When is our "window" open?

[CrippsonBlue]

It has to do with not only the ability of the rest of the team, but experience and conditioning........Fev or no Fev we aint there yet.......and won't be for a couple of years.......hence the OP.

The logic used in your OP is pretty spot on, but as I alluded to, it doesn't allow for unknowns such as injury and trades.

Your time frame is when our best window will likely open, but with Fev, it pretty much opens now, and it still gives us 3ish years time to find a replacement. Even if we don't get one beforehand, I think our premiership assault in 3+ years time will greatly benefit from having finished in the top 4 over the next few years - a feat I believe we can achieve with Fev.

I don't think we're as far off as you suggest. My argument does not concern Fev (who knows what effect it'll have), it concerns keeping our team as strong as possible. Premierships are usually a progression, you need to make finals, you need to finish top 4, and then you get your shot. We've taken the first step, and I'm wary of potentially delaying the next.

 

[Go_Blues!]

Name a premier without one.

When was the last time that a "power forward" had an influence on a grand final????? I think Mooney (if he is a power forward) kicked 5 in 07, Sticks kicked 5 in '95. I can't think of a single power forward that has seriously impacted a grandfinal in between. Lloyd might have got 4 in 2000?? Grand finals are not won by power forwards. Brown?? Did he kick a bag in any of the Brisbane years...Lynch?

 

[Bluebear]

I don't think we're as far off as you suggest. My argument does not concern Fev (who knows what effect it'll have), it concerns keeping our team as strong as possible. Premierships are usually a progression, you need to make finals, you need to finish top 4, and then you get your shot. We've taken the first step, and I'm wary of potentially delaying the next.

True.

I did say in the OP that

This would suggest to me our window opening in 3 years, and staying open for 3-4 years as that glut of talent moves through.
This isn't to say we can't win a flag in the next 3 years.......we could do a "Hawks" and pinch one, but the probabilities are more likely to be down the track.

I think the progression you talk of comes in many forms. Personel always change due to injury, form, trades etc.

The exciting thing for me is that the 21-24y.o. group contains most of our defence, and most of our midfield.
The progression comes from them better learning each others game, better developing their own game (skill and endurance) and the coach eveolving the game plan to suit those players he has and their abilities.

I see our midfield being able to exploit multiple forwards and used multiple avenues.

For year the knock on us is that we are too "Fev conscious" up forward. At times this year and last we have pushed Cloke, Setanta and Kreuzer forward........what for? They don't get targetted.
When Kennedy was here he would bust his butt leading up to the ball carrier only to be ignored and have it bombed in over his head.

Again, don't want to digress and turn this into why I am happy for Fev to go, but the point is that here or not, our core group of talent are not quite at the mark.

Over the next year or two more of them will get there and this should be enough to keep us playing finals, but until they all reach that point we won't "click" as we all witnessed with the Saints this year........IMHO.

 

[Go_Blues!]

Power forwards are too easy to shut down. They don't influence grand finals

 

[Bluebear]

When was the last time that a "power forward" had an influence on a grand final????? I think Mooney (if he is a power forward) kicked 5 in 07, Sticks kicked 5 in '95. I can't think of a single power forward that has seriously impacted a grandfinal in between. Lloyd might have got 4 in 2000?? Grand finals are not won by power forwards. Brown?? Did he kick a bag in any of the Brisbane years...Lynch?

Lynch and Rocca kicked 4 each in 02.
Lloyd kicked 5 in a losing side in 2001
Locket kicked 6 in a lsoing side in 96.

Beyond 01 is a different game style of footy anyway.

 

[Go_Blues!]

Lynch and Rocca kicked 4 each in 02.
Lloyd kicked 5 in a losing side in 2001
Locket kicked 6 in a lsoing side in 96.

Beyond 01 is a different game style of footy anyway.

So of that lot, the best in a winning side is Lynch in 01. Power forwards do not influence grand finals. What you need is a great midfield (which the last 10 Premiership sides have in common) and a great defence (which the last 50 premiership sides have in common). Key forwards are too easy to shut down. Jarman kicked maybe 5 or 6 in each of the Crows premiershps but he was really a mid or small forward. Akermains might have kicked 4 or 5 in 2003? Key forwards do not win finals. Alternativly, Ablett, Kernahan kicked 8 and 6 in losing grandfinals....hmmm. History tells us we are better off without Fev....

 

[Blueboys11]

This whole 'premiership window' crap annoys the sh%t out of me. Teams should be trying to win the flag every year!!

I'd love to see some sort of system introduced whereby you can only have a certain number of players younger than say 22 or 23. Make teams recruit players like Russel Robinson, Shane Tuck, Stewy Dew etc etc. This whole building yourself up to have a crack for 2-3 years and then spend another 5 years twiddling your thumbs is friggin ridiculous!!!!

 

[Mr.Kennedy]

For what its worth, Saints lost Lockett and made the Grannie the next year. Then lost Gherig and made Grannie 2 years later. Make of it what you will.

 

[as0l0]

If Fev goes then the window is closed......simple as that !

i think it will open wider if Fev goes, but still be open if he stays.

 

[Go_Blues!]

This whole 'premiership window' crap annoys the sh%t out of me. Teams should be trying to win the flag every year!!

I'd love to see some sort of system introduced whereby you can only have a certain number of players younger than say 22 or 23. Make teams recruit players like Russel Robinson, Shane Tuck, Stewy Dew etc etc. This whole building yourself up to have a crack for 2-3 years and then spend another 5 years twiddling your thumbs is friggin ridiculous!!!!

Yeah, good idea. We could insist that all teams need to have a certain number of players who's surname starts with "g" as well. That would make things more interesting. Of couse the complicating factor is guys like Brian Lake who changed his name but there must be some way of closing that "loop-hole".

 

[gbatman]

for the record the Hawks didn't pinch that flag, they were the best team with a full 22 on the park that year.

Our window was not open this year, it will be open next year however and the following year it will be open a little more so to speak.

How long it opens depends on the quality of the youngsters we have now.

Fevola, Stevens, Scotland and Houlihan are the "to be replaced players" if we are to keep the window open for an extended period of time.

Houlihan is easily replaced by Garlett.
Stevens is replaced by Yarran.
Scotland will be replaced by Anderson/Armfield/Joseph.

I recon we can easily replace these players to keep our window open.

Waite will Replace Fevola as our full forward, he's a very good full forward.
But then who replaces Waite at half forward? With a bit of luck Kreuzer, Hampson and Warnock will be big grown men and Kreuzer will be a good tall forward.
But we will still need depth in tall forwards. That's where Tiller and O'Keeffe comes into things.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

When was the last time that a "power forward" had an influence on a grand final????? I think Mooney (if he is a power forward) kicked 5 in 07, Sticks kicked 5 in '95. I can't think of a single power forward that has seriously impacted a grandfinal in between. Lloyd might have got 4 in 2000?? Grand finals are not won by power forwards. Brown?? Did he kick a bag in any of the Brisbane years...Lynch?

Norm Smith Medal - List of Winners

G. Ablett Snr seems to be the only "power" forward to have won one.

 

[Go_Blues!]

For what its worth, Saints lost Lockett and made the Grannie the next year. Then lost Gherig and made Grannie 2 years later. Make of it what you will.

Key forwards don't influence grandfinal wins. In fact, although a few key forwards have won norm-smith medals, I can't think of a key forward that has won a norm-smith in a winning side

 

[mac25]

Well how on earth did Geelong win a flag then...cos to a man I am sure we would take Waite and Kreuzer over Hawkins and Mooney at their respective bests.

Of course you need some sort of forward line, and multiple avenues to goal, but a strong defense and midfield will take you a lot further...especially in today's game. Running around as though the sky is falling because we are potentially losing a very good forward is not overly productive. As a surprisingly sage St Kilda supporter noted they shipped the greatest full forward of all time off and made (and should have won) the GF the very next year.

This statement is not correct Mooney has been a very good forward for Geelong over the last five years and Hawkins on the way up and will be a good player for the Cats, if we compare them to Waite and Kruezer, clearly Waite has played his best and most consistent football as a defender, yes he has played the odd good game up forward but he has never put together consistent form up forward and his kicking is very unreliable for a forward.
Again with Kruezer he has played most of his football as a ruckman and is basically unproven as a forward, not saying he cannot be effective with a occasional stint up there but he seems best suited as a mobile ruckman, so the comment re Mooney/Hawkins is not correct at all if we are making a judgement on what they have actually shown in these roles.

 

[mac25]

So if Fev stays our midfield and defence suddenly become more experienced and gain the run and know how of a side 4 years their senior, but if Fev goes then they lose all that experienced and conditioning?

Is this the jist of the "not if Fev goes" arguement?

Talk some sense people.......please.

Great players struggle for years in shit sides (Pavlich, Richo) and NEVER have their "premiership window" open.

It has to do with not only the ability of the rest of the team, but experience and conditioning........Fev or no Fev we aint there yet.......and won't be for a couple of years.......hence the OP.

The Bulldogs have now realised after a number of failed finals attempts that having one quality tall forward is critical, yes having a strong midfield and defence is also vital, but also this is a key reason why Hawthorn will be well placed to make another challenge next year with a strong attack, l certainly take on board your comments, but equally so l am of the view Carlton will struggle to seriously challenge the best without Fev or a adequate replacement for him.

 

[Bluebear]

for the record the Hawks didn't pinch that flag, they were the best team with a full 22 on the park that year.

Cats kicked 1.9.
Hawks pinched it.

Our window was not open this year, it will be open next year however and the following year it will be open a little more so to speak.

Based on what?

How long it opens depends on the quality of the youngsters we have now.

Fevola, Stevens, Scotland and Houlihan are the "to be replaced players" if we are to keep the window open for an extended period of time.

Bingo.

 

[Go_Blues!]

This statement is not correct Mooney has been a very good forward for Geelong over the last five years and Hawkins on the way up and will be a good player for the Cats, if we compare them to Waite and Kruezer, clearly Waite has played his best and most consistent football as a defender, yes he has played the odd good game up forward but he has never put together consistent form up forward and his kicking is very unreliable for a forward.
Again with Kruezer he has played most of his football as a ruckman and is basically unproven as a forward, not saying he cannot be effective with a occasional stint up there but he seems best suited as a mobile ruckman, so the comment re Mooney/Hawkins is not correct at all if we are making a judgement on what they have actually shown in these roles.

I am not suggesting that Kruizer is a ready made forward but he does have the attributes. He is an excellent contested mark, he leads well into good spaces. He never misses a goal from anywhere, He reminds us of a better version of Paul Salmon but more agressve and a better ball sense. You are right though, right now, Kruizer going forward is speclatvie, but ew have seen enough to suggest that he will be a gun forward. At the same time, clearly he is the best ruckman at Carlton so moving him forward will impact the side. The Jury is still ouit; but they are smiling

 

[AlecDuncan]

West Coast 2006

Lynch, Hansen

Geelong 2007, 2009

Mooney, Ablett
Mooney, Hawkins

3 of the last 4 years

0 of of the last 4

 

[Bluebear]

Lynch, Hansen

Mooney, Ablett
Mooney, Hawkins

0 of of the last 4

So you're saying you need to have them there even if they don't kick big bags of goals?

Cloke can do that.

 

[AlecDuncan]

I am not suggesting that Kruizer is a ready made forward but he does have the attributes. He is an excellent contested mark, he leads well into good spaces.

Agreed, but he's never had to do it with a full back on his hammer - and that's the difference between a (fantastic) ruckman who works forward and forward who starts in the goal-square. I've seen nothing to indicate that he's that type of player.

 

[Blue since 72]

I believe our first realistic chance at a premiership is 2011. Assuming no significant injuries to key personal that year and substantially the same list I reckon the boy's will be ready physically and mentally.
Developmentally I believe our young prime movers; ie Murph, Gibbs, Krueze, AJ, Robbo, Hammer, Grigg, are being fast tracked quite well in terms of games played and physical sizing and young guns like Yazza and Geoffrey should be ready to explode with two full pre seasons behind them.

We'll have a nice blend of youth (the above and others) and experience (Judd, Thornton, Waite, Hadley, Betts, Carrazzo, Armfield, Russell, Walker, Simo) and the backline should and must be well settled.

 

[Go_Blues!]

Agreed, but he's never had to do it with a full back on his hammer - and that's the difference between a (fantastic) ruckman who works forward and forward who starts in the goal-square. I've seen nothing to indicate that he's that type of player.

Agree, but don't you think he could?

 

[AlecDuncan]

Agree, but don't you think he could?

It's possible, but I haven't seen it in 2 years, and unless I do I won't be banking on it.

There's a difference between faith and delusion.

People here also seem to be banking a lot on Waite returning from a knee reconstruction and immediately starring. We have no idea yet if he'll ever be the player he was before the injury, and most players who do get back to 100% take twelve months of football to do it.