audas said:
I dont understand this post mojo.
Sorry Audas it does not make a lot of sense.
The thread took a bit of a diversion into drafting policy so I made a comment on that. How drafting a defender at junior level and then expecting them to become a class defender at AFL level compared to taking a forward at junior level and converting them into a defender in the AFL.
The often quoted
"Livo was a forward at junior level and is now a full back and it was a mistake to do that".
My point is that a tall with talent plays forward in the junior level 90% of the time. The best 2 talls play forward and the 3rd and 4th best talls play back. Sometimes this can vary but for the majotity of cases the really talented talls play forward. Then after they are drafted they can be converted. The reason they play forward is they might be a better kick, better mark, more athletic and read the play better. More instinctive and dont need to react to an opponent. Players like that can be converted into a defender. Players like Livo had things lacking even though they were highly rated at the time which make it hard for him now. Things like instincts, reading the play, height, kicking and agility. Some of it is due to poor management and some of it is due to injuries but half of it is due to his defiencies which pre draft were there and are still there.
Looking at the last draft if I was asked who would be the best 2 key defenders from the draft I would have no hesitation in saying Dowler and Kennedy. That is assuming Hawthorn and Carlton wanted to develop them that way. No its unlikely they will because they are most likely going to be better forwards and more value to the tem there. But anyone who thinks Lucy, Bower, Mills would be better at CHB than Kennedy and Dowler I would not agree with.
Give Dowler and Kennedy 50 games at CHB in the AFL and 4 pre seasons and I would have them in front of Bower and anyone else. Dowler has to work on the physical side of the game and in 4 years and 50 games he should have that sorted and Kennedy would have to work on his athleticism and speed.
These 2 kids do not have anything physical lacking in them and are 195cms and have big frames to fill out. Kick well and move well and have good endurance. They are instinctive forwards but could be converted into defenders if a club wanted. I see Roughead in the same situation.
From the next draft then there is Thorp and Hansen. Gumblelton also has all the tools to play there and Riewoldt has already shown he can.
So the best defender is likely to be the best tall who also has the best charactersitics to play as a defender if needed. That is for the 200 draft,, the last draft and the upcoming one. Not 100% but thats how I look at it. Sometimes a player is lost when switched but the odds of that are less than picking a junior who plays back the whole time and when he is drafted down the order he does not make it. There is a reason the forwards are picked first. They are better forwards and are still more likely to become better defenders as well.
Therefore
Kennedy, Dowler > Bower, Mills and Lucy as defenders if a club wanted to develop them that way.
Stephen Gilham from Port was pick 16 in 2002 and was skinny and undersized. Did not grow and fill out and was found at AFL level. Did not have the tools to make it as a key defender.