What are the question marks over your team in 2022?

[threesixpio]

Midfield needs to find some zip. Too many of the same types. Hopefully we can attend to this

Forwardline with Gunner back will be better but this is clearly our weak spot now. Looking forward to saying otherwise by years end. Four tall forwards all battling for a spot. Moore looking good and hopefully Brockman and some others come on. Gunner and Bruest as mentors is a blessing

Backline kicks ass.

Game plan? Looks like Sammy will be far more offensive than Clarko.

There are plenty of question marks for Hawthorn but Sammy is a curious type and will relish it all.

Looking forward to this year more than I have for a long time

 

[Jack Green]

Hawks are unfortunately stuck in no man’s land. A handful of promising youngsters, but simply not enough talent drafted at the really pointy end of the draft to develop into a flag quality team. They gave up the equivalent of around 3 x top-15 picks and Burton over a 3-year period for Mitchell, O’Meara and Wingard. Those guys are also taking up approx $2.2m of cap space.

So those guys plus a bunch of other quality senior players such as Shiels, McEvoy, Gunston, Breust, Sicily etc… will have the Hawks very competitive and maybe even a finals contender.

But as a general rule finals and ultimately flags are won by top-30 drafted talent and especially top-5 picks:

Melbourne: Petracca, Oliver, Lever, Jackson, Pickett, Salem, Viney, Brayshaw, Bowery, Sparrow

Richmond: Martin, Cotchin, Rance, Reiwoldt, Prestia, Lynch, Caddy, Bolton, Balta, Rioli, Edwards, Vlastuin

Hawks: Buddy, Lewis, Hodge, Rioli, Roughy, Burgoyne, Birchall, Smith, McEvoy

Eagles: sheed, Shuey, Redden, Hurn, Yeo, Kennedy, Duggan, Cripps, Masten, Jetta, Darling, Ryan, Lycett,

All top-30 picks or better.

Hawks have:

Impey
McEvoy (on his last legs)
O’Meara
Gunston (question marks on fitness)
Day (looks very good)
Grainger
Wingard
MacDonald and Butler (new draftees)

I’m sure I’ve missed a couple somewhere ….

So I just can’t see the high end talent or depth of top-30 draft picks to contend any time in the next 6-8 years.

Finishing top-4 after H&A in 2018 was a monumental effort from the Hawks but probably did them no favours from a list mgt point of view, as it provided false hope and meant starting a genuine rebuild/refresh probably 2-years later than they should have.

After 2018 they got rid of Burton and a top draft pick for Wingard. On the back of Mitchell and O’Meara it has really made their list build really tough and well behind other teams looking to contend.

In 3-4 years the Hawks midfield is what?: Ward, Bramble, Newcombe, Butler, MacDonald plus some more draftees.

North’s is : Horne-Francis, Simpkin, Philips, LDU, Powell, Thomas

Giants is: Kelly, Hopper, Taranto, Whitfield, Tom Green, Callaghan

So if Hawks don’t win a flag with JOM, Mitchell and Shiels, I’m not sure how they’ll compete with the star studded midfields of North and GWS to name a couple from 2025-2027 as they’ll have 2-3 years development on Hawks.

So then they are holding out for perhaps 2028 onwards…. which is when Ward, Butler, MacDonald and picks from 2022/23 will be hitting their prime. But if Hawks don’t really stockpile top-30 picks and hopefully a couple of top-5 picks in 2022/23 I think they could miss their opportunity. A half arsed rebuild like the Saints did recently will keep them in no man’s land for a long time.



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Half - arsed rebuild - the Saints. Not unfair.

I have them in the 7-10 range. Their not a bottom 6 list , but they don't have enough elite talent to contend. Having said that, very nice to go along and see your side win a few games as opposed to many years previous.
Like most clubs or governments for that matter, you get left with the mess the previous coach or administration leave behind. Nothing new in that. Alan Jeans did it in mid 70's , Ross Lyon a decade ago. Countless examples elsewhere with other clubs both recent and old.
Saints are 6th in both age and experience now. As former player Leigh Montagna says they should be competing right now, but their not good enough to be competing right now.
Aside from Ryder , we have no-one in our best 22 over 29 so you'd think they will be competitive in 2022. But personally don't have them as a premiership contender. Happy to be proven wrong .

 

[Toump Ass]

This thread seems a bit too Hawk-y for me now, I liked it more when it was just me explaining to everyone why Dees are awesome.

 

[timokane]

Collingwood can they actually play good footy and have they got over their injury curse

 

[schmuttt]

You've summed up the Hawks pretty well here, and I unfortunately think at this point of time, the Saint too.

St Kilda already started turning to youth in 2021, have a ‘should be’ elite KPF in King and provided they don’t make any more stupid trades they can build around that.

 

[Jack Green]

St Kilda already started turning to youth in 2021, have a ‘should be’ elite KPF in King and provided they don’t make any more stupid trades they can build around that.

Absolutely. Looks like he could be a 60+ a year goalkicker as early as this year - and they don't grow on trees those guys. Marshall is older just turned 26- but he's now played maybe 60 games and is the 6'7 ruck KPF you can build a side around. If those 2 200 cm types become elite they could well be better than my forecasts. The Richo years with a combination of poor drafting /poor player development will hurt us though I think . Your always going to get misses with your hits over years of drafts. I just reckon we have missed the boat on too many occasions.
But yes, Max King [ and his brother as well] both look like they could be elite.

 

[JackFlash]

Willingness to play youth and game plan that revolves around faster movement of the ball.

 

[timokane]

Has Collingwood moved on from the corrupt Eddie mcguire days

 

[schmuttt]

Absolutely. Looks like he could be a 60+ a year goalkicker as early as this year - and they don't grow on trees those guys. Marshall is older just turned 26- but he's now played maybe 60 games and is the 6'7 ruck KPF you can build a side around. If those 2 200 cm types become elite they could well be better than my forecasts. The Richo years with a combination of poor drafting /poor player development will hurt us though I think . Your always going to get misses with your hits over years of drafts. I just reckon we have missed the boat on too many occasions.
But yes, Max King [ and his brother as well] both look like they could be elite.

There is definitely a bit of a hole in the list (Bit similar to what Melbourne had a couple of years ago) but I think they should play finals this year. Not sure when the Saints will actually compete for the flag, but I'd be surprised if they have another year like last year.

 

[JackOutback]

I’ve got real concerns …. The eagles core midfield is:

NicNat 31
Yeo 28
Gaff 29
Shuey 31
Redden 31
Kelly 27
Sheed 26

There seems to be a void of talented midfielders coming through. I believe with a dream injury run the Eagles are capable of finals in 2022 and maybe 2023, but having given up so much for Tim Kelly and not finishing anywhere near bottom, it’s hard to see a great period for the Eagles from 2024 onwards as the elite young talent just isn’t there.

Having said that, I thought their list was in real trouble back in 2018 and they won the flag, so who knows ….

You're not wrong that the first team looks old as they are going all in for a final crack. But Yeo, Kelly and Sheed will all still be around in 2024, as will Ryan, Allen, Barrass, Duggan, Rioli etc. Whether we are any good or fall in a hole in 2024 will depend very much on how last year's draftees and this year's picks have developed after three to four years in the system. We have a few that look like they might come on but one never knows.

 

[Noidnadroj]

There's a bit wrong with this analysis, I'm not even sure where to... but let's make a start anyway...

Why are you arguing that we are stuck in no mans land because we've not had an arbitrary amount of top 5 picks to date but then highlighting a bunch of premiership players that Hawthorn and other clubs traded in that were never top 5 picks. That's shooting yourself in the foot to begin with.

Not sure why you'd even care to menton what amount of the cap Mitchell, O'meara and Wingard are taking considering that we're one of about 3 clubs who have an abundance of space in their cap.

You have indeed missed a bunch of players.

Then you've done this thing that so many do on Bigfooty where you're completely disregarding that draft and trade periods happen every year, so in 2025 or whatever year you choose from the future Hawthorn will have any number of additional players on the list, via draft, trade FA, SSP, etc.

Noticed you didn't mention our best midfielder of the last 25 years, Sam Mitchell. Is that because he was taken at pick 36?

I'll highlight the top 5 picks in this group; then I'll point out that we won 2014 and 2015 with just 2 of these top 5 picks.
Hawks: Buddy, Lewis, Hodge, Rioli, Roughy, Burgoyne, Birchall, Smith, McEvoy

We punted Burton with picks for Wingard, but also upgraded Burton with former number 7 pick, Scrimshaw, at the same time on the cheap. He's already better and has played almost half as many games.

The point is flags are won by teams with an abundance of top-30 picks (as listed after each recent flag team)…. usually with some top-5 picks sprinkled in. Hawks don’t have enough of either.

And I didn’t disregard future drafts …. my point was if Hawks don’t finish bottom few they won’t get any more top-5 selections. And if they don’t trade players out they’ll struggle to get enough elite young talent to compete with other developing teams who have the jump on them in development.

I think the Hawks are well positioned to have a decent couple of years that may even include finals, but they are miles off a flag. Then post Mitchell/O’Meara/Shiels/Wingard the Hawks midfield looks very very weak. Even Worpel has not hit the heights you’d hope for after his first couple of seasons. I’m not saying the midfield can’t be beefed up over time with draftees etc…. but based on how light on it looks it’s going to take a long time.

So that’s what I mean by no-man’s land. A plethora of quality players 27-31yo that will keep them competitive. But not enough high quality in that 23-26yo range to be in flag contention, and no stockpile of draft picks. And by the time draftees taken from 2021-24 mature, most of the current high quality players will be retired or past their best so just not sure where the rebuild will sit?

I don’t think Sam Mitchell disagrees which is why they were so keen to shop their senior stars around to get more quality picks …but unfortunately nothing eventuated.

If they nail every draft pick and secure a free agent or two perhaps they can contend sooner .., but I believe they have no room for error.



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[Obeanie1]

Eagles have one of the most talented lists imo... just seem to be jaded under Simpson though. Is the message no longer getting through?

Have you changed your assistant coaches as this can often help regenerate things.

We have changed assistant coaches. Brought in Schofield from Port who was a multiple WAFL premiership coach and Matthew Knights as midfield coaches. Both allegedly are 'hard task masters' which is what we desperately need. Sam Mitchell has been praised for his hard nosed style in 2018 that helped get that unlikely flag but since 2018 we have looked disinterested and soft.

Starting to have question marks against Simo. Pretty well all the head assistants have been moved on and Rob Whiley is back coaching the WAFL side which is a good move.

The Eagles have enough talent to finish higher than 2021 they just need to get the hunger back. Something that has been pretty well non existent for three years. Oh, and the top players stop getting soft tissue injuries.

From reports the post season reviews were scathing, no one missed out.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The point is flags are won by teams with an abundance of top-30 picks (as listed after each recent flag team)…. usually with some top-5 picks sprinkled in. Hawks don’t have enough of either.

And I didn’t disregard future drafts …. my point was if Hawks don’t finish bottom few they won’t get any more top-5 selections. And if they don’t trade players out they’ll struggle to get enough elite young talent to compete with other developing teams who have the jump on them in development.

I think the Hawks are well positioned to have a decent couple of years that may even include finals, but they are miles off a flag. Then post Mitchell/O’Meara/Shiels/Wingard the Hawks midfield looks very very weak. Even Worpel has not hit the heights you’d hope for after his first couple of seasons. I’m not saying the midfield can’t be beefed up over time with draftees etc…. but based on how light on it looks it’s going to take a long time.

So that’s what I mean by no-man’s land. A plethora of quality players 27-31yo that will keep them competitive. But not enough high quality in that 23-26yo range to be in flag contention, and no stockpile of draft picks. And by the time draftees taken from 2021-24 mature, most of the current high quality players will be retired or past their best so just not sure where the rebuild will sit?

I don’t think Sam Mitchell disagrees which is why they were so keen to shop their senior stars around to get more quality picks …but unfortunately nothing eventuated.

If they nail every draft pick and secure a free agent or two perhaps they can contend sooner .., but I believe they have no room for error.



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The arbitrary number of draft picks a club “needs to have to challenge” is always moving around on Bigfooty, yet people like yourself seem to be so absolute about it.

Only a couple of weeks ago I read that you need to have multiple top 3 picks, and this came after years of reading “you need first round picks”.
At least you’ve gone somewhere in the middle.

All that really matters is output, not where a player is drafted, and we’ve had a bunch of youngsters in 2021 show that might have bright futures regardless of the draft pick associated with them.
Jiath was a rookie for example, and if he fulfills his potential he will be an AA caliber player.
Reeves and Bramble taken as SSP’s both look to have big futures.
Koschitske and Moore both had breakout years.

I get that it’s easy to just say “top 30” picks, but it’s also a bit lazy and redundant if you select a couple of players like Jiath or even Sicily or Mitchell in the 30’s and 60’s or maybe trade in players like Gunston, Gibson or Scrimshaw on the cheap.

There’s more ways than ever to build a list.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Need some midfielders first.


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Show me the midfielder with a Brownlow at your disposal and maybe you can make that joke

 

[BIGHAWK23]

LOL

New coach, new game plan, young rebuilding list. Ruck set up?

Yes there will be a lot of preparing.

Just be prepared for another bottom 4 finish.

Better then

Injured Midfield

Ageing Forward Line

Tight Salary Cap

Traded 3 firsts for Tim Kelly

Can't prepare a normal sized top for a draftee

But prepare to be the 2nd Team in Perth for a Decade

 

[BIGHAWK23]

That's the thing... the Hawks don't have the same number of high end picks compared to Crows & Roos... & i don't see the same level of likely top end talent.

Whislt early draft picks are no guarantee to quality, the odds are in their favour.

Last year we played all of our previous year draftees & they all look like they will be long term options...including Thilthorpe who looks like he could end up being one of the guns of the competition in a few years. I don’t see anyone on the Hawks list in his class.

The only likely Top End Talent you have is Thilthorpe

Jones is too Small and not skillful enough to make up for
McHenry thinks acting tough on field is an admirable skill and again is too small and not skillful enough
Fogarty.... Please
McAsey dominated in SANFL by our Rookie Forward (Callow)

Rachele i rate, but time will tell

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The only likely Top End Talent you have is Thilthorpe

Jones is too Small and not skillful enough to make up for
McHenry thinks acting tough on field is an admirable skill and again is too small and not skillful enough
Fogarty.... Please
McAsey dominated in SANFL by our Rookie Forward (Callow)

Rachele i rate, but time will tell

Lol, that has to be the worst analysis I have read in a long time.

I can see it's pointless having a discussion with you.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Lol, that has to be the worst analysis I have read in a long time.

I can see it's pointless having a discussion with you.

You base your analysis on top picks in 3 compromised drafts

To purely look at top picks and decide that due to that Hawthorn dont have any likely top end talent is laughable

Day was a pick 13 and looks a class above 200 gamers when he plays

DGB showed why he was a top 10 pick, but has more to prove

If Thilthorpe looks a star of the comp, Kosi should be like Dunstall based on his stats in Comparison , its too early to make that assumption on either player

But i acknowledged Riley's potential,

But CJ was a CAT B and looked better then all of them, so to be dismissive of late picks in comparison to early picks is rubbish

All are the same Day 1 of their first Pre Season

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

You base your analysis on top picks in 3 compromised drafts

To purely look at top picks and decide that due to that Hawthorn dont have any likely top end talent is laughable

Day was a pick 13 and looks a class above 200 gamers when he plays

DGB showed why he was a top 10 pick, but has more to prove

If Thilthorpe looks a star of the comp, Kosi should be like Dunstall based on his stats in Comparison , its too early to make that assumption on either player

But i acknowledged Riley's potential,

But CJ was a CAT B and looked better then all of them, so to be dismissive of late picks in comparison to early picks is rubbish

All are the same Day 1 of their first Pre Season

Lol, Kosi looks like he is going to be a decent player but Thilthorpe will be a future gun of the competition.

Find me an opposition supporter who would take Kosi over Thilthorpe.

Time will tell which one of us will be closer...

 

[threesixpio]

This thread needs more of a Leigh Montagne approach

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Lol, Kosi looks like he is going to be a decent player but Thilthorpe will be a future gun of the competition.

Find me an opposition supporter who would take Kosi over Thilthorpe.

Time will tell which one of us will be closer...

When did i say I would take Kosi over Thilthorpe?

I was merely comparing the similar years and saying that its too early to declare future stars of the comp based on a 27 and 18 goal comp

 

[Jack Green]

The arbitrary number of draft picks a club “needs to have to challenge” is always moving around on Bigfooty, yet people like yourself seem to be so absolute about it.

Only a couple of weeks ago I read that you need to have multiple top 3 picks, and this came after years of reading “you need first round picks”.
At least you’ve gone somewhere in the middle.

All that really matters is output, not where a player is drafted, and we’ve had a bunch of youngsters in 2021 show that might have bright futures regardless of the draft pick associated with them.
Jiath was a rookie for example, and if he fulfills his potential he will be an AA caliber player.
Reeves and Bramble taken as SSP’s both look to have big futures.
Koschitske and Moore both had breakout years.

I get that it’s easy to just say “top 30” picks, but it’s also a bit lazy and redundant if you select a couple of players like Jiath or even Sicily or Mitchell in the 30’s and 60’s or maybe trade in players like Gunston, Gibson or Scrimshaw on the cheap.

There’s more ways than ever to build a list.

You'd certainly hope so. In a 7 year period your only drafted under top 40 pick still on your list,.............. is a 26 year old Daniel Howe!!

 

[Nutjob]

Show me the midfielder with a Brownlow at your disposal and maybe you can make that joke

You fall off a cliff after that.


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[Obeanie1]

Better then

Injured Midfield

Ageing Forward Line

Tight Salary Cap

Traded 3 firsts for Tim Kelly

Can't prepare a normal sized top for a draftee

But prepare to be the 2nd Team in Perth for a Decade

Lol.

More than happy to put $$$ on Eagles finishing higher than the Hawks.

Who's the ruck at the Hawks again? Some Pies reject?

How old are Gunstan and Bruest?

Great points btw......

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Who's the ruck at the Hawks again? Some Pies reject?