We are better off in 5th than 4th

[Luuuc]

Yeah, and where's Tony Jones when we need him?

 

[Cuzz09]

Is 4th that much better than 5th? We're all assuming if we finished 4th we would be playing Port in Wk 1 and likely beat them, however, they finished first for a reason. If we lost to them, we would find ourselves in QLD playing the Cats in Wk 2, and likely Richmond in a prelim week 3.

Now, we will play Melbourne or Collingwood wk 1 at home. Win that and there's a good chance we play the Cats in QLD wk 2, with a prelim waiting in Wk3 for the winner (likely against Richmond). Looks pretty similar to me.

this.

i reckon we end up playing in qld week 2 no matter what.



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[Kellythatsit]

Is 4th that much better than 5th? We're all assuming if we finished 4th we would be playing Port in Wk 1 and likely beat them, however, they finished first for a reason. If we lost to them, we would find ourselves in QLD playing the Cats in Wk 2, and likely Richmond in a prelim week 3.

Now, we will play Melbourne or Collingwood wk 1 at home. Win that and there's a good chance we play the Cats in QLD wk 2, with a prelim waiting in Wk3 for the winner (likely against Richmond). Looks pretty similar to me.

Yes. I’m not too sure why so many think that we’d be a shoe in to win against port. They’ve been strong all year. We have had a good record against them but two of those wins were from arsey after the siren goals. Most recently port have well and truly had our measure.

Still would have preferred to finish 4th to have that chance of going straight through to a prelim, but realistically, I think we would have had to do it the hard way anyway.

 

[Obeanie1]

Easier game at home so an extra week at home then into the hub for 3 games in two weeks and come home with the flag.

Don't underestimate the benefit of spending three weeks at home, training and rehabbing at our own facilities and then playing in front of our home crowd one more time. So we get three odd weeks to sleep in our own beds with family around to refresh for one last big push.

Beat Pies then fly over to either Adelaide or back to Brisbane for possibly 3 more games. Happy to play Port in SA and happy to play a beaten Geelong in QLD. Both those sides will be pooing bricks starring at a straight sets exit.

 

[bluengold89]

Out of interest, for those saying 5th is better than 4th - were you actually barracking for the Cats when Sydney pushed them right to the end?

I'll respect the opinion, but for mine anyone thinking 5th is better is just trying to trick themselves a bit.

 

[ziad]

Don't underestimate the benefit of spending three weeks at home, training and rehabbing at our own facilities and then playing in front of our home crowd one more time. So we get three odd weeks to sleep in our own beds with family around to refresh for one last big push.

Beat Pies then fly over to either Adelaide or back to Brisbane for possibly 3 more games. Happy to play Port in SA and happy to play a beaten Geelong in QLD. Both those sides will be pooing bricks starring at a straight sets exit.

Cats any day thanks

 

[Obeanie1]

Cats any day thanks

It would be nice to end their season, Tim Kelly BOG even better!

 

[FKASC]

It would be nice to end their season, Tim Kelly BOG even better!

Against the team that wanted him!

 

[Coasters7]

I think our only way through is to treat 5th like 4th, it’s obviously not ideal but what other choice do we have. This week is the final round of the H+A, a must win game similar to the Hawks game last year (although preferably not the same result), next week is the “qualifying final” and a win there takes us straight to a prelim.

Obviously there’s other factors such as us having to physically play an extra game so we’d be hoping for a Essendon type roll over from Collingwood and probably a Port win so we can go back to Brisbane and not have to travel for the rest of the finals. But mentally we have to approach it as above so it doesn’t become a huge mountain of 4 finals in a row.

My other worry would be.. if we do manage to get over Collingwood, the following week will probably be the hardest game of them all given the bulk returning players and their game fitness. Semi finals always seem to be our downfall so I reckon if by some chance we make it to a prelim I’m just about locking it in.

 

[javaguice]

Is this for real?

This thread belongs on the freo board.....

I remember them asking Jono Brown and Nick Reiwoldt which position was better for WC.

Browny said 4th (3 premierships) and Reiwoldt said 5th (0 premierships)

You back yourself in to win week 1 and get a rest before the Prelim.

 

[Jupes]

4th >>> 5th any day of the week. the only upside is i see is that we get to put on an absolute show on saturday night and upstage the gabba gf. also if we win there's a slight chance the last 3 games are all on neutral grounds (geelong semi, richmond pf, port gf).

 

[Obeanie1]

Out of interest, for those saying 5th is better than 4th - were you actually barracking for the Cats when Sydney pushed them right to the end?

I'll respect the opinion, but for mine anyone thinking 5th is better is just trying to trick themselves a bit.

Or simply focusing on the positive aspects of the fixture we have!

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

You campaigners gotta be kidding.Forget ladder position this year cuz your argument leans more towards home advantage and stamina hence why top 4th makes sense based on those two factors.This year, none of those two factors apply. Shorter quarters(18 minutes), less games played( 17 versus usual 22) and a bye before finals. Endurance will not be an issue. Home Ground is also mute in this context.Let's say we did happen to finish 4th this season and won first week. PF would have been played outside Perth anyway and considering endurance is really a non issue this year we still had to win PF away from Perth to make the GF. Get excited, we got almost a full list.Playing a semi final in neutral ground is very different to last year where we played Cats at The G. Also shame on those piss poor supporters who have already called off the season based on ladder position. Do me a favour and upper cut yourself. Bring on the finals.

 

[bluengold89]

Or simply focusing on the positive aspects of the fixture we have!

Haha well that's not the title of this thread. If it was 'this is the best year to finish 5th in recent history, but it's still not as good as 4th' I'd agree entirely.

 

[Obeanie1]

Haha well that's not the title of this thread. If it was 'this is the best year to finish 5th in recent history, but it's still not as good as 4th' I'd agree entirely.

This is not anormal season. Not sure if you hav enoticed.

Normally one of the biggest positives in finishing 4th is getting a double chance and your 2nd final you get to regroup and play at home final next week. This year finishing 4th we get no home finals. So no advantage there as in the past. Is this 'tricking myself?'

Normally all clubs spend two weeks pre final at home rehabing and preparing. This year 80% of the comp is sleeping in hotels away from their multi million dollar facilities and families. We get three weeks straight enjoying to benefits of being at home. This season has been mentally very tough on players, expecially ones with young families which we have. Look at our preperation for the finala series versus others. Only Port and Brisbane are more advantaged.

Momentum is important, look at the Dogs in 2016. We rest up nicely, beat the Pies in front of 30,000 at home and with a spring in our step head to SA or QLD to plqy a losing team with doubts in their minds. Hopefully its Geelong who havent been home in months and we play on a neutral ground not the MCG.

So sure normally 4th is better than 5th but this season isnt normal and where you face one of the two most advantaged teams at home week 1. Massive disadvantage. And then you dont get any home finals second week.

 

[Jiggyman]

Sorry, 4th is objectively better. There may be silver linings to 5th, but that's all it is.

 

[Obeanie1]

Sorry, 4th is objectively better. There may be silver linings to 5th, but that's all it is.

Quality in depth argument you have there.

 

[Jiggyman]

Quality in depth argument you have there.

Already been said, but guaranteed week 2 is superior to the alternative. Silver lining that we get a home game, but guaranteed progression is objectively a better result.

And regardless of where you finish in the 8, you have to beat the best to win a GF, which is why I don't buy the argument that 5th gives us arguably an 'easier' path.

 

[Cuzz09]

if it was whats better 4 v 5 then Id rather have 5 flags than 4.

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[bluengold89]

This is not anormal season. Not sure if you hav enoticed.

Normally one of the biggest positives in finishing 4th is getting a double chance and your 2nd final you get to regroup and play at home final next week. This year finishing 4th we get no home finals. So no advantage there as in the past. Is this 'tricking myself?'

Normally all clubs spend two weeks pre final at home rehabing and preparing. This year 80% of the comp is sleeping in hotels away from their multi million dollar facilities and families. We get three weeks straight enjoying to benefits of being at home. This season has been mentally very tough on players, expecially ones with young families which we have. Look at our preperation for the finala series versus others. Only Port and Brisbane are more advantaged.

Momentum is important, look at the Dogs in 2016. We rest up nicely, beat the Pies in front of 30,000 at home and with a spring in our step head to SA or QLD to plqy a losing team with doubts in their minds. Hopefully its Geelong who havent been home in months and we play on a neutral ground not the MCG.

So sure normally 4th is better than 5th but this season isnt normal and where you face one of the two most advantaged teams at home week 1. Massive disadvantage. And then you dont get any home finals second week.

So your very long & oddly patronising answer to my original very short &, i thought at least, respectful question was 'yes, I was barracking for the Cats.'

Thanks & noted.

 

[wce4premiership]

4th gives you two chances, end of story.

The chance of a week off, the opportunity to lose the first game and still advance.

It isn't even close, 4th is better. It is all irrelevant now anyway.

 

[ChampRevesby]

4th gives you two chances, end of story.

The chance of a week off, the opportunity to lose the first game and still advance.

It isn't even close, 4th is better. It is all irrelevant now anyway.

Statisitcally its almost impossible to win the flag outside the top 4 but this year has changed the calculus somewhat given the home ground shakeup. Hope we don't ever see this type arrangement again because it sucks.

 

[Doashuey]

I think aside from the time at home finishing 5th afforded us, the other big advantage this year is the number of players we have coming back in.

Just like the Dogs in 2016, having benefited from the pre-finals bye, we are probably more likely to win a Prelim (assuming we get there) by playing the extra game so that the guys like Shuey, Cripps and reddo get an extra game under their belt to find form and fitness. Say we finished 4th and won the QF, that would be another 2 weeks rest on top of the 2.5 weeks leading up to the QF. 1 game of footy in a month with about 5 blokes coming off an extended injury break to then walk into a Prelim with very little footy under their belt.
Since the pre-season bye came in the number of QF winners winning the prelim has gone from about 90% down to 50% due to the big gaps between games. Having a heap of underdone stars coming back in week 1 of the finals exaggerates this effect. This plus the time at home has me coming around to thinking that our best chance of winning a prelim is probably from 5th.

Finish 4th and lose QF- less time at home but get an extra game into our returns.
Finish 4th and win QF- less time at home and returns dont get the extra game but straight to PF
Finish 5th and win EF- good stretch at home, boosted playing in front of our home crowd returnees get another game in against a pressured opponent
Finish 5th and lose EF- FTC

 

[Coasters7]

The game at home is pretty irrelevant though apart from potentially giving us a reset and springboard for some momentum. That’s the extra game we wouldn’t have to play finishing 4th.. We’re going to have to win 3 away finals regardless of if we’re 4th or 5th so why would it be an advantage to play 4 games instead of 3.

Also means we still have to go through 3 of the best teams in consecutive weeks (Geelong SF, Richmond PF, Port GF is looking like the likely path) plus an added danger game against Collingwood with a big chunk of players coming back from long layoffs. Rather than Port QF, Brisbane PF, Richmond GF which is an infinitely better draw, not even taking into account the extra game.

That being said.. if we get into a prelim from here with a full list I’m backing us. The guys coming back this week will have had 2 full games and we’ll be up and about. Cant really look too much further than this week as Collingwood definitely have the ability to turn up and knock us off but the semi is looming as our biggest roadblock again based on the past. Get through the first two games with no huge outs and we’re good to go.

 

[Cuzz09]

Its worrying we're just assuming we'll walk over the pies.

They are a team that can produce crazy games out of the blue

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