Upside- Hard to quantify but....

[Pollywaffle]

With the surprise win of hawthorn over the pies- another so called 'genuine contender' It got me thinking about an often poorly considered form guide... UPSIDE I would call this the potential for improvement left in a side before the september crunch. For instance The saints whilst undoubtedly excellent I believe have very little upside ie Not many players out who can walk back into the team, A lot players playing at their absolute best, A lot of luck with injuries and team consistency Good luck to them..but

Lets look at the cats

They have a number of players arguably a little short of form, with the yips or just cruising who can improve a lot when the business end of the season approaches

*Mooney sleeping giant (cant keep missing like that all the time can he?)
*Stokes... Dont write him off yet, a smart and hungry little dude
*Hawkins ( A sleeper too? will soon awake No doubt great upside but needs to get his skates on)
*(Harley) ??? lets give him the benefit of the doubt
*Jimmy.. waiting for september
*Corey.. Cruising but still good (see above under jimmy)
*Ling .. A little underdone ( see above)
*Scarlo .. Probably cruising. Hard to tell he's so good even in cruise mode
*Ablett.. Scary but I think he is being rested a bit and still getting 35odd touches a game
* Players like Kelly , Mackie or Milburn (and maybe Wojo) who do their job but can bust a big game on occasions

Injured players to return... Some useful guys here

Johnson
Ottens

And I do think that the coaching staff have a few more tricks in their bag than last year

So bring it on.......

 

[KardiniaPark]

Id be a bit surprised if we won this year. There just seems to be something missing. Mooney isnt a sleeping giant , he's more like the giant in a 3 month coma at the moment

 

[CF]

I think there does seem to be a different mindset amongst the players this year. I am not sure the improvements will be so large. A few players may be starting to pass their prime? Time will tell how it all works out.

 

[winty]

I get the feeling that if we do manage to get up and win the flag this year, it will feel a lot sweeter than it did in 2007. There are a lot more teams who are legitimate challengers this year, and we're not the best team going around at the moment, St.Kilda is, so all the pressure will be on them come finals time, especially if they go into the finals 22-0.

With a raft of players having a week off to get over little niggles in the last fortnight, it seems we're well placed for a serious assault on the flag this year. If we start stringing four quarter performances together over the last month and a half of the season, then look out.

 

[BIGANT]

I mentioned it in another thread that with the competion amongst the top 4/8 closing the gap on the cats, that if we get that far and and beit the saints/doggies/pies or whoever in the granny against us that if the boys get up and win it they will savour it oh so much more than 07.

 

[Belisarius]

Geelong is no longer the seeming certainty to win a flag this year as it was at the beginning of the season, but no one can doubt if Geelong plays well for most of a game they will win more often than not. Geelong just needs to make sure the players are fit and ready to go come finals because regardless whether you think they are getting past their prime they are still good enough on their day to crush an opposition.

With a few more plans and a willingness to make a few tactical moves on the day - and with no more injuries, Geelong has as good as chance as any of the 4-5 main contenders this year for the premiership race.

 

[BIGANT]

Geelong is no longer the seeming certainty to win a flag this year as it was at the beginning of the season, but no one can doubt if Geelong plays well for most of a game they will win more often than not. Geelong just needs to make sure the players are fit and ready to go come finals because regardless whether you think they are getting past their prime they are still good enough on their day to crush an opposition.

With a few more plans and a willingness to make a few tactical moves on the day - and with no more injuries, Geelong has as good as chance as any of the 4-5 main contenders this year for the premiership race.

Yeah dead right...most of us while not getting off the cat's chances at the minute are pessimistic that it's going to be alot more even come finals time.
Being that, if we can get everyone up and ready to rumble by finals time that there is no better side in the comp than us, where exciting to watch, hard at the contests and a good example of how to play this fine brand that we call aussie rules.
Take away the 1st quarter in the saints game, and i dont think any side will get near us like the way we clawed our way back into that match.
Our ruck strategies & forward efficiency are going to be our biggest 'mission impossibles' to get right by the end of the minor round.

 

[CF]

I agree BIGANT, if we hit the finals this year like we did last year we will lose the Prelim. So the current strategy by the club is right. If we are to have a chance this year we will need to bring the A game to every match (in the finals). No easy rides this year.

 

[bigdroppunt]

i think a few of you are buying into the media infulence abit to much.... we have only lost 2 games for the season and are going to manage our players and try out new things on our way to finish in 2nd place...really we will have no idea how our club/players are really going untill the 1st final that can knock us out....which could be in the 2nd or 3rd week of the finals....we have already done enough to make it..

keep a little perspective

 

[markr]

Sorry about intruding on the Cats board, but I actually think you guys are still looking very good for the premiership. You would have beaten the Saints but for a terrible umpiring decision in the dying seconds, and have SJ (and possibly Ottens) to return to that side.

Add to that you've got plenty of finals experience and you're using that experience to prepare for the finals now by resting players (and presumably doing other things behind the scenes like structuring your training blocks and stuff).

It just seems from the outside that the Cats are quietly doing what is needed to win in September, while the Saints are getting giddy about a winning streak.

 

[cat in sydney]

Sorry about intruding on the Cats board, but I actually think you guys are still looking very good for the premiership. You would have beaten the Saints but for a terrible umpiring decision in the dying seconds, and have SJ (and possibly Ottens) to return to that side.

Add to that you've got plenty of finals experience and you're using that experience to prepare for the finals now by resting players (and presumably doing other things behind the scenes like structuring your training blocks and stuff).

It just seems from the outside that the Cats are quietly doing what is needed to win in September, while the Saints are getting giddy about a winning streak.

Love your thinking. Let me tell you, we're all hoping that's exactly the case!

 

[catswhiskers]

Geelong is no longer the seeming certainty to win a flag this year as it was at the beginning of the season, but no one can doubt if Geelong plays well for most of a game they will win more often than not.

Agree Belisarius. I think though that we all know there is no such thing as a certainty. Just being in the best possible "knick" come finals.

Remember that in 2007 we were lucky(?) to hold the pies in the prelim. In 2008 we were challenged by the Bullies and the Hawkers got over the top of us in the end.

Finals are about giving yourself the best chance. We will have a second chance and will play at home (MCG). We are well placed to have another tilt at the flag. Saints Cats Bullies and 4th placed team if Victorian will all have a good chance to win. Hawks will be a threat if they make it because that will mean they will have beaten 5 top teams in six weeks.

 

[Belisarius]

Geelong have a lot of upside as the season rumbles towards the finals - from the known information available -

1. Geelong will get back players over the next few weeks - including Ottens. Just having an experienced crew on the ground in the finals will help GFC be successful.

2. If GFC get to the GF - it will be at the MCG - a big, open field that does not stop rain or some winds. Geelong is probably the best wet weather, poor weather day team in the AFL. Handball and run are more effecive ways to move a ball on a bad weather days. The more space for Geelong's mid-field to operate in the better. GFC wins games really on the back of their mid-field prowess (less so in 07 when Egan and Scarlett were in full flight) - so the more space, the more rotations thru the middle and the more open the corridor is - all the better for Geelong.

3. Some players you would expect to play better as the games pass with the finals coming. Wojo, Harley, Mumford and Hawkins. If GFC can get just 10 % more out of these guys than their usual performance for the season in the finals - it would make a difference to the overall performance to the team. Play Wojo on the wing and say 'run' and be positive, Harley needs some weeks to get up as his last 2 matches were very ordinary but is a good player and leader when in form, Mumford is looking better each week to me. Sure he did not have great opposition but hs second efforts and his willingness to use his body and have a red hot go - will see another 5 games give him a bit experience in the big time he needs to just do a bit more consistently. He is learning and learning fast to use his body. Hawkins I hope will be used in the ruck and swapping with Mooney at CHF. The more space Hawkins gets the better. Will be a confidence player until he believes he belongs. So have him spend some time away from FF and getting touches. Could make him a bigger contributor to the team - and will take some overhead marks in the middle of the ground that will help make Geelong stronger in mid-field.

4. The reserves may make the finals now so GFC could have then playing all the time the seniors are in the finals as well. Good to have the possible replacements playing at he same time, as in 07. What form and what shape a potential replacement is in can be better assessed. Options potentially are Hogan, Gamble, Gillies, Lonergan, Djerkurra, Blake and DJ. A reasonable group to select from if all are playing in a winning reserves side. Depth.

5.Play Kelly more on the ball - as that is his best and most effective position. This allows Ablett to play a bit more time rotating thru FF.

6. Corey to play on the HB line. Good contested ball winner, gut runner and with some height. His absence from the mid-field allows Kelly to play more in the mid-field role.

7. Rotate up to 4 players thru FF. Hawkins, Ottens, SJ and Ablett. Make it harder to match up and keep offering different propositions/set ups unless one set up works particularly well. Then stick with it. With this combo Geelong offer two talls, one mid and one small forward at FF. All capable of marking. Geelong needs more goals from 20 m out.

8. If Byrnes makes the cut (the bench) then it is also a reasonably fast side. Play Byrnes more of the wing as well. Keep the speed in the middle for either breaking the lines or chasing down or pressurizing the opposition going forward.

9. Greater experience in finals V opposition's experience - and the burning desire to make up for last year's performance in the GF. Attitude.

10. Play only fit players.

11. Learn to make some tactical / positional moves that either change things up or distrupt the opposition planning. Stop being quite so conservative and if something is not working make the move sooner rather than later.

If there are no more injuries and players come back well into the side - then these factors and tactics I believe can see GFC have a fair upside going into the finals. Even losing a few games may steel the boys for a more hard fought, but ultimately, successful finals campaign.

I can see Geelong improving on their current performances and setting the bar a fair bit higher than at present. If Geelong can get some momentum going into the finals - then that would also be of assistance. Don't count out Geelong just yet.

PS. Just go the injury section of each of the 4 main clubs that seem likely to play the biggest part in Sept. They are quite small except Geelong's. If injuries do come to other sides then this would also make it a somewhat less difficult task for the Cats.

 

[Catsmaninamerica]

People please... Cant believe some of the rubbish I am reading.

We have lost TWO games all year. One to Bris in Bris with 6 all australian players missing! The other one to an undefeated team who were full strength, with us having an All Australian and imo one of our very most important player (Otto) out, as well as the best mid sized forward (by the length of the flemington straight) in SJ out. They got us by ONE goal. On their home patch. And to any Sanits nuff nuffs who are bleating about there being no diffeence, get a freaking education. The G and The Dome are VASTLY different. Just talk to ANYONE who has actually played on either ground. So all up we lost by a kick to a team that really, given all those things, if they were the Premiership walk up everyone is talking them to be, should have beaten us by 6 goals. They didnt/couldn't. Heaven help them if we get them Grand Final day, On the G, a little windy, with a line up that hasnt changed for 3 or 4 weeks, including Ottens, Johnson, Harley and a couple of others that have missed chunks.

Seriously people. Get some perspective. Last year, this time of the season saw the Hawks trailing off a little. Maybe they were at that time resting players, ramping up training, staggering things. We dont know. But I reckon a fly on the wall at Kardinia park might whisper that that is exactly what we are doing at the moment. Making sure everyones little niggles are right, preparing Mummy to ruck more time so Ottens can join him by easing in. And its seeing results. Stokes has been out of form of late, but was leading goal kicker on the weekend and looked better. Wojo is back in, being played and persisted with. As much as I dont rate him, expect to see Byrnes (along with Wojo) stay in. Tenace may even surprise and stay in. We have pace. More than most sides. I reckon the coaching staff realise they made a blue taking that slower side into the GF last year.

Don't worry boys and girls. The current spike we are seeing is us making sure that come September, we are settled, prepared and ready to smash sides. I feel infinitely more confident of a Premiership this year than at this stage last year.

Thats my rant.