What happens if Joe Biden doesn't seek a second term in 2024?

What happens if Joe Biden doesn't seek a second term?

  • Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee in 2024

  • Someone else becomes the nominee


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Sweet Jesus

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Joe Biden has been sworn-in as the 46th US president.

He's already 78. Is he going to give it another shake in 2024? Seems like a stretch, surely?

If not, VP Kamala Harris seems like the presumptive nominee. She'll have had an unmatched platform and will presumably count on the support of the Democratic establishment, including Biden himself.

If it comes to that, I think it would be a mistake to simply "anoint" her and clear the field, allowing her to run without a competitive primary. The closest analogy is probably Al Gore at the end of the Clinton presidency in 2000. But more recently, there's also the example of HRC in 2016. I hope they don't spend the next four years building her up that way.

I think that kind of fix backfired for Clinton in 2016 and I'm not sure it would be good for Harris either, who is smart and charismatic but remains unproven as a campaigner. Her 2016 primary run, for example, was a debacle. She might end up being the best canddiate in 2024 - again, assuming Biden doesn't seek re-election. But she should fight for it. The idea that party insiders have simply picked her would, I think, not help her chances.

I'm not sure what that field could potentially look like so far in advance - Buttigieg? Cuomo? Newsom? Yang? AOC? Klobuchar? - but it might not be the lay-down misère for Harris the party would like.

We're a long way out and a lot can change, not least with regard to the Republican Party and the challenger it presents.

Nonetheless, I think a competitive primary would be preferable to simply clearing the field and gifting Harris the nomination.
 
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spinynorman

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AOC could very well win by inheriting Bernie's base. Newsom has probably screwed his chances with his pandemic response and being caught violating his own rules on public dining. Everyone else you mentioned is a retread who would lose to Kamala.
AOC might be the best choice but I’m not sure she would want to go for it now when she has so much time on her side. The left definitely need someone to stand though, and while Sanders seemed a long shot in 2012 and did well, you don’t want to go for someone too low profile when there’s better options.
 

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Sweet Jesus

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AOC could very well win by inheriting Bernie's base. Newsom has probably screwed his chances with his pandemic response and being caught violating his own rules on public dining. Everyone else you mentioned is a retread who would lose to Kamala.
AOC is too young to realistically challenge. I agree Newsom is a longshot.

Yang isn't a "retread", whatever that means. If they try to clear the field to anoint Harris, that's the kind of outsider who could be a burr in her stocking.

Nor is Harris a proven campaigner. She'd probably prevail given her advantages but it might not be the cakewalk the party would hope.
 

Sweet Jesus

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Who both got chosen as VP? Which of the names you mentioned are suddenly going to be elevated to VP before 2024?
So what? That doesn't indicate that they were particularly skilled campaigners. Harris, in particular, was a disaster in 2016. Sure, being VP gives her an advantage in terms of platform and name recognition but that's no guarantee. There should still be a competitive primary.
 

Johnny Bananas

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So what? That doesn't indicate that they were particularly skilled campaigners. Harris, in particular, was a disaster in 2016. Sure, being VP gives her an advantage in terms of platform and name recognition but that's no guarantee. There should still be a competitive primary.
I never said it wouldn't be competitive, just that Harris will win if she's facing a group of retreads who all lost to Biden.
 

Fire

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Harris, like Clinton, is simply unelectable. She might get lucky and face an equally unelectable republican; but Trump still got the job done and its hard to imagine a bigger clown.
 

The Passenger

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I like AOC's exuberance, spirit, attitude and - for the most part - her general principles but she is a long way from being ready for a run at the US presidency. The US electorate is a long way from being ready for her and she's an easy attack for Republicans.

Can't see it happening for at least 15 years.
 

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FredLeDeux

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I like AOC's exuberance, spirit, attitude and - for the most part - her general principles but she is a long way from being ready for a run at the US presidency. The US electorate is a long way from being ready for her and she's an easy attack for Republicans.

Can't see it happening for at least 15 years.
Don't think she'll hang around
 

spinynorman

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I never said it wouldn't be competitive, just that Harris will win if she's facing a group of retreads who all lost to Biden.
Maybe. She was polling sixth and falling when she dropped out of the primaries this time around, and was revealed to be a pretty lousy candidate once a shred of scrutiny was placed on her.

That said, Biden had two woeful runs for the Presidency before his successful one, so maybe that rub can be all the difference. I'm not sure Harris being attached to Biden will do the same for her popularity that Biden's attachment to Obama did for him. We shall see, I guess.
 

Blue1980

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Joe Biden has been sworn-in as the 46th US president.

He's already 78. Is he going to give it another shake in 2024? Seems like a stretch, surely?

If not, VP Kamala Harris seems like the presumptive nominee. She'll have had an unmatched platform and will presumably count on the support of the Democratic establishment, including Biden himself.

If it comes to that, I think it would be a mistake to simply "anoint" her and clear the field, allowing her to run without a competitive primary. The closest analogy is probably Al Gore at the end of the Clinton presidency in 2000. But more recently, there's also the example of HRC in 2016. I hope they don't spend the next four years building her up that way.

I think that kind of fix backfired for Clinton in 2016 and I'm not sure it would be good for Harris either, who is smart and charismatic but remains unproven as a campaigner. Her 2016 primary run, for example, was a debacle. She might end up being the best canddiate in 2024 - again, assuming Biden doesn't seek re-election. But she should fight for it. The idea that party insiders have simply picked her would, I think, not help her chances.

I'm not sure what that field could potentially look like so far in advance - Buttigieg? Cuomo? Newsom? Yang? AOC? Klobuchar? - but it might not be the lay-down misère for Harris the party would like.

We're a long way out and a lot can change, not least with regard to the Republican Party and the challenger it presents.

Nonetheless, I think a competitive primary would be preferable to simply clearing the field and gifting Harris the nomination.
Agree, not a good idea just to anoint someone because the party establishment thinks it looks good on paper, we saw how that went in 2016.

Even 2008, establishment wanted Hillary (with noted democrat D Trump himself donating to the cause).

AOC could be a shot by then, I personally hope so as my politics most closely align with hers of those in the party and think they’d certainly be best for the USA, represent where they are now and certainly for the rest of the world.

If the republicans lost their sh*t when Obama got in, god knows how they’d react to AOC, though I think by then their brand of fact free white grievance BS won’t have even the gerrymandered support enough to have power.

As soon as Texas and Florida can flip blue, it’s game over for GOP as they are now. They will then have to move to the centre, or looks to have yahoo hick states succeeding.
 

JackFlash

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Crazy Joe has already fallen asleep on the job, Kamala lies in waiting with wrecking ball in hand, Pelosi, Schumer amd AOC are quite mad. The sad thing is Joe might not make it to Easter health wise! 2021 will be an eventful year in the USA.
 

JackFlash

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“The good news is that people know me… The bad news is, they know me " - Joe Biden. This will be fun while it lasts, I give it to Easter!
 

Seeds

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I like AOC's exuberance, spirit, attitude and - for the most part - her general principles but she is a long way from being ready for a run at the US presidency. The US electorate is a long way from being ready for her and she's an easy attack for Republicans.

Can't see it happening for at least 15 years.
Nothing is going to change in 15 years except the climate debate will be over once solar/wind power and Evs are all cheaper then their conventional alternatives and becoming widely adopted. She needs to run why climate is an issue and people want to do something about it. Her prime time to run is the 2020s. The earlier the better.
 

Blue1980

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Nothing is going to change in 15 years except the climate debate will be over once solar/wind power and Evs are all cheaper then their conventional alternatives and becoming widely adopted. She needs to run why climate is an issue and people want to do something about it. Her prime time to run is the 2020s. The earlier the better.
That is far from the only platform she is running on.
 

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