Analysis Up To The Bye

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Black2Blue

Premiership Player
Aug 15, 2013
3,943
10,299
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Blues at Etihad
Sydney at the SCG (6 day break)
Tiges in Hobart
Cats at Etihad
Hawks at Etihad (6 day break)
Crows in Adelaide (6 day break)

Although the Blues should be number 9 on the W column, the test begins in the run up to the bye. Probably a good time to look at how we are tracking for the next 6 games.

I wouldn't see the last fortnight as much of a gauge but the resting of players, the drop off in intensity, and the burst of injuries has changed the picture a bit.

My take on things?

1. In defence of our defence
After copping early criticism, our defence is looking good recently. Taz has been top class all year and LMac a bit of a revelation. JMac, Wright and Spud have been steady. But the great thing has been the return to form of Thommo and Ats and with BMac having an impressive first game back, this is a big positive.

2. Depth is deep
The injuries and resting has given opportunities to Wood, Daw, BMac, Nahas, and Mullet and none look out of place, with Wood, BMac, and Maj showing more than enough. And with the other second tier players, Dumont and Black, in good form in the 2s, we look like we have good cover.

3. Return of the 2 weeks
The injuries have been slowly creeping up on us, with Anderson, Garner, and Turner all happening without much fanfare. But with Higgo, Wellsy, and Wrighty all being hit, we are all getting ourselves prepared to jump into panic mode. Wells and Wright come in for the Swans (he says nervously). Higgo becomes a finals wildcard. The question is whether the 3 hammies (Garner, Anderson, and Turner) are all tracking at the same rate or if one of them will be ready by the Geelong game.

4. Class crisis
The Higgins knee and Wells achilles might be the difference between a flag or an early September. Although reading the word 'achilles' today has raised the blood pressure, I'm still assuming (hoping) Wellsy in being managed for an SCG return. The loss of Higgins is hurting big time. Take those 2 out and we are short on match winners.

5. Well managed 8 & 0
Undefeated on top of the ladder coming off 2 games where we have been in second gear, giving Spud a spell, Goldy a reduced load, and a bunch of players a bit of a chance to recharge. We haven't been in a position like this for decades and look well prepared for the tough run ahead.

With all the debate over whether we are the real deal or not, be curious to hear what the brethren/sistren expect from the next 6 weeks, especially as we face 3 of the potential premiership contenders.

Personally, would rate a victory over the Hawks as a priority, but would love to burst the Cats' bubble too. I could see us dropping the Swans game, especially as they are at home, have an extra day's rest, and the revenge factor after the finals loss last year. Carlton and Tiges are must wins. Crows a 50-50.
 

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Blues at Etihad
Sydney at the SCG (6 day break)
Tiges in Hobart
Cats at Etihad
Hawks at Etihad (6 day break)
Crows in Adelaide (6 day break)

Like your posts B2b. :thumbsu:

Mostly I think it depends on who the closest competitors are for top positions at the time. At the moment for me that means that the Sydney & Cats wins are genuine 8 point games that we need to set ourselves for. We can starve a competitor and (hopefully) increase our lead over those chasing our heels. The 6 day break into Hawks into 6 days to Adelaide might mean we have to roll the dice somewhat there and take the win we think most likely.

Blues, Tiges and potentially Hawks we probably need to treat as expecting to win and put them away. Cats / Crows more of a 50/50 at the moment but things can change quickly.

We need to get some more class and disposal into this team pronto and at least prior to the Cats game as I think that will be the difference. Liked what Bmac brought to our team - a lot hinging on getting Anderson / Garner / Turner back. Wells critical, but also critical later in the year.
 
Up until today's shitful news I would have thought 14-0 was possible.

Nekminit 10-4.

Beat Carltank and Tigers.

The rest are losable after watching the past 2 weeks of patchy shitefulness.
Baby bathwater, have a bex and a lie down.

Would happily take that now....pencil in wins against the Blues and Tiges and split the wins against the other 4. We would still be on top or at least top 2. Would 16 wins usually lock in a top 4 spot?

16 for top 4

18 and we'd likely be looking at 2nd given Geelong's draw.

TBH I don't want us to win the minor premiership, last time we did an entire season was wiped for history. 2nd would do nicely.
 
Would happily take that now....pencil in wins against the Blues and Tiges and split the wins against the other 4. We would still be on top or at least top 2. Would 16 wins usually lock in a top 4 spot?

Close to but it depends. I think the critical thing is to take games from those competing teams. We don't want to play a top 4 Sydney team away in a final, same for West Coast. Geelong / Hawthorn less of an issue but safest to just be finishing 1/2 yeah?

TBH I don't want us to win the minor premiership, last time we did an entire season was wiped for history. 2nd would do nicely.

No idea what you're talking about. o_O
 
Like your posts B2b. :thumbsu:

Mostly I think it depends on who the closest competitors are for top positions at the time. At the moment for me that means that the Sydney & Cats wins are genuine 8 point games that we need to set ourselves for. We can starve a competitor and (hopefully) increase our lead over those chasing our heels. The 6 day break into Hawks into 6 days to Adelaide might mean we have to roll the dice somewhat there and take the win we think most likely.

Blues, Tiges and potentially Hawks we probably need to treat as expecting to win and put them away. Cats / Crows more of a 50/50 at the moment but things can change quickly.

We need to get some more class and disposal into this team pronto and at least prior to the Cats game as I think that will be the difference. Liked what Bmac brought to our team - a lot hinging on getting Anderson / Garner / Turner back. Wells critical, but also critical later in the year.
Cheers for that.

At least we have the bye and a 17 day break after the Adelaide game, so they can leave it all out on the field. It will also probably be a time to make the most of our depth, assuming we are without too many injuries by then.
 
Cheers for that.

At least we have the bye and a 17 day break after the Adelaide game, so they can leave it all out on the field. It will also probably be a time to make the most of our depth, assuming we are without too many injuries by then.

West Coast away after the break? Yeah. Smash it then set ourselves for West Coast. A dominant performance away against WC would have them in all sorts I think. Unable to win in Melbourne and less confident at home would not be a pleasant feeling for them.
 
Close to but it depends. I think the critical thing is to take games from those competing teams. We don't want to play a top 4 Sydney team away in a final, same for West Coast. Geelong / Hawthorn less of an issue but safest to just be finishing 1/2 yeah?

Yep.

We should be aiming for 17ish wins

From here if we win
- our home games on the map
- the games at our home ground in Melbourne

we get there.

Here is some analysis I did of our run home from a few weeks ago

The only thing that we have missed is finishing top 4 after the Home and away. Believing that we are going to pull some player from no where to fill gaps that I am not sure really exist is to me a bit fanciful.
Whilst this is not what the thread is about I thought it would perhaps be good to pull apart what games we have left. After 6 rounds the league has settled a bit and we can actually start to get a bead on where some teams are at. Basing this on current form.

Round 7 St Kilda - Etihad - Must win
Round 8 * - Etihad - Must win
Round 9 Carlton - Etihad Must win
Round 10 Syd - SCG - Should set our selves for can win, split
Round 11 Rich - BA - Must win
Round 12 Gee - Etihad - expect a decent contest - Should win
Round 13 Haw - Etihad - Split - see below
Round 14 Ade - Ade - tough road trip
Round 16 Weagles - Perth - TOugh Road trip
Round 17 Port - Etihad - must win
Round 18 Pies - Etihad - must win
Round 19 St Kilda - Etihad - Must win
Round 20 Dogs - Etihad - intersting
Round 21 - Haw - MCG - Split- See BElow
Round 22 - Syd - BA - split
ROund 23 - GWS - Etihad - Must win


Vs Hawthorn, I am very much of the opinion to not discredit a champion team. They seem to be a bit shakey at the moment, whether they can bolster that or not with their kids is really yet to be seen. Our second half of the year games can really set us up.

win both - above par
win 1 lose 1 - par
lose both - not where we need to be.

I would like for us to be quite physical in the round 13 match. Hodge is due back and was seen last week to be really targetted by a lot of the Giants, largely to distract him. I would be doing that again. At the same time I would also be getting our blokes to really boss any of their kids who are not yet solidified in their team. They tend to use us to show the league that they are still the big dog. Well revenge is a dish best served cold.

Outside of the Hawks game I have listed all but 1 of the Etihad games as must win. It is our home ground, I don't care that we share it, we play winning footy there. If we are the real deal we win basically all of our games there this year.

The one I have listed as interesting is the Dogs game. By the return fixture who knows how they will be travelling. I would like a second helping of the phyiscal stuff we dished out last week and another dose of Scott comprehensively out coaching Beveridge. Very winnable game.

We need to at the worst split the games between Sydney.

I would like to win 1 of the 2 interstate trips we have against West Coast and Adelaide preferably we beat West Coast.

We split the Hawks at a minimum.
we split the Swans
We win 1 of Ade or WC

3 wins there

win the must wins and the 50/50 vs Geelong
9 wins

would push us to 18 or there abouts.

Or second half of the year is more difficult in terms of opponents. We play harder/better teams more frequently. Also play a couple of hard games interstate.

I suggest we manage some players vs * and Carlton in order to really set ourselves for the Swans.

I suggest we manage another couple against Richmond and really set ourselves for the Geelong and Hawks and Adelaide games.

Winning these early games where we believe that we can spare a player the game and still win we do that. management of players through the year to ensure that we can really set our selves for the crunch games and continue to win against sides we should beat, this will be critical.
 
Really have to make sure we don't drop games to Carlton or Richmond. I'm worried about both these games because we have played like s**t the last 2 weeks. We need to show up or we will risk a spot in the top 4 by losing those games.

Blues
Sydney
Tiges
Cats
Hawks
Crows

I really can't see us beating Sydney up there, just think they play the SCG too well and they will have their entire midfield fit and firing for for the game against us. They'll be fired up considered we knocked them out last year too.

Cats I think is a genuine 50-50 game. A win would go a long way to securing a top 4 position I'd think.

Hawks is hard to read. The Hawks like us, have injury concerns but they have still managed to get wins along the way. Again a 50-50 game.

Can't see us beating Adelaide over there...when was the last time we did?

Say we lose to Swans, Hawks and Crows.

That will still leave us sitting pretty 11-3. If we however drop back to 10-4 then top 4 is going to be a challenge considering how tough our run home is.

We also CAN NOT AFFORD to get smashed during this period. We can not have any big 60-80 point losses like we've had in previous seasons. With our % being so average a big loss could be the difference between a double chance and not getting one.
 

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You don't think Daniel Wells has been the difference Rd 1-7.

Ok

I think that he has been and will always be a valuable player for us.

I also believe that we can and will win games without him.
 
i expect us to lose a couple given the injury toll lately, but we'll still be top 4 after that run which is all that matters.
 
Blues at Etihad - Saturday Night (Fox)
Sydney at the SCG - Friday Night (Ch 7)
Tiges in Hobart - Friday Night (Ch 7)
Cats at Etihad - Saturday Night (Ch 7)
Hawks at Etihad - Friday Night (Ch 7)
Crows in Adelaide - Thursday Night (Ch 7)

Welcome back to the big stage North. We haven't been here since 1999.
 
How can everyone be so positive about the northerners winning so many upcoming games? I am very worried and did my homework the other night and worked out we won't win another game between now and the bye, and thats next years bye too, well maybe not but it all looks dark to me.

Bolton's Blues are flying, Horses bloods will be out for the blood if the hawks beat them this week, the tigers are on a roll of one win in a row and that will be two after beating the doctors over there, then the cats, they will get the cream, which brings us to the Hawks the best team in the last 40 years, before we play the crows at the other over there where they never drop a game except against the cats.

I said this to my psychic the other day and he said p'raps I should give the football away but I said I can't do that because I'd have to find something else to worry about and that would be very hard. He gave me a strange look I must admit.

I told my cousin Sebastian about this but he just smiled at me, he smiles a lot. (a bit like Uncle Paul who used to smile at little boys a lot before he left for overseas in a hurry one day)

Anyway have a look at my logic on the northerners. If it doesn't come quickly then put it in your back pocket and sit on it for a while.
 
Fear no one.....thats my analysis. Great teams over come injuries, players are fighting for spots and they should play accordingly. Wells , Firrito and maybe Goldstein later on ( month b4 the finals ) will be rested. We have an abundance of players wanting / itching to have a crack.
Hold the faith folks !!
 

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