Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020

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thewitness

All Australian
Jan 5, 2012
662
430
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Victory
Pretty good day. Eillish & Lime Cordiale in the Top 15 the big money maker of the day. Also pulled in a bit on exactly 1 Drake, 3 Eillish, 5 Lime Cordiale.
 

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ronpingwins

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2013
1,624
2,900
AFL Club
West Coast
Spacey promo there. Did they do anything when Tangerine came on?

glass animals comes 2nd and gets a promo beforehand.

then they call spacey after number 1?

thoughts?
Again, promos for all the other contenders but nothing for the winner. Seems odd they didn't call SJ but does this mean a promo of an earlier ranked song is a sign they haven't won, not just the phone call?
 

JJJason

Draftee
Sep 23, 2020
12
7
AFL Club
Collingwood
Again, promos for all the other contenders but nothing for the winner. Seems odd they didn't call SJ but does this mean a promo of an earlier ranked song is a sign they haven't won, not just the phone call?
Yeah I think that theory’s more likely. Hope people didn’t start cashing out because of the non phone call...


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

TheJanuaryMan

Club Legend
Jul 29, 2009
1,524
2,259
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Wonder which century Unibet will pay out my HW winnings.

Are they waiting for a re-count?
Don't rule anything out with them. I've posted my story on here before about a Most Disposals bet which hadn't been resulted over an hour after the game when the winner was 5 disposals ahead of 2nd. When I rang up about it the "manager" on the phone tried to tell that - if they wanted to - the company could and would "re-watch a game 2 or 3 times to verify a Most Disposals bet if we want to"".

I told him not to even try that kind of stuff on me and to go back and read their own T&C's about Most Disposals bets and how they will result on official AFL stats.

It was paid out 5 minutes later.
 

ye olde mole

Debutant
Oct 2, 2013
138
111
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Someone here, cleverer than I, suggested Birdz would beat Running Red Lights in a head to head at around $4.10. Great tipping there.
Off topic somewhat - am listening to the hottest 100 from 2000 on JJ

triple J used to be a lot noisier. A lot noisier.
 

jack1231

Senior List
Oct 13, 2020
169
134
AFL Club
Geelong
I actually think warm tunas was pretty bang on this year. You just need to try and understand the bias. Its alot easier in hindsight obviously.

The lower total votes (2.7mill) had a fair bit to do with it too. If we had that knowledge before the count (they didnt tell us which sucked) we could of applied it . i.e lime cordiale, spacey will do alot better due to their committed fanbase having a greater influence. metal bands also wouldnt slide as much etc.

I withdrew 11k from my accounts but I reckon about half was my original stake. Not as good as previous years, but given I couldnt pick the winner out of 4 artists (I had money on all 4 at good odds) Im happy with that.

Before the teaser of 350 votes between 1st and 2nd I was sitting on a 5.5k profit just for Heatwaves win alone, I ended up cashing out about a grand worth of bets though to hedge more onto Booster Seat. tbh Im glad I did it looked like a booster upset was on the cards all day, SJ's predicted verse actual rises were like 150% which is phenomenal. Lime Cordiale once again rose like crazy - twice in a row now so are the real deal.

Cleaned up on Pointsbet H2H's they had no limits and odds were overs. Sportsbet slowly ruining this event for us though. most of us heavily restricted and the odds are dreadful.

Im signing out for the year need a break from music betting. looking forward to brownlow in a few months. Anyone feel free to send me DMs through the year on any songs you think are potential contenders... Managed to get on Heatwaves in July which is the main reason I made any profit this year. Happy to work with others on identifying a winner !
 

ronpingwins

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2013
1,624
2,900
AFL Club
West Coast
I actually think warm tunas was pretty bang on this year. You just need to try and understand the bias. Its alot easier in hindsight obviously.

The lower total votes (2.7mill) had a fair bit to do with it too. If we had that knowledge before the count (they didnt tell us which sucked) we could of applied it . i.e lime cordiale, spacey will do alot better due to their committed fanbase having a greater influence. metal bands also wouldnt slide as much etc.

I withdrew 11k from my accounts but I reckon about half was my original stake. Not as good as previous years, but given I couldnt pick the winner out of 4 artists (I had money on all 4 at good odds) Im happy with that.

Before the teaser of 350 votes between 1st and 2nd I was sitting on a 5.5k profit just for Heatwaves win alone, I ended up cashing out about a grand worth of bets though to hedge more onto Booster Seat. tbh Im glad I did it looked like a booster upset was on the cards all day, SJ's predicted verse actual rises were like 150% which is phenomenal. Lime Cordiale once again rose like crazy - twice in a row now so are the real deal.

Cleaned up on Pointsbet H2H's they had no limits and odds were overs. Sportsbet slowly ruining this event for us though. most of us heavily restricted and the odds are dreadful.

Im signing out for the year need a break from music betting. looking forward to brownlow in a few months. Anyone feel free to send me DMs through the year on any songs you think are potential contenders... Managed to get on Heatwaves in July which is the main reason I made any profit this year. Happy to work with others on identifying a winner !
Yeah it was actually pretty accurate this year, understanding that some songs were overrated due to some sources eg Phoebe Bridgers and XS votes mostly coming from Twitter and weren't played on Triple J. It was definitely noticeable that the heavy bands didn't slide as far this year, pop songs didn't rise as much (The Weeknd only rose 10 spots), a lot of the unearthed artists did really well too, Sycco-Dribble is pretty much a no name outside regular jjj listeners, but only dropped 3 spots to 29. I wouldn't be surprised if Triple J cleaned up the vote spamming a little bit, it was interesting seeing how Ruel went, it seemed his fans were going hard still online but his songs were spread out and in realistic positions, just someone with a big fanbase. It's possible they had something to stop counting people voting for the same songs 20 times. The lower vote tally definitely seemed to come from a lot of commercial voters missing though, it really was dominated by the laidback Australian bands like Lime Cordiale, SJ, Ocean Alley etc.

I never had anything on SJ but the value wasn't there to get on late when it was clear it was Heat Waves v SJ. It was pretty much a coin toss given how close it was. It was clear it was those 2 as soon as Straightfaced came on. Was deep into HW at that point so pretty lucky. The Pointsbet H2H's were amazing, not crazy odds but the combination of no limits and the odds not changing regardless of how much I put on is pretty rare. Loading up on On our Own to beat Smith Street at $2, Criminals over Architects and a few others easily covered my expenses. Pretty much given up on Sportsbet now, there were a couple of decent BYOs but when you can only get $5 on a bet what's the point. As you say, getting on Heat Waves early is where the profit came from and with the way the markets are, getting on early when the odds are way out and the bookies aren't paying much attention to the market yet is the way to get ahead. Keeping an eye out for what Gang of Youths and Flume of course are going to release.
 
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ronpingwins

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2013
1,624
2,900
AFL Club
West Coast
looking back at our posts on the first page we were pretty spot on back in November. ronpingwins
Yep, called all the contenders. Even Flume as a filler vote and Ball Park being up there. Reading the social media about it at the time it was pretty clear they would be up there. Everyone was talking about Spacey Jane, saying they were going to be similar to Lime Cordiale last year and have multiple songs up there was pretty accurate, attracting all the Triple J core votes. Can't say I saw WAP coming though, I wasn't sure it would be top 50.
 

ronpingwins

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2013
1,624
2,900
AFL Club
West Coast
Someone here, cleverer than I, suggested Birdz would beat Running Red Lights in a head to head at around $4.10. Great tipping there.
Off topic somewhat - am listening to the hottest 100 from 2000 on JJ

triple J used to be a lot noisier. A lot noisier.
The Birdz call was great. Had a feeling closer to the count that the Avalanches would be similar to PNAU last year, or Vampire Weekend last year, releasing a signature song but were older bands transitioning to Double J a bit and not really in the minds of the young voters and underperforming.

It was pretty clear at the top end it's a more chilled, laidback vibe on Triple J now. That combo of Lime Cordiale back to back, then back to back Mac Miller before more Lime Cordiale again really stood out.
 

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