picks.

 

[scottydeewah]

I dont know about the first pick. But the fact that this draft is being known as very deep I would be more than happy to trade our second pick away for an established player of the sort of Nathan Thompson ilk.

 

[Jack-Packenham]

If we happen to finish 10 and have pick 7, could we trade pick 7 and our second pick 25 along with a player (Enright or S Johnson) for pick 1 or 2.

 

[catempire]

Turbo, all options should be considered, including trading our first pick. The chances of it actually happening, are very slim IMO. There would have to be a very promising key position player (or speedy on-baller) become available for us to even consider it, and that doesn't happen too often. We wouldn't give up the pick, for example, for Richard Tambling just for the sake of being contrary.

Jack, no one will trade down their pick for SJ given his dodgy ankles.

 

[Partridge]

Consider - an immediate injection of a ready to go, slick talent like Welles , meshed with guys like Bartel and Corey and maybe Varcoe kicking it long to a fit Dog Johnson and Ottens and young guns Nathan A and Tommy H, sure doesn’t sound to shabby to me. Now I know there is talent in this draft , super talent but IF the deal is good enough ,really good enough, this is one alternative I think that’s worth consideration!

In theory not bad, but let's go through who you've named:

Wells - has yet to perform consistently for North. Overrated.
Bartel - has stepped up. Gun.
Corey - our best midfielder.
Varcoe - has not played 1 senior game, the jury is still out.
Steve Johnson - will never be fit.
Ottens - solid but won't be dominant.
Nathan Ablett - long way to go, if he makes it.
Tom Hawkins - as great as the reports are, totally unknown quantity. Could be another Cameron Roberts.

I don't mean to be doom and gloom but the reality is a lot of guys we're expecting to become superstars aren't there yet, and some - Steve Johnson - probably never will be. Draft picks are like gold. We should not give them away. We certainly don't need Wells or Tambling. Whose places will they take?

 

[Jack-Packenham]

Wells - has yet to perform consistently for North. Overrated.
Bartel - has stepped up. Gun.

Not a biased call.....

Would love to have Wells playing on the outside of Bartel. Wells would be the equal of Corey and Bartel and would be better than the rest. (Ling, Enright, Kelly, Byrnes, Tenace)

 

[catempire]

If Wells is the equal of Corey and Bartel I'm watching a different game.

 

[chapmanmagic35]

See: North Melbourne.

See: Brad Ottens.


We wont be trading our picks.

You have expected too much from Brad Ottens...believed the media obviously!

 

[Jack-Packenham]

If Wells is the equal of Corey and Bartel I'm watching a different game.

Yeah your probably right, hes probably better than both of them.

 

[catempire]

Yeah your probably right, hes probably better than both of them.

Any credibility you had left is now gone.

 

[Partridge]

Not a biased call.....

Would love to have Wells playing on the outside of Bartel. Wells would be the equal of Corey and Bartel and would be better than the rest. (Ling, Enright, Kelly, Byrnes, Tenace)

No he wouldn't. Does he average 25-30 possessions a game at the bottom of packs like Corey and Bartel do? Somehow I think not.

 

[thehoff]

Yeah your probably right, hes probably better than both of them.

Bad call Jack.

 

[Jack-Packenham]

No he wouldn't. Does he average 25-30 possessions a game at the bottom of packs like Corey and Bartel do? Somehow I think not.

How many times do you see Bartel and Corey get the ball on the wing, run 40 metres, have a couple of bounces and kick a goal from outside 50. Never.

If any of you guys looked at what I wrote, I said Wells would be great to play outside of Bartel, that means they are DIFFERENT players. Sure Wells does not get 25-30 possies a game because he is not an in an under player. Joel Corey gets 25-30 kicks a game but so does his opponent who is 40 metres away from him. Daniel Wells has a guy holding his jumper for the entire game every week.

How many goals does Scarlett kick each week. Does that make him any less of a player than Ken McGregor or Mitch Harn.

 

[catempire]

How many times do you see Bartel and Corey get the ball on the wing, run 40 metres, have a couple of bounces and kick a goal from outside 50. Never.

If any of you guys looked at what I wrote, I said Wells would be great to play outside of Bartel, that means they are DIFFERENT players. Sure Wells does not get 25-30 possies a game because he is not an in an under player. Joel Corey gets 25-30 kicks a game but so does his opponent who is 40 metres away from him. Daniel Wells has a guy holding his jumper for the entire game every week.

How many goals does Scarlett kick each week. Does that make him any less of a player than Ken McGregor or Mitch Harn.

Man, you're really losing it. You said Wells is better than both of them. That's what is being disputed.

 

[Jack-Packenham]

Man, you're really losing it. You said Wells is better than both of them. That's what is being disputed.

Do a poll on the main board and ask unbiased supporters who they would recruit to their club if they had the choice of Wells, Corey and Bartel. Then come back to me and tell me who's lost the plot.

 

[Partridge]

Daniel Wells has a guy holding his jumper for the entire game every week.

And I suppose this never happens to Corey, or Bartel, or Ablett? Wells is talented, but is also soft, flashy and inconsistent. Just because the media fawn all over him doesn't mean he's the best player in the comp.

 

[tomthetiger]

I agree, Wells is potentially better than both of them, whether you like to admit it or not. At the moment he isnt playing anywhere near to his full potential. However, if I had to recruit one of the three, id take Wells and hope my coach could tranform him. Bartel wouldnt be far behind however.