Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[IlovethePies]

And yet you're trying to tell everyone what he hasn't said.

I know what he hasn't said because he is a definite political type. A fake left who tries to reel in young people who are seeking an alternative to capitalism.

Maybe I don't know everything that he has said (because I haven't watched him enough), but I don't need to. Because i know what he is.

 

[IlovethePies]

The minerals/rare earth deal seems like a red herring. They're not rare and are expensive to refine. This feels like a Trump 'art of the deal' thing to justify the military aid

Totally wrong. This entire war is about dominating raw materials and especially rare minerals. The US ruling elite is attempting to strangle China, and this can only be done by seizing control of critical minerals and shutting off China's supply chains.

 

[IlovethePies]

US president says Zelenskyy negotiating with ‘no cards’.
There may be one card that Zelenskyy holds, at least against Trump, and that’s the “access to Ukraine's critical minerals” card.

"We are open to the idea that mineral resources can be developed with our partners who help us protect our land," Volodymyr Zelenskyy

It was Zelensky himself who initially floated the idea of trading critical minerals for US security guarantees initially.
He is willing to bargain away Ukraine's national wealth with the US (who supposedly was his ally 2 or 3 months ago).
The only card Zelensky holds is the card of political prostration.
Example:
Trump: I want 50% of Ukraine's mineral wealth.
Zelensky: If I agree to that, my government will be overthrown and I will most likely be assassinated. Can we make it 33%?
Trump: I'll get Elon to think about it. But he probably also wants repayments for Starlink access.

 

[wannabejack]

One card short of a deck.

 

[IlovethePies]

One card short of a deck.

Yeah, Zelensky once held the joker card, as a comedian. But there are no jokes anymore.

 

[DidakDelight]

This will be over in a fortnight.
Russia will ramp up their attacks, while the US waits for Zelenski to decide what’s more important:

Thousands more dying or conceding land which has already been taken?

Unless Europe fund this or put troops on the grounds, Zelenski, as they say in the classics aint got a leg to stand on.

Uncle America are expected to fund and protect everyone and they’re broke.

Europe would have no chance of defeating Russia unless they go nuclear.

It’s over people.

 

[IlovethePies]

This will be over in a fortnight.
Russia will ramp up their attacks, while the US waits for Zelenski to decide what’s more important:

Thousands more dying or conceding land which has already been taken?

Unless Europe fund this or put troops on the grounds, Zelenski, as they say in the classics aint got a leg to stand on.

Uncle America are expected to fund and protect everyone and they’re broke.

Europe would have no chance of defeating Russia unless they go nuclear.

It’s over people.

Good summary.
But it is not over.
The US is just winding up for its next strike, which will be elsewhere,
As you said, the US is bankrupt.
But no bankrupt superpower ever peacefully sailed into the sunset.
Germany tried two World Wars.
It took World War 2 to dispose of Great Britain.
The US will launch World War 3 to try to prevent its decline, unless it is stopped.
No country or group of countries can stop it.
It can only be a world socialist revolution which will stop ww3.

 

[Zidane98]

This will be over in a fortnight.
Russia will ramp up their attacks, while the US waits for Zelenski to decide what’s more important:

Thousands more dying or conceding land which has already been taken?

Unless Europe fund this or put troops on the grounds, Zelenski, as they say in the classics aint got a leg to stand on.

Uncle America are expected to fund and protect everyone and they’re broke.

Europe would have no chance of defeating Russia unless they go nuclear.

It’s over people.

You're right. This is Putin's last hurrah. Russia is absolutely wrecked as a state, totally isolated. Putin had to stop Ruble trading completely just to stop total collapse of the Russian economy.

Russia has no chance against those who have pledged a defensive alliance with Ukraine outside of NATO. Putin knows this and knows Russia cannot continue as an international pariah.

Ukraine doesn't even need the US. Ukraine went 12 months previously with no aid packages previously. Russia gained maybe 0.1% territory at the loss of 300,000 troops.

It's over for Putin. Turkey had just declared total support for Ukraine and Turkey alone would smash the fascists Soviet Era army which is running on fumes.

 

[barreness]

Totally wrong. This entire war is about dominating raw materials and especially rare minerals. The US ruling elite is attempting to strangle China, and this can only be done by seizing control of critical minerals and shutting off China's supply chains.

Look I'm with you on the US empire but this is stretching it. There's nothing in Ukraine that can't be got in other places. The fertile soil of the Donbass is probably it's greatest natural resource, plus the soviet industry

The rare earth title is misleading. They exist in small quantities but everywhere(kinda), modern mining deals with 0.5% for say copper and it's profitable. The refining is the real cost(particularly for the environment), which China does, a lot of the raw ore ore is imported(from aus for one) but it can be had from many places.

There is a few minerals like titanium and platinum that are rare and in Russia but they aren't so important in the electro revolution

 

[barreness]

You're right. This is Putin's last hurrah. Russia is absolutely wrecked as a state, totally isolated. Putin had to stop Ruble trading completely just to stop total collapse of the Russian economy.

Russia has no chance against those who have pledged a defensive alliance with Ukraine outside of NATO. Putin knows this and knows Russia cannot continue as an international pariah.

Ukraine doesn't even need the US. Ukraine went 12 months previously with no aid packages previously. Russia gained maybe 0.1% territory at the loss of 300,000 troops.

It's over for Putin. Turkey had just declared total support for Ukraine and Turkey alone would smash the fascists Soviet Era army which is running on fumes.

Turkey? lol, Erdagon will say anything and do nothing. He's the ultimate both sides player, Zelensky should have learnt a lot from him. Turkey will do nothing, they host US nukes and annex Syria, nothing to see here

I think we had this convo a while back but old mate is right, this is over in a few months. My predictions 6 months ago were a little too short but close

 

[Mobbs]

The Year 2025 Forum was held, there are very many points and quotes. I can post them all from Telegram sites, but if anyone else wants to go out into the wild western media and find a summary there, it would be simpler.

 

[Chadwiko]

This is the perfect way for Zelenskyy to respond to Trump and Putin's abject nonsense.

 

[Aussie in exile]

This is the perfect way for Zelenskyy to respond to Trump and Putin's abject nonsense.


View attachment 2233662

Donny and Putin CLAIM they want peace. This will see how much they want peace

 

[Saint]

German election is a positive result for Ukraine. The new German Chancellor is far less worried about upsetting Russia than his Socialist Predecessor, Scholz.

The now-ruling CDU has said it wanted to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Even the German Greens want to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz had prevented it because he didn't want to widen their use to inside Russia. But since part of Russia is now part of Ukraine, that might be a bit of a moot point.

Zelensky is playing this well, not letting Trump surrender on his behalf as the Afghan Govt allowed. Zelensky knows that Trump is a coward and being paid-off. But he also knows that most Americans support Ukraine. Undermining Ukraine undermines Trump.

The EU will now be much more pro-active and if this happens Trump loses even more leverage for his ridiculous minerals plans.

 

[Zidane98]

German election is a positive result for Ukraine. The new German Chancellor is far less worried about upsetting Russia than his Socialist Predecessor, Scholz.

The now-ruling CDU has said it wanted to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Even the German Greens want to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz had prevented it because he didn't want to widen their use to inside Russia. But since part of Russia is now part of Ukraine, that might be a bit of a moot point.

Zelensky is playing this well, not letting Trump surrender on his behalf as the Afghan Govt allowed. Zelensky knows that Trump is a coward and being paid-off. But he also knows that most Americans support Ukraine. Undermining Ukraine undermines Trump.

The EU will now be much more pro-active and if this happens Trump loses even more leverage for his ridiculous minerals plans.

It's over for Putin.

 

[Saint]

It's over for Putin.

The pro-Russia AfD might have got 20% of the vote, but that was after some very suspect terrorist attacks during the election campaign. If Russia or others are paying for dis-harmony in Australia, you can bet your sweet a$$ that they're paying a lot more for attacks in places like Germany which have far greater political benefits for actors such as Russia, Israel, Iran or the USA.

They really needed to win to provide Moscow with the political benefits. But Russia also probably spent relatively little to influence the election in their favour, and will have learnt more for next time.

 

[Visions]

German election is a positive result for Ukraine. The new German Chancellor is far less worried about upsetting Russia than his Socialist Predecessor, Scholz.

The now-ruling CDU has said it wanted to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Even the German Greens want to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz had prevented it because he didn't want to widen their use to inside Russia. But since part of Russia is now part of Ukraine, that might be a bit of a moot point.

Zelensky is playing this well, not letting Trump surrender on his behalf as the Afghan Govt allowed. Zelensky knows that Trump is a coward and being paid-off. But he also knows that most Americans support Ukraine. Undermining Ukraine undermines Trump.

The EU will now be much more pro-active and if this happens Trump loses even more leverage for his ridiculous minerals plans.

Merz calling out the orange ghoul and his government. Preparing for life without them.

 

[Aussie in exile]

German election is a positive result for Ukraine. The new German Chancellor is far less worried about upsetting Russia than his Socialist Predecessor, Scholz.

The now-ruling CDU has said it wanted to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Even the German Greens want to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Scholz had prevented it because he didn't want to widen their use to inside Russia. But since part of Russia is now part of Ukraine, that might be a bit of a moot point.

Zelensky is playing this well, not letting Trump surrender on his behalf as the Afghan Govt allowed. Zelensky knows that Trump is a coward and being paid-off. But he also knows that most Americans support Ukraine. Undermining Ukraine undermines Trump.

The EU will now be much more pro-active and if this happens Trump loses even more leverage for his ridiculous minerals plans.

Not a good result for donny and putin. Happy days.

 

[Saint]

NATO without the USA is still 10x more militarily powerful than the current Russian armed forces. Just because Trump retreats from Europe, doesn't solve Putin's problem.

 

[Zidane98]

NATO without the USA is still 10x more militarily powerful than the current Russian armed forces. Just because Trump retreats from Europe, doesn't solve Putin's problem.

And Putin can't blackmail Trump to veto membership either.

 

[Visions]

This will be over in a fortnight.
Russia will ramp up their attacks, while the US waits for Zelenski to decide what’s more important:

Yes, once those donkeys get that ammunition to the frontline, and those Russian soldiers on crutches storm Ukrainian positions, it will be all over……

 

[Not Important]

“Trump is not the first western leader to betray Ukraine. The US and Britain were guarantors of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear weapons in exchange for promises of security. Neither budged when Russia seized Crimea. French and German leaders sought to placate Putin.

Biden gave Ukraine just enough weapons to keep fighting, but not enough to win.

But no western failings in the 34-year history of independent Ukraine compare to Trump’s bullying. An agreement that would grant impunity for Russian war crimes, lift sanctions and dispense with reparations, recognise Russian sovereignty over occupied territory or leave Ukraine defenceless against further aggression would signify not peace, but surrender.

Trump and Putin believe might makes right and that the weak must be crushed. As the Italian communist Antonio Gramsci wrote, “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters.”

‘Zelenskiy down. Europeans out’: Why is Trump playing right into Russia’s hands on Ukraine?

One possible explanation of Trump’s behaviour is that he sees China as the US’s principal adversary and hopes to prise Russia away from its influence

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Saint]

Like WW1 and WW2, when it becomes clear that Russia isn't going to win, the US will turn up on the last phase of the war and try to claim all the glory and make films about how they single handedly saved Europe from the evil Russian empire.

But just like WW1 and WW2, they will profiteer, but not help for as long as feasibly possible.

 

[Andre]

If the US leaves NATO, then it should be replaced with something new. Something that can encompass both the remaining NATO members who want to stay in, plus the likes of Japan, South Korea, Australia and NZ.

 

[CD Xbow]

This is the perfect way for Zelenskyy to respond to Trump and Putin's abject nonsense.


View attachment 2233662

He is a very clever man. Courageous, too. The opposite of the Orange Sociopath.