Triple J Hottest 100 - 2019

jack 23

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I did some hunting around just a note for next year. apparently 100-4 is pretty well known within the whole ABC team (they have to do prerecorded shit, call artists etc) but the top 3 is a bit tighter. They can work out who's top 3 by elimination and obviously Sicko Mode and Losing It were well price so they got smashed when this info got out. They probably covered all 3 artists and still made money.

I guess that explains why Losing It shortened so much but didnt actually win.

Just worth knowing for next year, the songs that shorten like that on the day of the Hot100 are likely to be in your top 3.
 

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Thanks for all the discussions everyone.

Was quite the struggle on the punt this year (for me at least)....for two reasons I think:

* the odds weren't anywhere near as generous this year
* the tunas weren't anywhere near as accurate this year

My 'profits' came from just two results basically:

* Confidence number one (and I was certainly losing mine as the day wore on)
* Sunflower ahead of Clothes I slept in and Clarity

Managed to get the better odds on both of those....hence the 'profits'

Still a great day...even though I couldn't help but feel 2018 wasn't the greatest year in music.
 
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$13. Then slipped to $7.50 straight after I got on. Ended up about $2.50 I think.
Nice mate. I wrote that one up and got some at 13 and 11. It was still value at $2.75 on game day. Didn't expect CISI to drop out completely though.

I see someone copied the bet and put Sunflower to beat other similar songs. I got a little on that one too.
 
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Nice mate. I wrote that one up and got some at 13 and 11. It was still value at $2.75 on game day. Didn't expect CISI to drop out completely though.

I see someone copied the bet and put Sunflower to beat other similar songs. I got a little on that one too.
Jaydon....thank you for requesting that market my good man. Much appreciated yeahahahahah
 
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Nice mate. I wrote that one up and got some at 13 and 11. It was still value at $2.75 on game day. Didn't expect CISI to drop out completely though.

I see someone copied the bet and put Sunflower to beat other similar songs. I got a little on that one too.
Haha cheers for that. I was the one that copied the bet to beat similar songs, I thought it was a great idea and couldn't believe the value, Beteasy were following warm tunas a little too closely and that was the perfect bet to exploit that. Turns out neither were ever in doubt, I don't think any of the other songs were within 50 spots of Sunflower.

Wish I'd backed these bets in even more, the build a bets nearly all came off. One I requested was All the Stars to beat Fire/Church/Like People/Mantra, which opened at $21 so I doubted myself and only put about $15 on. That was about as tight as you can get though.
 

Gibbsy

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For those interested here are a few of the big slips from Warm Tunas to the actual count. Probably proves it is no longer an accurate representation??

(this is all just done manually so I may have missed a few)

Dinosaurs #3 > #9
I'm Good #5 > #14
MANTRA #8 > #45
Like People #15 > #47
Labrador #23 > #88
You Can Count On Me #27 > #93
Clothes I Slept In #28 > #118 (90-spot drop!)
Molotov #31 > #75
Clarity #37 > #76
Ivy (Doomsday) #42 > #94
Wonderful Life #54 > #119
Polygraph Eyes #56 > #99
Hereafter #62 > #161 (99-spot drop!)
How to Socialise and Make Friends #63 > #113
Further than the Planes Fly #68 > #105
Smile #72 > #163 (89-spot drop!)
Ten Leaf Clover #73 > #190 (117-spot drop!!)
For Your Love #76 > #117
Lavender Bones #87 > #191 (104-spot drop!)
Viv in the Front Seat #89 > #193 (104-spot drop!)
Alchemy #94 > no appearance in top 200 (at least 107-spot drop!)
Friday Forever #96 > #195 (99-spot drop!)
Let It Slip #99 > no appearance in top 200 (at least 102-spot drop!)

If anything these trends replicated last year with a lot of the heavy/punk acts slipping extremely far because their online support is more pronounced and less appealing to the mainstream voters.
 

NotAMagpieBogan

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Like People - DZ Deathrays to finish 11 to 20 @ 5.00
1950 - King Princess to finish 11 to 20 @ 3.00
6 Australian songs in the top 10 @ 7.50
Drake 2 song in top 50 @ 4.50
All Ocean Alley songs to be odd number @ 6.00

They are the bets that I placed this year. Only win was drake. I don’t bet often and all the money that I put on was just money that I had won on last years Hottest 100, that I just hadn’t withdrawn yet. Not anywhere near as good as last year, but it still makes it a bit of fun.

The Drake bet was the only one I was actually confident on anyway. I was happy with the DZ bet originally, but my hopes slowly went away. I knew the 6 Aus songs in the top 10 was going to be tricky when Mantra went so early, but Billie Eilish was giving me hope... until Turn was played just outside the 100. The Ocean Alley bet was just a bit of a novelty, which was lost after number 100 lol.
 
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For those interested here are a few of the big slips from Warm Tunas to the actual count. Probably proves it is no longer an accurate representation??

(this is all just done manually so I may have missed a few)

Dinosaurs #3 > #9
I'm Good #5 > #14
MANTRA #8 > #45
Like People #15 > #47
Labrador #23 > #88
You Can Count On Me #27 > #93
Clothes I Slept In #28 > #118 (90-spot drop!)
Molotov #31 > #75
Clarity #37 > #76
Ivy (Doomsday) #42 > #94
Wonderful Life #54 > #119
Polygraph Eyes #56 > #99
Hereafter #62 > #161 (99-spot drop!)
How to Socialise and Make Friends #63 > #113
Further than the Planes Fly #68 > #105
Smile #72 > #163 (89-spot drop!)
Ten Leaf Clover #73 > #190 (117-spot drop!!)
For Your Love #76 > #117
Lavender Bones #87 > #191 (104-spot drop!)
Viv in the Front Seat #89 > #193 (104-spot drop!)
Alchemy #94 > no appearance in top 200 (at least 107-spot drop!)
Friday Forever #96 > #195 (99-spot drop!)
Let It Slip #99 > no appearance in top 200 (at least 102-spot drop!)

If anything these trends replicated last year with a lot of the heavy/punk acts slipping extremely far because their online support is more pronounced and less appealing to the mainstream voters.
Fisher #6 > #2
Sunflower #80 > #27
Sicko Mode #11 > #3
Billy Eilish when the party’s over #48 > #8
Mantra #8 > #45
Praise the Lord Asap Rocky #53 > #13
Changes definitely similar to last year, except more extreme it seems. Is this because there was a lower sample size? These kinds of songs are usually filtered lower down the rankings by the time voting has closed. They also said there was a higher international vote this year I think, although not sure of what significance? That's the only explanation I can think of for Party Over/ASAP/Sicko Mode/Losing It getting a boost, none of them fit the typical mould of a song popular with mainstream voters. Also interesting that bands like Hockey Dad/Skeggs/DMA's as well as Ocean Alley to an extent polled well above their tuna rankings which I didn't expect. Most of it was quite predictable though.
 

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freo_leo29

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Losing it was huge at Festivals this year and Triple J seemed to have a bigger presence at all festivals (They teamed up with Origin this year which would be the biggest festival in Perth)

My feed was full of people shocked/disappointed that losing it hadn't taken the crown, maybe it was bigger in Perth than elsewhere
 
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